Economic Evaluation of the Megadrought

PROJECT

The Center for Climate and Resilience Science CR2, with support from the Vice-Rectorate for Research and Development at the University of Chile, has organized a series of three presentations during 2021 to learn about international experience in economic evaluation of droughts and other extreme climate events. The central idea is to gain first-hand knowledge of impact assessment strategies for these types of phenomena, including their methodological aspects, scope, and limitations.

Each one-hour seminar features a presentation by a leading researcher in these areas, followed by a question, answer, and comment session. We believe that the experience gained in other places that have also suffered droughts is a relevant input for the national community to advance in evaluating the megadrought and help us better face the adaptation challenges posed by climate change.

COORDINATORS

René Garreaud
Deputy Director CR2
Academic at the University of Chile

Felipe Vásquez
Researcher CR2
Academic at the Universidad del Desarrollo

CONTEXT

The decade 2010-2020 has been the longest dry period in the historical record of central Chile, with very few analogs in reconstructions of the last millennium. Annual deficits fluctuated around 30%, but in 2019, the deficit exceeded 80% in much of this area. The so-called megadrought also coincides with a period of high temperatures, exacerbating the water deficit. This is evident in the decrease in river flows, the decline in groundwater levels, the disappearance of some freshwater bodies, and the reduction of snow cover.

The hydroclimatic megadrought has increased water insecurity for the population – especially rural – and generated negative impacts on natural flora and fauna as well as various economic sectors, including forestry and agriculture, electricity generation, and mining.

Climate projections for central Chile indicate drier and warmer conditions for the rest of the 21st century, so the effects of the megadrought should be used to anticipate and evaluate the impact of climate change in our country. However, we still do not have a quantitative, national, and multisectoral assessment of these effects. This is certainly a complex task due to the simultaneous occurrence of other socio-environmental phenomena and data limitations, but it is a priority to design optimal adaptation strategies in the face of ongoing climate change.

SEMINAR SCHEDULE

“Economic Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers in the Western United States”

Dr. Thomas Corringham
Research Economist, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego.

“Economic Consequences of Drought: Another View”

Dr. Michael Hanemann
W. P. Carey School of Business and a Julie A. Wrigley Chair in Sustainability in the School of Sustainability at Arizona State University.
Emeritus Professor of Department of Agricultural and Resources Economics, University of California Berkeley.

Download PDF

“Economic Estimation of the Drought in California”

Dr. Josué Medellín-Azuara
Associate Professor, Water Systems Management Lab, University of California Merced.

ORGANIZED BY