| Protecting environmental flows to achieve long-term water security | Alvarez-Garreton C.; Boisier J.P.; Billi M.; Lefort I.; Marinao R.; Barría P. | Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116914 | In this work, we propose a new approach to diagnose if a water allocation scheme is compatible with long-term water security at the catchment scale, and suggest steps to achieve such compatibility. We argue that when the remaining flow of a river after upstream withdrawals is not sufficient to safeguarding ecological river functions, the basin is at extreme risk of water scarcity, which indicates that the water management is failing. To test this, we analysed the water scarcity risks and the safeguarded environmental flows (e-flows) in 277 basins across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions in Chile (17–55°S). For each basin, water scarcity risks were assessed based on water stress indices (WSIs, computed as the ratio of withdrawals to water availability), considering two water-use scenarios: (i) WSImax, where total withdrawals correspond to the maximum consumptive water allowed by the law, i.e., where only the e-flows protected by law remain in the river, and (ii) WSIalloc, where total withdrawals correspond to the actual allocated consumptive water uses within the basins. Further, we evaluated the adequacy of the water management system to protect ecological river functions by contrasting the e-flows protected in Chile with those safeguarded in six other countries. The water allocation system in Chile incorporated the protection of minimum e-flows in 2005 and established that these do not exceed 20% of the mean annual streamflow, except in some exceptional cases. This upper limit is consistently lower than the e-flows safeguarded in other countries, where 20%–80% of the mean annual streamflow are protected. This turns out in WSImax values between 80% and 100% in all basins, well above the threshold associated with over-committed basins under extreme risk of water scarcity (70% typically). When moving from the legally allowed to the actually allocated water use scenario, we found contrasting results: about 70% of the basins show low water scarcity risk (WSIalloc <40%), while an 18% have WSIalloc above 100%, indicating the allocation is going beyond current law limits and even beyond physical limits. Our results reveal that the link between e-flows, water allocation and water security has not been adequately incorporated in the current law. E-flows stipulated by law are insufficient to fulfil environmental requirements, while placing the basins under extreme risk of water scarcity if the total allowed withdrawals were exerted. To move towards a system that can effectively achieve long-term water security, we recommend: (i) To define tolerable water scarcity risks for basins, considering environmental requirements. (ii) To translate those risks into measurable basin indices to measure water security, such as the WSI. (iii) To set maximum water use limits (or minimum e-flows) within the basins that are compatible to the water security goals. If, under current and projected water availability conditions, the existing withdrawals exceed these limits, water managers should be able to adapt total consumption to the required limits. © 2022 The Authors | Journal of Environmental Management | 03014797 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301479722024872 | art116914 | 328 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; forecasting; rivers; water supply; chile; river water; water; catchment; climate change; resource allocation; streamflow; water availability; water management; water stress; water use; article; catchment area (hydrology); chile; climate change; environmental protection; risk assessment; river ecosystem; water availability; water flow; water insecurity; water management; water quality; water stress; water supply; forecasting; river; water supply, climate change; environmental flows; water allocation; water management; water security | Center for Climate and Resilience Research CR2, FONDAP 15110009, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Rural Management and Innovation, Faculty of Agronomical Sciences, University of Chile, Chile; Núcleo de Estudios Sistémicos Transdisciplinarios (NEST.R3), Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile |
| Climatic control of the surface mass balance of the Patagonian Icefields | Carrasco-Escaff T.; Rojas M.; Garreaud R.D.; Bozkurt D.; Schaefer M. | Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.5194/tc-17-1127-2023 | The Patagonian Icefields (Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefield) are the largest ice masses in the Andes Cordillera. Despite its importance, little is known about the main mechanisms that underpin the interaction between these ice masses and climate. Furthermore, the nature of large-scale climatic control over the surface mass variations of the Patagonian Icefields still remains unclear. The main aim of this study is to understand the present-day climatic control of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Patagonian Icefields at interannual timescales, especially considering large-scale processes. We modeled the present-day (1980-2015) glacioclimatic surface conditions for the southern Andes Cordillera by statistically downscaling the output from a regional climate model (RegCMv4) from a 10km spatial resolution to a 450m resolution grid and then using the downscaled fields as input for a simplified SMB model. Series of spatially averaged modeled fields over the Patagonian Icefields were used to derive regression and correlation maps against fields of climate variables from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Years of relatively high SMB are associated with the establishment of an anomalous low-pressure center near the Drake Passage, the Drake low, that induces an anomalous cyclonic circulation accompanied with enhanced westerlies impinging on the Patagonian Icefields, which in turn leads to increases in the precipitation and the accumulation over the icefields. Also, the Drake low is thermodynamically maintained by a core of cold air that tends to reduce the ablation. Years of relatively low SMB are associated with the opposite conditions. We found low dependence of the SMB on main atmospheric modes of variability (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode), revealing a poor ability of the associated indices to reproduce the interannual variability of the SMB. Instead, this study highlights the Drake Passage as a key region that has the potential to influence the SMB variability of the Patagonian Icefields. © 2023 The Author(s). | Cryosphere | 19940416 | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1127-2023 | 1127-1149 | 17 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, aisen; andes; chile; drake passage; northern patagonian ice field; southern patagonian ice field; annual variation; climate modeling; el nino-southern oscillation; ice field; mass balance; precipitation (climatology) | Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Meteorology, University of Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Instituto de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile |
| The impact of local and climate change drivers on the formation, dynamics, and potential recurrence of a massive fish-killing microalgal bloom in Patagonian fjord | Díaz P.A.; Pérez-Santos I.; Basti L.; Garreaud R.; Pinilla E.; Barrera F.; Tello A.; Schwerter C.; Arenas-Uribe S.; Soto-Riquelme C.; Navarro P.; Díaz M.; Álvarez G.; Linford P.M.; Altamirano R.; Mancilla-Gutiérrez G.; Rodríguez-Villegas C.; Figueroa R.I. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161288 | Harmful algal blooms (HABs) in southern Chile are a serious threat to public health, tourism, artisanal fisheries, and aquaculture in this region. Ichthyotoxic HAB species have recently become a major annual threat to the Chilean salmon farming industry, due to their severe economic impacts. In early austral autumn 2021, an intense bloom of the raphidophyte Heterosigma akashiwo was detected in Comau Fjord, Chilean Patagonia, resulting in a high mortality of farmed salmon (nearly 6000 tons of biomass) within 15 days. H. akashiwo cells were first detected at the head of the fjord on March 16, 2021 (up to 478 cells mL−1). On March 31, the cell density at the surface had reached a maximum of 2 × 105 cells mL−1, with intense brown spots visible on the water surface. Strong and persistent high-pressure anomalies over the southern tip of South America, consistent with the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), resulted in extremely dry conditions, high solar radiation, and strong southerly winds. A coupling of these features with the high water retention times inside the fjord can explain the spatial-temporal dynamics of this bloom event. Other factors, such as the internal local physical uplift process (favored by the north-to-south orientation of the fjord), salt-fingering events, and the uplift of subantarctic deep-water renewal, likely resulted in the injection of nutrients into the euphotic layer, which in turn could have promoted cell growth and thus high microalgal cell densities, such as reached by the bloom. © 2022 Elsevier B.V. | Science of the Total Environment | 00489697 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969722083929 | art161288 | 865 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | biogeochemistry; brown tide; climate anomalies; nw chilean patagonia; salmon mortality; southern annular mode (sam); upwelling, animals; chile; climate change; estuaries; harmful algal bloom; microalgae; salmon; water; chile; comau fjord; los lagos; patagonia; climate change; farms; health risks; dissolved oxygen; water; brown tide; cell density; climate anomalies; harmful algal blooms; nw chilean patagonium; patagonia; salmon mortality; southern annular mode; upwelling; algal bloom; biogeochemistry; brown tide; climate change; fjord; microaggregate; mortality; salmonid fishery; spatiotemporal analysis; upwelling; water retention; algal bloom; article; autumn; biogeochemistry; biomass; brown spot; cell density; cell growth; chemical oxygen demand; chile; climate change; fish; heterosigma akashiwo; marine environment; medieval warm period; microbial community; mortality; nonhuman; particulate matter; phytoplankton; public health; river; salmonine; sea surface temperature; south america; water residence time; algal bloom; animal; climate change; estuary; microalga; cell proliferation | Centro i~mar, Universidad de Los Lagos, Casilla 557, Puerto Montt, Chile; CeBiB, Universidad de Los Lagos, Casilla 557, Puerto Montt, Chile; Center for Oceanographic Research COPAS Sur-Austral and COPAS COASTAL, Universidad de Concepción, Chile; Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia (CIEP), Coyhaique, Chile; Faculty of Marine Environment and Resources, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Tokyo, 108-8477, Japan; College of Agriculture and Veterinary Science, Department of Integrative Agriculture, United Arab Emirates University, Abu Dhabi, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Región Metropolitana, Santiago, 8370449, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2), Universidad de Chile, Chile; Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (IFOP), Putemún, Castro, Chile; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maine, 5711 Boardman Hall, Orono, ME, United States; Salmones Camanchaca S.A., Puerto Montt, Chile; Instituto de Acuicultura & Programa de Investigación Pesquera, Universidad Austral de Chile, Los Pinos s/n, Puerto Montt, Chile; Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Departamento de Acuicultura, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo, 1281, Chile; Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo Tecnológico en Algas (CIDTA), Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Católica del Norte, Larrondo 1281, Coquimbo, Chile; Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo, Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Vigo, ... |
| From lipophilic to hydrophilic toxin producers: Phytoplankton succession driven by an atmospheric river in western Patagonia | Díaz P.A.; Álvarez G.; Figueroa R.I.; Garreaud R.; Pérez-Santos I.; Schwerter C.; Díaz M.; López L.; Pinto-Torres M.; Krock B. | Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115214 | Phytoplankton succession is related to hydroclimatic conditions. In this study we provide the first description of a toxic phytoplankton succession in the Patagonian Fjord System. The shift was modulated by atmospheric-oceanographic forcing and consisted of the replacement of the marine dinoflagellate Dinophysis acuta in a highly stratified water column during austral summer by the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia calliantha in a mixed water column during late summer and early autumn. This transition, accompanied by a change in the biotoxin profiles (from lipophilic dinophysis toxins to hydrophilic domoic acid), was induced by the arrival of an intense atmospheric river. The winds in Magdalena Sound may have been further amplified, due to its west-east orientation and its location within a tall, narrow mountain canyon. This work also documents the first known appearance of toxic P. calliantha in Northern Patagonian. The potential impacts of the biotoxins of this species on higher trophic levels are discussed. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd | Marine Pollution Bulletin | 0025326X | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115214 | art115214 | 193 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, amnesic shellfish poisoning; domoic acid; hydro-climatic modulation; lipophilic toxins; patagonian fjord system; pseudo-nitzschia calliantha | Centro i~mar, Universidad de Los Lagos, Casilla 557, Puerto Montt, Chile; CeBiB, Universidad de Los Lagos, Casilla 557, Puerto Montt, Chile; Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Departamento de Acuicultura, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo, 1281, Chile; Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo Tecnológico en Algas (CIDTA), Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Católica del Norte, Larrondo 1281, Coquimbo, Chile; Center for Ecology and Sustainable Management of Oceanic Islands (ESMOI), Departamento de Biología Marina, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo, Chile; Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo, Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Vigo, Spain; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2), Universidad de Chile, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Región Metropolitana, Santiago, 8370449, Chile; Centro de Investigación Oceanográfica COPAS COASTAL, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia (CIEP), Coyhaique, Chile; Instituto de Acuicultura, Programa de Investigación Pesquera, Universidad Austral de Chile, Los Pinos S/N, Puerto Montt, Chile; Centro de Estudios de Algas Nocivas (CREAN), Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (IFOP), Padre Harter 574, Puerto Montt, Chile; Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias de la Acuicultura, Universidad Austral de Chile, Los Pinos S/N, Puerto Montt, Chile; Centro FONDAP de Investigación de Ecosistemas de Altas Latitudes (IDEAL), Univer... |
| Chilean long-term Socio-Ecological Research Network: progresses and challenges towards improving stewardship of unique ecosystems: Red Chilena de Investigación Socio-Ecológica de Largo Plazo: Avances y desafíos para el manejo responsable de ecosistemas únicos | Frêne C.; Armesto J.J.; Nespolo R.F.; Gaxiola A.; Navarrete S.A.; Troncoso A.; Muñoz A.; Corcuera L.J. | Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.1186/s40693-023-00114-4 | Ecosystems provide a variety of benefits to human society and humanity’s utilization of ecosystems affects their composition, structure, and functions. Global change drivers demand us to study the interactions between ecological and social systems, and advise strategies to protect the large fraction of Chilean unique ecosystems. Long-term research and monitoring are vital for meaningful understanding of human impacts and socio-ecological feedback, which occur over multiple spatial and time-scales and can be invisible to traditional grant-sponsored short-term studies. Despite the large fraction of unique ecosystems, Chilean government agencies have not established long-term monitoring programs to inform and guide management decisions for use, conservation, and adaptation to climate change. Responding to this void, the Chilean Long-Term Socio-Ecological Research Network (LTSER-Chile) was created, comprising nine study sites funded by a variety of private and public institutions, that broadly seeks to understand how global change is altering biodiversity and ecosystem functions. The LTSER-Chile is currently in a phase of institutional consolidation to achieve its objectives of alignment with international efforts, fill the need for high-quality, long-term data on social, biological and physical components of Chilean ecosystems, and develop itself as an open research platform for the world. Despite the wide diversity of ecosystems ecncompased by LTSER-Chile sites, several common variables are monitored, especially climatic and hydrographic variables and many ecological indicator variables that consider temporal fluctuations, population and community dynamics. The main challenges currently facing the LTSER-Chile are to secure funding to maintain existing long-term monitoring programs, to persuade public and private decision-makers about its central role in informing and anticipating socio-ecological problems, and to achieve greater ecosystem representation by integrating new long-term study sites. This will require a more decisive political commitment of the State, to improve the stewardship of our unique terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and the realization that sound ecologically-sustainable policies will never be possible without a national monitoring network. We argue that the State should build on LTSER and several other private and university initiatives to provide the country with a monitoring network. In the absence of this commitment, the LTSER system is subject to discontinuity and frequent interruptions, which jeopardizes the long-term effort to understand the functioning of nature and its biodiversity. © 2023, The Author(s). | Revista Chilena de Historia Natural | 0716078X | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40693-023-00114-4 | art1 | 96 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | long-term studies; social systems; terrestrial and marine ecosystems, nan | Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Millenium Nucleus of Patagonian Limit of Life (LiLi) and Millennium Institute for Integrative Biology (iBio), Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, P. Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Departamento de Ecología, Santiago, Chile; Estación Costera de Investigaciones Marinas, Las Cruces, Coastal Socieo-Ecological Millenium Istitute (SECOS), Millenium Nucleus for Ecology and Conservation of Temperate Mesophotic Reef Ecosystems (NUTME) and Centro Basal COPAS-COASTAL, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Biología, Universidad de La Serena, Coquimbo, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Fundación San Ignacio del Huinay, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia, Santiago, Chile; Fundación Parque Katalapi, Puerto Montt, Chile |
| Earth system justice needed to identify and live within Earth system boundaries | Gupta J.; Liverman D.; Prodani K.; Aldunce P.; Bai X.; Broadgate W.; Ciobanu D.; Gifford L.; Gordon C.; Hurlbert M.; Inoue C.Y.A.; Jacobson L.; Kanie N.; Lade S.J.; Lenton T.M.; Obura D.; Okereke C.; Otto I.M.; Pereira L.; Rockström J.; Scholtens J.; Rocha J.; Stewart-Koster B.; David Tàbara J.; Rammelt C.; Verburg P.H. | Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.1038/s41893-023-01064-1 | Living within planetary limits requires attention to justice as biophysical boundaries are not inherently just. Through collaboration between natural and social scientists, the Earth Commission defines and operationalizes Earth system justice to ensure that boundaries reduce harm, increase well-being, and reflect substantive and procedural justice. Such stringent boundaries may also affect ‘just access’ to food, water, energy and infrastructure. We show how boundaries may need to be adjusted to reduce harm and increase access, and challenge inequality to ensure a safe and just future for people, other species and the planet. Earth system justice may enable living justly within boundaries. © 2023, Springer Nature Limited. | Nature Sustainability | 23989629 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01064-1 | 630-638 | 6 | Thomson Reuters SCIE, SSCI | nan, earth systems; natural scientists; planetary limits; procedural justice; social scientists; stringents; system boundary; water infrastructure; well being; well reflects | University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; University of Chile and Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Future Earth Global Hub Sweden, Stockholm, Sweden; Institute for Environment and Sanitations Studies, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana; Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada; Radboud University, Nijmegen, Netherlands; Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, Kanagawa, Fujisawa, Japan; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; CORDIO East Africa, Mombasa, Kenya; Centre for Climate Change and Development, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ebony State, Abakaliki, Nigeria; Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria; Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany; Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland |
| Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts | Kreibich H.; Schröter K.; Di Baldassarre G.; Van Loon A.F.; Mazzoleni M.; Abeshu G.W.; Agafonova S.; Aghakouchak A.; Aksoy H.; Alvarez-Garreton C.; Aznar B.; Balkhi L.; Barendrecht M.H.; Biancamaria S.; Bos-Burgering L.; Bradley C.; Budiyono Y.; Buytaert W.; Capewell L.; Carlson H.; Cavus Y.; Couasnon A.; Coxon G.; Daliakopoulos I.; De Ruiter M.C.; Delus C.; Erfurt M.; Esposito G.; François D.; Frappart F.; Freer J.; Frolova N.; Gain A.K.; Grillakis M.; Grima J.O.; Guzmán D.A.; Huning L.S.; Ioni... | Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023 | As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, 10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001). © 2023 Heidi Kreibich et al. | Earth System Science Data | 18663508 | https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023 | 2009-2023 | 15 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | | Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany; Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX, United States; Department of Land Hydrology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States; Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), FONDAP 1522A0001, Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Operations Department, Barcelona Cicle de l'Aigua SA, Barcelona, Spain; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada; LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France; Department of Groundwater Management, Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; School of Geography Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Jakarta, Indonesia; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Civil Engineering, Beykent University, Istanbul, Turkey; Graduate School, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey; Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Fr... |
| Recent Deoxygenation of Patagonian Fjord Subsurface Waters Connected to the Peru–Chile Undercurrent and Equatorial Subsurface Water Variability | Linford P.; Pérez-Santos I.; Montes I.; Dewitte B.; Buchan S.; Narváez D.; Saldías G.; Pinilla E.; Garreaud R.; Díaz P.; Schwerter C.; Montero P.; Rodríguez-Villegas C.; Cáceres-Soto M.; Mancilla-Gutiérrez G.; Altamirano R. | Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.1029/2022GB007688 | In recent decades, global dissolved oxygen (DO) measurements have registered a decrease of ∼1%–2% in oxygen content, raising concerns regarding the negative impacts of ocean deoxygenation on marine life and the greenhouse gas cycle. By combining in situ data from 2016 to 2022, satellite remote sensing, and outputs from a physical-biogeochemical model, we revealed the deoxygenation process in the Patagonian fjords for the first time. Deoxygenation was associated with the advection of equatorial subsurface water (ESSW) mass into the northern region of Patagonia. An analysis of the circulation regime using the Mercator-Ocean global high-resolution model confirmed the importance of the Peru–Chile undercurrent (PCUC) in transporting the ESSW poleward, contributing to the entrance of ESSW into the northern Patagonian fjords. A mooring system installed in the water interchange area between the Pacific Ocean and Patagonian fjords detected a decreasing DO of −21.66 μmol L−1 over 7 years, which was explained by the increase in PCUC transport of 1.46 Sv. Inside the Puyuhuapi fjord system, a second DO time series exhibited more marked deoxygenation with −88.6 μmol L−1 over 3 years linked with the influence of ESSW and local processes, such as DO consumption by the organic matter degradation. The recent deoxygenation registered in the northern Patagonian fjords demonstrates the significance of studying DO in the context of reducing the global oxygen content, further warranting the quantification of the impacts of deoxygenation on life cycles of marine organisms that inhabit the Patagonian fjords and channels and the Humboldt current system. © 2023. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. | Global Biogeochemical Cycles | 08866236 | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GB007688 | arte2022GB007688 | 37 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, biogeochemical model; deoxygenation; equatorial dynamics; hypoxia; patagonian fjords; water masses | Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias, Mención Conservación y Manejo de Recursos Naturales, Universidad de los Lagos, Puerto Montt, Chile; Centro i-mar de la Universidad de los Lagos, Puerto Montt, Chile; Center for Oceanographic Research COPAS Sur-Austral and COPAS COASTAL, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia (CIEP), Coyhaique, Chile; Instituto de Geofísica del Perú (IGP), Lima, Peru; Centro de Estudios Avanzado en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), Coquimbo, Chile; Departamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo, Chile; Millennium Nucleus for Ecology and Sustainable Management of Oceanic Islands (ESMOI), Coquimbo, Chile; CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS, Toulouse, France; Department of Oceanography, University of Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States; Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad del Bío-Bío, Concepción, Chile; Instituto Milenio en Socio-Ecología Costera (SECOS), Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (IFOP), CTPA-Putemún, Castro, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2), Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; CeBiB, Universidad de Los Lagos, Puerto Montt, Chile; Servicio Hidrográfico y Oceanográfico Armada (SHOA), Valparaíso, Chile |
| Extreme harmful algal blooms, climate change, and potential risk of eutrophication in Patagonian fjords: Insights from an exceptional Heterosigma akashiwo fish-killing event | Mardones J.I.; Paredes-Mella J.; Flores-Leñero A.; Yarimizu K.; Godoy M.; Artal O.; Corredor-Acosta A.; Marcus L.; Cascales E.; Pablo Espinoza J.; Norambuena L.; Garreaud R.D.; González H.E.; Iriarte J.L. | Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.1016/j.pocean.2022.102921 | The Patagonian fjords have experienced intense harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the last decade, affecting important aquaculture areas in southern Chile. Climatic anomalies have recently triggered ‘super blooms’ of opportunistic toxic microalgal genera, especially due to persistent thermal stratification which likely provides an optimal niche for HABs development in fjord systems. In March-April 2021, an intense and widespread bloom of the raphidophyte Heterosigma akashiwo caused high salmon mortalities (>6,000 t) in the Comau fjord, Los Lagos Region. A climate variability analysis showed the effects of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM > 1.2 hPa) overcame those of La Niña (Niño3.4 = -0.9 °C) leading to an intense drought on the northern part of Patagonia with record low rainfall (the 2nd driest summer in the last 70 years) and increased water temperature. A regional satellite analysis revealed an extreme and persistent shallow Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) during summer periods since 2019 within the inland seas. In situ vertical fine-resolution measurements during the bloom event showed high cell abundances in the first 3 m of the water column (max. ∼ 70,000 cells mL−1), associated with warmer water temperature (∼15.5 – 17.5 °C), low salinity (∼25–30 psu), moderate to high dissolved oxygen (5 – 8.5 mg/L) and extremely high fluorescence signals in dense superficial cell aggregations (max. 74.9 µg/L). A 18S rRNA metabarcoding analysis formally confirmed the presence of H. akashiwo and its almost monospecific bloom development at the water surface. HPLC pigment analysis showed the carotenoid fucoxanthin in high proportion (48.8 %) compared to other photosynthetic pigments, becoming a potential pigment biomarker for early satellite H. akashiwo detection. Cell growth and cytotoxic in vitro experiments revealed high phenotypic plasticity of Chilean H. akashiwo against sudden changes in salinity. An RTgill-W1 gill cell assay revealed high cytotoxic activity (viability down to ∼ 50 – 30 % of controls) only at high cell abundances (>40,000H. akashiwo cells mL−1), which was in accordance with histological examination of moribund salmon that showed gill damage and circulatory disorders mainly due to long-term exposure to hypoxic conditions and not to potent cytotoxic effects. The Party-MOSA particles dispersion model revealed a high retention of water masses within the Comau fjord during the H. akashiwo outbreak, a scenario that may have boosted fish kills due to enhanced cells patchiness, ichthyotoxins persistence and hypoxic conditions. A historical dissolved inorganic nutrient data analysis showed that inner Patagonian fjords maintain low N and P concentrations including those environments considered of high eutrophication risk. Low N:P (<16:1) ratios measured at Comau fjord during the 2021 suggests that toxic flagellates growth could be favored over diatoms; however, low N:Si (<1:1 – N deficiency) evidences a clear need for better understanding of the role of mixotrophy in the persistence of the 2021H. akashiwo bloom for several weeks. These results highlight the fact that HABs responses against climate drivers and potential eutrophication are not universal and need to be assessed yearly and locally, particularly because extreme droughts and intensive aquaculture in northern Patagonia are expected to continue throughout the 21st century. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd | Progress in Oceanography | 00796611 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S007966112200180X | art102921 | 210 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | fjord́s water renewal; ichthyotoxicity; metabarcoding; nutrients; pigment signature; salmon farming, chile; los lagos; patagonia; algae control; biochemical oxygen demand; carotenoids; cell proliferation; climate change; dissolved oxygen; farms; fluorescence; nutrients; rain; rna; water temperature; cell abundance; fjord́s water renewal; harmful algal blooms; heterosigma akashiwo; ichthyotoxicity; metabarcoding; pigment signature; salmon farming; water renewal; water temperatures; algal bloom; climate change; ecotoxicology; eutrophication; extreme event; fjord; intensive culture; nutrient dynamics; pigment; risk assessment; salmonid culture; eutrophication | Centro de Estudios de Algas Nocivas (CREAN), Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (IFOP), Puerto Montt, Chile; Centro FONDAP de Investigación en Dinámica de Ecosistemas Marinos de Altas Latitudes (IDEAL), Valdivia, Chile; CAICAI Foundation, Puerto Varas, Chile; Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, Fisheries Resources Institute, Fisheries Stock Assessment Center, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Kanagawa, Yokohama, 236-8648, Japan; Office of Industry-Academia-Government and Community Collaboration, Hiroshima University, 1-3-2 22 Kagamiyama, Hiroshima, Higashi-Hiroshima City, 739-8511, Japan; Centro de Investigaciones Biológicas Aplicadas (CIBA), Puerto Montt, Chile; Laboratorio de Biotecnología Aplicada, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria, Sede de la Patagonia, Puerto Montt, 5480000, Chile; CTPA-Putemún, Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (IFOP), Castro, Chile; Department of Zoology, Faculty of Natural and Oceanographic Sciences, University of Concepción, Chile; San Ignacio del Huinay Scientific Field Station, Los Lagos, Chile; Department of Geophysics and Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Ciencias Marinas y Limnológicas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Instituto de Acuicultura, Universidad Austral de Chile, Puerto Montt, Chile; Centro de Investigación, Oceanográfica COPAS Sur-Austral, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Programa de Magíster en Oceanografía, Escuela de Ciencias del Mar, Facultad de ... |
| Drought increase since the mid-20th century in the northern South American Altiplano revealed by a 389-year precipitation record | Morales M.S.; Crispín-Delacruz D.B.; Álvarez C.; Christie D.A.; Eugenia Ferrero M.; Andreu-Hayles L.; Villalba R.; Guerra A.; Ticse-Otarola G.; Rodríguez-Ramírez E.C.; Llocclla-Martínez R.; Sanchez-Ferrer J.; Requena-Rojas E.J. | Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.5194/cp-19-457-2023 | Given the short span of instrumental precipitation records in the South American Altiplano, longer-term hydroclimatic records are needed to understand the nature of climate variability and to improve the predictability of precipitation, a key natural resource for the socioeconomic development in the Altiplano and adjacent arid lowlands. In this region grows Polylepis tarapacana, a long-lived tree species that is very sensitive to hydroclimatic changes and has been widely used for tree-ring studies in the central and southern Altiplano. However, in the northern sector of the Peruvian and Chilean Altiplano (16-19°S) still exists a gap of high-resolution hydroclimatic data based on tree-ring records. Our study provides an overview of the temporal evolution of the late-spring-mid-summer precipitation for the period 1625-2013 CE at the northern South American Altiplano, allowing for the identification of wet or dry periods based on a regional reconstruction from three P. tarapacana chronologies. An increase in the occurrence of extreme dry events, together with a decreasing trend in the reconstructed precipitation, has been recorded since the 1970s in the northern Altiplano within the context of the last ∼4 centuries. The average precipitation over the last 17 years stands out as the driest in our 389-year reconstruction. We reveal a temporal and spatial synchrony across the Altiplano region of dry conditions since the mid-1970s. Independent tree-ring-based hydroclimate reconstructions and several paleoclimatic records based on other proxies available for the tropical Andes record this synchrony. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the northern Altiplano precipitation was detected by our rainfall reconstruction that showed past drier conditions in our study region associated with ENSO warm events. The spectral properties of the rainfall reconstruction showed strong imprints of ENSO variability at decadal, sub-decadal, and inter-annual timescales, in particular from the Pacific NIÑO 3 sector. Overall, the recent reduction in precipitation in comparison with previous centuries, the increase in extreme dry events and the coupling between precipitation and ENSO variability reported by this work is essential information in the context of the growing demand for water resources in the Altiplano. This study will contribute to a better understanding of the vulnerability and resilience of the region to the projected evapotranspiration increase for the 21st century associated with global warming. © 2023 Mariano S. Morales et al. | Climate of the Past | 18149324 | https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/457/2023/ | 457-476 | 19 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, andes; south america; chronology; climate variation; drought; el nino-southern oscillation; evapotranspiration; global warming; hydrometeorology; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; reconstruction; tree ring; twentieth century | Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental, Huancayo, 12000, Peru; Instituto Argentino de Nivología Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales, Conicet, Mendoza, 5500, Argentina; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5110566, Chile; Escuela de Graduados, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5110566, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, 9160000, Chile; Cape Horn International Center (CHIC), Punta Arenas, 6200000, Chile; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York, 10964, NY, United States; Creaf, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola Del Vallés), Barcelona, 08193, Spain; Icrea, Pg. Lluís Companys 23, Barcelona, 08010, Spain; Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Del Medio Ambiente, Universidad Nacional Del Centro Del Perú, Huancayo, 12006, Peru; Departamento de Biologia, Instituto de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, 37203-202, Brazil; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Florestais, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Recife, 52171-900, Brazil; Programa de Investigación de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Asociación Andinus, Huancayo, 12002, Peru |
| Fires and rates of change in the temperate rainforests of northwestern Patagonia since ∼18 ka | Moreno P.I.; Méndez C.; Henríquez C.A.; Fercovic E.I.; Videla J.; Reyes O.; Villacís L.A.; Villa-Martínez R.; Alloway B.V. | Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107899 | We examine the temporal and spatial structure of wildfires and rates of vegetation change in the Pacific sector of northwestern Patagonia (40°-44°S) over the last ∼18,000 years. Macroscopic Charcoal Accumulation Rates (CHAR), a proxy of past local fires, shows a geographic variation that mirrors the modern north-to-south and low-to-high elevation increase in annual precipitation and decrease in precipitation seasonality, and the frequency of explosive volcanic events. Variability in past fires is evident at multiple timescales, with a significant multi-millennial low between ∼18–13.1 ka, an abrupt rise between ∼13.1–12.5 ka, and heightened fire activity between ∼11.4–8.2 ka with significant high values between ∼10–9.4 ka. A subsequent decline led to the lowest Holocene values between ∼6–5.4 ka, which rose and led to significant high values between ∼3.1 ka and the present. Andean and Western Upwind Environments share a multi-millennial structure of fire activity since ∼18 ka, overprinted by millennial and centennial-scale divergences. These differences underscore the role of explosive volcanism as a trigger or modulator of fire activity in the vicinity of Andean eruptive centers. We posit that fire activity in Western Upwind Environments was driven primarily by hydroclimate variations, namely changes in the intensity of the Southern Westerly Winds. Compilations of CHAR and the Rates of Change (ROC) parameter, a measure of the magnitude and rapidity of changes in the pollen records, covary during the onset of the interglacial fire regime at ∼13.1 ka and the last ∼4000 years, suggesting that fires catalyzed vegetation changes during specific intervals since the last glaciation. Highly mobile human occupations deployed along the coasts started at ∼6.2 ka, increased in pulses, and spread widely during the last two millennia. Covariation with CHAR and ROC since ∼4 ka suggests that hunter-gatherer-fishers contributed to enhanced fire activity and abrupt vegetation changes at regional scale. The ubiquitous fire maximum over the last four centuries relates to widespread settlement and associated large-scale land clearance conducted by European/Chilean settlers. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd | Quaternary Science Reviews | 02773791 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379122005303 | art107899 | 300 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chilean/european settlers; explosive volcanism; human occupations; macroscopic charcoal accumulation rates; northwestern patagonia; rates of vegetation change; southern westerly winds; temperate rainforests, pacific sector; patagonia; southern ocean; explosives; fires; glacial geology; vegetation; accumulation rates; chilean/european settler; explosive volcanism; human occupation; macroscopic charcoal accumulation rate; northwestern patagonium; patagonia; rate of vegetation change; southern westerly winds; temperate rainforest; vegetation change; charcoal; explosive volcanism; fire; geographical variation; holocene; interglacial; occupation; rainforest; temperate forest; westerly; charcoal | Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Investigación en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia, Coyhaique, Chile; Centro de Estudios del Hombre Austral, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; Centro de Investigación GAIA-Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Volatile organic compounds measured by proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry over the complex terrain of Quintero Bay, Central Chile | Seguel R.J.; Garreaud R.; Muñoz R.; Bozkurt D.; Gallardo L.; Opazo C.; Jorquera H.; Castillo L.; Menares C. | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 2023 | 10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121759 | This research provides new evidence regarding the different kinds of air quality episodes, and their underlying mechanisms, that frequently impact the urban area of Quintero Bay in Central Chile, which is located along complex coastal terrain and is surrounded by industries. The monitoring campaign was carried out in January 2022 and encompassed two distinctive meteorological regimes. The first part of the month was dominated by a coastal low centered to the south of Quintero, which resulted in prevailing northerly flow (or weak southerlies) and a deep cloud-topped marine boundary layer. After a 2–3-day transition, the latter collapsed, and a clear-sky regime ensued, which was characterized by a shallow boundary layer and strong southerly winds during the daytime that lasted until the end of the campaign. By using proton transfer reaction time of flight mass spectrometry (PTR–TOF–MS) at a high temporal resolution (1 s), we measured high levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during air quality episodes in real time. The episodes detected were associated with different prevailing meteorological regimes, suggesting that different point sources were involved. In the first episode, propene/cyclopropane, butenes, benzene, toluene and ethylbenzene/xylenes were associated with north and northwesterly weak winds. Complaints associated with hydrocarbon odor were reported. The pollution originated from industrial and petrochemical units located to the north of Quintero, which transport and store natural gas, liquified petroleum gas and oil. The second episode was linked to an oil refinery located south of our measurement site. In this case, high levels of phenol, furan and cresols occurred under strong southwesterly winds. During this event, headaches and dizziness were reported. By contrast, the levels of other aromatic compounds (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene/xylenes) were lower than in the first air pollution episode. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd | Environmental Pollution | 02697491 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0269749123007613 | art121759 | 330 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | air pollutants; bays; benzene; chile; environmental monitoring; mass spectrometry; protons; toluene; volatile organic compounds; xylenes; chile; quintero bay; valparaiso [chile]; air quality; benzene; boundary layers; ethylbenzene; mass spectrometry; meteorology; petroleum transportation; proton transfer; toluene; wind; aromatic compound; benzene; cresol; cyclopropane; ethylbenzene; furan; natural gas; oil; petroleum derivative; phenol; propylene; toluene; volatile organic compound; xylene; benzene; proton; toluene; volatile organic compound; xylene; air quality episode; central chile; clear sky; coastal terrain; complex terrains; marine boundary layers; proton transfer reactions; proton-transfer reaction mass spectrometries; sacrifice zone; urban areas; air quality; atmospheric pollution; benzene; coastal zone; complex terrain; mass spectrometry; pollutant source; pollution monitoring; reaction kinetics; toluene; topographic effect; urban area; volatile organic compound; wind field; air pollutant; air pollution; air quality; article; chile; controlled study; dizziness; headache; limit of detection; mass spectrometry; meteorology; oil industry; particulate matter 2.5; proton transport; reaction time; semiarid climate; time of flight mass spectrometry; urban area; air pollutant; bay; environmental monitoring; mass spectrometry; procedures; volatile organic compounds, air quality episodes; benzene; proton transfer reaction; sacrifice zone; toluene; volatile organic compounds | Santiago, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Meteorology, University of Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Oceanographic Research COPAS COASTAL, University of Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Ingeniería Química y Bioprocesos, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable (CEDEUS), Chile |
| Ecosystem services of Chilean sclerophyllous forests and shrublands on the verge of collapse: A review | Smith-Ramírez C.; Grez A.; Galleguillos M.; Cerda C.; Ocampo-Melgar A.; Miranda M.D.; Muñoz A.A.; Rendón-Funes A.; Díaz I.; Cifuentes C.; Alaniz A.; Seguel O.; Ovalle J.; Montenegro G.; Saldes-Cortés A.; Martínez-Harms M.J.; Armesto J.J.; Vita A. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2022.104927 | Dryland forests are the areas most threatened by climate change, urbanization and land-use change simultaneously. Ecosystem services provided by Mediterranean dryland forests are have been in steep decline, and are extensively studied in the Mediterranean basin, however considerably less in other areas with Mediterranean climates. Knowledge of these services is necessary for the promotion of their conservation and restoration. Here, we synthesize current knowledge regarding the main ecosystem services provided by Chilean Mediterranean sclerophyllous forests and shrublands (SFSh). This knowledge allows for the valuation of SFSh in order to conserve, restore and study them. We found 158 studies, including technical reports, theses, and scientific literature regarding the social and environmental benefits derived from Chilean SFSh, though many did not use the term “ecosystem services” (ES). We found data on 19 ecosystem services with four or more studies per service. ES studies in Chile increased in number a couple years after Millennium Ecosystem Assessment published its synthesis in 2005. The most frequently reported services were provisioning services, especially medicinal plants and extracts. Despite the advances in knowledge, ecosystem services of SFSh appear to be rarely quantified, most frequently using oversimplified variable indicators. Services related to animal biodiversity, such as pollination and plague control, are poorly known. In recent years social studies of perception and valuation have increased, showing people's high valuation of SFSh. Additional studies are needed especially regarding water regulation and provision, as global warming will significantly reduce water supply in Mediterranean climates. Finally, we reflect on the advances necessary to enhance conservation, restoration and adaptation of ecosystems and their benefits to people, especially considering political, social and scientific factors. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd | Journal of Arid Environments | 01401963 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140196322002221 | art104927 | 211 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; biodiversity; climate change; deciduous forest; ecosystem service; environmental assessment; global warming; land use change; literature review; medicinal plant; perception; pollination; shrubland; urbanization; water supply, cultural services; dryland forests; mediterranean forests; provision services; regulation services | Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas y Biodiversidad, Universidad de Los Lagos, Chile; Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB), Chile; Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Chile; Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias y Pecuarias, Universidad de Chile, Chile; Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Chile; Departamento de Gestión Forestal y su Medio Ambiente, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservación de la Naturaleza, Universidad de Chile, Chile; Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontificia Universidad Católica de, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Ciencia el Clima y la Resiliencia CR2, Santiago, Chile; Fundación San Ignacio del Huinay, Chile; Área de Ecología, Museo de Historia Natural Alcide d'Orbigny, Cochabamba, Bolivia; Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral, Valdivia, Chile; Departamento de Ecología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ingeniería Geográfica, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Chile; Facultad de Ciencias Agronómicas, Universidad de Chile, Chile; Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservación de la Naturaleza, Universidad de Chile, Chile; Facultad de Agronomía e Ingeniería Fores... |
| Sclerophyllous Forest Tree Growth Under the Influence of a Historic Megadrought in the Mediterranean Ecoregion of Chile | Venegas-González A.; Muñoz A.A.; Carpintero-Gibson S.; González-Reyes A.; Schneider I.; Gipolou-Zuñiga T.; Aguilera-Betti I.; Roig F.A. | Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.1007/s10021-022-00760-x | The Mediterranean-type Ecosystems of Central Chile is one of the most threatened regions in South America by global change, particularly evidenced by the historical megadrought that has occurred in central Chile since 2010. The sclerophyllous forest stands out, whose history and relationship with drought conditions has been little studied. Cryptocarya alba and Beilschmiedia miersii (Lauraceae), two large endemic trees, represent an opportunity to analyze the incidence of intense droughts in the growth of sclerophyllous forests by analyzing their tree rings. Here, we considered > 400 trees from nineteen populations of C. alba and B. miersii growing across a latitudinal gradient (32°–35° S). To study the influence of local and large-scale climatic variability on tree growth, we first grouped the sites by species and explored the relationships between tree-growth patterns of C. alba and B. miersii with temperature, precipitation, and climate water deficit (CWD). Second, we performed Principal Component Analysis to detect common modes of variability and to explore relationships between growth patterns and their relationship to Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), ENSO and SAM indices. We detected a breaking point as of 2002 at regional level, where a persistent and pronounced decrease in tree growth occurred, mainly influenced by the increase in CWD and the decrease in winter-spring rainfall. In addition, a positive (negative) relationship was showed between PC1 growth-PDSI and PC1 growth-ENSO (growth-SAM), that is, growth increases (decreases) in the same direction as PDSI and ENSO (SAM). Despite the fact that sclerophyllous populations are highly resistant to drought events, we suggest that the sclerophyllous populations studied here experienced a generalized growth decline, and possibly the natural dynamics of their forests have been altered, mainly due to the accumulating effects of the unprecedented drought since 2010. Graphical abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.] © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature. | Ecosystems | 14329840 | https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10021-022-00760-x | 344-361 | 26 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; dendroecology; drought; ecoregion; el nino-southern oscillation; endemic species; forest ecosystem; global change; growth rate; latitudinal gradient; rainfall; tree; tree ring, beilschmiedia miersii; chilean forests; cryptocarya alba; dendroecology; global change; increased drought condition; mediterranean forests; tree rings | Hémera Centro de Observación de la Tierra, Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, Camino La Pirámide 5750, Santiago, Huechuraba, Chile; Instituto de Ciencias Agroalimentarias, Animales y Ambientales (ICA3), Universidad de O’Higgins, San Fernando, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias Antárticas y Subantárticas, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; Centro Transdisciplinario de Estudios Ambientales y Desarrollo Humano Sostenible (CEAM), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental, IANIGLA-CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina |
| A freshwater diatom perspective on the evolution of the southern westerlies for the past ∼14,000 years in southwestern Patagonia | Villacís L.A.; Moreno P.I.; Vilanova I.; Henríquez C.A.; Henríquez W.I.; Villa-Martínez R.P.; Sepúlveda-Zúñiga E.A.; Maidana N.I. | Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107929 | Conflicting, even opposite interpretations on the evolution of the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) are evident in paleoenvironmental records from southwestern Patagonia since the last ice age. These divergences call for new approaches utilizing different, ideally independent indicators of paleoenvironmental/paleoclimatic change from sensitive sites in climatically relevant locations. Here we present a multidecadally resolved diatom record from Lago Cipreses (51°S), a small closed-basin lake located in a bedrock depression along the eastern foothills of the southern Patagonian Andes. The hydrological balance evolution of this isolated lake affords a direct tie with SWW intensity in a mountainous sector where zonal wind strength and local precipitation are highly correlated. We detect cold-tolerant diatoms (small fragilarioids) between ∼14-11.9 cal. ka BP followed by a shift to planktonic assemblages (Discostella pseudostelligera, Aulacoseira spp.) under warmer Holocene conditions. Diatom assemblages indicative of stratified water-column conditions (Discostella pseudostelligera, Achnanthidium aff tepidaricola, Achnanthidium sieminskae) reached their maximum stability between ∼9.1-7.4 cal. ka BP. Stronger water-column mixing is evident by an abrupt species turnover to Aulacoseira spp. between ∼7.4-3.1 cal. ka BP, superimposed on centennial-scale alternations between assemblages since ∼6.1 cal. ka BP. Cold-tolerant diatoms resurge at ∼3.1 cal. ka BP and persist until the present. Our record offers assemblage-based evidence we interpret as sub-centennial to multimillennial scale changes in hydroclimate indicative of: (i) strong SWW influence between ∼14-11.9 cal. ka BP, (ii) a transition between ∼11.9-11.3 cal. ka BP to weak SWW influence between ∼11.3-6.5 cal. ka BP, with a SWW minimum between ∼9.1-7.4 cal. ka BP, and (iii) strong SWW influence since ∼6.5 cal. ka BP, with a Holocene SWW maximum since ∼3.1 cal. ka BP. We posit that enhanced hydroclimate variability since ∼6.1 cal. ka BP attests to the onset of Southern Annular Mode-like changes at centennial-to sub-centennial timescales. We detect a remarkably coherent and synchronous response of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems at local scale since ∼14 cal. ka BP, highlighting the overriding importance of variations in SWW influence in terrestrial and aquatic environments at multiple timescales. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd | Quaternary Science Reviews | 02773791 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379122005601 | art107929 | 301 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | holocene; hydroclimate variability; paleolimnology; southern annular mode; southern westerly winds; southwestern patagonia, andes; patagonia; mixing; phytoplankton; wind; condition; freshwater diatoms; holocenes; hydroclimate variability; hydroclimates; patagonia; southern annular mode; southern westerly winds; southwestern patagonium; wind influences; assembly rule; diatom; freshwater ecosystem; holocene; hydrological regime; hydrometeorology; paleoclimate; paleoenvironment; paleolimnology; pleistocene; westerly; lakes | Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; CONICET- Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales BR., Buenos Aires, Argentina; School of Geography, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Centro de Investigación GAIA-Antártida, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Facultad de Historia, Geografía y Ciencias Política, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Biodiversidad y Biología Experimental y Aplicada, CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Departamento de Biodiversidad y Biología Experimental, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina |
| High resolution urban climatic risk impact maps in Gran Valparaiso, Chile | Alamos,Nicolás;Videla,Jose;Madariaga,Marcelo;Gajardo,Vicente;Muñoz,Ariel;Billi,Marco;Amigo,Catalina; | Agua y Extremos; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Ciudades Resilientes | 2023 | 10.17605/OSF.IO/E7FPY | This collection of maps contains a set of 6 layers assessing the risk of the population of the Gran Valparaíso conurbation (Chile) in the face of threats of extreme heat, storm surges, floods, forest fires, landslides, and Droughts. The maps have a resolution at the Chilean census block level. The layers show as available attributes the overall level of risk and its components: threat (A), exposure (E), sensitivity (S), and response capacity (CR). To estimate the risk, A, E, S, and CR indices are combined through a fuzzy logic methodology, which considers using causality rules co-constructed and validated with local experts and stakeholders. It should be considered that the values presented by each census block on the maps represent an ordering of risk (and of A, E, S, and CR), where higher values indicate a greater risk than apples with lower values. The results are ordinal, ranging from mild, through moderately mild, to moderate, high, or very high. Moreover, they are not absolute values but relative to the specific case study and should not be comparable or extrapolated to other study areas. This Work is an actualization of what is presented by Alamos, N., Billi, M., Amigo, C., Urquiza, A., Winckler, P., Larraguibel, C., … Valdebenito, C. (2022, March 23). Fuzzy logic modeling to assess high-resolution spatial urban climatic risk impact in Valparaiso, Chile. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/2XTVS Español Esta colección de mapas contiene un conjunto de 6 capas que evalúan el riesgo de la población de la connurbación del Gran Valparaíso (Chile) ante amenazas de calor extremo, marejadas, inundaciones, incendios forestales, deslizamientos y sequías. Los mapas tienen una resolución a nivel de manzana censal. Las capas muestran como atributos disponibles el nivel global de riesgo y sus componentes: amenaza (A), exposición (E), sensibilidad (S) y capacidad de respuesta (CR). Para estimar el riesgo, los índices de A, E, S y CR se combinan a través de una metodología de lógica difusa, que considera el uso de reglas de causalidad co-construidas y validadas con expertos locales y partes interesadas. Se debe considerar que los valores que presenta cada manzana censal en los mapas representan un ordenamiento de riesgo (y de A, E, S y CR), donde los valores más altos indican mayor riesgo que las manzanas con valores más bajos. Los resultados son ordinales, que van desde leves, pasando por moderadamente leves, hasta moderados, altos o muy altos. Además, no son valores absolutos, sino relativos al caso de estudio específico y no deben ser comparables ni extrapolables a otras áreas de estudio. Este Trabajo es una actualización de lo presentado por Alamos, N., Billi, M., Amigo, C., Urquiza, A., Winckler, P., Larraguibel, C., … Valdebenito, C. (2022, March 23). Fuzzy logic modelling to assess high resolution spatial urban climatic risk impact in Valparaiso, Chile. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/2XTVS omparables ni extrapolables a otras áreas de estudio. Este Trabajo es una actualización de lo presentado por Alamos, N., Billi, M., Amigo, C., Urquiza, A., Winckler, P., Larraguibel, C., … Valdebenito, C. (2022, March 23). Fuzzy logic modelling to assess high resolution spatial urban climatic risk impact in Valparaiso, Chile. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/2XTVS omparables ni extrapolables a otras áreas de estudio. Este Trabajo es una actualización de lo presentado por Alamos, N., Billi, M., Amigo, C., Urquiza, A., Winckler, P., Larraguibel, C., … Valdebenito, C. (2022, March 23). Fuzzy logic modelling to assess high resolution spatial urban climatic risk impact in Valparaiso, Chile. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/2XTVS | | | https://osf.io/e7fpy/ | | | Not Indexed | | |
| CR2MET: A high-resolution precipitation and temperature dataset for the period 1960-2021 in continental Chile. | Boisier,Juan P.; | Agua y Extremos | 2023 | 10.5281/zenodo.7529682 | The Center for Climate and Resilience Research Meteorological dataset (CR2MET) includes two spatially-distributed products of daily precipitation and maximum/minimum near surface temperatures. The dataset covers the domain of continental Chile over a regular 0.05 degree latitude-longitude grid, and spans the period 1960-2021. Both a products are built on statistical models of the corresponding variables, calibrated against quality-controlled observational records. The CR2MET models are nurtured with a combination of data that includes different variables from ECMWF reanalysis ERA5, topographic parameters and land-surface temperature estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite sensor. | | | https://zenodo.org/record/7529682 | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Evaluating adaptation to drought in a changing climate: experience at the local scale in the Aconcagua Valley | Aldunce P.; Lillo-Ortega G.; Araya-Valenzuela D.; Maldonado-Portilla P.; Gallardo L. | Ciudades Resilientes; Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1080/17565529.2021.1893150 | Since 2010, a severe drought has affected central Chile, resulting in losses that prompt the need to evaluate and improve adaptation responses. The evaluation process requires the engagement of multiple actors in order to collect knowledge of their experiences and to inform future design and implementation of adaptation responses. A case study was conducted in four counties of the Aconcagua Valley, Chile, to evaluate the usefulness of existing drought response measures, and to identify strengths and weaknesses, and relevant actors’ recommendations for overcoming them. We applied the Index for the Usefulness of Adaptation Practices (IUPA), a multi-criteria tool that systematically identifies the perceived usefulness of measures. The most salient strengths of the evaluated measures were: replicability, pertinence, and efficacy; representing key factors that could facilitate the implementation of drought responses in similar contexts. The most salient weaknesses were: lack of integration with other policy domains and projects, low environmental protection, diminished autonomy in decision-making, and inequity. Proposed recommendations to overcome these weaknesses have real potential for implementation because they emerged from local actors. Results present empirical evidence of the utility of participatory approaches for a context-specific evaluation of measures, contributing to enhance adaptation to climate variability and change. © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. | Climate and Development | 17565529 | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17565529.2021.1893150 | 121-132 | 14 | Thomson Reuters SSCI | chile; climate change; drought; evaluation of adaptation; index for the usefulness of adaptation practices (iupa), aconcagua valley; chile; valparaiso [chile]; adaptive management; autonomy; decision making; design; environmental policy; environmental protection; index method; knowledge; participatory approach; policy implementation | Faculty of Agricultural Science, Department of Environmental Science and Renewable Natural Resources, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Heinrich Böll Foundation Cono Sur, Santiago, Chile; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; Independent consultant, Santiago, Chile |
| Refinement of the tephrostratigraphy straddling the northern Patagonian Andes (40–41°S): new tephra markers, reconciling different archives and ascertaining the timing of piedmont deglaciation | Alloway B.V.; Pearce N.J.G.; Moreno P.I.; Villarosa G.; Jara I.A.; Henríquez C.A.; Sagredo E.A.; Ryan M.T.; Outes V. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1002/jqs.3389 | We describe the stratigraphy, age, geochemistry and correlation of tephra from west to east across the northern Patagonian Andes (c. 40–41°S) with a view to further refining the eruptive history of this region back to the onset of the Last Glacial Termination (~18 cal. ka). Eastwards across the Andes, rhyodacite to rhyolitic tephra markers of dominantly Puyehue-Cordón Caulle source are persistently recognised and provide a stratigraphic context for more numerously erupted intervening tephra of basalt to basaltic–andesite composition. Tephra from distal eruptive centres are also recognised. West of the Andean Cordillera, organic-rich cores from a small closed lake basin (Lago Pichilafquén) reveal an exceptional high-resolution record of lowland vegetation–climate change and eruptive activity spanning the last 15 400 years. Three new rhyodacite tephra (BT6-T1, -T2 and -T4) identified near the base of the Pichilafquén record, spanning 13.2 to 13.9 cal. ka bp, can be geochemically matched with correlatives in basal andic soil sequences closely overlying regolith and/or basement rock. The repetitiveness of this tephrostratigraphy across this Andean transect suggests near-synchronous tephra accretion and onset of up-building soil formation under more stable (revegetating) ground-surface conditions following rapid piedmont deglaciation on both sides of the Cordillera by at least ~14 cal. ka bp. © 2021 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Journal of Quaternary Science | 02678179 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jqs.3389 | 441-477 | 37 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | patagonia; deglaciation; last glacial; tephra; tephrochronology; volcanic eruption, andes; last glacial termination; northwest patagonia; tephra; volcán puyehue | School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; Núcleo Milenio Paleoclima, Centro de Estudios del Clima y la Resiliencia, and Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geography & Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, United Kingdom; Dipartimento di Scienze Biologiche, Geologiche e Ambientali, Università di Bologna, Italy; IPATEC, CONICET-Universidad Nacional del Comahue, Bariloche, Argentina; Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), La Serena, Chile; ENGEO Ltd., Wellington, New Zealand |
| Seasonal Variations in Fjord Sediment Grain Size: A Pre-requisite for Hydrological and Climate Reconstructions in Partially Glacierized Watersheds (Baker River, Patagonia) | Amann B.; Bertrand S.; Alvarez-Garreton C.; Reid B. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1029/2021JF006391 | Fjord sediments are increasingly recognized as high-resolution archives of past hydrological and climate variability. Using them as such, however, requires a comprehensive understanding of the variables that affect their accumulation rates and properties. Here, we conduct a spatial and temporal study of sediment samples collected at the head of Martínez Channel (Chilean Patagonia, 48°S), to understand how the fjord's sediments register changes in the hydrology of Baker River, Chile's largest river in terms of mean annual discharge. We apply end-member modeling to particle-size distributions of: (a) river suspended sediments, (b) surface sediments collected along a proximal-distal transect at the fjord head, and (c) fjord sediments collected in a sequential sediment trap at 15-day resolution during two consecutive years. We then validate the use of the grain-size end members for hydrological and climate reconstructions, using a sediment core that covers the last 35 years. Results show that the river suspended sediments and fjord sediments are consistently composed of two grain-size subpopulations. The finest end member (EM1; mode 4.03 μm) reflects the meltwater contribution, which dominates in all but the winter season. The coarser end member (EM2; mode 18.7 μm) dominates in winter, when meltwater contribution is reduced, and is associated with rainfall. We show that the fluxes of EM1 and EM2 provide quantitative estimates of baseflow (r = 0.87, p < 0.001) and quickflow (r = 0.86, p < 0.001), respectively. Additionally, we propose that log (EM1/EM2) can be used to reconstruct meltwater production (r = 0.67, p < 0.001) and temperature (r = 0.81, p < 0.001) in the lower Baker River watershed. These results support the use of fjord sediments for quantitative reconstructions of hydrological and climate variability in partially glacierized watersheds. © 2022. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. | Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface | 21699003 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021JF006391 | arte2021JF006391 | 127 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | aisen; baker basin; chile; patagonia; fjord; grain size; meltwater; paleoclimate; paleohydrology; reconstruction; river discharge; seasonal variation; suspended sediment; temperature; watershed, end-member analysis; fjord sediments; meltwater; river suspended sediments; sediment fluxes; temperature | Renard Centre of Marine Geology, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Sciences, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Centro de Investigación en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia (CIEP), Coyhaique, Chile |
| Prosopis L. woody growth in relation to hydrology in South America: A review | Ambite S.; Ferrero M.E.; Piraino S.; Badagian J.; Muñoz A.A.; Aguilera-Betti I.; Gamazo P.; Roig F.A.; Lucas C. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1016/j.dendro.2022.126017 | Arboreal species of the genus Prosopis L. have played an important role in the development of tree-ring research in arid and semi-arid ecoregions of South America. Given the distribution of Prosopis across a broad precipitation gradient from 0 to 2000 mm y−1 and its unique role as a phreatophyte, the relationship between Prosopis species growth and water has been a recurring theme over the past century. We conducted a systematic review of the literature addressing Prosopis and water research in South America, and combined site coordinates with GIS data of mean annual precipitation (MAP), elevation, biome, and soil moisture from online databases to understand the spatial distribution of research to date. We compiled 40 publications from 1931 to 2022, including results from 11 species of Prosopis among four countries, on the relationship between Prosopis spp and precipitation, groundwater levels, soil humidity, among other hydrological parameters. The spatial distribution of research sites spans tropical-subtropical and temperate latitudes from 4° to 35°S, excluding regions where the genus is present in Patagonia and northeastern South America. Studies covered a broad range of elevations from 30 to 3500 m a.s.l. but was limited to 1–730 mm y−1 MAP, excluding more humid climates where Prosopis occurs. Results obtained from 32 dendrochronological studies and eight studies relating to Prosopis and hydrology, were grouped into sub-disciplines of tree-ring formation and the hydrosystem, dendroclimatology, dendrohydrology, and dendroecology. The review highlights the unique affinities of Prosopis to arid conditions, and the use of tree rings as a proxy for historical droughts and variability in water tables. Nonetheless, there are opportunities to expand the geographical-climatological extent of Prosopis growth research to humid climates, as well as to incorporate novel techniques such as stable isotopes and vessel size chronologies to understand how this genus records hydrological change throughout South America. © 2022 Elsevier GmbH | Dendrochronologia | 11257865 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1125786522000972 | art126017 | 76 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | dendrochronology; prosopis; south america; tree-ring research; wood anatomy, patagonia; south america; dendrochronology; hydrological change; soil moisture; spatial distribution; tree ring | Postgraduate Program PEDECIBA - BioloXgía, Universidad de la República, Uruguay; Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales, CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental, Huancayo, Peru; Cátedra de Dasonomía, FCA-UNCuyo, Mendoza, Argentina; Departamento del Agua, CENUR Litoral Norte - Universidad de la República, Salto, Uruguay; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Estudios Ambientales, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia CR2, Santiago, Chile; Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias Antárticas y Subantárticas, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; Centro Transdisciplinario de Estudios Ambientales y Desarrollo Humano Sostenible (CEAM), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Hémera Centro de Observación de la Tierra, Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, Huechuraba, Santiago, Chile; Laboratorio Ecología Fluvial, Depto. De Ciencias Biológicas, CENUR Litoral Norte - Universidad de la República, Uruguay |
| Comment on: “The impact of a lack of government strategies for sustainable water management and land use planning on the hydrology of water bodies: lessons learned from the disappearance of the Aculeo Lagoon in central Chile” by Valdés-Pineda et al. 2022 in Sustainability, 14(1), 413 | Barría P.; Ocampo-Melgar A.; Chadwick C.; Galleguillos M.; Garreaud R.; Díaz-Vasconcellos R.; Poblete D.; Rubio-Álvarez E. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1007/s10113-022-01991-3 | Valdés-Pineda et al. (Sustainability 14:413, 2022) present data for changes in climate, socio-economic, and land use and land cover (LULC) from diverse sources, concluding that the main causes for the desiccation of the Aculeo Lake were the river deviations and aquifer pumping, along with the impact of reduced precipitation. Based on that, they infer that the previous study of Barría et al. (Reg Environ Change 21:1–5, 2021a), which concluded that the impact of the decade-long drought was ten times larger than the increase of human extractions on the lake desiccation lacks scientific validity. We disagree with the conclusions from Valdés-Pineda et al. (Sustainability 14:413, 2022) and document that their article uses fragmentary information of a complex system, misinterprets of our results, and fails to present a reliable attribution methodology. We show that the hypothesis that the disappearance of Aculeo Lake was largely due to local anthropogenic uses is unsupported. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. | Regional Environmental Change | 14363798 | https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-022-01991-3 | art131 | 22 | Thomson Reuters SCIE, SSCI | nan, anthropogenic; attribution; decision-making; drought; land use/land cover; water budget | Faculty of Forest Sciences and Conservation of Nature, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile; Faculty of Engineering and Science, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Diagonal Las Torres, Peñalolén, Santiago, 26407941169, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; School of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Eridanus Ingeniería en Recursos Hídricos, Santiago, Chile |
| Neoliberal resilience within drinking water re-nationalisation in Uruguay; [Re-estatização da água potável e a resiliência neoliberal no Uruguai]; [Reestatización del agua potable y resiliencia neoliberal en Uruguay] | Bascans M.-A.; Nicolas-Artero C.; Gautreau P.; Santos C. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1590/2175-3369.014.e20210133 | The article discusses the neoliberalisation of nature based on the study of the re-establishment of drinking water and sanitation services in Uruguay during the progressive government of the Frente Amplio. The concept of neoliberal resilience is proposed to understand the reproduction of a neoliberal logic in the management of these services despite the recognition of the human right to water in the Constitution. Using a qualitative and quantitative methodology, we reconstruct the process of privatisation of drinking water services and its social repercussions. Four processes are identified that slow down the return to public and state services: the permanence of concessions with private capital, the weakening of the system of cross-subsidies, the demobilisation of the opposition and the insertion of a neoliberal economic development model. © 2022 Editora CHAMPAGNAT. All rights reserved. | Urbe | 21753369 | http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2175-33692022000100212&tlng=es | arte20210133 | 14 | Thomson Reuters ESCI | nan, neoliberalism; privatisation; public utility service; uruguay; water supply | Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, Île-de-France, France; Universidad de Chile, Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne, Instituto de Geografía, Île-de-France, Paris, France; Universidad de la República, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Montevideo, Uruguay |
| Temperature and moisture transport during atmospheric blocking patterns around the Antarctic Peninsula | Bozkurt D.; Marín J.C.; Barrett B.S. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100506 | We assess temperature and moisture transport in and around the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) associated with atmospheric blocking over two domains, one located to the west (150–90°W, 50–70°S, Western AP (WAP)) and the other over and to the east (90–30°W, 50–70°S, Eastern AP (EAP)) of the AP. We make use of surface meteorological observations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and a state-of-the-art atmospheric river (AR) database. Observed temperature anomalies indicate that the WAP and EAP blocking patterns are characterized by significant cold and warm anomalies over the AP, respectively, particularly in austral autumn, winter and spring. Consistent with these changes, cold anomalies depicted by ERA5 are associated with the transport of cold and dry air from the Antarctic continent by southerly and southeasterly flow over the eastern flank of the WAP blocking. ERA5 results highlight the importance of blocking days over the EAP domain (largely centered over the Drake Passage) to the occurrence of warm events associated with northerly and northwesterly warm air transport. Significant increases in integrated vapor transport (IVT) and AR frequency are also evident during the EAP blocking, particularly on the windward side of the AP. During the most extreme blocking days in this domain, there exist significant increases in latent and sensible heat fluxes on the windward side of the AP and the Larsen C Ice Shelf, respectively, indicating the contribution of foehn events to warm anomalies, especially in austral autumn and winter. The co-occurrences between landfalling ARs and blocking are found to amplify foehn effect due to higher IVT and associated latent heat condensation compared to blocking days without ARs. We conclude that blocking patterns are important to understand the occurrence of extremely warm events and landfalling ARs in the AP and their potential impacts on the surface cryospheric processes. © 2022 The Author(s) | Weather and Climate Extremes | 22120947 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094722000858 | art100506 | 38 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | antarctic peninsula; antarctica; drake passage; larsen ice shelf; west antarctica; air temperature; anticyclone; atmospheric blocking; boundary layer; latent heat flux; river basin; sensible heat flux, anticyclone; atmospheric river; extreme temperature; heat flux; larsen c ice shelf | Departamento de Meteorología, Universidad de Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Estudios Atmosféricos y Astroestadística (CEAAS), Universidad de Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Center for Oceanographic Research COPAS COASTAL, Universidad de Concepción, Chile; Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Arlington, VA, United States |
| Global wood anatomical perspective on the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) in the mid-6th century CE | Büntgen U.; Crivellaro A.; Arseneault D.; Baillie M.; Barclay D.; Bernabei M.; Bontadi J.; Boswijk G.; Brown D.; Christie D.A.; Churakova O.V.; Cook E.R.; D'Arrigo R.; Davi N.; Esper J.; Fonti P.; Greaves C.; Hantemirov R.M.; Hughes M.K.; Kirdyanov A.V.; Krusic P.J.; Le Quesne C.; Ljungqvist F.C.; McCormick M.; Myglan V.S.; Nicolussi K.; Oppenheimer C.; Palmer J.; Qin C.; Reinig F.; Salzer M.; Stoffel M.; Torbenson M.; Trnka M.; Villalba R.; Wiesenberg N.; Wiles G.; Yang B.; Piermattei A. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1016/j.scib.2022.10.019 | Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this exceptional cold phase are, however, still under debate because of the limited resolution and geographical distribution of the available proxy archives. Here, we use 106 wood anatomical thin sections from 23 forest sites and 20 tree species in both hemispheres to search for cell-level fingerprints of ephemeral summer cooling between 530 and 550 CE. After cross-dating and double-staining, we identified 89 Blue Rings (lack of cell wall lignification), nine Frost Rings (cell deformation and collapse), and 93 Light Rings (reduced cell wall thickening) in the Northern Hemisphere. Our network reveals evidence for the strongest temperature depression between mid-July and early-August 536 CE across North America and Eurasia, whereas more localised cold spells occurred in the summers of 532, 540–43, and 548 CE. The lack of anatomical signatures in the austral trees suggests limited incursion of stratospheric volcanic aerosol into the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics, that any forcing was mitigated by atmosphere-ocean dynamical responses and/or concentrated outside the growing season, or a combination of factors. Our findings demonstrate the advantage of wood anatomical investigations over traditional dendrochronological measurements, provide a benchmark for Earth system models, support cross-disciplinary studies into the entanglements of climate and history, and question the relevance of global climate averages. © 2022 Science China Press | Science Bulletin | 20959273 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2095927322004790 | 2336-2344 | 67 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | cells; climate models; earth system models; forestry; geographical distribution; volcanoes; blue ring; climate extremes; cold phasis; dendrochronology; late antiquity; limited resolution; little ice age; spatial extent; tree rings; volcanic eruptions; cytology, blue rings; climate extremes; dendrochronology; late antiquity; tree rings; volcanic eruptions | Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, United States; Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf, 8903, Switzerland; Global Change Research Centre (CzechGlobe), Brno, 60300, Czech Republic; Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, 61300, Czech Republic; Forest Biometrics Laboratory, Faculty of Forestry, “Stefan cel Mare” University of Suceava, Suceava, 720229, Romania; Department of Biology, Chemistry and Geography, University of Quebec in Rimouski, Rimouski, G5L 3A1, Qc., Canada; Archaeology & Palaeoecology, School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, BT7 1NN, United States; Department of Geology, State University of New York at Cortland, Cortland, 13045, NY, United States; CNR-IBE, Institute of BioEconomy, National Research Council, Trento, 38121, Italy; School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland, 1010, New Zealand; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 509000, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR), Santiago, 8370449, Chile; Cape Horn International Center (CHIC), Punta Arenas, 6200000, Chile; Institute of Ecology and Geography, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, 660041, Russian Federation; Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, 10964, NY, United States; Department of Environmental Science, William Paterson University, Wayne, 07470, N... |
| Worldwide Signature of the 2022 Tonga Volcanic Tsunami | Carvajal M.; Sepúlveda I.; Gubler A.; Garreaud R. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1029/2022GL098153 | The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano in January 2022 in the southwest Pacific islands of Tonga triggered a tsunami that was detected beyond the Pacific basin. Here we show its spatiotemporal signature as revealed by hundreds of publicly available coastal tide gauge records from around the world. The Tonga tsunami was characterized by a uniformly small leading wave that arrived earlier than theoretically expected for a tsunami wave freely propagating away from the volcano. In contrast, the largest waves, of up to +3 m high, were concentrated in the Pacific and their timing agrees well with tsunami propagation times from the volcano. While the leading waves were caused by a previously reported fast-moving atmospheric pressure pulse generated in the volcanic explosion, the large waves observed later in the Pacific were likely originated in the vicinity of the volcano although its generation mechanism(s) cannot be identified by the tide gauge data alone. © 2022. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. | Geophysical Research Letters | 00948276 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL098153 | arte2022GL098153 | 49 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | atmospheric pressure; hunga tonga-hunga ha'apai volcano; tide gauge records; tonga eruption; volcanic tsunami, pacific islands; atmospheric pressure; tide gages; volcanoes; coastal tide-gauge records; hunga tonga-hunga ha'apai volcano; pacific islands; propagation time; tide gauge record; tide gauges; tonga eruption; tsunami waves; volcanic tsunami; volcanics; atmospheric pressure; tide gauge; tsunami; volcanic eruption; volcano; tsunamis | Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias Geológicas, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United States; Centro de Investigación Para La Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN), Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Investigación del Clima y la Resiliencia, CR2, Santiago, Chile |
| Modes of access to water for domestic use in rural Chile: a typological proposal | Chloé N.-A.; Gustavo B.; Carlos B.; Noelia C. | Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.2166/wp.2022.026 | A typology is proposed regarding the modes of access to water for the rural population in Chile as well as four explanatory dimensions of its heterogeneity. The typology emerges from a systematic review of the literature and an analysis of quantitative data based on rural water organizations’ databases. The modes of access are defined by the following five criteria: their socio-technical system, their type of management, their level of spatial action, the source of their financing, and the type of technical assistance they received. The findings dispute the systemic vision of access to water in rural areas and invite us to consider the structural heterogeneity in regulations and public policies to guarantee the human right to water. © 2022 The Authors. | Water Policy | 13667017 | https://iwaponline.com/wp/article/24/7/1179/89257/Modes-of-access-to-water-for-domestic-use-in-rural | 1179-1194 | 24 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, chile; climate change; drinking water; rural water supply; water law; water security | Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Historia y Ciencias Sociales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Centro de Investigación en Dinámicas de Ecosistemas Marinos de Altas Latitudes, Valdivia, Chile; Department of Agricultural Economics, Universidad de Talca, Av. Lircay S/N, Talca, 3460000, Chile; Departamento de Historia, Universidad de Concepción, Edmundo Larenas 240, Concepción, 4030000, Chile |
| Central tropical Pacific convection drives extreme high temperatures and surface melt on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula | Clem K.R.; Bozkurt D.; Kennett D.; King J.C.; Turner J. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1038/s41467-022-31119-4 | Northern sections of the Larsen Ice Shelf, eastern Antarctic Peninsula (AP) have experienced dramatic break-up and collapse since the early 1990s due to strong summertime surface melt, linked to strengthened circumpolar westerly winds. Here we show that extreme summertime surface melt and record-high temperature events over the eastern AP and Larsen C Ice Shelf are triggered by deep convection in the central tropical Pacific (CPAC), which produces an elongated cyclonic anomaly across the South Pacific coupled with a strong high pressure anomaly over Drake Passage. Together these atmospheric circulation anomalies transport very warm and moist air to the southwest AP, often in the form of “atmospheric rivers”, producing strong foehn warming and surface melt on the eastern AP and Larsen C Ice Shelf. Therefore, variability in CPAC convection, in addition to the circumpolar westerlies, is a key driver of AP surface mass balance and the occurrence of extreme high temperatures. © 2022, The Author(s). | Nature Communications | 20411723 | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31119-4 | art3906 | 13 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, antarctic regions; convection; freezing; ice cover; temperature; antarctic peninsula; antarctica; drake passage; larsen ice shelf; pacific ocean; pacific ocean (south); pacific ocean (tropical); west antarctica; air-sea interaction; atmospheric circulation; circumpolar current; high pressure; westerly; antarctica; article; drake (duck); high temperature; hyperbaric pressure; ice shelf; male; nonhuman; river; thermodynamics; warming; antarctica; freezing; ice cover; temperature | School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; Department of Meteorology, University of Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Center for Oceanographic Research COPAS COASTAL, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, United Kingdom |
| High ENSO sensitivity in tree rings from a northern population of Polylepis tarapacana in the Peruvian Andes | Crispín-DelaCruz D.B.; Morales M.S.; Andreu-Hayles L.; Christie D.A.; Guerra A.; Requena-Rojas E.J. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1016/j.dendro.2021.125902 | Polylepis tarapacana is the highest-elevation tree species worldwide growing between 4000 and 5000 m a.s.l. along the South American Altiplano. P. tarapacana is adapted to live in harsh conditions and has been widely used for drought and precipitation tree-ring based reconstructions. Here, we present a 400-year tree-ring width (TRW) chronology located in southern Peru (17ºS; 69ºW) at the northernmost limit of P. tarapacana tree species distribution. The objectives of this study are to assess tree growth sensitivity of a northern P. tarapacana population to (1) precipitation, temperature and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability; (2) to compare its growth variability and ENSO sensitivity with southern P. tarapacana forests. Our results showed that this TRW record is highly sensitive to the prior summer season (Nov-Jan) precipitation (i.e. positive correlation) when the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) reaches its maximum intensity in this region. We also found a positive relationship with current year temperature that suggests that radial growth may be enhanced by warm, less cloudy, conditions during the year of formation. A strong positive relationship was found between el Niño 3.4 and tree growth variability during the current growing season, but negative during the previous growth period. Growth variability in our northern study site was in agreement with other populations that represent almost the full range of P. tarapacana latitudinal distribution (~ 18ºS to 23ºS). Towards the south of the P. tarapacana TRW network there was a decrease in the strength of the agreement of growth variability with our site,with the exception of higher correlation with the two southeastern sites. Similarly, the TRW chronologies recorded higher sensitivity to ENSO influences in the north and southeastern locations, which are wetter, than the drier southwestern sites. These patterns hold for the entire period, as well as for periods of high and low ENSO activity. Overall, P. tarapacana tree growth at the north of its distribution is mostly influenced by prior year moisture availability and current year temperature that are linked to large-scale climate patterns such as the SASM and ENSO, respectively. © 2021 Elsevier GmbH | Dendrochronologia | 11257865 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1125786521000989 | art125902 | 71 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | altiplano; andes; peru; polylepis tarapacana; adaptation; chronology; dendrochronology; el nino-southern oscillation; reconstruction; sensitivity analysis; shrub; tree ring, central andes; climate variability; enso proxy record; northwest altiplano; paleoclimate; tree-growth; tropical dendroclimatology | Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental, Huancayo, Peru; Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales, CONICET, Mendoza, Argentina; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; CREAF, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallés), Barcelona, Spain; ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys 23, Barcelona, Spain; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Chile; Missouri Botanical Garden, Prolong. Bolognesi Mz.E Lote 6, Pasco, Oxapampa, Peru |
| Atmospheric rivers drive exceptional Saharan dust transport towards Europe | Francis D.; Fonseca R.; Nelli N.; Bozkurt D.; Picard G.; Guan B. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105959 | This study highlights the occurrence of atmospheric rivers (ARs) over northwest Africa towards Europe, which were accompanied by intense episodes of Saharan dust transport all the way to Scandinavia, in the winter season. Using a combination of observational and reanalysis data, we investigate two extreme dusty AR events in February 2021 and assess their impact on snow melt in the Alps. The warm, moist, and dusty air mass (spatially-averaged 2-meter temperature and water vapour mixing ratio anomalies of up to 8 K and 3 g kg−1, and aerosol optical depths and dust loadings of up to 0.85 and 11 g m−2, respectively) led to a 50% and 40% decrease in snow depth and surface albedo, respectively, in less than one month during the winter season. ARs over northwest Africa show increasing trends over the past 4 decades, with 78% of AR events associated with severe dust episodes over Europe. © 2021 The Authors | Atmospheric Research | 01698095 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809521005159 | art105959 | 266 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | alps; sahara; atmospheric aerosols; atmospheric movements; digital storage; dust; snow; water vapor; atmospheric river; dust aerosols; dust transport; european alps; sahara desert; saharan dust; scandinavia; snow-melting; water vapour; winter seasons; aerosol; atmospheric circulation; atmospheric transport; dust; snowmelt; water vapor; rivers, atmospheric rivers; dust aerosols; european alps; sahara desert; snow melting; water vapour | Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (ENGEOS) Lab, Khalifa University, P.O. Box 127788, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Department of Meteorology, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, 2340000, Chile; University Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), UMR 5001, Grenoble, 38041, France; Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, Indonesia; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, 91109, CA, United States; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, 8320000, Chile |
| Declining honey production and beekeeper adaptation to climate change in Chile | Gajardo-Rojas M.; Muñoz A.A.; Barichivich J.; Klock-Barría K.; Gayo E.M.; Fontúrbel F.E.; Olea M.; Lucas C.M.; Veas C. | Ciudades Resilientes; Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1177/03091333221093757 | Drought severity has pervasive impacts on honey production via direct impacts on water resources and nectar availability. The current mega-drought in Chile has impacts on water resources and forest vigor, particularly in the Mediterranean and Temperate regions where honey production is concentrated. While honey production plays an important role in the local rural economy and providing pollination services to other agricultural activities, studies of the long-term impacts of the mega-drought on honey production are scarce. Here, we evaluate the impact of climate variability on historical changes in honey production in the Mediterranean (32°S–37°S) and Temperate (37°S–41°S) regions of Chile, using annual honey production records of beekeepers together with national records of honey exports. We also used questionnaires and interviews to evaluate beekeeper perceptions regarding the effects of climate change on honey production and adaptation practices in both regions. Results indicated a declining trend in honey production and exports in the last decade, largely related to changes in precipitation and temperature in both regions. Declines in honey production affected 82% of beekeepers, 80% of whom had employed adaptive measures, and 74% considered that these measures were effective. The drier, warmer Mediterranean region showed more severe declines in precipitation and honey production, which beekeepers reported as a main contributing factor to transhumance from the Mediterranean to the Temperate region. This is the first study to show the effects of drought on honey production in Chile, providing a foundation for future climate change adaptation strategies within apiculture. © The Author(s) 2022. | Progress in Physical Geography | 03091333 | http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/03091333221093757 | 737-756 | 46 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | adaptation; apiculture; beekeeping; climate change; drought; forest vigor; honey; honey bee; transhumance, chile; adaptive management; apiculture; climate change; climate effect; drought; environmental stress; forest dynamics; honey | Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil, Valparaíso, 2241, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), Paris, France; Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB), Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Biología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Polo Ecologia Fluvial, Departamento del Agua, CENUR Litoral Norte, Universidad de La República, Paysandu, Uruguay; Centro Interdisciplinario de Estudios de Territorios Litorales y Rurales, Valparaíso, Chile |
| Running a Scientific Conference During Pandemic Times | Garreaud R.; Ralph M.; Wilson A.; Ramos A.M.; Eiras-Barca J.; Steen-Larsen H.C.; Rutz J.; Albano C.; Tilinina N.; Warner M.; Viale M.; Rondanelli R.; McPhee J.; Valenzuela R.; Gorodetskaya I. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0023.1 | [No abstract available] | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society | 00030007 | https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-22-0023.1/BAMS-D-22-0023.1.xml | E1650-E1657 | 103 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, atmospheric river; flood events; mountain meteorology; precipitation; rainfall; runoff | Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal; Universidade de Vigo, Vigo, Spain; University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; NWS Western Region, Salt Lake City, UT, United States; Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, United States; Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Moscow, Russian Federation; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle, WA, United States; Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales, Mendoza, Argentina; Departamento de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Cs. de la Ingeniería, Universidad de O’Higgins,, Rancagua, Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies, Department of Physics, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal |
| A Cross-Cutting Approach for Relating Anthropocene, Environmental Injustice and Sacrifice Zones | Gayo E.M.; Muñoz A.A.; Maldonado A.; Lavergne C.; Francois J.P.; Rodríguez D.; Klock-Barría K.; Sheppard P.R.; Aguilera-Betti I.; Alonso-Hernández C.; Mena-Carrasco M.; Urquiza A.; Gallardo L. | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 2022 | 10.1029/2021EF002217 | The Anthropocene is an uneven phenomenon. Accelerated shifts in the functioning of the Earth System are mainly driven by the production and consumption of wealthy economies. Social, environmental and health costs of such industrialization, however, bear on low-income communities inhabiting severely degraded territories by polluting activities (i.e., sacrifice zones). How global, national and local socio-economic and governance processes have interacted in perpetuating socio-environmental inequalities in these territories has been rarely explored. Here, we develop an historical quantitative approach integrating a novel chemostratigraphic record, data on policy making, and socio-economic trends to evaluate the feedback relationship between environmental injustice and Anthropocene in sacrifice zones. We specifically outline a case study for the Puchuncaví valley -one of the most emblematic sacrifice zones from Chile-. We verify an ever-growing burden of heavy metals and metalloids over the past five decades paced by the staggering expansion of local industrial activities, which has ultimately been spurred by national and transnational market forces. Local poverty levels have declined concomitantly, but this path toward social equality is marginal as costs of pollution have grown through time. Indeed, national and international pollution control actions appear insufficient in mitigating the cumulative impact brought by highly toxic elements. Thus, our sub-decadal reconstruction for pollution trends over the past 136 years from a sediment record, emerges as a science-based tool for informing the discussion on Anthropocene governance. Furthermore, it helps to advance in the assessment of environmental inequality in societal models that prioritize economic growth to the detriment of socio-environmental security. © 2022 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. | Earth's Future | 23284277 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021EF002217 | arte2021EF002217 | 10 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; anthropocene; economic growth; environmental justice; paleoenvironment; pollution control; socioeconomic impact; trace element; trend analysis, anthropocene risks; paleopollution records; puchuncaví; socio-economic trends; socio-environmental inequalities; trace elements | Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Institue of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB), Santiago, Chile; Núcleo Milenio UPWELL, Concepción, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate Action, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), La Serena, Chile; Departamento de Biología Marina, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo, Chile; HUB AMBIENTAL UPLA, Universidad de Playa Ancha, Valparaíso, Chile; Laboratory of Aquatic Environmental Research, Centro de Estudios Avanzados (CEA), Universidad de Playa Ancha, Valparaíso, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias y Geografía, Universidad de Playa Ancha, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Investigación en Tecnología para La Sociedad (C+), Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Chile; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Centro Transdisciplinario de Estudios Ambientales y Desarrollo Humano Sostenible (CEAM), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; International Atomic Energy Agency—Marine Environment Laboratories (IAEA-EL), Principality of Monaco, Monte Carlo, Monaco; Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| A coupled modeling approach to assess the effect of forest policies in water provision: A biophysical evaluation of a drought-prone rural catchment in south-central Chile | Gimeno F.; Galleguillos M.; Manuschevich D.; Zambrano-Bigiarini M. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154608 | The effect of different forest conservation policies on water provision has been poorly investigated due to a lack of an integrative methodological framework that enables its quantification. We developed a method for assessing the effects of forest conservation policies on water provision for rural inhabitants, based on a land-use model coupled with an eco-hydrological model. We used as a case study the Lumaco catchment, Chile, a territory dominated by native forests (NF) and non-native tree farms, with an extended dry period where nearly 12,600 people of rural communities get drinking water through water trucks. We analyzed three land-use policy scenarios: i) a baseline scenario based on historical land-cover maps; ii) a NF Recovery and Protection (NFRP) scenario, based on an earlier implementation of the first NF Recovery and Forestry Development bill; and iii) a Pristine (PR) scenario, based on potential vegetation belts; the latter two based on Dyna CLUE, and simulated between 1990 and 2015. Impacts on water provision from each scenario were computed with SWAT. The NFRP scenario resulted in an increase of 6974 ha of NF regarding the baseline situation, and the PR scenario showed an increase of 26,939 ha of NF. Despite large differences in NF areas, slight increases in inflows (Q) were found between the NFRP and the PR scenarios, with relative differences with respect to the baseline of 0.3% and 2.5% for NFRP and PR, respectively. Notwithstanding, these small differences in the NFRP scenario, they become larger if we analyze the cumulative values during the dry season only (December, January, and February), where they reach 1.1% in a normal year and 3.1% in a dry year. Flows increases were transformed into water truck costs resulting in up to 441,876 USD (monthly) of fiscal spending that could be avoided during a dry period. © 2022 Elsevier B.V. | Science of the Total Environment | 00489697 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969722017016 | art154608 | 830 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; conservation of natural resources; drinking water; droughts; forests; humans; policy; rural population; chile; catchments; climate models; forestry; land use; potable water; rain; remote sensing; runoff; rural areas; trucks; drinking water; water; drinking water; conservation policy; environmental assessment; forest conservation; hydrological models; land use modelling; native forests; policy environmental assessment; remote-sensing; scenario-based; water provision; biophysics; catchment; drought; environmental assessment; forest management; forestry policy; hydrological modeling; land use; modeling; remote sensing; water management; agricultural land; article; biophysics; catchment area (hydrology); chile; drought; dry season; environmental policy; environmental protection; forest; hydrological model; implementation science; land use; nonhuman; remote sensing; rural area; simulation; tree; vegetation; water flow; forest; human; policy; rural population; drought, hydrological model; land-use model; policy environmental assessment; remote sensing | Doctorado en Ciencias de Recursos Naturales, Universidad de la Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad Adolfo Ibañez, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Geografía, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile |
| Drivers of Flammability of Eucalyptus globulus Labill Leaves: Terpenes, Essential Oils, and Moisture Content | Guerrero F.; Carmona C.; Hernández C.; Toledo M.; Arriagada A.; Espinoza L.; Bergmann J.; Taborga L.; Yáñez K.; Carrasco Y.; Muñoz A.A. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.3390/f13060908 | Mediterranean climate regions have become more vulnerable to fire due to the extreme weather conditions and numerous Eucalyptus globulus plantation areas. The aim of this study is to analyze the fire hazard related to E. globulus in a forest fire scenario, based on the contrast of thermochemical parameters and their relationship with chemical properties, considering the predominant exotic forest species (E. globulus, Pinus radiata, Acacia dealbata, and Acacia melanoxylon) present in the Valparaiso region, Chile. The results revealed that although all of the studied species were highly flammable, E. globulus was extremely flammable, as its leaves contain high concentrations of essential oils, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes, which can generate a flammable atmosphere due to their low flashpoint and the strong negative influence shown between the essential oils, volatile terpenes, and limonene concentration. Moreover, the heat of combustion of E. globulus was positively correlated with its high essential oil contents. Finally, all of the studied species had low flashpoints and high heating values; therefore, they are predisposed to ignite in the presence of a heat source, releasing high amounts of energy during combustion, which contributes to the risk of the formation and spread of canopy fires among these tree formations. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. | Forests | 19994907 | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/6/908 | art908 | 13 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chemical analysis; combustion; deforestation; fires; flammability; monoterpenes; chile; valparaiso [chile]; chemical analysis; combustion; deforestation; fire hazards; fires; flammability; monoterpenes; climate regions; eucalyptus globulus; eucalyptus globulus labill; extreme weather conditions; fire scenarios; flash points; forest fires; globulus; mediterranean climates; scenario-based; angiosperm; canopy architecture; essential oil; forest fire; moisture content; species diversity; terpene; essential oils, essential oils; eucalyptus globulus; flammability; forest fires; terpenes | Department of Mechanical Engineering, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Avenida España 1680, Valparaíso, 2340000, Chile; Institute of Chemistry, Science Faculty, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Universidad 330, Valparaíso, 2373223, Chile; Natural Products Laboratory, Department of Chemistry, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Avenida España 1680, Valparaíso, 2340000, Chile; Centro de Biotecnología “Dr. Daniel Alkalay Lowitt”, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Avenida España 1680, Valparaíso, 2340000, Chile; Center for Research and Environmental Services (ECOVIDA), Environment Agency (AMA), Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment (CITMA), Km 2.5 Carretera a Luis Lazo, Pinar del Río, 20300, Cuba; Institute of Geography, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2241, Valparaíso, 2362807, Chile; Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Antonio Bellet 314, Providencia, Santiago, 7500494, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2, Av. Almirante Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, 8370449, Chile |
| Hydrologic Sensitivities and ENSO Variability Across Hydrological Regimes in Central Chile (28°–41°S) | Hernandez D.; Mendoza P.A.; Boisier J.P.; Ricchetti F. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1029/2021WR031860 | There is strong evidence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections in the South Pacific and related impacts on the precipitation regime in Chile; nonetheless, many aspects of the hydrological propagation and temperature responses to ENSO remain unclear in this region. We examine fluctuations across 59 near-natural catchments in central Chile (28°–41°S) under contrasting ENSO phases during the period 1981–2019. Our results show statistically significant ENSO-related hydroclimatic anomalies in almost all watersheds analyzed, which confirms the major influence of ENSO within this domain. By comparing El Niño phases against La Niña, we observe generally wetter conditions, warmer winters, cooler late springs, lower (higher) runoff ratios in snowmelt-driven (rainfall-driven) basins, and longer storm durations while storm frequencies (i.e., number of events of consecutive days with precipitation) are preserved. Additionally, low (high) elevation catchments are related to positive (negative) streamflow sensitivities to winter temperature, which increase in magnitude with the evaporative index; besides, catchments with sharp warm-and-dry conditions yield largely negative sensitivities to late spring temperature. Further, positive streamflow anomalies in rainfall-driven catchments are explained by temperature and precipitation ENSO-related amplitudes (El Niño minus La Niña) that separately favor streamflow; however, in mixed regimes and snowmelt-driven basins these results are spatially scattered. Hence, this study supports that meteorological, hydrological, and physiographic attributes modulate the translation of climate variability into river hydrology. The results presented here unravel the joint effects of precipitation and seasonal temperature fluctuations through different hydrological regimes, across a region that encloses populated cities and water-intensive activities. © 2022. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. | Water Resources Research | 00431397 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021WR031860 | arte2021WR031860 | 58 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | catchment scale; climate variability; enso; hydrological regimes; streamflow sensitivity, chile; atmospheric pressure; climatology; rain; runoff; snow melting systems; storms; stream flow; catchment scale; central chile; climate variability; el nino; el nino southern oscillation; hydrological regime; la nina; low-high; snow melt; streamflow sensitivities; catchment; climate variation; el nino-southern oscillation; hydrological regime; rainfall; runoff; snowmelt; streamflow; catchments | Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management | Kreibich H.; Van Loon A.F.; Schröter K.; Ward P.J.; Mazzoleni M.; Sairam N.; Abeshu G.W.; Agafonova S.; AghaKouchak A.; Aksoy H.; Alvarez-Garreton C.; Aznar B.; Balkhi L.; Barendrecht M.H.; Biancamaria S.; Bos-Burgering L.; Bradley C.; Budiyono Y.; Buytaert W.; Capewell L.; Carlson H.; Cavus Y.; Couasnon A.; Coxon G.; Daliakopoulos I.; de Ruiter M.C.; Delus C.; Erfurt M.; Esposito G.; François D.; Frappart F.; Freer J.; Frolova N.; Gain A.K.; Grillakis M.; Grima J.O.; Guzmán D.A.; Huning L.S.; I... | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5 | Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3. © 2022, The Author(s). | Nature | 00280836 | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04917-5 | 80-86 | 608 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, climate change; droughts; floods; hydrology; risk management; climate change; data set; drought; flood damage; investment; vulnerability; article; climate change; drought; flooding; investment; risk management; hydrology; risk management | GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources, Division of Hydrology and River basin management, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Braunschweig, Germany; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX, United States; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation; University of California, Irvine, CA, United States; Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Operations Department, Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua S.A, Barcelona, Spain; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France; Department of Groundwater Management, Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, Jakarta, Indonesia; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Civil Engineering, Beykent University, Istanbul, Turkey; Graduate School, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbu... |
| Cross-continental hydroclimate proxies: Tree-rings in Central Chile reconstruct historical streamflow in Southeastern South American rivers | Lucas C.; Aguilera-Betti I.; Muñoz A.A.; Puchi P.; Sapriza G.; Profumo L.; Maxwell R.S.; Venegas-González A. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1177/03091333211067466 | Regional teleconnections permit cross-continental modeling of hydroclimate throughout the world. Tree-rings are a good hydroclimatic proxy used to reconstruct drought and streamflow in regions that respond to common global forcings. We used a multi-species dataset of 32 tree-ring width chronologies from Chile and Uruguay as a climate proxy to infer annual streamflow (Q) variability in the Negro River basin, a grassland-dominated watershed of lowland Southeastern South America. A positive linear correlation between tree-ring chronologies from Central Chile and annual Negro River instrumental streamflow from 1957 to 2012 indicated a cross-continental teleconnection between hydroclimate variability in Central Chile and Northeastern Uruguay. This relationship was mediated in part by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whereby the El Nino 3.4 Index was positively correlated with regional rainfall, annual tree growth, and Q anomalies. Despite the proximity of Uruguayan tree-ring chronologies to Negro River hydrometric stations, the Chilean tree-ring chronologies best predicted annual streamflow. Thus, using tree-ring data from four long-term moisture-sensitive chronologies of the species Cryptocarya alba in Central Chile (32–34°S), we present the first streamflow reconstruction (1890–2009) in the lower La Plata Basin. The reconstruction supports regional evidence for increasing frequency of extreme flood years over the past century in Uruguay. We demonstrate how climate teleconnections that mediate local hydroclimate variability permit the cross-continental reconstruction of streamflow, filling a major geographical gap in historical proxies for flooding and drought in grassland biomes of the southern hemisphere. © The Author(s) 2022. | Progress in Physical Geography | 03091333 | http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/03091333211067466 | 458-480 | 46 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | dendrohydrology; el niño; la plata river; southeastern south america; teleconnection; uruguay, chile; rio de la plata; rio negro basin; uruguay; dendrochronology; el nino; proxy climate record; river flow; streamflow; teleconnection; tree ring; watershed | Laboratorio Ecología Fluvial, Departamento del Agua, Centro Universitario Regional Litoral Norte, Universidad de la República, Paysandú, Uruguay; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Estudios Ambientales, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Estudios Ambientales, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Dipartimento Territorio e Sistemi Agro-Forestali (TESAF), Universitá degli Studi di Padova, Padova, Italy; PDU Sistemas Territoriales Complejos, Centro Universitario de Rivera, Universidad de la República, Uruguay; Department of Geospatial Science, Radford University, Radford, VA, United States; Hémera Centro de Observación de la Tierra, Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, Chile; Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia CR2, Valparaíso, Santiago, Chile; Centro Transdisciplinario de Estudios Ambientales y Desarrollo Humano Sostenible (CEAM), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias Antárticas y Subantárticas, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile |
| Atmospheric Blocking Trends and Seasonality around the Antarctic Peninsula | Marín J.C.; Bozkurt D.; Barrett B.S. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0323.1 | We analyze the seasonal evolution and trends of atmospheric blocking from 1979 to 2018 using a geopotential-height-based method over two domains, one located to the west (150°-90°W, 50°-70°S) and the other over and to the east (90°-30°W, 50°-70°S) of the Antarctic Peninsula. Spatial patterns of geopotential heights on days with blocking feature well-defined ridge axes over and west of much of South America, and days with the most extreme blocking (above the 99th percentile) showed upper-tropospheric ridge and cutoff low features that have been associated with extreme weather patterns. Blocking days were found to be more frequent in the first half of the period (1979-98) than the second (1999-2018) in all seasons in the west domain, whereas they seem to be more common over the eastern (peninsula) domain in 1999-2018 for austral winter, spring, and autumn, although these differences were not statistically significant. West of the Antarctic Peninsula, blocking days occur most frequently when the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is negative, whereas they are more frequent over the peninsula when the AAO is positive. We propose that our blocking index can be used to indicate atmospheric blocking affecting the Antarctic Peninsula, similar to how the Greenland blocking index has been used to diagnose blocking, its trends, and impacts over the Arctic. © 2022 American Meteorological Society | Journal of Climate | 08948755 | https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/35/12/JCLI-D-21-0323.1.xml | 3803-3818 | 35 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | antarctic peninsula; antarctica; west antarctica; climatology; antarctic oscillation; antarctic peninsula; antarctica; atmospheric blocking; blockings; geo-potential heights; reanalysis; reanalysis data; seasonal variability; trend; antarctic oscillation; atmospheric blocking; seasonal variation; seasonality; trend analysis; earth atmosphere, antarctica; blocking; reanalysis data; seasonal variability; trends | Departamento de Meteorología, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Estudios Atmosféricos y Astroestadística, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Investigación Oceanográfica COPAS COASTAL, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Oceanography Department, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD, United States |
| Direct effects of tephra fallout from the Puyehue–Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex on Nothofagus pumilio ring widths in northern Patagonia | Montiel M.; González M.E.; Christie D.A.; Muñoz A.A.; Crisafulli C.M. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1016/j.dendro.2022.125998 | We evaluated the radial growth response of adult Nothofagus pumilio (Poepp. et Endl) Krasser trees affected by tephra deposition following historical volcanic eruptions of the Puyehue–Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (PCCVC) in northern Patagonia. Standard tree–ring width chronologies were developed for trees from two sites that were affected by up to 55 cm of tephra during the 2011 eruption, which allowed us to detect the general tree–growth response to eruptions VEI ≥ 3 and VEI ≤ 2. The tree growth trend satisfactorily followed the mean temperature record (r = 0.42); however, the analysis of studentized residuals identified outliers (≥ ± 2 SD) directly related to the volcanic eruptions of the years 1921–1922 and 2011 and the respective post–eruption years, while for the 1960 eruption and following year, they largely exceeded the mean value of the residuals. The large amount of tephra deposited during the 1921–22 and 2011 eruptions caused physical damage to the tree canopy leading to the appearance of white rings and to locally absent rings. The rate of change in radial growth of trees during these eruptions presented significant declines in relation to the growth of five years before the eruption and to the following year. The low amount of tephra deposited during the 1960 eruption did not cause damage to the stands and trees increased their radial growth. In general, trees that had reduced radial growth experienced a remarkable recovery starting in the second or third post–eruption year. The amount of tephra deposited and the time of year of the volcanic eruptions had an important influence on tree rings. Some ecophysiological causes that could explain the growth responses of N. pumilio to tephra fall are discussed herein. Our study may provide useful insights to clarify the uncertain characteristics of some eruptions in the past or to detect the occurrence of large, undocumented volcanic eruptions throughout the Andes. © 2022 Elsevier GmbH | Dendrochronologia | 11257865 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1125786522000789 | art125998 | 75 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, disturbances; tephra–fall; tree rings; volcanism; white rings | Escuela de Graduados, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Laboratorio de Ecología de Bosques, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Estudios Ambientales, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2, Chile; Pacific Northwest Research Station, US Forest Service, US Department of Agriculture, Amboy, Washington, United States |
| Glacier and terrestrial ecosystem evolution in the Chilotan archipelago sector of northwestern Patagonia since the Last Glacial Termination | Moreno P.I.; Fercovic E.I.; Soteres R.L.; Ugalde P.I.; Sagredo E.A.; Villa-Martínez R.P. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104240 | We examine the glacier, terrestrial ecosystem, and climate evolution since the Last Glacial Termination (T1) based on glacial sediments/landform assemblages and palynological data from the Chilotan archipelago (41°30′S-43°30′S), northwestern Patagonia. Deglacial warming drove recession of the Golfo Corcovado glacier lobe from the Last Glacial Maximum moraines in the interior of Isla Grande de Chiloé (IGC) before ∼17.8 ka, along with a rapid and irreversible trend toward arboreal dominance. Subsequent glacier stabilization led to deposition of the innermost moraines in eastern IGC and adjacent islands sometime between ∼17.5–16.9 ka, followed by an acceleration in glacial retreat that vacated the Chilotan Interior Sea in ∼200 years or less. Early successional cold-tolerant shade-intolerant trees prevailed during the initial stages of T1, followed by temperate rainforests dominated by thermophilous shade-tolerant species between ∼15–14.5 ka. A mixed forest with cold-tolerant hygrophilous conifers established between ∼14.5–12.6 ka, implying cooler climate and stronger Southern Westerly Wind (SWW) influence during the Antarctic Cold Reversal. Stand-replacing fires favored early successional shade-intolerant trees, shrubs, and herbs between ∼12.6–10.8 ka in response to milder temperatures and weaker SWW during Younger Dryas time. The early Holocene (∼10.8–7.5 ka) features a maximum in shade-intolerant thermophilous trees, absence of conifers, and peak fire activity, signaling a warm/dry interval with minimum SWW influence. Cooler/wetter conditions have prevailed over the last ∼7500 years driven by strong SWW influence. We conclude that Patagonian glaciers and terrestrial ecosystems responded simultaneously to climate changes at regional, hemispheric, and global scales multiple times since T1. We adhere to the concept that millennial-scale variations in the SWW linked the response of the hydro- bio and cryosphere across the southern mid- and high southern latitudes, and were teleconnected with northern hemisphere events through the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, latitudinal shifts in the Intertropical convergence zone, and deep ocean circulation. © 2022 Elsevier B.V. | Earth-Science Reviews | 00128252 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012825222003245 | art104240 | 235 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | glacier; holocene; last glacial maximum; last glacial termination; northwestern patagonia; southern westerly; vegetation and fire history; winds, chile; chiloe island; los lagos; climate variation; fire history; glacial deposit; glacier dynamics; holocene; last glacial; paleoclimate; signaling; terrestrial ecosystem | Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Investigación GAIA-Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile |
| Using Commercial Aircraft Meteorological Data to Assess the Heat Budget of the Convective Boundary Layer Over the Santiago Valley in Central Chile | Muñoz R.C.; Whiteman C.D.; Garreaud R.D.; Rutllant J.A.; Hidalgo J. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1007/s10546-021-00685-3 | The World Meteorological Organization Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) programme refers to meteorological data gathered by commercial aircraft and made available to weather services. It has become a major source of upper-air observations whose assimilation into global models has greatly improved their performance. Near busy airports, AMDAR data generate semi-continuous vertical profiles of temperature and winds, which have been utilized to produce climatologies of atmospheric-boundary-layer (ABL) heights and general characterizations of specific cases. We analyze 2017–2019 AMDAR data for Santiago airport, located in the centre of a 40 × 100 km2 subtropical semi-arid valley in central Chile, at the foothills of the Andes. Profiles derived from AMDAR data are characterized and validated against occasional radiosondes launched in the valley and compared with routine operational radiosondes and with reanalysis data. The cold-season climatology of AMDAR temperatures reveals a deep nocturnal inversion reaching up to 700 m above ground level (a.g.l.) and daytime warming extending up to 1000 m a.g.l. Convective-boundary-layer (CBL) heights are estimated based on AMDAR profiles and the daytime heat budget of the CBL is assessed. The CBL warming variability is well explained by the surface sensible heat flux estimated with sonic anemometer measurements at one site, provided advection of the cool coastal ABL existing to the west is included. However, the CBL warming accounts for just half of the mean daytime warming of the lower troposphere, suggesting that rather intense climatological diurnal subsidence affects the dynamics of the daytime valley ABL. Possible sources of this subsidence are discussed. © 2022, The Author(s). | Boundary-Layer Meteorology | 00068314 | https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10546-021-00685-3 | 295-319 | 183 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | aircraft meteorological data relay (amdar) programme; chile; convective boundary layer; heat budget; santiago; valley boundary layer, chile; metropolitana; aircraft; airports; atmospheric boundary layer; budget control; climatology; heat convection; heat flux; radiosondes; aircraft meteorological data relay program; central chile; chile; commercial aircraft; convective boundary layers; data relays; heat budget; meteorological data; santiago; valley boundary layer; aircraft; anemometer; climatology; convective boundary layer; heat budget; radiosonde; sensible heat flux; subsidence; troposphere; vertical profile; landforms | Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, United States; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile and Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile and Centre for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones (CEAZA), La Serena, Chile; Dirección Meteorológica de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Examining the potential of Austrocedrus chilensis tree rings as indicators of past late-spring frost events in central Chile | Muñoz-Salazar T.; LeQuesne C.; Rozas V.; Christie D.A.; Rojas-Badilla M. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1016/j.dendro.2022.125962 | Austrocedrus chilensis is a South American conifer broadly distributed across the subtropical and extratropical Andes that is widely utilized in tree-ring studies. This species has clear annual growth rings that are sensitive to the moisture supply and has been extensively used to reconstruct the past hydroclimate during the last millennium. Despite a great number of dendrochronological studies based on tree-ring width, little is known about the potential of the species to record intra-annual anomalies and particularly frost rings. In this study, the main traits of A. chilensis frost rings were studied and the ability of this endemic Cupressaceae to record spring frosts at five sites across a latitudinal gradient between the Mediterranean and Northern Patagonian Andes was evaluated. The average ages of trees in the study sites varied from 168 to 343 years, with minimum and maximum ages of 33 and 919 years. The results indicated that 85% of the frost rings occurred at the beginning of the earlywood and 15% showed a mid intra-ring position. Regarding the portion of the ring circumference affected by frost damage in cross sections, 59% of the injuries partially affected the entire ring, 30% affected the complete ring circumference, and 11% resulted in a ring fracture. Freezing temperatures that generated frost rings in A. chilensis from the upper treeline coincided with events below 0 °C recorded in the agricultural Central Valley of Chile. We estimated the potential time window of the formation of A. chilensis frost rings over a two and a half month period from the end of September to mid-November (early spring). Our results indicated that tree age was a determinant factor affecting the ability of trees to record frost rings. The maximum frequency of frost rings occurred at 12 years and the maximum age at which 95% of the total frost injuries occurred within our network was about 120 years. Both the exceptional longevity and the excellent state of preservation of relict wood demonstrates that A. chilensis frost rings provide a reliable proxy for monitoring and reconstructing late-spring frost events in central Chile. © 2022 Elsevier GmbH | Dendrochronologia | 11257865 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S112578652200042X | art125962 | 74 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | anatomical signals; conifer; freezing damage; late-spring frost proxy; treeline populations, andes; central valley [chile]; chile; patagonia; anatomy; bioindicator; coniferous tree; dendrochronology; frost; latitudinal gradient; longevity; tree ring; treeline | Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Escuela de Graduados, Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Alimentarias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; iuFOR-EiFAB, Departamento de Ciencias Agroforestales, Campus Duques de Soria, Universidad de Valladolid, Soria, Spain; Santiago, Chile; Cape Horn International Center (CHIC), Punta Arenas, Chile; Escuela de Graduados, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile |
| Ensuring access to water in an emergency context: Towards an overexploitation and contamination of water resources? | Nicolas-Artero C. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1177/09646639211031626 | This article shows how geo-legal devices created to deal with environmental crisis situations make access to drinking water precarious and contribute to the overexploitation and contamination of water resources. It relies on qualitative methods (interviews, observations, archive work) to identify and analyse two geo-legal devices applied in the case study of the Elqui Valley in Chile. The first device, generated by the Declaration of Water Scarcity, allows private sanitation companies to concentrate water rights and extend their supply network, thus producing an overexploitation of water resources. In the context of mining pollution, the second device is structured around the implementation of the Rural Drinking Water Programme and the distribution of water by tankers, which has made access to drinking water more precarious for the population and does nothing to prevent pollution. © The Author(s) 2021. | Social and Legal Studies | 09646639 | http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09646639211031626 | 459-476 | 31 | Thomson Reuters SSCI | nan, chile; emergency; environmental crisis; geo-legal devices; legal geography; water | Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Chile |
| Chlorine-36 Surface Exposure Dating of Late Holocene Moraines and Glacial Mass Balance Modeling, Monte Sierra Nevada, South-Central Chilean Andes (38°S) | Price B.N.; Stansell N.D.; Fernández A.; Licciardi J.M.; Lesnek A.J.; Muñoz A.; Sorensen M.K.; Jaque Castillo E.; Shutkin T.; Ciocca I.; Galilea I. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.3389/feart.2022.848652 | The development of robust chronologies of Neoglaciation from individual glaciers throughout the high-altitude Andes can provide fundamental knowledge of influences such as regional temperature and precipitation variability, and aid in predicting future changes in the Andean climate system. However, records of Late Holocene glaciation from the Central Chilean Andes are sparse, and often poorly constrained. Here, we present 36Cl surface exposure ages, dendrochronologic constraints, and glacial mass balance modeling simulations of Late Holocene glacier fluctuations in the Central-South Chilean Andes. A series of concentric moraine ridges were identified on Monte Sierra Nevada (38°S), where exposure dating of basaltic boulders was used to establish a chronology of ice recession. We infer that moraine abandonment of the most distal ridge in the valley commenced by ∼4.2 ka, and was followed by glacier margin retreat to an up-valley position. Exposure ages of the oldest Late Holocene boulders (∼2.5–0.8 ka) along the marginal extents of the moraine complex indicate fluctuations of the glacier terminus prior to ∼0.65 ka. A final expansion of the ice margin reoccupied the position of the 4.2 ka moraine, with abatement from the outermost composite moraine occurring by ∼0.70 ka, as constrained by tree-ring data from live Araucaria araucana trees. Finally, a series of nested moraines dating to ∼0.45–0.30 ka, formed from a pulsed ice recession during the latest Holocene when the lower reaches of the glacial snout was most likely debris mantled. A distributed temperature index model combined with a glacier flow model was used to quantify an envelope of possible climatic conditions of Late Holocene glaciation. The glacial modeling results suggest conditions were ∼1.5°C colder and 20% wetter during peak Neoglaciation relative to modern conditions. These records also suggest a near-coeval record of Late Holocene climate variability between the middle and high southern latitudes. Furthermore, this study presents some of the youngest 36Cl exposure ages reported for moraines in the Andes, further supporting this method as a valuable geochronologic tool for assessing Late Holocene landscape development. Copyright © 2022 Price, Stansell, Fernández, Licciardi, Lesnek, Muñoz, Sorensen, Jaque Castillo, Shutkin, Ciocca and Galilea. | Frontiers in Earth Science | 22966463 | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.848652/full | art848652 | 10 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | andes; chile; boulder; chlorine isotope; cosmogenic radionuclide; dendrochronology; glacier flow; glacier mass balance; glacier retreat; holocene; ice margin; moraine; paleoclimate; tree ring; valley glacier, alpine glaciers; cosmogenic nuclides; dendrochronology; glacial geomorphology; little ice age; moraine chronology; paleoclimate; temperature index model | Department of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Northern Illinois University, Dekalb, IL, United States; Department of Geography, Mountain GeoScience Group, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Department of Earth Sciences, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Queens College, City University of New York, Queens, NY, United States; Institute of Geography, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research CR2, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate Action, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Department of Geography, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; The Ohio State University, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, Department of Geography, Columbus, OH, United States; The Ohio State University, Department of Geography, Columbus, OH, United States |
| Coping Strategies and Tactics to Deal With Social Vulnerability in the Flood Disaster of March 25, 2015, in Chañaral and Diego de Almagro, Chile | Pérez Tello S.; Aldunce Ide P.; Flores-Haverbeck F.; Mena Maldonado D.; Castro Correa C.P.; Wyndham Vásquez K. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.3389/fclim.2022.763413 | A socio-natural disaster event exacerbates pre-existing socio-economic crises and disrupts the life projects of the people affected, generating the deployment of strategic or tactical actions to deal with it. When societies have populations living in conditions of social vulnerability prior to disasters, such actions are more complex and difficult to manage. On March 25, 2015 (25M), the inhabitants of the towns of Chañaral and Diego de Almagro, in the Atacama Region of Chile, were faced with a flood that produced a crisis of great magnitude. This qualitative research describes the actions the inhabitants used to reduce social vulnerability, before, during and after the emergency. These actions were analyzed to describe the extent of planning, meanings, resources and structures of opportunities present in the actions. Content analysis was carried out on semi-structured interviews with 38 affected people, selected using intentional sampling technique together with snowball sampling. Subjective resources were identified: sense of family, solidarity, autonomy and restitution of rights. The superimposed mobilization of these resources resulted in a complex situation of resilience. It is concluded that the way of learning actions includes family and cultural habits, daily learning and previous experiences, and imitation, among others. Recommendations are made to be considered for the reduction of risks of socio-natural disasters. Specifically, policies that include educational strategies that are based on theways of acting shown by the communities. Copyright © 2022 Pérez Tello, Aldunce Ide, Flores-Haverbeck, Mena Maldonado, Castro Correa and Wyndham Vásquez. | Frontiers in Climate | 26249553 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.763413 | art763413 | 4 | Thomson Reuters ISI | assets; chile; floods; march 25 (25m); resilience; social vulnerability; socio-natural disaster; strategies and tactics, nan | Department of Psychology, Faculty of Social Science, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Disaster Risk Reduction, Centro de Investigación Transdisciplinaria en Riesgo de Desastres (CITRID), University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Department of Environmental Science and Renewable Natural Resources, Faculty of Agricultural Science, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Renewable Natural Resources, Faculty of Agricultural Science, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geography, Faculty of Architecture and Urbanism, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Hydroclimate and ENSO Variability Recorded by Oxygen Isotopes From Tree Rings in the South American Altiplano | Rodriguez-Caton M.; Andreu-Hayles L.; Daux V.; Vuille M.; Varuolo-Clarke A.M.; Oelkers R.; Christie D.A.; D’Arrigo R.; Morales M.S.; Palat Rao M.; Srur A.M.; Vimeux F.; Villalba R. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1029/2021GL095883 | Hydroclimate variability in tropical South America is strongly regulated by the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM). However, past precipitation changes are poorly constrained due to limited observations and high-resolution paleoproxies. We found that summer precipitation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability are well registered in tree-ring stable oxygen isotopes (δ18OTR) of Polylepis tarapacana in the Chilean and Bolivian Altiplano in the Central Andes (18–22°S, ∼4,500 m a.s.l.) with the northern forests having the strongest climate signal. More enriched δ18OTR values were found at the southern sites likely due to the increasing aridity toward the southwest of the Altiplano. The climate signal of P. tarapacana δ18OTR is the combined result of moisture transported from the Amazon Basin, modulated by the SASM, ENSO, and local evaporation, and emerges as a novel tree-ring climate proxy for the southern tropical Andes. © 2022. The Authors. | Geophysical Research Letters | 00948276 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL095883 | arte2021GL095883 | 49 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, altiplano; amazon basin; andes; atmospheric pressure; climatology; forestry; isotopes; oxygen; climate signals; high resolution; hydroclimates; limited observations; oxygen isotopes; precipitation change; south america; summer monsoon; summer precipitation; tree rings; climate signal; el nino-southern oscillation; hydrometeorology; oxygen isotope; paleoclimate; proxy climate record; seasonal variation; tree ring; tropics | Tree Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA, United States; CREAF, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallés), Barcelona, Spain; ICREA, Barcelona, Spain; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ/IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY, United States; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Cs. Ambientales (IANIGLA), CONICET Mendoza, Argentina; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental. Huancayo, Peru; Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Plant Science, University of California, Davis, CA, United States; HydroSciences Montpellier (HSM), UMR 5151 (UM, CNRS, IRD), Montpellier, France; Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), UMR 8212 (CEA, CNRS, UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France |
| Are Citizens Ready for Active Climate Engagement or Stuck in a Game of Blame? Local Perceptions of Climate Action and Citizen Participation in Chilean Patagonia | Sapiains R.; Azócar G.; Moraga P.; Valenzuela C.; Aldunce P.; Cornejo C.; Rojas M.; Pulgar A.; Medina L.; Bozkurt D. | Agua y Extremos; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 2022 | 10.3390/su141912034 | Deep structural transformations aimed at strengthening climate action and community participation are occurring in Chile, especially after the social unrest of October 2019. The ongoing political crisis has even generated the unprecedented possibility of writing a new constitution through an entirely democratic process. This article explores to what extent these structural transformations are also associated with cognitive and relational changes in the population, especially in terms of community participation. An online survey (n = 1.117) was applied to people over 18 years old in Punta Arenas in November 2020. This is the southernmost city of the American continent, one of the areas most affected by climate change, highly isolated from the rest of the country, and with a strong regional ecological identity. Results show that climate change is perceived as the main environmental problem affecting the city, with multiple negative consequences, but also with some potentially positive impacts. At the same time, environmental and constitutional expectations suggest the state of the environment is deemed to be critical for the future of the city. However, a traditional top-down understanding of community participation still prevails as most participants perceive the citizens’ role in dealing with environmental issues as limited to individual, passive, and reactive actions, or reduced to being responsible consumers. These results show that transforming institutions, rules and regulations alone does not guarantee a broader engagement of local communities in more ambitious, committed, and lasting climate action, even with a high climate change concern in the population. Creating strategies aimed at more profound cognitive and relational changes from a bottom-up perspective will also be necessary to avoid negative transformation trajectories. © 2022 by the authors. | Sustainability (Switzerland) | 20711050 | https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/19/12034 | art12034 | 14 | Thomson Reuters SCIE, SSCI | chile; magallanes; patagonia; punta arenas; action plan; climate change; democracy; environmental issue; local participation; perception; political conflict; questionnaire survey; regulatory framework; strategic approach, chile; climate change; community participation; constitution; transformation | Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, 8320000, Chile; Faculty of Social Sciences, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 7750000, Chile; Centro de Investigación GAIA Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, 6200000, Chile; Faculty of Law, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 7500000, Chile; Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 8820000, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 8320000, Chile; Independent Researcher, Punta Arenas, 6200000, Chile; Department of Meteorology, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, 2340000, Chile |
| The last millennium viewed from a fine-resolution freshwater diatom record from northwestern Patagonia | Sepúlveda-Zúñiga E.; Maidana N.I.; Villacís L.A.; Sagredo E.A.; Moreno P.I. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107806 | Little is known about the response of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to changes in climatic and human influences during the last millennium in northwestern Patagonia (NWP, 40°-44°S). By virtue of their sensitivity and specificity, diatoms are ideal for examining past changes in aquatic ecosystems and deciphering the ranges of variability under natural and human-induced conditions. To date, however, very few fossils diatom studies have examined in detail the environmental evolution during the last millennium throughout Patagonia. Here we present a fine-resolution diatom record from a lake-sediment core collected from Lago Pichilaguna (41°S), a closed-basin and shallow lake with a small catchment area located in the lowlands of the Chilean Lake District in NWP. The record spans the last millennium with a median time resolution of ∼12 years between samples, and shows abundant small Aulacoseira spp. between ∼1000-900 and ∼600-300 cal yr BP, which alternate in dominance with small fragilarioids and small raphid diatoms between ∼900-600 and ∼300-200 cal yr BP. A rapid shift to planktonic diatoms started at ∼200 cal yr BP and led to their modern dominance. We interpret centennial-scale changes in temperature, precipitation, and lake turbulence, with warm/dry/stratified phases between ∼1000-900 and ∼600-300 cal yr BP related to weak westerly winds, and intervals of cold/wet and mixed water column conditions between ∼900-600 and ∼300-200 cal yr BP, favored by stronger winds. The transition from periphytic to planktonic diatoms that started at ∼200 cal yr BP suggests juxtaposition of the warmest/driest phase of the last millennium and the onset of large-scale disturbance by Chilean/European settlers in NWP. Our results reveal that human disturbance during historical time surpassed the natural ranges of variability and resilience of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems over the last millennium, generating abrupt changes in biodiversity, species composition, and community structure. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd | Quaternary Science Reviews | 02773791 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379122004371 | art107806 | 296 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | cumbria; england; lake district; patagonia; united kingdom; aquatic ecosystems; biodiversity; catchments; phytoplankton; wind; condition; fine resolution; lake sediment cores; last millenniums; northwestern patagonium; patagonia; periphytons; planktonic diatoms; southern westerly winds; tychoplanktonic diatom; catchment; diatom; lacustrine deposit; periphyton; resilience; westerly; lakes, lake sediment cores; northwestern patagonia; periphyton; planktonic diatoms; southern westerly winds; tychoplanktonic diatoms | Instituto de Geografía, Facultad de Historia, Geografía y Ciencia Política, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Biodiversidad y Biología Experimental y Aplicada, CONICET – UBA, Ciudad Universitaria, Pab. II, C1428EHA, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Departamento de Biodiversidad y Biología Experimental, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina; Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas and Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Estación Patagonia de Investigaciones Interdisciplinarias UC, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Glacier fluctuations in the northern Patagonian Andes (44°S) imply wind-modulated interhemispheric in-phase climate shifts during Termination 1 | Soteres R.L.; Sagredo E.A.; Kaplan M.R.; Martini M.A.; Moreno P.I.; Reynhout S.A.; Schwartz R.; Schaefer J.M. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1038/s41598-022-14921-4 | The Last Glacial Termination (T1) featured major changes in global circulation systems that led to a shift from glacial to interglacial climate. While polar ice cores attest to an antiphased thermal pattern at millennial timescales, recent well-dated moraine records from both hemispheres suggest in-phase fluctuations in glaciers through T1, which is inconsistent with the bipolar see-saw paradigm. Here, we present a glacier chronology based on 30 new 10Be surface exposure ages from well-preserved moraines in the Lago Palena/General Vintter basin in northern Patagonia (~ 44°S). We find that the main glacier lobe underwent profound retreat after 19.7 ± 0.7 ka. This recessional trend led to the individualization of the Cerro Riñón glacier by ~ 16.3 ka, which underwent minor readvances at 15.9 ± 0.5 ka during Heinrich Stadial 1, during the Antarctic Cold Reversal with successive maxima at 13.5 ± 0.4, 13.1 ± 0.4, and 13.1 ± 0.5 ka, and a minor culmination at 12.5 ± 0.4 ka during Younger Dryas time. We conclude that fluctuations of Patagonian glaciers during T1 were controlled primarily by climate anomalies brought by shifts in the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) locus. We posit that the global covariation of mountain glaciers during T1 was linked to variations in atmospheric CO2 (atmCO2) promoted by the interplay of the SWW-Southern Ocean system at millennial timescales. © 2022, The Author(s). | Scientific Reports | 20452322 | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-14921-4 | art10842 | 12 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | antarctic regions; climate; ice cover; wind; antarctica; climate; ice cover; wind, nan | Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Campus San Joaquín, Avda. Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago, Chile; Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, ANID-Millennium Science Initiative, Santiago, Chile; Estación Patagonia de Investigaciones Interdisciplinarias UC, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de La Tierra (CONICET-UNC), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina; Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Geología, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States |
| Glacial geomorphology of the central and southern Chilotan Archipelago (42.2°S–43.5°S), northwestern Patagonia | Soteres R.L.; Sagredo E.A.; Moreno P.I.; Lowell T.V.; Alloway B.V. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1080/17445647.2021.2008538 | We present a geomorphic map of the glacial landforms associated with the Golfo Corcovado ice lobe in northwestern Patagonia. Built upon prior studies, our map elaborates on the central and southern sectors of Isla Grande de Chiloé and neighboring islands. Through a combination of remote sensing techniques and exhaustive fieldwork, we identified a suite of ice-marginal, subglacial, and glaciofluvial features created by the Golfo Corcovado ice lobe during four maxima within the last glacial cycle, in none of which the ice-front reached the Pacific coast of Isla Grande de Chiloé. Our mapping builds a foundation and provides insights for future interdisciplinary research on the Late Quaternary sequence of glacial and paleoclimatic events in this key sector of northwestern Patagonia. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. | Journal of Maps | 17445647 | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17445647.2021.2008538 | 151-167 | 18 | Thomson Reuters SCIE, SSCI | nan, chilean lake district; glacial geomorphology; isla grande de chiloé; last glacial maximum; last glacial termination; northwestern patagonia | Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, Millennium Science Initiative, Santiago, Chile; Estación Patagonia de Investigaciones Interdisciplinarias UC, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Chile; Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geology, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States; School of Environment, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand |
| An extraordinary dry season precipitation event in the subtropical Andes: Drivers, impacts and predictability | Valenzuela R.; Garreaud R.; Vergara I.; Campos D.; Viale M.; Rondanelli R. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100472 | A major storm impacted the subtropical Andes during 28–31 January 2021 producing 4-days accumulated precipitation up to 100 mm over central-south Chile. These are high accumulations even for winter events but the storm occurred in the middle of the summer when precipitation is virtually absent, conferring it an extraordinary character. Similar storms have occurred only 2–3 times in the past century. The January 2021 event included periods of high rainfall intensity, hail and lighting, causing dozens of landslides and flash floods with the concomitant social impacts and economical losses. Here we examine the meteorological drivers of this storm at multiples scales, its climatological context, the associated surface impacts, and some aspects of its predictability. About a week before the storm development over central Chile, a large-scale perturbation in the central South Pacific set the stage for the formation of a zonal jet aloft and zonal atmospheric river (ZAR) that extended eastward until reaching the west coast of South America. The ZAR landfalled at 39°S and its subsequent northward displacement resulted in copious orographic precipitation over the Andes and adjacent lowlands, concomitant with a relatively warm environment during the first phase of the storm (28–29 January). During the second phase (30–31 January) the ZAR decayed rapidly but left behind significant amount of water vapor and the formation of a cut-off low (COL) in its poleward flank. The COL facilitated both advection of cyclonic vorticity and cold air at mid-levels, setting the environment for deep convection, intense rain showers, significant lightning activity, and hail. An assessment of the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) indicates that the model captured well the 96-h precipitation accumulation (28–31 January) in terms of timing and spatial extent. However, specific zones with the largest accumulations varied as a function of lead time. The more stable precipitation during the ZAR phase was better predicted than the convective precipitation during the COL phase. Proper dissemination of these forecast and recently established infrastructure contributed to ease the impact of this extraordinary event on the general population. © 2022 The Authors | Weather and Climate Extremes | 22120947 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212094722000548 | art100472 | 37 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | andes; chile; pacific ocean; pacific ocean (south); south america; advection; atmospheric moisture; cold air; dry season; lightning; precipitation (climatology); precipitation intensity; prediction; subtropical region; water vapor, atmospheric rivers; extreme precipitation; landsides; subtropical andes | Universidad de O'Higgins, Rancagua, Chile; Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2), Santiago, Chile; Instituto Andino Patagónico de Tecnologías Biológicas y Geoambientales (IPATEC), Bariloche, Argentina; Dirección Meteorológica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), Mendoza, Argentina |
| Sharp Increase of Extreme Turbidity Events Due To Deglaciation in the Subtropical Andes | Vergara I.; Garreaud R.; Ayala Á. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1029/2021JF006584 | Climate change may affect sediment fluvial export from high mountain regions, leading to downstream environmental disruptions and direct impacts on human activities. In this paper, three decades (1990–2020) of turbidity measurements, along with climate and hydro-glaciological variables, were used to investigate the interannual and interdecadal variability in the number of extreme turbidity events (ETE) in the glacierized Maipo River basin, located in the western subtropical Andes. ETE are defined as a sequence of days (most often 1 or 2) during which the daily maximum turbidity was in the 99% quantile of the entire study period. Some of these events compromised the drinking water provision for the city of Santiago, with more than 6 million inhabitants. ETE are more frequent during summer and are mostly associated with melt-favourable conditions. The number of ETE tends to increase in summers with large glacier ice melt and low snowmelt (outside or over glaciers). Most notable, the mean annual number of ETE exhibits a 6-fold increase in the last decade compared with the 1990–2010 period. After 2010, ETE also shifted their seasonal maximum from late spring to mid-summer and their occurrence became strongly coupled with large ice melt rates. We hypothesize that such regime change was caused by an enhanced hydrological connectivity of subglacial sediment pools that increased the sensitivity of the sediment system to glacier melt. The latter is in line with recent research and is consistent with the ongoing glacier retreat due to strong regional warming and drying. © 2022. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. | Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface | 21699003 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021JF006584 | arte2021JF006584 | 127 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, chile; maipo basin; climate change; deglaciation; extreme event; fluvial deposit; glacial deposit; glacier retreat; sediment transport; turbidity | IPATEC, CONICET-UNCo, Bariloche, Argentina; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research Santiago, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), La Serena, Chile |
| Exploring the association between landslides and fluvial suspended sediment in a semi-arid basin in central Chile | Vergara I.; Garreaud R.; Moreiras S.; Araneo D.; Beigt D. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.1016/j.geomorph.2022.108129 | The systematic monitoring of landslides is an essential input for their characterization and subsequent reduction of their risk. Along the western subtropical Andes, field monitoring is scarce, so alternative methods that can improve the monitoring are valuable. In this work, the capacity of fluvial suspended sediment to detect the occurrence of landslides in a basin was explored, emphasizing how the relationship varies depending on the hydro-sedimentological variable, the triggering causal factor and the landslide type. The values of suspended sediment concentration (SSC), water discharge (Q) and specific suspended sediment yield (SSY) associated with mass movements were collected from a fluviometric station, as well as maxima of these variables that were not associated with landslides. With these data, different General Linear Models were constructed considering possible non-linear effects of the covariates. Flow-type landslides triggered by rain (most of the events) are correctly predicted, especially using the linear effects of SSC and Q. For this mass movement type the prediction is suitable even for events triggered by isolated, short-lived rains, which are difficult to detect in mountainous areas with meteorological devices. © 2022 Elsevier B.V. | Geomorphology | 0169555X | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169555X22000228 | art108129 | 402 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | geo-climatic hazard; landslides; subtropical andes; suspended sediment, chile; fluvial deposit; landslide; mass movement; semiarid region; suspended sediment | IPATEC, CONICET-UNCo, Bariloche, Argentina; University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; IANIGLA, CONICET, Mendoza, Argentina; National University of Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina |
| Evolution of Glacial Lake Cochrane During the Last Glacial Termination, Central Chilean Patagonia (∼47°S) | Vásquez A.; Flores-Aqueveque V.; Sagredo E.; Hevia R.; Villa-Martínez R.; Moreno P.I.; Antinao J.L. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.3389/feart.2022.817775 | Large ice-dammed lakes developed along the eastern margin of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) during the Last Glacial Termination (T1). Their spatial/temporal evolution, however, remains poorly constrained despite their importance for deciphering fluctuations of the shrinking PIS, isostatic adjustments, and climate forcing. Here we examine the distribution and age of shoreline features deposited or sculpted by Glacial Lake Cochrane (GLC) in the Lago Cochrane/Pueyrredón (LCP) basin, Central Patagonia, following recession of the LCP glacier lobe from its final Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) moraines. GLC drained initially toward the Atlantic Ocean and continuing ice shrinking opened new drainage routes allowing the discharge toward the Pacific Ocean. We identify five clusters of lake terraces, shorelines, and deltas between elevations ∼600–500 (N5), ∼470–400 (N4), ∼360–300 (N3), ∼230–220 (N2), and ∼180–170 masl (N1) throughout the LCP basin. The distribution of these clusters and associated glaciolacustrine deposits provide constraints for the evolving position of the damming glacier bodies. Elevation gradients within the landform clusters reveal glacio-isostatic adjustments that enable us to quantify the magnitude of deglacial rebound and construct isostatically corrected surfaces for the different phases in the evolution of GLC. Our chronology, based principally on radiocarbon dates from lake sediment cores and new OSL dating, suggests that these phases developed between ∼20.7–19.3 ka (N5), ∼19.3–14.8 ka (N4), ∼14.8–11.3 ka (N3), and shortly thereafter (N2 and N1). The N3 landforms are the most ubiquitous, well-preserved, and voluminous, attributes that resulted from a ∼3,500-year long period of glacial stability, enhanced sediment supply by peak precipitation regime, and profuse snow and ice melting during the most recent half of T1. This scenario differs from the cold and dry conditions that prevailed during the brief N5 phase and the moderate amount of precipitation during the N4 phase. We interpret the limited development of the N2 and N1 landforms as ephemeral stabilization events following the final and irreversible disappearance of GLC after N3. This event commenced shortly after the onset of an early Holocene westerly minimum at pan-Patagonian scale at ∼11.7 ka, contemporaneous with peak atmospheric and oceanic temperatures in the middle and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Copyright © 2022 Vásquez, Flores-Aqueveque, Sagredo, Hevia, Villa-Martínez, Moreno and Antinao. | Frontiers in Earth Science | 22966463 | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.817775/full | art817775 | 10 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; patagonia; glacial lake; glacioeustacy; holocene; last glacial maximum; postglacial rebound; spatial distribution; temporal distribution, central patagonia; glacial lake cochrane; isostatic rebound; last glacial termination; patagonian ice sheet | Departamento de Geología, FCFM, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, ANID Millennium Science Initiative, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Estación Patagonia de Investigaciones Interdisciplinarias UC, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Investigación Gaia-Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Centro de Estudios del Clima y la Resiliencia, Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Indiana Geological and Water Survey, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States |
| Analysis of Climate-Related Risks for Chile’s Coastal Settlements in the ARClim Web Platform | Winckler P.; Contreras-López M.; Garreaud R.; Meza F.; Larraguibel C.; Esparza C.; Gelcich S.; Falvey M.; Mora J. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.3390/w14223594 | The web-based tool ARClim provides an atlas of climate change-related risk assessments spanning over 50 environmental and productive sectors in Chile. This paper illustrates the implementation of ARClim on two coastal sectors, operational downtime in fishing coves and flooding in coastal settlements, aiming to provide a tool to visualize comparative estimates of risk, which may enable decision makers and stakeholders to prioritize adaptation measures. The risk is calculated as a function of the hazard, exposure, and sensitivity. Exposure and sensitivity are characterized using present day information. To assess the hazard, wave climate for a historical period (1985–2004) and a projection (2026–2045) were modeled with six general circulation models (GCMs) for an RCP8.5 scenario. Similarly, sea-level rise was computed from 21 GCMs. Results show that the flooding hazard is mostly dependent on sea-level rise, with waves playing a minor role. However, the flooding risk is highly variable along the coast, due to differences in the exposure, which strongly depends on the population of each settlement. The analysis of increased operational downtime in fishing coves also shows risk, which is dependent of the size of each site. Lastly, limitations of the analysis and opportunities for improvement are discussed. © 2022 by the authors. | Water (Switzerland) | 20734441 | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/22/3594 | art3594 | 14 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | climate change; coastal flooding; coastal flooding; fishing coves; operational downtime, chile; climate change; climate models; decision making; fisheries; floods; maintenance; risk assessment; sea level; climate related risks; coastal flooding; coastal settlement; fishing cove; general circulation model; operational downtime; related risk; sea level rise; web-based tools; atlas; climate change; coastal zone; fishing; flooding; hazards | Escuela de Ingeniería Civil Oceánica, Universidad de Valparaíso, Av. Brasil 1786, Valparaíso, 2362844, Chile; National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (CIGIDEN), Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, 7820436, Chile; Centro de Observación Marino para Estudios de Riesgos del Ambiente Costero (COSTAR), Universidad de Valparaíso, Av. Brasil 1786, Valparaíso, 2362844, Chile; Uruguay 556, of.304, Valparaíso, 2340145, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Av. Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, 8370449, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Universidad de Chile, Av. Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, 8370449, Chile; Facultad de Agronomía e Ingeniería Forestal, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, 7820436, Chile; Centro de Cambio Global UC, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avda. Libertador Bernardo O’Higgins 340, Santiago, 8331150, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2241, Valparaíso, 2362807, Chile; Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, 7820436, Chile; Instituto Milenio en Socio-Ecología Costera, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avda. Libertador Bernardo O’Higgins 340, Santiago, 8331150, Chile; Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avda. Libertador Bernardo O’Higgin... |
| Fuzzy logic modelling to assess high resolution spatial urban climatic risk impact in Valparaiso, Chile | Alamos,Nicolás;Billi,Marco;Amigo,Catalina;Urquiza,Anahí;Winckler,Patricio;Larraguibel,Cristian;Contreras,Manuel;Muñoz,Ariel;Videla,Jose;Vargas,Viviana;Casanova,Jessica;Ugalde,Antonio;Valdebenito,Carlos; | Agua y Extremos; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Ciudades Resilientes | 2022 | | This collection of maps contains a set of 5 layers assessing the risk of the population of the Viña del Mar - Valparaiso conurbation (Chile) in the face of threats of extreme heat, storm surges, floods, forest fires and landslides. The maps have a resolution at the chilean census block level. The layers show as available attributes the overall level of risk and its components: threat (A), exposure (E), sensitivity (S) and response capacity (CR). To estimate the risk, the indices of A, E, S and CR are combined through a fuzzy logic methodology, which considers the use of causality rules co-constructed and validated with local experts and stakeholders. It should be considered that the values presented by each census block on the maps represent an ordering of risk (and of A, E, S and CR), where higher values indicate a greater risk than apples with lower values. The results are ordinal, ranging from mild, through moderately mild, to moderate, high or very high. Moreover, they are not absolute values, but rather relative to the specific case study and should not comparable or extrapolated to other study areas. | | | https://osf.io/2xtvs/ | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Transformation Action Database / Base de datos acciones de transformación | Aldunce,Paulina;Guevara,Gabriela;Munoz,Francisca; | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.17605/OSF.IO/RC94T | This database consists of transformation initiatives, that include detailed metadata and description of processes that lead to profound changes, that translate into fundamentally different ways of thinking, actions, systems, and structures, usually large-scale. The content of the database began to be collected in 2020 and was obtained by reviewing scientific and non-scientific documents that have registered transformative actions in the world, web pages of national and international organizations, and conducting interviews, workshops and other information-gathering activities. | | | https://osf.io/rc94t/ | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Water margins in Chile: an integration between geographical space and institutional rules of water control; [Les marges hydriques au Chili : une imbrication entre l’espace et les règles institutionnelles de l’eau] | Nicolas-Artero C. | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.4000/geocarrefour.19805 | This paper studies the effects of the spread of monoculture on the irrigated systems of a semiarid valley in Chile. From legal geography, it proposes the notion of a fluvial geo-legal system to analyze the relationships between political economy, institutional rules of water and space. The ethnographic approach adopted reveals water margins, produced by the existence of a plural economy, represented by family or subsistence agriculture, whose water supply is based on preexisting irrigation practices. These margins are crossed by power relationships around the appropriation of space and water which crystallize in the seizure of institutional water rules. Their existence nuances the progress of an extractive frontier, the local effects of the Water Code and the modernization of techniques and conceptions of water. © 2022 Geocarrefour. All rights reserved. | Geocarrefour | 16274873 | http://journals.openedition.org/geocarrefour/19805 | 1-21 | 96 | Not Indexed | nan, chile; irrigated systems; legal geography; water; water margins | Postdoctorante au Centro de Ciencia sobre el Clima y la Resiliencia, Santiago du Chili, Chile |
| De l’usage du droit dans les résistances paysannes au Chili | Nicolas-Artero,Chloé; | Agua y Extremos | 2022 | 10.4000/com.13654 | | Cahiers d'Outre-Mer | 0373-5834, 1961-8603 | http://journals.openedition.org/com/13654 | 53-85 | LXXV | Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ) | | |
| Informe a las naciones: Marea roja» y cambio global: Elementos para la construcción de una gobernanza integrada de las Floraciones de Algas Nocivas (FAN) | Ugarte,A.;Romero,J.;Farías,L.;Sapiains,R.;Aparicio,P.;Ramajo,L.;Aguirre,C.;Masotti,I.;Jacques,M.;Aldunce,,P.;Alonso,C.;Azócar,G.;Bada,R.;Barrera,F.;Billi,M.;Boisier,J.;Carbonell,P.;de la Maza,L.;de la Torre,M.;Espinoza-González,O.;Faúndez,J.;Garreaud,R.;Guevara,G.;González,M.;Guzman,L.;Ibáñez,J.;Ibarra,C.;Marín,A.;Mitchell,R.;Moraga,P.;Narváez,D.;ORyan,R.;Pérez,C.;Pilgrin,A.;Pinilla,E.;Rondanelli,R.;Salinas,M.;Sánchez,R.;Sanzana,K.;Segura,C.;Valdebenito,P.;Valenzuela,D.;Vásquez,S.;Williams,C.; | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos; Zonas Costeras; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 2022 | | | | | https://www.cr2.cl/fan/ | 88 | | Not Indexed | | |
| Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models | Aguayo R.; León-Muñoz J.; Garreaud R.; Montecinos A. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1038/s41598-021-84807-4 | The decrease in freshwater input to the coastal system of the Southern Andes (40–45°S) during the last decades has altered the physicochemical characteristics of the coastal water column, causing significant environmental, social and economic consequences. Considering these impacts, the objectives were to analyze historical severe droughts and their climate drivers, and to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change in the intermediate future (2040–2070). Hydrological modelling was performed in the Puelo River basin (41°S) using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. The hydrological response and its uncertainty were compared using different combinations of CMIP projects (n = 2), climate models (n = 5), scenarios (n = 3) and univariate statistical downscaling methods (n = 3). The 90 scenarios projected increases in the duration, hydrological deficit and frequency of severe droughts of varying duration (1 to 6 months). The three downscaling methodologies converged to similar results, with no significant differences between them. In contrast, the hydroclimatic projections obtained with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 models found significant climatic (greater trends in summer and autumn) and hydrological (longer droughts) differences. It is recommended that future climate impact assessments adapt the new simulations as more CMIP6 models become available. © 2021, The Author(s). | Scientific Reports | 20452322 | http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84807-4 | art5530 | 11 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | | Centro EULA, Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Química Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro Interdisciplinario para la Investigación Acuícola (INCAR), Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2), Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro de Recursos Hídricos para la Agricultura y Minería (CRHIAM), Concepción, Chile |
| Recent changes in the low-level jet along the subtropical west coast of South America | Aguirre C.; Flores-Aqueveque V.; Vilches P.; Vásquez A.; Rutllant J.A.; Garreaud R. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.3390/atmos12040465 | Surface winds along the subtropical west coast of South America are characterized by the quasi-weekly occurrences of low-level jet events. These short lived but intense wind events impact the coastal ocean environment. Hence, identifying long-term trends in the coastal low-level jet (CLLJ) is essential for understanding changes in marine ecosystems. Here we use ERA5 reanalysis (1979–2019) and an objective algorithm to track anticyclones to investigate recent changes in CLLJ events off central Chile (25–43◦ S). Results present evidence that the number of days with intense wind (≥10 ms−1 ), and the number and duration of CLLJ events have significantly changed off central Chile in recent decades. There is an increase in the number of CLLJ events in the whole study area during winter (June-July-August; JJA), while during summer (December–January–February; DJF) a decrease is observed at lower latitudes (29–34◦ S), and an increase is found at the southern boundary of the Humboldt system. We suggest that changes in the central pressures and frequency of extratropical, migratory anticyclones that reach the coast of South America, which force CLLJs, have played an important role in the recent CLLJ changes observed in this region. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. | Atmosphere | 20734433 | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/4/465 | art465 | 12 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | coastal low-level jet; coastal winds; era5 reanalysis; humboldt up-welling system; upwelling favorable wind events, chile; atmospheric pressure; tropics; central chile; coastal ocean environment; extratropical; long-term trend; low level jet; south america; surface winds; wind events; algorithm; anticyclone; climate modeling; coastal zone; jet; long-term change; surface wind; upwelling; ecosystems | Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, 8320000, Chile; Escuela de Ingeniería Civil Oceánica, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, 2340000, Chile; Millennium Nucleus Understanding Past Coastal Upwelling Systems and Environmental Local and Lasting Impacts (UPWELL), Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID) Millennium Science Initiative, Coquimbo, 1780000, Chile; Centro de Observación Marino Para Estudios de Riesgos del Ambiente Costero, COSTAR, Valparaíso, 2340000, Chile; Departamento de Geología, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 8320000, Chile; Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID) Millennium Science Initiative, Ñuñoa, 7750000, Chile; Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), Coquimbo, 1780000, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 8320000, Chile |
| High-Frequency Variability of the Surface Ocean Properties Off Central Chile During the Upwelling Season | Aguirre C.; Garreaud R.; Belmar L.; Farías L.; Ramajo L.; Barrera F. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.3389/fmars.2021.702051 | The ocean off south-central Chile is subject to seasonal upwelling whose intensity is mainly controlled by the latitudinal migration of the southeast Pacific subtropical anticyclone. During austral spring and summer, the mean flow is equatorward favoring coastal upwelling, but periods of strong southerly winds are intermixed with periods of relaxed southerlies or weak northerly winds (downwelling favorable). This sub-seasonal, high-frequency variability of the coastal winds results in pronounced changes in oceanographic conditions and air-sea heat and gas exchanges, whose quantitative description has been limited by the lack of in-situ monitoring. In this study, high frequency fluctuations of meteorological, oceanographic and biogeochemical near surface variables were analyzed during two consecutive upwelling seasons (2016–17 and 2017–18) using observations from a coastal buoy located in the continental shelf off south-central Chile (36.4°S, 73°W), ∼10 km off the coast. The radiative-driven diel cycle is noticeable in meteorological variables but less pronounced for oceanographic and biogeochemical variables [ocean temperature, nitrate (NO3−), partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2sea), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO)]. Fluorescence, as a proxy of chlorophyll-a, showed diel variations more controlled by biological processes. In the synoptic scale, 23 active upwelling events (strong southerlies, lasting between 2 and 15 days, 6 days in average) were identified, alternated with periods of relaxed southerlies of shorter duration (4.5 days in average). Upwelling events were related to the development of an atmospheric low-level coastal jet in response to an intense along-shore pressure gradient. Physical and biogeochemical surface seawater properties responded to upwelling favorable wind stress with approximately a 12-h lag. During upwelling events, SST, DO and pH decrease, while NO3−, pCO2sea, and air-sea fluxes increases. During the relaxed southerly wind periods, opposite tendencies were observed. The fluorescence response to wind variations is complex and diverse, but in many cases there was a reduction in the phytoplankton biomass during the upwelling events followed by higher values during wind relaxations. The sub-seasonal variability of the coastal ocean characterized here is important for biogeochemical and productivity studies. © Copyright © 2021 Aguirre, Garreaud, Belmar, Farías, Ramajo and Barrera. | Frontiers in Marine Science | 22967745 | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.702051/full | art702051 | 8 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, air-sea exchanges; biogeochemical properties; coastal buoy observations; coastal upwelling; coastal winds; eastern boundary conditions; sub-seasonal variability | Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Escuela de Ingeniería Civil Oceánica, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Millennium Nucleus Understanding Past Coastal Upwelling Systems and Environmental Local and Lasting Impacts (UPWELL), Coquimbo, Chile; Centro de Observación Marino para Estudios de Riesgos del Ambiente Costero (COSTAR), Valparaíso, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Oceanografía, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Instituto Milenio de Socio-Ecología Costera (SECOS), Santiago, Chile; Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), Coquimbo, Chile; Departamento de Biología Marina, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo, Chile; Departamento de Química Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Ambientes Sustentables (CIBAS), Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile |
| Progressive water deficits during multiyear droughts in basins with long hydrological memory in Chile | Alvarez-Garreton C.; Pablo Boisier J.; Garreaud R., Rgarreau@dgf.uchile.cl; Seibert J.; Vis M. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.5194/hess-25-429-2021 | A decade-long (2010-2020) period with precipitation deficits in central-south Chile (30-41° S), the so-called megadrought (MD), has led to streamflow depletions of larger amplitude than expected from precipitation anomalies, indicating an intensification in drought propagation. We analysed the catchment characteristics and runoff mechanisms modulating such intensification by using the CAMELS-CL dataset and simulations from the HBV hydrological model. We compared annual precipitation-runoff (P-R) relationships before and during the MD across 106 basins with varying snow-/rainfall regimes and identified those catchments where drought propagation was intensified. Our results show that catchments' hydrological memory-modulated by snow and groundwater-is a key control of drought propagation. Snow-dominated catchments (30-35° S) feature larger groundwater contribution to streamflow than pluvial basins, which we relate to the infiltration of snowmelt over the Western Andean Front. This leads to longer memory in these basins, represented by a significative correlation between autumn streamflow (when snow has already melted) and the precipitation from the preceding year. Hence, under persistent drought conditions, snow-dominated catchments accumulate the effects of precipitation deficits and progressively generate less water, compared with their historical behaviour, notably affecting central Chile, a region with limited water supply and which concentrates most of the country's population and water demands. Finally, we addressed a general question: what is worse-an extreme single-year drought or a persistent moderate drought° In snow-dominated basins, where water provision strongly depends on both the current and previous precipitation seasons, an extreme drought induces larger absolute streamflow deficits; however persistent deficits induce a more intensified propagation of the meteorological drought. Hence, the worst scenario would be an extreme meteorological drought following consecutive years of precipitation below average, as occurred in 2019. In pluvial basins of southern Chile (35-41° S), hydrologic memory is still an important factor, but water supply is more strongly dependant on the meteorological conditions of the current year, and therefore an extreme drought would have a higher impact on water supply than a persistent but moderate drought. © 2021 Author(s). | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | 10275606 | https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/25/429/2021/ | 429-446 | 25 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, chile; catchments; groundwater; runoff; snow; stream flow; water supply; annual precipitation; catchment characteristics; hydrological modeling; limited water supplies; meteorological condition; meteorological drought; precipitation anomalies; precipitation deficits; catchment; drought; groundwater-surface water interaction; hydrological modeling; meteorology; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; runoff; snowmelt; streamflow; drought | Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2 Fondap 15110009), Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de la Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland |
| Radiocarbon bomb-peak signal in tree-rings from the tropical Andes register low latitude atmospheric dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere | Ancapichún S.; De Pol-Holz R.; Christie D.A.; Santos G.M.; Collado-Fabbri S.; Garreaud R.; Lambert F.; Orfanoz-Cheuquelaf A.; Rojas M.; Southon J.; Turnbull J.C.; Creasman P.P. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Ciudades Resilientes; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145126 | South American tropical climate is strongly related to the tropical low-pressure belt associated with the South American monsoon system. Despite its central societal role as a modulating agent of rainfall in tropical South America, its long-term dynamical variability is still poorly understood. Here we combine a new (and world's highest) tree-ring 14C record from the Altiplano plateau in the central Andes with other 14C records from the Southern Hemisphere during the second half of the 20th century in order to elucidate the latitudinal gradients associated with the dissemination of the bomb 14C signal. Our tree-ring 14C record faithfully captured the bomb signal of the 1960's with an excellent match to atmospheric 14C measured in New Zealand but with significant differences with a recent record from Southeast Brazil located at almost equal latitude. These results imply that the spreading of the bomb signal throughout the Southern Hemisphere was a complex process that depended on atmospheric dynamics and surface topography generating reversals on the expected north-south gradient in certain years. We applied air-parcel modeling based on climate data to disentangle their different geographical provenances and their preformed (reservoir affected) radiocarbon content. We found that air parcel trajectories arriving at the Altiplano during the bomb period were sourced i) from the boundary layer in contact with the Pacific Ocean (41%), ii) from the upper troposphere (air above the boundary layer, with no contact with oceanic or continental carbon reservoirs) (38%) and iii) from the Amazon basin (21%). Based on these results we estimated the ∆14C endmember values for the different carbon reservoirs affecting our record which suggest that the Amazon basin biospheric 14C isoflux could have been reversed from negative to positive as early as the beginning of the 1970's. This would imply a much faster carbon turnover rate in the Amazon than previously modelled. © 2021 Elsevier B.V. | Science of the Total Environment | 00489697 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969721001923 | art145126 | 774 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | bombs; brazil; oceans and seas; pacific ocean; trees; amazon basin; andes; brazil; new zealand; pacific ocean; boundary layers; carbon; forestry; topography; tropics; carbon 14; atmospheric dynamics; carbon reservoirs; continental carbons; geographical provenances; latitudinal gradients; southern hemisphere; tropical climates; upper troposphere; atmospheric circulation; atmospheric dynamics; atmospheric modeling; carbon isotope; latitudinal gradient; paleoclimate; radiocarbon dating; southern hemisphere; tree ring; amazonas (brazil); araucaria; araucaria angustifolia; article; atmosphere; atmospheric circulation; bomb; bomb signal; carbon reservoir effect; chile; controlled study; environmental impact; environmental parameters; geographic distribution; latitude; new zealand; nonhuman; pacific ocean; plant structures; polylepis tarapacana; priority journal; rosaceae; southern hemisphere; surface topography; topography; tree ring; troposphere; turnover rate; bomb; brazil; sea; tree; bombs (ordnance), atmospheric circulation; carbon reservoir effect; radiocarbon; southern hemisphere; tree-rings | Postgraduate School in Oceanography, Faculty of Natural and Oceanographic Sciences, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro de Investigación GAIA Antártica (CIGA) and Network for Extreme Environment Research (NEXER), Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Chile; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, United States; Fundación Crono Austral, Concepción, Biobio, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Physical Geography, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; GNS Science, Rafter Radiocarbon Laboratory, Lower Hutt, New Zealand; CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder, United States; American Center for Oriental Research (ACOR), Amman, Jordan |
| Spatiotemporal Peatland Productivity and Climate Relationships Across the Western South American Altiplano | Anderson T.G.; Christie D.A.; Chávez R.O.; Olea M.; Anchukaitis K.J. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1029/2020JG005994 | The South American Altiplano is one of the largest semiarid high-altitude plateaus in the world. Within the Altiplano, peatlands known as “bofedales” are important components of regional hydrology and provide key water resources and ecosystem services to Andean communities. Warming temperatures, changes in hydroclimate, and shifting atmospheric circulation patterns all affect peatland dynamics and hydrology. It is therefore urgent to better understand the relationships between climate variability and the spatiotemporal variations in peatland productivity across the Altiplano. Here, we explore climate influences on peatland vegetation using 31 years of Landsat data. We focus specifically on the bofedal network in the western Altiplano, the driest sector of the plateau, and use the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as an indicator of productivity. We develop temporally and spatially continuous NDVI products at multiple scales in order to evaluate relationships with climate variables over the past three decades. We demonstrate that cumulative precipitation and snow persistence over the prior 2 years are strongly associated with growing season productivity. A step change in peatland productivity between 2013–2015 drives an increasing trend in NDVI and is likely a response to consecutive years of anomalously high snow accumulation and rainfall. Early summer minimum temperatures emerge as a secondary influence on productivity. Understanding large-scale productivity dynamics and characterizing the response of bofedales to climate variability over the last three decades provides a baseline to monitor the responses of Andean peatlands to climate change. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. | Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences | 21698953 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JG005994 | arte2020JG005994 | 126 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | altiplano; andes; bofedales; ndvi; peatlands, altiplano; indicator indicator; varanidae; atmospheric circulation; climate change; growing season; ndvi; peatland; precipitation (chemistry); precipitation (climatology); rainfall; snow accumulation; spatiotemporal analysis | School of Geography, Development and Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Laboratorio de Geo-Información y Percepción Remota, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile |
| The social construction of water markets in chile: An approach from the legal geography; [La construcción social de los mercados de agua en chile: Un enfoque desde la geografía legal] | Artero C.N. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.4067/S0718-34022021000200163 | The article proposes an approach from the legal geography to understand the social construction of water markets in the semi-arid basin of the Elqui river, from the second half of the 20th century. Using qualitative methodologies (ethnography, interviews, archi-ves), it reveals the jointly spatial and legal dimension of the formation of water markets. The technical water objects installed since the second half of the 20th century attract new investors and transform the political economy of the valley. Since then, the users have used technical water objects and have instrumentalized or produced law locally to buy, sell or rent water rights, forming five water markets. © 2021, Revista de Geografia Norte Grande. All rights reserved. | Revista de Geografia Norte Grande | 03798682 | http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-34022021000200163&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en | 163-182 | 2021 | Thomson Reuters SCIE, SSCI | chile; coquimbo; elqui river; ethnography; market conditions; political economy; qualitative analysis; semiarid region; social construction; water economics, chile; legal geography; semiarid; technical objects; water markets | Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Chile |
| On the selection of precipitation products for the regionalisation of hydrological model parameters | Baez-Villanueva O.M.; Zambrano-Bigiarini M.; Mendoza P.A.; McNamara I.; Beck H.E.; Thurner J.; Nauditt A.; Ribbe L.; Thinh N.X. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.5194/hess-25-5805-2021 | Over the past decades, novel parameter regionalisation techniques have been developed to predict streamflow in data-scarce regions. In this paper, we examined how the choice of gridded daily precipitation (P) products affects the relative performance of three well-known parameter regionalisation techniques (spatial proximity, feature similarity, and parameter regression) over 100 near-natural catchments with diverse hydrological regimes across Chile. We set up and calibrated a conceptual semi-distributed HBV-like hydrological model (TUWmodel) for each catchment, using four P products (CR2MET, RF-MEP, ERA5, and MSWEPv2.8). We assessed the ability of these regionalisation techniques to transfer the parameters of a rainfall-runoff model, implementing a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure for each P product. Despite differences in the spatio-Temporal distribution of P, all products provided good performance during calibration (median Kling-Gupta efficiencies (KGE′s) > 0.77), two independent verification periods (median KGE′s >0.70 and 0.61, for near-normal and dry conditions, respectively), and regionalisation (median KGE′s for the best method ranging from 0.56 to 0.63). We show how model calibration is able to compensate, to some extent, differences between P forcings by adjusting model parameters and thus the water balance components. Overall, feature similarity provided the best results, followed by spatial proximity, while parameter regression resulted in the worst performance, reinforcing the importance of transferring complete model parameter sets to ungauged catchments. Our results suggest that (i) merging P products and ground-based measurements does not necessarily translate into an improved hydrologic model performance; (ii) the spatial resolution of P products does not substantially affect the regionalisation performance; (iii) a P product that provides the best individual model performance during calibration and verification does not necessarily yield the best performance in terms of parameter regionalisation; and (iv) the model parameters and the performance of regionalisation methods are affected by the hydrological regime, with the best results for spatial proximity and feature similarity obtained for rain-dominated catchments with a minor snowmelt component. © Copyright: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | 10275606 | https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/25/5805/2021/ | 5805-5837 | 25 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, chile; catchments; rain; runoff; statistical methods; hydrological regime; modeling parameters; modeling performance; parameter regionalization; parameter regressions; performance; precipitation products; regionalisation; regionalization techniques; spatial proximity; calibration; catchment; hydrological modeling; precipitation (climatology); rainfall-runoff modeling; regionalization; streamflow; climate models | Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics (ITT), Th Köln, Cologne, Germany; Faculty of Spatial Planning, Tu Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de la Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; GloH2O, Almere, Netherlands |
| Water management or megadrought: what caused the Chilean Aculeo Lake drying? | Barría P.; Chadwick C.; Ocampo-Melgar A.; Galleguillos M.; Garreaud R.; Díaz-Vasconcellos R.; Poblete D.; Rubio-Álvarez E.; Poblete-Caballero D. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1007/s10113-021-01750-w | The Aculeo Lake is an important natural reservoir of Central Chile, which provides valuable ecosystem services. This lake has suffered a rapid shrinkage of the water levels from year 2010 to 2018, and since October 2018, it is completely dry. This natural disaster is concurrent with a number of severe and uninterrupted drought years, along with sustained increases in water consumption associated to land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Severe water shortages and socio-environmental impacts were triggered by these changes, emphasizing the need to understand the causes of the lake desiccation to contribute in the design of future adaptation strategies. Thereby, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model was used as a tool to quantify the water balance in the catchment. The model was run under a combination of three land use/land cover and two different climate scenarios that sample the cases with and without megadrought and with or without changes in land use. According to the results, the main triggering factor of the lake shrinkage is the severe megadrought, with annual rainfall deficits of about 38%, which resulted in amplified reductions in river flows (44%) and aquifer recharges (24%). The results indicate that the relative impact of the climate factor is more than 10 times larger than the impact of the observed LULC changes in the lake balance, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation strategies to deal with the projected drier futures. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature. | Regional Environmental Change | 14363798 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-021-01750-w | art19 | 21 | Thomson Reuters SCIE, SSCI | anthropogenic; attribution; decision making; drought; land use/land cover; water budget, nan | Department of Engineering Science, Universidad de Los Lagos, Puerto Montt, Chile; Faculty of Forestry Science and Nature Conservation, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, La Pintana, Chile; Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; School of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Eridanus Ingeniería en Recursos Hídricos, Santiago, Chile |
| Water allocation under climate change: A diagnosis of the Chilean system | Barría P.; Sandoval I.B.; Guzman C.; Chadwick C.; Alvarez-Garreton C.; Díaz-Vasconcellos R.; Ocampo-Melgar A.; Fuster R. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1525/elementa.2020.00131 | Chile is positioned in the 20th rank of water availability per capita. Nonetheless, water security levels vary across the territory. Around 70% of the national population lives in arid and semiarid regions, where a persistent drought has been experienced over the last decade. This has led to water security problems including water shortages. The water allocation and trading system in Chile is based on a water use rights (WURs) market, with limited regulatory and supervisory mechanisms, where the volume to be granted as permanent and eventual WURs is calculated from statistical analyses of historical streamflow records if available, or from empirical estimations if they are not. This computation of WURs does not consider the nonstationarity of hydrological processes nor climatic projections. This study presents the first large sample diagnosis of water allocation system in Chile under climate change scenarios. This is based on novel anthropic intervention indices (IAI), which were computed as the ratio between the total granted water volume to the water availability within 87 basins in north-central and southern Chile (30ºS-42ºS).The IAI were evaluated for the historical period (1979-2019) and under modeled-based climatic projections (2055-2080). According to these IAI levels, to date, there are 20 out of 87 overallocated basins, which under the assumption that no further WURs will be granted in the future, increases up to 25 basins for the 2055-2080 period. The results show that, to date most of north-central Chilean catchments already have a large anthropic intervention degree, and the increases for the future period occurs mostly in the southern region of the country (approximately 38ºS), which has been considered as possible source of water for large water transfer projects (i.e., water roads). These indices and diagnosis are proposed as a tool to help policy makers to address water scarcity under climate change. Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. | Elementa | 23251026 | https://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article/9/1/00131/117183/Water-allocation-under-climate-changeA-diagnosis | art1 | 9 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; climate change; policy making; streamflow; water availability; water storage; water use, climate change; hydrological modeling; water management; water market | Departamento de Ciencias de la Ingeniería, Universidad de Los Lagos, Puerto Montt, Chile; Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservación de la Naturaleza, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Investigación GAIA Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Facultad de Ciencias Agronómicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Mapping water ecosystem services: Evaluating InVEST model predictions in data scarce regions | Benra F.; De Frutos A.; Gaglio M.; Álvarez-Garretón C.; Felipe-Lucia M.; Bonn A. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104982 | Sustainable management of water ecosystem services requires reliable information to support decision making. We evaluate the performance of the InVEST Seasonal Water Yield Model (SWYM) against water monitoring records in 224 catchments in southern Chile. We run the SWYM in three years (1998, 2007 and 2013) to account for recent land-use change and climatic variations. We computed squared Pearson correlations between SWYM monthly quickflow predictions and streamflow observations and applied a generalized mixed‐effects model to evaluate annual estimations. Results show relatively low monthly correlations with marked latitudinal and temporal variations while annual estimates show a good match between observed and modeled values, especially for values under 1000 mm/year. Better predictions were observed in regions with high rainfall and in dry years while poorer predictions were found in snow dominated and drier regions. Our results improve SWYM performance and contribute to water supply and regulation decision-making, particularly in data scarce regions. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd | Environmental Modelling and Software | 13648152 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364815221000256 | art104982 | 138 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; ecosystems; forecasting; hydrogeology; land use; water management; water supply; climatic variation; land-use change; model prediction; pearson correlation; sustainable management; temporal variation; water ecosystems; water monitoring; decision support system; ecosystem service; estimation method; least squares method; performance assessment; prediction; streamflow; sustainable development; water supply; decision making, blue ecosystem services; data scarce regions; ecosystem service model; south america; water regulation; water supply | Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Ecosystem Services, Permoserstraße 15, Leipzig, 04318, Germany; Institute of Biodiversity, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Dornburger Straße 159, Jena, 07743, Germany; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Puschstrasse 4, Leipzig, D-04103, Germany; Department of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, University of Ferrara, Via L. Borsari 46, Ferrara, 44121, Italy; Center for Climate and Resilience Research CR2, FONDAP, Santiago, 15110009, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile |
| Chemical signals in tree rings from northern patagonia as indicators of calbuco volcano eruptions since the 16th century | Bertin L.J.; Christie D.A.; Sheppard P.R.; Muñoz A.A.; Lara A.; Alvarez C. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.3390/f12101305 | The Calbuco volcano ranks third in the specific risk classification of volcanoes in Chile and has a detailed eruption record since 1853. During 2015, Calbuco had a sub-Plinian eruption with negative impacts in Chile and Argentina, highlighting the need to determine the long-term history of its activity at a high-resolution time scale to obtain a better understanding of its eruptive frequency. We developed a continuous eruptive record of Calbuco for the 1514–2016 period by dendrochemical analysis of Fitzroya cupressoides tree rings at a biennium resolution using inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry. After comparing the chemical record of 20 elements contained in tree rings with historical eruptions, one group exhibited positive anomalies during (Pb/Sn) and immediately after (Mo/P/Zn/Cu) eruptions, with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥ 3, and so were classified as chemical tracers of past eruptions (TPE). The tree-ring width chronology also exhibited significant decreases in tree growth associated with eruptions of VEI ≥ 3. According to these records, we identified 11 new eruptive events of Calbuco, extending its eruptive chronology back to the 16th century and determining a mean eruptive frequency of ~23 years. Our results show the potential to use dendrochemical analysis to infer past volcanic eruptions in Northern Patagonia. This information provides a long-term perspective for assessing eruptive history in Northern Patagonia, with implications for territorial planning. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. | Forests | 19994907 | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/10/1305 | art1305 | 12 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chemicals; forestry; frequency; patagonia; records; resolution; rings; trees; argentina; chile; patagonia; fitzroya cupressoides; forestry; indicators (chemical); inductively coupled plasma; mass spectrometry; chemical signals; fitzroya cupressoides; inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry; northern patagonia; risk classification; sub-plinian eruption; tree rings; volcanic eruptions; volcanic explosivity indices; volcano eruptions; chemical analysis; dendrochronology; inductively coupled plasma method; pine; plinian eruption; sixteenth century; territorial planning; tree ring; volcanoes, dendrochronology; fitzroya cupressoides; inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry; volcanic eruptions | Chilean Geological and Mining Survey (SERNAGEOMIN), National Volcanic Network, Atacama Regiona Office, Copiapó, 1530000, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5090000, Chile; Santiago, 8320000, Chile; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, 85721, AZ, United States; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Estudios Ambientales, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, 2340000, Chile; Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, 2362807, Chile |
| Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: contrasting global and regional climate model simulations | Bozkurt D.; Bromwich D.H.; Carrasco J.; Rondanelli R. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1007/s00382-021-05667-2 | This study presents near future (2020–2044) temperature and precipitation changes over the Antarctic Peninsula under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We make use of historical and projected simulations from 19 global climate models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We compare and contrast GCMs projections with two groups of regional climate model simulations (RCMs): (1) high resolution (15-km) simulations performed with Polar-WRF model forced with bias-corrected NCAR-CESM1 (NC-CORR) over the Antarctic Peninsula, (2) medium resolution (50-km) simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P forced with EC-EARTH (EC) obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica. A further comparison of historical simulations (1981–2005) with respect to ERA5 reanalysis is also included for circulation patterns and near-surface temperature climatology. In general, both RCM boundary conditions represent well the main circulation patterns of the historical period. Nonetheless, there are important differences in projections such as a notable deepening and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low in EC and NC-CORR, respectively. Mean annual near-surface temperatures are projected to increase by about 0.5–1.5 ∘C across the entire peninsula. Temperature increase is more substantial in autumn and winter (∼ 2 ∘C). Following opposite circulation pattern changes, both EC and NC-CORR exhibit different warming rates, indicating a possible continuation of natural decadal variability. Although generally showing similar temperature changes, RCM projections show less warming and a smaller increase in melt days in the Larsen Ice Shelf compared to their respective driving fields. Regarding precipitation, there is a broad agreement among the simulations, indicating an increase in mean annual precipitation (∼ 5 to 10%). However, RCMs show some notable differences over the Larsen Ice Shelf where total precipitation decreases (for RACMO) and shows a small increase in rain frequency. We conclude that it seems still difficult to get consistent projections from GCMs for the Antarctic Peninsula as depicted in both RCM boundary conditions. In addition, dominant and common changes from the boundary conditions are largely evident in the RCM simulations. We argue that added value of RCM projections is driven by processes shaped by finer local details and different physics schemes that are introduced by RCMs, particularly over the Larsen Ice Shelf. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature. | Climate Dynamics | 09307575 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-021-05667-2 | 3853-3874 | 56 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | added value; antarctica; climate change; dynamical downscaling; larsen ice shelf; model evaluation; temperature extremes, antarctic peninsula; antarctica; larsen ice shelf; west antarctica; air temperature; climate change; climate modeling; cmip; downscaling; extreme event; global climate; precipitation assessment; regional climate | Department of Meteorology, University of Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Estudios Atmosféricos y Astroestadística, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Investigación y Gestión de Recursos Naturales, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States; Centro de Investigación GAIA Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Influence of African Atmospheric Rivers on Precipitation and Snowmelt in the Near East's Highlands | Bozkurt D.; Sen O.L.; Ezber Y.; Guan B.; Viale M.; Caglar F. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1029/2020JD033646 | Atmospheric rivers (ARs) traveling thousands of kilometers over arid North Africa could interact with the highlands of the Near East (NE), and thus affect the region's hydrometeorology and water resources. Here, we use a state-of-the-art AR tracking database, and reanalysis and observational datasets to investigate the climatology (1979–2017) and influences of these ARs in snowmelt season (March–April). The Red Sea and northeast Africa are found to be the major source regions of these ARs, which are typically associated with the eastern Mediterranean trough positioned over the Balkan Peninsula and a blocking anticyclone over the NE-Caspian region, triggering southwesterly air flow toward the NE's highlands. Approximately 8% of the ARs are relatively strong (integrated water vapor transport >∼275 kg m−1 s−1). AR days exhibit enhanced precipitation over the crescent-shaped orography of the NE region. Mean AR days indicate wetter (up to + 2 mm day−1) and warmer (up to + 1.5°C) conditions than all-day climatology. On AR days, while snowpack tends to decrease (up to 30%) in the Zagros Mountains, it can show decreases or increases in the Taurus Mountains depending largely on elevation. A further analysis with the observations and reanalysis indicates that extreme ARs coinciding with large scale sensible heat transport can significantly increase the daily discharges. These results suggest that ARs can have notable impacts on the hydrometeorology and water resources of the region, particularly of lowland Mesopotamia, a region that is famous with great floods in the ancient narratives. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres | 2169897X | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD033646 | arte2020JD033646 | 126 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | euphrates-tigris basin; extreme precipitation; hydrometeorology; moisture transport; runoff; snow, balkans; indian ocean; mesopotamia; north africa; red sea [indian ocean]; taurides; turkey; zagros; airflow; anticyclone; atmospheric moisture; hydrometeorology; orography; precipitation assessment; snowmelt; trough; water vapor | Department of Meteorology, University of Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey; Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Mendoza, Argentina |
| Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields | Bravo C.; Bozkurt D.; Ross A.N.; Quincey D.J. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1038/s41598-021-95725-w | The Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI) have increased their ice mass loss in recent decades. In view of the impacts of glacier shrinkage in Patagonia, an assessment of the potential future surface mass balance (SMB) of the icefields is critical. We seek to provide this assessment by modelling the SMB between 1976 and 2050 for both icefields, using regional climate model data (RegCM4.6) and a range of emission scenarios. For the NPI, reductions between 1.5 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.9 m w.e. (RCP8.5) were estimated in the mean SMB during the period 2005–2050 compared to the historical period (1976–2005). For the SPI, the estimated reductions were between 1.1 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.5 m w.e. (RCP8.5). Recently frontal ablation estimates suggest that mean SMB in the SPI is positively biased by 1.5 m w.e., probably due to accumulation overestimation. If it is assumed that frontal ablation rates of the recent past will continue, ice loss and sea-level rise contribution will increase. The trend towards lower SMB is mostly explained by an increase in surface melt. Positive ice loss feedbacks linked to increasing in meltwater availability are expected for calving glaciers. © 2021, The Author(s). | Scientific Reports | 20452322 | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95725-w | art16847 | 11 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, article; body weight; climate; glacier; sea level rise | Centro de Estudios Científicos (CECs), Valdivia, Chile; School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom |
| A review of the observed air temperature in the Antarctic Peninsula. Did the warming trend come back after the early 21st hiatus? | Carrasco J.F.; Bozkurt D.; Cordero R.R. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.polar.2021.100653 | Recent changes in the near-surface air temperature (nSAT) in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) suggests that the absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula may be coming to end. To examine this, the long-term annual and seasonal variability of the nSAT at eight Antarctic stations located in the AP are analyzed using available data from the SCAR Reader database, complemented with data from the Chilean Weather Service (Frei and O'Higgins). An exponential filter was applied to the original annual and seasonal mean series to obtain a decadal-like variation of the nSAT. A stacked and the standardized anomaly of the nSAT record was constructed to examine the average regional behavior in the AP. Cumulative sum (CUSUM) and changepoint analysis were applied through the stacked nSAT series to highlight significant changes caused by variation in weather and climate. The CUSUM and bootstrapping analysis revealed two statistically significant breaking points during the 1978–2020 period. The first one occurred in the late nineties ending a warming period and making the beginning of a cooling period; the second one may have taken place in the mid-2010s and could mark the end of the warming pause. These trends appear to be consistent with the changes observed in the large-scale climate modes (i.e., the Antarctic Annular Mode – AAO). © 2021 Elsevier B.V. and NIPR | Polar Science | 18739652 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1873965221000189 | art100653 | 28 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, air temperature; antarctic peninsula; change point; reader database; warming and cooling trends | Centro de Investigación Gaia Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Av. Bulnes, Punta Arenas, 01855, Chile; Department of Meteorology, University of Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Física, Universidad de Santiago, Av. Bernardo O'Higgins, Santiago, 3363, Chile |
| Extreme sea levels at Rapa Nui (Easter Island) during intense atmospheric rivers | Carvajal M.; Winckler P.; Garreaud R.; Igualt F.; Contreras-López M.; Averil P.; Cisternas M.; Gubler A.; Breuer W.A. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1007/s11069-020-04462-2 | In addition to the tsunami hazard posed by distant great earthquakes, Rapa Nui (Easter Island), in the Southeast Pacific Ocean, is exposed to frequent and intense coastal storms. Here, we use sea-level records and field surveys guided by video and photographic footage to show that extreme sea levels at Rapa Nui occur much more frequent than previously thought and thus constitute an unrecognized hazard to the inland’s maritime supply chain. We found that extreme sea-level events, including the two most extreme (March 5th and May 5th, 2020) in our 17-month-long analyzed period (from January 1st, 2019, to May 31st, 2020), resulted from constructive superpositions of seiches on the shelf, storm surges and high tides. By further analyzing time series of atmospheric and wind-generated wave data, we conclude that these extreme sea levels are ultimately driven by the breaking of large waves near the coastline (i.e., wave setup), with lesser contribution of barometric setup and even less of wind setup. We also propose that these large waves were mainly generated from strong, long-lasting, NW winds associated with intense atmospheric rivers (long, narrow regions in the atmosphere that transport abundant water vapor) passing over Rapa Nui. Given that the intensity of atmospheric rivers and sea level are thought to increase as climate changes, a deeper understanding of the relation between meteorological and oceanographic processes at Rapa Nui is strongly needed. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature. | Natural Hazards | 0921030X | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04462-2 | 1619-1637 | 106 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | easter island; pacific ocean; pacific ocean (southeast); atmospheric dynamics; extreme event; field survey; hazard assessment; photography; sea level; sea level change; seiche; storm surge; time series; tsunami; vulnerability; water vapor; wind wave, atmospheric rivers; easter island; integrated water vapor; meteotsunamis; rapa nui; sea level; seiches; shelf resonance; storm surge | Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias Geológicas, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Millennium Nucleus the Seismic Cycle along Subduction Zones (CYCLO), Valparaíso, Chile; Escuela de Ingeniería Civil Oceánica, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Investigación Para La Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN), Santiago, Chile; Centro de Observación Marino Para Estudios de Riesgos del Ambiente Costero (COSTAR-UV), Valparaíso, Chile; Department of Geophysics and Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Escuela de Arquitectura y Diseño, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Facultad de Arquitectura y Diseño, Universidad Andrés Bello, Viña del Mar, Chile |
| Identifying key driving mechanisms of heat waves in central Chile | Demortier A.; Bozkurt D.; Jacques-Coper M. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1007/s00382-021-05810-z | This study explores the main drivers of heat wave (HW) events in central Chile using state-of-the-art reanalysis data (ERA5) and observations during the extended austral summer season (November to March) for the period 1979–2018. Frequency and intensity aspects of the HW events are considered using the total number of the HW events per season and the amplitude. We first contrast ERA5 with several surface meteorological stations in central Chile to evaluate its ability to capture daily maximum temperature variability and the HW events. We then use synoptic- and large-scale fields and teleconnection patterns to address the most favorable conditions of the HW events from a climatological perspective as well as from the extreme January 2017 HW event that swept central Chile with temperature records and wildfires. ERA5 tends to capture temperature extremes and the HW events at the inland stations; on the contrary, it has difficulties in capturing the maximum temperature variability at the coastal stations, which is plausible given the complex terrain features and confined coastal climate zone (only ∼ 7% of all grid boxes within central Chile). The composite HW days based on ERA5 reveals a mid-level trough-ridge dipole pattern exhibiting a blocking anticyclone on the surface over a large part of southwest South America. Relatively dry and warm easterly flow appears to accompany the anomalous warming in a large part of central Chile. The temporal evolution of the HW events yields a wave-like propagation pattern and enhancement of trough-ridge pattern along the South Pacific. This meridional dipole pattern is found to be largely associated with the Pacific South American pattern. In addition, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) appears to be a key component of the HW events in central Chile. In particular, while active MJO phases 2 and 7 promote sub-seasonal patterns that favor the South Pacific dipole mode, synoptic anomalies can superimpose on them and favor the formation of a migrating anticyclone over central-southern Chile and coastal lows over central Chile. Agreeing with the climatological findings, the extreme January 2017 HW analysis suggests that an eastward migratory mid-latitude trough-ridge pattern associated with MJO phase 2 was at work. We highlight that in addition to large- and synoptic-scale features, sub-synoptic processes such as coastal lows can have an important role in shaping the HW events and can lead to amplification of temperature extremes during the HW events. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. | Climate Dynamics | 09307575 | https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-021-05810-z | 2415-2432 | 57 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; atmospheric dynamics; easterly wave; extreme event; frequency analysis; heat wave; madden-julian oscillation; seasonal variation; teleconnection; temperature anomaly; wave propagation, atmospheric teleconnections; blocking pattern; central chile; heat waves; mjo; temperature extremes | École Nationale de la Météorologie, Toulouse, France; Departamento de Meteorología, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Estudios Atmosféricos y Astroestadística (CEAAS), Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Investigación y Gestión de Recursos Naturales (CIGREN), Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile |
| Multiscale physical background to an exceptional harmful algal bloom of Dinophysis acuta in a fjord system | Díaz P.A.; Peréz-Santos I.; Álvarez G.; Garreaud R.; Pinilla E.; Díaz M.; Sandoval A.; Araya M.; Álvarez F.; Rengel J.; Montero P.; Pizarro G.; López L.; Iriarte L.; Igor G.; Reguera B. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145621 | Dinophysis acuta produces diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP) toxins and pectenotoxins (PTX). It blooms in thermally-stratified shelf waters in late summer in temperate to cold temperate latitudes. Despite its major contribution to shellfish harvesting bans, little effort has been devoted to study its population dynamics in Chilean Patagonia. In 2017–2018, mesoscale distribution of harmful algal species (75 monitoring stations) revealed the initiation (late spring) and seasonal growth of a dense D. acuta population in the Aysén region, with maximal values at Puyuhuapi Fjord (PF). Vertical phytoplankton distribution and fine-resolution measurements of physical parameters along a 25-km transect in February 16th identified a 15-km (horizontal extension) subsurface thin layer of D. acuta from 4 to 8 m depth. This layer, disrupted at the confluence of PF with the Magdalena Sound, peaked at the top of the pycnocline (6 m, 15.9 °C, 23.4 psu) where static stability was maximal. By February 22nd, it deepened (8 m, 15.5 °C; 23.62 psu) following the excursions of the pycnocline and reached the highest density ever recorded (664 × 103 cells L−1) for this species. Dinophysis acuta was the dominant Dinophysis species in all microplankton net-tows/bottle samples; they all contained DSP toxins (OA, DTX-1) and PTX-2. Modeled flushing rates showed that Puyuhuapi, the only fjord in the area with 2 connections with the open sea, had the highest water residence time. Long term climate variability in the Southern hemisphere showed the effects of a Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in positive mode (+1.1 hPa) overwhelming a moderate La Niña. These effects included positive spring precipitation anomalies with enhanced salinity gradients and summer drought with positive anomalies in air (+1 °C) and sea surface (+2 °C) temperature. Locally, persistent thermal stratification in PF seemed to provide an optimal physical habitat for initiation and bloom development of D. acuta. Thus, in summer 2018, a favourable combination of meteorological and hydrographic processes of multiple scales created conditions that promoted the development of a widespread bloom of D. acuta with its epicentre at the head of Puyuhuapi fjord. © 2021 Elsevier B.V. | Science of the Total Environment | 00489697 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969721006896 | art145621 | 773 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chilean patagonia; climatic anomalies; dinophysis acuta; exceptional blooms; lipophilic toxins; puyuhuapi fjord; thin layers, chile; dinoflagellida; estuaries; harmful algal bloom; humans; shellfish poisoning; chile; patagonia; dinophysis acuta; algae control; oceanography; plankton; plants (botany); population statistics; residence time distribution; shellfish; surface waters; shellfish poisoning; diarrhetic shellfish poisoning; harmful algal blooms; long-term climate variability; mesoscale distribution; phytoplankton distributions; southern annular mode; thermally stratified; water residence time; alga; algal bloom; climate effect; climate variation; flagellate; geographical distribution; growth rate; poisoning; population dynamics; southern hemisphere; toxin; alga; algal bloom; algal growth; article; chile; climate change; dinophysis acuta; environmental monitoring; hydrography; meteorological phenomena; microplankton; nonhuman; physical parameters; priority journal; salinity; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; southern hemisphere; species distribution; thermoregulation; water residence time; algal bloom; dinoflagellate; estuary; human; protozoa | Centro i~mar, Universidad de Los Lagos, Casilla 557, Puerto Montt, Chile; CeBiB, Universidad de Los Lagos, Casilla 557, Puerto Montt, Chile; Centro de Investigación Oceanográfica COPAS Sur-Austral, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Departamento de Acuicultura, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo, Chile; Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo Tecnológico en Algas (CIDTA), Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Católica del Norte, Larrondo 1281, Coquimbo, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 8370449, Región Metropolitana, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, CR2, Santiago, 8370449, Región Metropolitana, Chile; Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (IFOP), Putemun, Castro, Chile; Instituto de Acuicultura & Programa de Investigación Pesquera, Universidad Austral de Chile, Los Pinos s/n, Puerto Montt, Chile; Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia (CIEP), Coyhaique, Chile; Centro de Estudios de Algas Nocivas (CREAN), Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (IFOP), Enrique Abello 0552, Punta Arenas, Chile; Centro de Estudios de Algas Nocivas (CREAN), Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (IFOP), Padre Harter 574, Puerto Montt, Chile; Centro de Estudios de Algas Nocivas (CREAN), Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (IFOP), Sargento Aldea 431, Puerto Aysén, Chile; Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo, Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO), Subida a Radio Faro 50, Vigo, 36390, Spain |
| Validation of a 9-km WRF dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation for the period 1980–2005 over Central South Chile | Fernández A.; Schumacher V.; Ciocca I.; Rifo A.; Muñoz A.A.; Justino F. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1007/s00704-020-03416-9 | In this paper, we evaluated a dynamical downscaling produced for Central South Chile (32°S–38°S) relative to climatic conditions between 1980 and 2005. Assessing the skill of dynamical downscaling relative to the present climate is key to determine the degree of confidence on regional climatic projections. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting model to simulate that period at ~ 9 km grid-cell size, forced by the bias-corrected Community Earth System Model. Results indicated that the dynamical downscaling adequately reproduced spatio-temporal features of the climate within the region. Temperature showed a positive bias at the annual scale while the opposite occurred for precipitation. The bias varied when the comparison was performed relative to a gridded product or instrumental records from weather stations. At the monthly scale, the model failed to capture long-term trends relative to the gridded dataset while reproducing spatial patterns, especially for temperature. We found a generally statistically significant spatial clustering of the monthly mean bias that can support implementation and application of dynamical downscaling and bias-correction methods that account for the distinct climatic features of the study area. In particular, the strip 34°S–35°S presented features that are coincident with previous findings suggesting this latitude to be a boundary between different climate regimes north and south. According to our results, we assert that this dynamical downscaling is comparable with other available databases and thus can be utilized in future studies as an additional and independent source of analysis, contributing to a balanced appraisal of climate scenarios for policymaking within the region. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature. | Theoretical and Applied Climatology | 0177798X | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-020-03416-9 | 361-378 | 143 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; air temperature; climate conditions; climate prediction; computer simulation; downscaling; precipitation assessment; regional climate; weather forecasting, central south chile; dynamical downscaling; precipitation; temperature | Department of Geography, Universidad de Concepción, Casilla 160-C, Barrio Universitario, Concepción, Chile; Department of Geological Sciences, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, United States; Department of Agriculture Engineering, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Brazil; Department for Geodetic Sciences and Geomatics, Universidad de Concepción, Los Ángeles, Chile; Institute of Geography, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile |
| The south pacific pressure trend dipole and the southern blob | GARREAUD R.D.; CLEM K.; VELOSO J.V. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0886.1 | During the last four decades, the sea level pressure has been decreasing over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea (ABS) region and increasing between 308 and 408S from New Zealand to Chile, thus forming a pressure trend dipole across the South Pacific. The trends are strongest in austral winter and have influenced the climate of West Antarctica and South America. The pressure trends have been attributed to decadal variability in the tropics, expansion of the Hadley cell, and an associated positive trend of the southern annular mode, but these mechanisms explain only about half of the pressure trend dipole intensity. Experiments conducted with two atmospheric models indicate that upper ocean warming over the subtropical southwest Pacific (SSWP), termed the Southern Blob, accounts for about half of the negative pressure trend in the ABS region and nearly all the ridging/drying over the eastern subtropical South Pacific, thus contributing to the central Chile megadrought. The SSWP warming intensifies the pressure trend dipole through warming the troposphere across the subtropical South Pacific and shifting the midlatitude storm track poleward into the ABS. Multidecadal periods of strong SSWP warming also appear in fully coupled preindustrial simulations, associated with a pressure trend dipole and reduction in rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, thus suggesting a natural origin of the Southern Blob and its teleconnection. However, the current warming rate exceeds the range of natural variability, implying a likely additional anthropogenic contribution. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved. | Journal of Climate | 08948755 | https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/18/JCLI-D-20-0886.1.xml | 7661-7676 | 34 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | annular mode; climate change; climate variability; general circulation models; south america; southern hemisphere, amundsen sea; bellingshausen sea; chile; new zealand; southern ocean; sea level; anthropogenic contribution; atmospheric model; decadal variability; mid-latitude storms; natural variability; negative pressures; sea level pressure; southern annular mode; annual variation; climate change; general circulation model; sea level pressure; seasonal variation; southern hemisphere; trend analysis; tropics | Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; Climatologia, Dirección Meteorológica de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Disentangling the effect of future land use strategies and climate change on streamflow in a Mediterranean catchment dominated by tree plantations | Galleguillos M.; Gimeno F.; Puelma C.; Zambrano-Bigiarini M.; Lara A.; Rojas M. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126047 | Climate change (CC) along with Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) have a strong influence in water availability in already fragile Mediterranean ecosystems. In this work the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was implemented for the 2006–2018 period in a rainfed catchment of central Chile (36°) to test the hypothesis that adaptive plantation strategies could mitigate the impacts of climate change and increase streamflow. We also hypothesize that afforestation with exotic tree plantations will reduce water availability in Mediterranean catchments, acting in synergy with climate change. Five LULCC scenarios are analyzed: i) current long-term national Forest Policy (FP), ii) extreme scenario (EX) with large afforestation surfaces, both including the replacement of native shrublands with Pinus radiata; iii) adaptive plantation management scenario (FM), with lower planting density, iv) forced land displacement scenario (FLD), where plantations at the headwaters are moved to lowland areas and replaced with native shrublands, and v) pristine scenario (PR), with only native vegetation. Each LULCC scenario was run with present climate and with projections of different CMIP5 climate models under the RCP 8.5 scenario for the period 2037–2050, and then compared against simulations based on the present land cover and climate. Simulations with the five LULCC scenarios (FP, EX, FM, FLD and PR) with present climate resulted in variations of −2.5, −17.3, 0, 2.3 and 10.9% on mean annual streamflow (Q), while simulations with the current land cover and CC projections produced a 32.1% decrease in mean annual Q. The joint impact of CC and LULCC leads to changes in mean annual Q ranging from −46.2% (EX) to –23.3% (PR). Afforestation with exotic pines will intensify the reduction in water yield, while conservative scenarios focused on native forests protection and restoration could partially mitigate the effect of CC. We make a strong call to rethink current and future land management strategies to cope with lower water availability in a drier future. © 2021 Elsevier B.V. | Journal of Hydrology | 00221694 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169421000949 | art126047 | 595 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | exotic plantations; hydrological response; lulcc; native shrubland; sdgs; swat, mediterranean region; pinus radiata; catchments; climate models; conservation; land use; reforestation; runoff; stream flow; land use and land cover change; land-use strategies; mediterranean catchment; mediterranean ecosystem; plantation managements; protection and restoration; soil and water assessment tool; water availability; afforestation; catchment; climate change; coniferous forest; coniferous tree; land cover; land use; land use change; shrubland; soil and water assessment tool; streamflow; tree planting; climate change | Department of Environmental Science and Renewable Natural Resources, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Fundación Centro de los Bosques Nativos FORECOS, Valdivia, Chile; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Seasonal precipitation in south-central Chile: Trends in extreme events since 1900 | González-Reyes Á.; Jacques-Coper M.; Muñoz A.A. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.20937/ATM.52871 | We study a regional precipitation time series built upon seven meteorological records from south-central Chile (SCC; 37°–42° S), which altogether cover the period 1900–2019. As a first objective, we investigated changes in the return period (RP) of dry (< P20) and wet (> P80) seasonal extreme events of precipitation (SEE) for each season. We observed a reduction in the RP of wet SEE during 1900–1950 in all seasons. Moreover, the dry SEE RP shows a reduction from 1950 to the present in all seasons. This phenomenon is noteworthy since 1900 for summer and winter, and since 1930 for autumn. Spring registers a constant RP value from 1990 onwards. As a second objective, we study possible relationships between seasonal precipitation variability and climate modes, such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Tripole Index (TPI) of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Pacific Ocean. Summer and autumn precipitation showed a significant negative correlation with SAM activity at interannual and decadal scales, while winter and spring precipitation recorded a significant positive correlation with SST variability over multiple regions of the Pacific Ocean (including the tropics and New Zealand) and the Southern Ocean (Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea). Finally, we confirm that SAM strongly modulates precipitation in SCC, especially in autumn, and that SEE variability in SCC is considerably associated with climate modes of tropical and extra-tropical origin. © 2021. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). | Atmosfera | 01876236 | https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/52871 | 371-384 | 34 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; pacific coast [chile]; pacific coast [south america]; annual variation; climate modeling; extreme event; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; sea surface temperature; summer; trend analysis; winter, extreme seasonal precipitation events; south-central chile; southern annular mode (sam); tripole index of sea surface temperature of the pacific ocean (tpi) | Hémera Centro de Observación de la Tierra, Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, Camino La Pirámide 5750, Huechuraba, Santiago, 8580745, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Concepción, Casilla 160-C, Concepción, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar y Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, 2362807, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Chile; Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, 2362807, Chile |
| Leaf thermal and chemical properties as natural drivers of plant flammability of native and exotic tree species of the valparaíso region, chile | Guerrero F.; Hernández C.; Toledo M.; Espinoza L.; Carrasco Y.; Arriagada A.; Muñoz A.; Taborga L.; Bergmann J.; Carmona C. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.3390/ijerph18137191 | Forest fires are one of the main environmental threats in Chile. Fires in this Mediterranean climate region frequently affect native forests and exotic plantations, including in several cases urban and rural settlements. Considering the scarcity of information regarding the fire response dynamics of tree species that are frequently affected by fires, this study aims to establish a flammability classification according to the evolution of the fire initiation risk presented by the most affected forest species in the Valparaíso region. Three exotic species, Eucalyptus globulus, Pinus radiata, and Acacia dealbata, and two native species, Cryptocarya alba and Quillaja saponaria, were studied. Flammability assays indicate that E. globulus, A. dealbata, and C. alba are extremely flammable, whereas P. radiata and Q. saponaria are flammable. Furthermore, E. globulus and A. dealbata have the highest heating values while Q. saponaria has the lowest values. The extreme flammability of E. globulus, A. dealbata, and C. alba indicates a high susceptibility to ignite. Furthermore, the high heat of combustion of E. globulus and A. dealbata can be associated with a high energy release, increasing the risk of fires spreading. In contrast, Q. saponaria has the lowest predisposition to ignite and capacity to release heat. Accordingly, this work shows that all studied tree species contain organic metabolites that are potentially flammable (sesquiterpenes, aliphatic hydrocarbons, alcohol esters, ketones, diterpenes, and triterpenes) and can be considered as drivers of flammability in vegetation. Finally, these preliminary results will aid in the construction of more resilient landscapes in the near future. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health | 16617827 | https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/13/7191 | art7191 | 18 | Thomson Reuters ISI | fire behavior; flammability; forest fire; organic metabolites; sclerophyllous species, chile; fires; forests; mediterranean region; plant leaves; trees; chile; valparaiso [chile]; acacia dealbata; cryptocarya alba; eucalyptus globulus; pinus radiata; quillaja saponaria; radiata; saponaria; alcohol derivative; alcohol ester; aliphatic hydrocarbon; diterpenoid; ketone; sesquiterpene; triterpene; unclassified drug; aliphatic hydrocarbon; fire behavior; fire management; forest fire; leaf; mediterranean environment; metabolite; physicochemical property; risk assessment; vegetation classification; acacia; acacia dealbata; article; chemical parameters; chemical property; chile; combustion; controlled study; cryptocarya alba; eucalyptus globulus; exotic species; flammability; heat; heating; landscape; metabolite; native species; nonhuman; physical chemistry; pine; pinus radiata; plant flammability; plant leaf; quillaja; quillaja saponaria; temperature; vegetation; chile; fire; forest; plant leaf; southern europe; tree | Department of Mechanical Engineering, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Avenida España 1680, Valparaíso, 2390123, Chile; Forestry Department, Faculty of Forestry and Agricultural Sciences, Universidad de Pinar del Río, Calle Martí 300, Pinar del Río, CP 20100, Cuba; Institute of Geography, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2241, Valparaíso, 2362807, Chile; Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2950, Valparaíso, 2340025, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2, Santiago, 8320000, Chile; Natural Products Laboratory, Department of Chemistry, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Avenida España 1680, Valparaíso, 2390123, Chile; Institute of Chemistry, Science Faculty, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Universidad 330, Valparaíso, 2373223, Chile |
| The last glacial termination in northwestern Patagonia viewed from the Lago Fonk (∼40°S) record | Henríquez C.A.; Moreno P.I.; Dunbar R.B.; Mucciarone D.A. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107197 | The anatomy of the Last Glacial Termination (T1) in the southern mid-latitudes, and its relationship with changes in the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW), offers empirical constraints for understanding the mechanisms involved in the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum into the current interglacial. Northwestern Patagonia (40°-44°S) is a sensitive region for monitoring past changes in the SWW, the Patagonian Ice Sheet, terrestrial ecosystems, and fire regimes through T1. Here we present results from Lago Fonk (∼40°S) to examine the structure of T1 based on the palynological, macroscopic charcoal, elemental, and isotopic composition of organic lake sediments. We observe an instantaneous establishment of Nothofagus-dominated forests at the onset of T1, followed by a diversification and densification trend that culminated with the establishment of thermophilous, Myrtaceae-dominated North Patagonian rainforests between ∼15.6–14.7 cal ka BP. The expansion of the conifer Podocarpus nubigena marks a shift to cool-temperate and hyperhumid conditions, coeval with high lake levels and enhanced algal productivity between ∼14.7–11.9 cal ka BP. Stand-replacing fires, driven by enhanced seasonality or high-frequency rainfall variability, started at ∼12.4 cal ka BP and catalyzed the rapid spread of Weinmannia trichosperma. Subsequent warming and a decline in precipitation at ∼11.4 cal ka BP led to intense fire activity, lake-level lowering, and establishment of the Valdivian rainforest trees Eucryphia/Caldcluvia. Our results suggest a coherent linkage between changes documented in the amphi south Pacific region and Antarctic ice cores during T1. This implies a zonal and hemispheric response to changes in the position/intensity of the SWW that emphasizes their central role as a key driver of the hemispheric and global climate evolution through T1. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd | Quaternary Science Reviews | 02773791 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379121004042 | art107197 | 271 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | lake sediment cores; last glacial termination; multi-proxy indexes; patagonia; southern westerly winds, patagonia; coniferophyta; eucryphia; myrtaceae; nothofagus; podocarpus nubigenus; weinmannia trichosperma; fires; forestry; glacial geology; lakes; 'current; lake levels; lake sediment cores; last glacial maximum; last glacial terminations; midlatitudes; multi proxies; multi-proxy index; patagonia; southern westerly winds; catalysis; catalyst; global climate; ice core; last glacial maximum; palynology; rainforest; warming; westerly; charcoal | Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, United States |
| The role of climate and disturbance regimes upon temperate rainforests during the Holocene: A stratigraphic perspective from Lago Fonk (∼40°S), northwestern Patagonia | Henríquez C.A.; Moreno P.I.; Lambert F.; Alloway B.V. | Ciudades Resilientes; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.106890 | Climate and disturbance regimes play key roles in shaping the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Despite this importance, very few stratigraphic studies in the temperate rainforests from northwestern Patagonia have explored this relationship in detail along a time continuum through the entire Holocene. Here we present a high-resolution fossil pollen and charcoal record from Lago Fonk (median resolution: 20 years), a small closed-basin lake in the lowlands of the Chilean Lake District (41°S), where wildfires and explosive volcanism have intermittently taken place during the Holocene, along with pronounced human-induced disturbance in post-colonial time. Our results show persistence of temperate rainforest throughout the Holocene, with changes in the composition and structure of Valdivian rainforests (VRF) at millennial timescales. We detect centennial-scale alternations in dominance between the VRF tree Eucryphia/Caldcluvia and generalist trees found in VRF and North Patagonian rainforests after ∼6.5 cal ka BP. Intervals dominated by VRF coincide with enhanced fire occurrence signaling negative hydroclimate anomalies with a mean duration of ∼150 years, which alternate with positive hydroclimate anomalies lasting ∼312 years on average. Our results suggest that the magnitude and rapidity of vegetation changes detected at 10.2–9.9, 4.0–3.0, ∼1.0, and ∼0.7 cal ka BP were amplified by disturbance regimes, and led to the establishment and maintenance of Eucryphia/Caldcluvia-dominated forests in the Longitudinal Valley of the Chilean Lake District. On several occasions the higher incidence of fire disturbance during warm/dry climate intervals coincided with episodes of heightened explosive volcanic activity from multiple eruptive centers within the Southern Andean Volcanic Zone. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd | Quaternary Science Reviews | 02773791 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379121000974 | art106890 | 258 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | centennial/millennial-scale variability; explosive volcanism; fire disturbance; lake sediment cores; pollen analysis, chile; cumbria; england; lake district; longitudinal valley; patagonia; taiwan; united kingdom; eucryphia; charcoal; explosives; fires; forestry; stratigraphy; volcanoes; centennial/millennial-scale variability; climate regime; disturbance regime; explosive volcanism; fire disturbance; holocenes; lake sediment cores; patagonia; pollen analysis; temperate rainforest; charcoal; climate variation; disturbance; explosive volcanism; fossil record; holocene; rainforest; stratigraphy; temperate forest; vegetation dynamics; lakes | Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand |
| Diversifying Chile's climate action away from industrial plantations | Hoyos-Santillan J.; Miranda A.; Lara A.; Sepulveda-Jauregui A.; Zamorano-Elgueta C.; Gómez-González S.; Vásquez-Lavín F.; Garreaud R.D.; Rojas M. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.06.013 | As president of the Climate Change Conference of the Parties, Chile has advocated for developing ambitious commitments to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2050. However, Chile's motivations and ambitious push to reach carbon-neutrality are complicated by a backdrop of severe drought, climate change impacts (i.e., wildfires, tree mortality), and the use of industrial plantations as a mitigation strategy. This has become more evident as widespread and severe wildfires have impacted large areas of industrial plantations, transforming the land-use, land-use change, and forestry sector from a carbon sink to a net carbon source. Consequently, Chile must diversify its climate actions to achieve carbon-neutrality. Nature-based solutions, including wetlands-peatlands and oceans, represent alternative climate actions that can be implemented to tackle greenhouse gas emissions at a national level. Diversification, however, must guarantee Chile's long-term carbon sequestration capacity without compromising the ecological functionality of biodiverse tree-less habitats and native forest ecosystems. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd | Environmental Science and Policy | 14629011 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1462901121001738 | 85-89 | 124 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | carbon; biodiversity; building; carbon footprint; carbon sequestration; carbon sink; carbon source; chile; climate; climate change; drought; electric power plant; energy yield; forest; forestry; housing; land use; note; peatland; plantation; sea; tree; wetland; wildfire, carbon neutrality; climate action; native forest; nature-based solutions; net-zero; wildfires | School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington, Loughborough, United Kingdom; Metropolitan Region, Santiago, Chile; Network for Extreme Environments Research, Universidad de La Frontera, La Araucanía, Temuco, Chile; Environmental Biogeochemistry in Extreme Ecosystems Laboratory, University of Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Magallanes, Chile; Laboratorio de Ecología del Paisaje y Conservación, Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad de La Frontera, La Araucanía, Temuco, Chile; Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Los Ríos, Chile; Fundación Centro de los Bosques Nativos-FORECOS, Valdivia, Los Ríos, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Naturales y Tecnología, Universidad de Aysén, Aysén, Coyhaique, Chile; Departamento de Biología-IVAGRO, Universidad de Cádiz, Puerto Real, Cádiz, Spain; Center for Fire and Socioecological Systems (FireSES), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Los Ríos, Chile; School of Business and Economics, Universidad del Desarrollo, Metropolitan Region, Santiago, Chile; Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Metropolitan Region, Santiago, Chile; Geophysics Department, University of Chile, Metropolitan Region, Santiago, Chile |
| Daily and seasonal variation of the surface temperature lapse rate and 0°C isotherm height in the western subtropical Andes | Ibañez M.; Gironás J.; Oberli C.; Chadwick C.; Garreaud R.D. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1002/joc.6743 | The spatial distribution of surface air temperatures is essential for understanding and modelling high-relief environments. Good estimations of the surface temperature lapse rate (STLR) and the 0°C isotherm height (H0) are fundamental for hydrological modelling in mountainous basins. Although STLR changes in space and time, it is typically assumed to be constant leading to errors in the estimation of direct-runoff volumes and flash-floods risk assessment. This paper characterizes daily and seasonal temporal variations of the in-situ STLR and H0 over the western slope of the subtropical Andes (central Chile). We use temperature data collected during 2 years every 10 min by a 16 sensors network in a small catchment with elevations ranging between 700 and 3,250 m. The catchment drains directly into Santiago, the Chilean capital with more than seven million inhabitants. Resulting values are compared against those obtained using off-site, operational data sets. Significant intra- and inter-day variations of the in-situ STLR were found, likely reflecting changes in the low-level temperature inversion during dry conditions. The annual average in-situ STLR is −5.9°C/km during wet-weather conditions. Furthermore, STLR and H0 estimations using off-site gauges are extremely sensitive to the existence of gauging stations at high elevations. © 2020 Royal Meteorological Society | International Journal of Climatology | 08998418 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6743 | E980-E999 | 41 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | 0°c isotherm; high density sensor network; mountains; temperature lapse rate; warm events, andes; chile; catchments; floods; isotherms; risk assessment; risk perception; runoff; surface properties; tropics; hydrological modelling; inter-day variations; mountainous basins; seasonal variation; surface air temperatures; surface temperatures; temperature inversions; temporal variation; diurnal variation; mountain environment; mountain region; seasonal variation; sensor; surface temperature; warming; atmospheric temperature, chile | Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres, CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable, CONICYT/FONDAP/15110020, Santiago, Chile; Centro Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservación de la Naturaleza, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| The 2019 southern hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex weakening and its impacts | Lim E.-P.; Hendon H.H.; Butler A.H.; Thompson D.W.J.; Lawrence Z.D.; Scaife A.A.; Shepherd T.G.; Polichtchouk I.; Nakamura H.; Kobayashi C.; Comer R.; Coy L.; Dowdy A.; Garreaud R.D.; Newman P.A.; Wang G. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0112.1 | This study offers an overview of the low-frequency (i.e., monthly to seasonal) evolution, dynamics, predictability, and surface impacts of a rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming that occurred in austral spring 2019. Between late August and mid-September 2019, the stratospheric circumpolar westerly jet weakened rapidly, and Antarctic stratospheric temperatures rose dramatically. The deceleration of the vortex at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first-ever-observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean Antarctic warming over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ∼50% in the midstratosphere. This event was preceded by a poleward shift of the SH polar night jet in the uppermost stratosphere in early winter, which was then followed by record-strong planetary wave-1 activity propagating upward from the troposphere in August that acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex throughout the depth of the stratosphere. The weakened vortex winds and elevated temperatures moved downward to the surface from mid-October to December, promoting a record strong swing of the southern annular mode (SAM) to its negative phase. This record-negative SAM appeared to be a primary driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia that accompanied the severe wildfires that occurred in late spring 2019. State-of-the-art dynamical seasonal forecast systems skillfully predicted the significant vortex weakening of spring 2019 and subsequent development of negative SAM from as early as late July. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society | 00030007 | https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/102/6/BAMS-D-20-0112.1.xml | E1150-E1171 | 102 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | springs (components); elevated temperature; seasonal forecasts; southern annular mode; southern hemisphere; stratospheric polar vortex; stratospheric temperature; stratospheric warmings; sudden stratospheric warming; vortex flow, antarctic oscillation; climate prediction; extreme events; planetary waves; stratosphere-troposphere coupling; stratospheric circulation | Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; NOAA/Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Science Systems and Applications Inc., Lanham, MD, United States; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Tree growth decline as a response to projected climate change in the 21st century in Mediterranean mountain forests of Chile | Matskovsky V.; Venegas-González A.; Garreaud R.; Roig F.A.; Gutiérrez A.G.; Muñoz A.A.; Le Quesne C.; Klock K.; Canales C. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103406 | Global Climate Models project that observed climate trends are likely to be preserved and the number of extreme events will be increasing during the rest of the 21st century, which may have a detrimental impact on forest ecosystems. These impacts may include forest decline and widespread dieback of the most vulnerable biomes, such as the Mediterranean Forest of Central Chile (MFCC). Nothofagus macrocarpa and Austrocedrus chilensis are two canopy-dominant, endangered tree species in the mountains of MFCC. Here, we project tree growth of these species based on tree-ring width chronologies, a simplified version of a process-based model, and climate change projections. We used the tree ring information derived from ~400 trees from 12 sites distributed across MFCC in combination with the simplified version of process-based Vaganov-Shashkin tree-growth model (VS-Lite) to forecast changes in tree growth for the next four decades. Tree growth projections were made on the basis of monthly values of temperature and precipitation from the output of 35 climate models based on two ensembles of CO2 emission scenarios of the IPCC AR5 (RCP 8.5: higher-emission scenario, and RCP 2.6: lower-emission scenario). For the MFCC region these scenarios result in temperature rise ranging between 0.5 °C and 2.0 °C, and a precipitation decrease between 5% and 20% by the year 2065, as related to historical conditions. Our results showed that the VS-Lite model is capable of reproducing tree growth decline during the recent extreme dry period, i.e. 2010–2018, which supports its use for tree growth projections in the MFCC region. According to the modeling results, we find that tree growth in both N. macrocarpa and A. chilensis forests distributed in the MFCC region will be adversely affected by future climate changes, mainly starting from the year 2035, under both scenarios. Our work provides evidence of the degree of vulnerability of Mediterranean mountain forests in central Chile according to current climate change projections. The projected decline in tree growth indicates serious risks in the dynamics and survival of these forests relatively soon, so alerts are given about this situation which may require to counteract the deleterious effects of global change on vegetation in this region. © 2020 Elsevier B.V. | Global and Planetary Change | 09218181 | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921818120302976 | art103406 | 198 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | austrocedrus chilensis; climate change; climatic projections; dendroecology; nothofagus macrocarpa; south american mediterranean forest; tree rings; vaganov–shashkin-lite model, chile; austrocedrus chilensis; nothofagus macrocarpa; climate models; ecosystems; forestry; landforms; climate change projections; deleterious effects; endangered tree species; global climate model; mediterranean forest; mediterranean mountains; process-based modeling; tree growth modeling; biome; chronology; climate change; climate modeling; deciduous tree; dieback; extreme event; forest ecosystem; global change; global climate; growth; mediterranean environment; montane forest; tree; tree ring; twenty first century; climate change | Institute of Geography RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation; Hémera Centro de Observación de la Tierra, Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental, IANIGLA-CONICET-Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina; Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile |
| How well do gridded precipitation and actual evapotranspiration products represent the key water balance components in the Nile Basin? | McNamara I.; Baez-Villanueva O.M.; Zomorodian A.; Ayyad S.; Zambrano-Bigiarini M.; Zaroug M.; Mersha A.; Nauditt A.; Mbuliro M.; Wamala S.; Ribbe L. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100884 | Study region: Nile Basin, Africa. Study focus: The accurate representation of precipitation (P) and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) patterns is crucial for water resources management, yet there remains a high spatial and temporal variability among gridded products, particularly over data-scarce regions. We evaluated the performance of eleven state-of-the-art P products and seven ETa products over the Nile Basin using a four-step procedure: (i) P products were evaluated at the monthly scale through a point-to-pixel approach; (ii) streamflow was modelled using the Random Forest machine learning technique, and simulated for well-performing catchments for 2009–2018 (to correspond with ETa product availability); (iii) ETa products were evaluated at the multiannual scale using the water balance method; and (iv) the ability of the best-performing P and ETa products to represent monthly variations in terrestrial water storage (ΔTWS) was assessed through a comparison with GRACE Level-3 data. New hydrological insights for the region: CHIRPSv2 was the best-performing P product (median monthly KGE’ of 0.80) and PMLv2 and WaPORv2.1 the best-performing ETa products over the majority of the evaluated catchments. The application of the water balance using these best-performing products captures the seasonality of ΔTWS well over the White Nile Basin, but overestimates seasonality over the Blue Nile Basin. Our study demonstrates how gridded P and ETa products can be evaluated over extremely data-scarce conditions using an easily transferable methodology. © 2021 The Authors | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies | 22145818 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214581821001130 | art100884 | 37 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, evapotranspiration; grace; precipitation; random forest; remote sensing; water balance | Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics (ITT), Cologne University of Applied Sciences, Cologne, Germany; Faculty of Spatial Planning, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany; Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de la Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat, Entebbe, Uganda; Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia |
| Broad-Scale Surface and Atmospheric Conditions during Large Fires in South-Central Chile | McWethy D.B.; Garreaud R.D.; Holz A.; Pederson G.T. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.3390/FIRE4020028 | The unprecedented size of the 2017 wildfires that burned nearly 600,000 hectares of central Chile highlight a need to better understand the climatic conditions under which large fires develop. Here we evaluate synoptic atmospheric conditions at the surface and free troposphere associated with anomalously high (active) versus low (inactive) months of area burned in south-central Chile (ca. 32–41◦ S) from the Chilean Forest Service (CONAF) record of area burned from 1984–2018. Active fire months are correlated with warm surface temperatures, dry conditions, and the presence of a circumpolar assemblage of high-pressure systems located ca. 40◦–60◦ S. Additionally, warm surface temperatures associated with active fire months are linked to reduced strength of cool, onshore westerly winds and an increase in warm, downslope Andean Cordillera easterly winds. Episodic warm downslope winds and easterly wind anomalies superimposed on long-term warming and drying trends will continue to create conditions that promote large fires in south-central Chile. Identifying the mechanisms responsible for easterly wind anomalies and determining whether this trend is strengthening due to synoptic-scale climatic changes such as the poleward shift in Southern Hemisphere westerly winds will be critical for anticipating future large fire activity in south-central Chile. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. | Fire | 25716255 | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/4/2/28 | art28 | 4 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; climate; enso; fire; fire weather; large fires; southern annual mode, nan | Department of Earth Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, 59717, MT, United States; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 8320000, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, CR2, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 8320000, Chile; Department of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, 97201, OR, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Bozeman, 59715, MT, United States |
| An early Holocene westerly minimum in the southern mid-latitudes | Moreno P.I.; Henríquez W.I.; Pesce O.H.; Henríquez C.A.; Fletcher M.S.; Garreaud R.D.; Villa-Martínez R.P. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106730 | An important coupled ocean-atmospheric system in the mid- and high latitudes involves the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) and the Southern Ocean (SO), which controls climate in the southernmost third of the world, deep water formation, and ventilation of CO2 from the deep ocean. Most studies have examined its role as a driver of atmospheric CO2 concentrations during glacial terminations, but very few have investigated its influence during the Holocene, i.e. the current interglacial. A fundamental problem, however, is resolving whether the SWW strength increased or declined during the early Holocene (∼11.5–7.5 ka, ka = 1000 cal yr BP) in sectors adjacent to the Drake Passage. Here we assess past changes in SWW influence over the last ∼17,000 years using terrestrial paleoclimate records from southwestern Patagonia (∼52°S). We detect a zonally symmetric Early Holocene Westerly Minimum which diminished wind stress and upwelling on the SO, contributing to a contemporary decline in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and enrichment in the stable carbon isotope ratio of atmospheric CO2 (δ13Catm). Our mid-latitude data also indicate a shift to strong SWW influence at ∼7.5 ka which correlates with a sustained increase in atmospheric CO2 and halt in the δ13Catm rise, suggesting enhancement of high-latitude ocean ventilation by an invigorated SWW-SO coupled system. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd | Quaternary Science Reviews | 02773791 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379120306922 | art106730 | 251 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | atmospheric co2 holocene; early holocene westerly minimum; southern middle latitudes; southern westerly winds; southwestern patagonia, drake passage; patagonia; southern ocean; oceanography; atmospheric systems; co2 concentration; deep-water formation; glacial terminations; ocean ventilations; paleoclimate records; southern westerly winds; stable carbon isotope ratio; atmosphere-ocean coupling; carbon isotope ratio; concentration (composition); historical record; holocene; midlatitude environment; paleoclimate; stable isotope; upwelling; westerly; carbon dioxide | Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; School of Geography, Environmental and Earth Science, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; School of Geography, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Investigación Gaia-Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile |
| Vegetation, disturbance, and climate history since the onset of ice-free conditions in the Lago Rosselot sector of Chiloé continental (44°S), northwestern Patagonia | Moreno P.I.; Videla J.; Kaffman M.J.; Henríquez C.A.; Sagredo E.A.; Jara-Arancio P.; Alloway B.V. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.106924 | We present results from Lago Negro, a small closed-basin lake adjacent to Lago Rosselot, to examine the vegetation and environmental history of an insufficiently studied sector of Chiloé Continental (41°30′-44°S) in northwestern Patagonia. Lake sediment cores from Lago Negro reveal 27 tephra deposited since ∼12.7 ka, including two prominent rhyodacite tephra marker beds erupted from Volcán Melimoyu, and a stratified basal clastic unit we attribute to meltwater discharge from an ice tongue that originated from Monte Queulat and covered Lago Rosselot during its expanded position, presumably Antarctic Cold Reversal in age. The pollen record shows closed-canopy North Patagonian rainforests since ∼12.7 ka, with variations in species composition and structure that suggest dynamic responses of the vegetation to past environmental changes. Vegetation responses to climate in the Lago Negro record were modulated, sometimes interrupted, by high magnitude and frequent disturbance regimes, most notably during maxima in explosive volcanic activity (∼9.5–7.2 ka and ∼3.6–1.6 ka) and heightened fire activity. Since Lago Negro is the southernmost palynological site so far investigated in the region and is located within a volcanically active sector, it provides a valuable perspective for assessing past vegetation responses along environmental gradients since the last glaciation. When compared with other sites throughout northwestern Patagonia, our record reveals a distinct north-to-south gradient in temperature and precipitation, with peak temperature and rainfall seasonality in the north, and a west-to-east gradient in disturbance regimes, with maximum frequency and magnitude of explosive volcanic events in the east. These gradients have modulated the response of rainforest vegetation to climate forcing at regional scale since ∼12.7 ka. We identify negligible differences in timing for the majority of key vegetation signals during the initial phase of the Lago Negro record, and propose that plant colonization and expansion along the ∼360 km long corridor through the Pacific slope of the northwestern Patagonian Andes was a rapid process during the Last Glacial Termination. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd | Quaternary Science Reviews | 02773791 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379121001311 | art106924 | 260 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chiloé continental; disturbance paleoecology; glacier advance during the antarctic cold reversal; northwestern patagonia; postglacial explosive volcanism; recession and stabilization during younger dryas; vegetation and fire history, andes; chile; chiloe island; los lagos; patagonia; climate change; explosives; glacial geology; lakes; volcanoes; chiloe continental; disturbance paleoecology; glacier advance during the antarctic cold reversal; northwestern patagonium; patagonia; postglacial explosive volcanism; recession and stabilization during young dryas; vegetation and fire history; vegetation history; vegetation response; climate forcing; disturbance; environmental change; environmental history; lacustrine deposit; sediment core; tephra; vegetation history; vegetation | Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Estación Patagonia de Investigaciones Interdisciplinarias UC, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas y Departamento de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andrés Bello, Santiago, Chile; School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Private Bag, Auckland, 92019, New Zealand |
| Local and global environmental drivers of growth chronologies in a demersal fish in the south-eastern Pacific Ocean | Moyano G.; Plaza G.; Cerna F.; Muñoz A.A. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108151 | Upwelling and the El Niño “Southern Oscillation” (ENSO) are recurrent climatic phenomena in the southeastern Pacific Ocean that severely affect the reproduction and growth of pelagic fish populations. However, there are not long-term growth data from demersal fish populations to test these interconections in a long-term analysis. For this reason, a first extensive growth chronology was reconstructed from the annual growth of sagittal otoliths as a proxy for somatic growth for the cardinalfish (Epigonus crassicaudus). Adult fish ranging from 35 to 40 cm in fork length and from 39 to 63 years in age were collected off Chilean waters. The master chronologies were estimated for the period from 1974 to 2014, using the regional curve standardization approach (RCS) and linear mixed models (LMMs). Growth indexes derived from both approaches followed a similar trend and were positively correlated with the Humboldt Current Index (HCI) and negatively with ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and sea surface temperature. LMMs showed that a 75% of growth variability was explained by the age of increment formation and HCI was the environmental index that most significantly affected the annual growth of cardinalfish followed by the sea surface temperature in spring. A reduced growth phase from 1974 to 1996 contrasted with a higher growth period from 1997, matching the 1997/1998 climatic regime shift, demonstrating that the enhanced growth for cardinalfish was associated with upwelling of nutrient rich water to the surface, triggering an increase of the primary and secondary productivity during the prevalence of a cold regime period in the Humboldt Current System. The consistence between RCS and LMM methods was indicative that both approaches are promising to evaluate the influence of environmental drivers on the growth condition of a demersal fish population in a highly productive marine ecosystem. © 2021 The Author(s) | Ecological Indicators | 1470160X | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1470160X21008165 | art108151 | 131 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chilean margin; humboldt current; pacific ocean; pacific ocean (southeast); epigonus crassicaudus; atmospheric pressure; atmospheric temperature; cell proliferation; climatology; ecosystems; fish; fisheries; population statistics; submarine geophysics; surface properties; surface waters; demersal fish; environmental variables; epigonus crassicaudus; fish populations; humboldt current; linear mixed models; linear modeling; mixed linear model; otolith; sclerochronology; biochronology; demersal fish; el nino-southern oscillation; environmental conditions; growth; pacific decadal oscillation; pelagic fish; perciform; reconstruction; reproduction; sea surface temperature; upwelling; oceanography, demersal fish; environmental variables; epigonus crassicaudus; humboldt current; mixed linear models; otoliths; sclerochronology | División de Investigación Pesquera, Sección Edad y Crecimiento, Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (IFOP), Blanco 839, Valparaíso, Chile; Programa de Magíster en Oceanografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso-Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Escuela de Ciencias del Mar, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Universidad 330, Curauma, Valparaíso, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Brasil 2241, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Acción Climática, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro del Clima y la Resiliencia CR2, Santiago, Chile |
| Introduction. Contestée, appropriée et dépossédée : la place de la nature dans les villes latino-américaines | Nicolas-Artero C.; Fuster-Farfán X.; Velut S. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.4000/cal.13080 | [No abstract available] | Cahiers des Ameriques Latines | 11417161 | http://journals.openedition.org/cal/13080 | 23-35 | | Thomson Reuters ESCI | | Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2; Université de Concepción, Chile; IHEAL-CREDA, Université Sorbonne Nouvelle, France |
| Introducción. Disputada, apropiada y desposeída: la naturaleza en las ciudades latinoamericanas | Nicolas-Artero C.; Fuster-Farfán X.; Velut S. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.4000/cal.13089 | [No abstract available] | Cahiers des Ameriques Latines | 11417161 | http://journals.openedition.org/cal/13089 | 1-13 | | Thomson Reuters ESCI | | Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR 2); Universidad de Concepción, Chile; Centre de Recherche sur l’Habitat (Lavue UMR CNRS), France; IHEAL-CREDA, Université Sorbonne-Nouvelle, France |
| Questionner la relation société – environnement en Amérique latine : extractivisme, violences et résistances: | Nicolas-Artero,Chloé; | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.3917/lig.854.0093 | | L'Information géographique | 0020-0093 | https://www.cairn.info/revue-l-information-geographique-2021-4-page-93.htm?ref=doi | 93-111 | Vol. 85 | Thomson Reuters ESCI | | |
| Oceanography time series reveals annual asynchrony input between oceanic and estuarine waters in Patagonian fjords | Pérez-Santos I.; Díaz P.A.; Silva N.; Garreaud R.; Montero P.; Henríquez-Castillo C.; Barrera F.; Linford P.; Amaya C.; Contreras S.; Aracena C.; Pinilla E.; Altamirano R.; Vallejos L.; Pavez J.; Maulen J. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149241 | The postglacial Patagonian fjord system along the west coast of southern South America is one of the largest stretches of the southern hemisphere (SH) fjord belt, influenced by the SH westerly wind belt and continental freshwater input. This study reports a 3-year monthly time series (2017–2020) of physical and biogeochemical parameters obtained from the Reloncaví Marine Observatory (OMARE, Spanish acronym) at the northernmost embayment and fjord system of Patagonia. The main objective of this work was to understand the land–atmosphere–ocean interactions and to identify the mechanisms that modulate the density of phytoplankton. A key finding of this study was the seasonally varying asynchronous input of oceanic and estuarine water. Surface lower salinity and warmer estuarine water arrived in late winter to summer, contributing to water column stability, followed by subsurface higher salinity and less warmer oceanic water during fall–winter. In late winter 2019, an interannual change above the picnocline due to the record-high polarity of the Indian Ocean Dipole inhibited water column stability. The biogeochemical parameters (NO3−, NO2−, PO43−, Si(OH)4, pH, and dissolved oxygen) responded to the surface annual salinity variations, and oceanic water mass contributed greatly to the subsurface inorganic nutrient input. The water column N/P ratio indicated that no eutrophication occurred, even under intense aquaculture activity, likely because of the high ventilation dynamics of the Reloncaví Sound. Finally, a shift in phytoplankton composition, characterized by surface chlorophyll-a maxima in late winter and deepening of spring–summer blooms related to the physicochemical conditions of the water column, was observed. Our results support the ecosystem services provided by local oceanography processes in the north Patagonian fjords. Here, the anthropogenic impact caused by economic activities could be, in part, chemically reduced by the annual ventilation cycle mediated by the exchange of oceanic water masses into Patagonian fjords. © 2021 | Science of the Total Environment | 00489697 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S004896972104314X | art149241 | 798 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | ecosystem; environmental monitoring; estuaries; indian ocean; oceanography; phytoplankton; seawater; south america; biochemical oxygen demand; dissolved oxygen; economics; ecosystems; estuaries; eutrophication; observatories; oceanography; phytoplankton; time series; oxygen; picnocline; unclassified drug; water; sea water; atmospheric mode; biogeochemicals; column stability; estuarine waters; marine observatories; oceanic waters; patagonian fjord; southern hemisphere; times series; water columns; annual variation; biogeochemistry; estuarine dynamics; estuarine environment; eutrophication; fjord; land-atmosphere interaction; land-sea interaction; nearshore dynamics; physical oceanography; southern hemisphere; time series; water column; water mass; westerly; air conditioning; aquaculture; aquatic environment; article; atmosphere; biogeochemical cycle; cell polarity; controlled study; estuary; falling; inorganic nutrient; nonhuman; oceanography; ph; physical chemistry; phytoplankton; salinity; subsurface runoff; summer; time series analysis; water column stability; winter; ecosystem; environmental monitoring; indian ocean; oceanography; biogeochemistry, atmospheric mode; biogeochemistry; marine observatory; oceanography; patagonian fjords; time series | Centro i-mar de la Universidad de los Lagos, Puerto Montt, Chile; Centro de Investigación Oceanográfica COPAS Sur-Austral, Universidad de Concepción, Chile; Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia (CIEP), Coyhaique, Chile; CeBiB, Universidad de Los Lagos, Puerto Montt, Chile; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resilencia (CR2), Universidad de Chile, Chile; Laboratorio de Fisiología y Genética Marina, Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), Coquimbo, Chile; Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo, Chile; Facultad de Ciencias & Centro de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Ambientes Sustentables (CIBAS), Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias mención Conservación y Manejo de Recursos Naturales, Centro i-mar, Universidad de Los Lagos, Puerto Montt, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Concepción, Chile; Laboratorio Costero de Recursos Acuáticos de Calfuco, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Centro de Investigación en Recursos Naturales y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Bernardo O'Higgins, Avenida Viel 1497, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (IFOP), CTPA-Putemún, Castro, Chile |
| Different climate sensitivity for radial growth, but uniform for tree-ring stable isotopes along an aridity gradient in Polylepis tarapacana, the world’s highest elevation tree species | Rodriguez-Caton M.; Andreu-Hayles L.; Morales M.S.; Daux V.; Christie D.A.; Coopman R.E.; Alvarez C.; Rao M.P.; Aliste D.; Flores F.; Villalba R. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1093/treephys/tpab021 | Tree growth is generally considered to be temperature limited at upper elevation treelines, yet climate factors controlling tree growth at semiarid treelines are poorly understood. We explored the influence of climate on stem growth and stable isotopes for Polylepis tarapacana Philipi, the world’s highest elevation tree species, which is found only in the South American Altiplano. We developed tree-ring width index (RWI), oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) chronologies for the last 60 years at four P. tarapacana stands located above 4400 m in elevation, along a 500 km latitude aridity gradient. Total annual precipitation decreased from 300 to 200 mm from the northern to the southern sites. We used RWI as a proxy of wood formation (carbon sink) and isotopic tree-ring signatures as proxies of leaf-level gas exchange processes (carbon source). We found distinct climatic conditions regulating carbon sink processes along the gradient. Current growing-season temperature regulated RWI at northern-wetter sites, while prior growing-season precipitation determined RWI at arid southern sites. This suggests that the relative importance of temperature to precipitation in regulating tree growth is driven by site water availability. By contrast, warm and dry growing seasons resulted in enriched tree-ring δ13C and δ18O at all study sites, suggesting that similar climate conditions control carbon-source processes along the gradient. Site-level δ13C and δ18O chronologies were significantly and positively related at all sites, with the strongest relationships among the southern drier stands. This indicates an overall regulation of intercellular carbon dioxide via stomatal conductance for the entire P. tarapacana network, with greater stomatal control when aridity increases. This manuscript also highlights a coupling (decoupling) between physiological processes at leaf level and wood formation as a function of similarities (differences) in their climatic sensitivity. This study contributes to a better understanding and prediction of the response of high-elevation Polylepis woodlands to rapid climate changes and projected drying in the Altiplano. © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. | Tree Physiology | 0829318X | https://academic.oup.com/treephys/article/41/8/1353/6144557 | 1353-1371 | 41 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | carbon isotopes; forests; oxygen isotopes; trees; wood; altiplano; polylepis; polylepis tarapacana; carbon; oxygen; aridity; carbon dioxide; carbon sink; gas exchange; growth; shrub; stable isotope; stomatal conductance; tree ring; water availability; chemistry; forest; tree; wood, carbon reserves; central andes; drought stress; dryness; evaporative enrichment; lagged response | Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, 10964, NY, United States; CREAF, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallés), Barcelona, Spain; ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys 23, Barcelona, Spain; Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CONICET, Av. Ruiz Leal s/n, Mendoza, 5500, Argentina; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental, Av. San Carlos 1980, Huancayo, 12003, Peru; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ/IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Campus Isla Teja, Valdivia, Los Ríos, 5110566, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, (CR)2, Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, 8370415, Chile; Ecophysiology Laboratory for Forest Conservation, Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Independencia 631, Valdivia, Los Ríos, 5110566, Chile; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, 5th Floor Schermerhorn Extension, 1200 Amsterdam Ave., New York, 10027, NY, United States |
| Assessment of GPM IMERG satellite precipitation estimation and its dependence on microphysical rain regimes over the mountains of south-central Chile | Rojas Y.; Minder J.R.; Campbell L.S.; Massmann A.; Garreaud R. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105454 | Satellite data provide crucial information for those places lacking precipitation observations from ground-based sensors, especially over oceans, mountain regions, or developing countries. This is the case over much of South America, including Chile, a country with complex topography that has limited long-term precipitation records and high-elevation data, and no operational weather radars. This study focuses on investigating the skill of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrieval for GPM (IMERG: version 6) quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). IMERG is assessed against ground-based observations from two field campaigns that took place near 36°S: The Chilean Coastal Orographic Precipitation Experiment (CCOPE; winter 2015), which collected data over the coastal mountain range, and The Chilean Orographic and Mesoscale Precipitation Study (ChOMPS; winter 2016), which collected observations in a transect from the coast to the Andes. To characterize how IMERG performance depends on microphysical regime, we used data from profiling radars and rain gauge measurements to classify rainfall into regimes including “ice-initiated rain” and “warm rain”, characterized by the presence or absence of a well-defined melting layer respectively. Rain gauge data was used to evaluate performance of IMERG QPE overall and for these two regimes. IMERG depicts the general spatial pattern of observed orographic enhancement but highly underestimates the magnitude of this enhancement. At higher elevations during CCOPE, IMERG underestimated the total amount of rainfall by 50%, while during ChOMPS the underestimation was by 16%. For CCOPE, at higher elevation sites, IMERG underestimated ice-initiated rain by 30% and underestimated warm rain by 70%. For ChOMPS, the underestimation at the Andes site was 33% for ice-initiated rain and 50% for warm rain. IMERG QPE for both field campaigns showed larger underestimations for warm rain periods and at higher elevations than for ice-initiated rain periods. Documenting how IMERG performance varies with terrain and microphysical regime may help guide improvements to satellite-based QPE. © 2021 Elsevier B.V. | Atmospheric Research | 01698095 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809521000065 | art105454 | 253 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; developing countries; ice; landforms; meteorological radar; radar measurement; rain gages; satellites; space-based radar; topography; complex topographies; global precipitation measurements; ground based sensors; ground-based observations; orographic enhancement; orographic precipitation; quantitative precipitation estimation; satellite precipitation; assessment method; cloud microphysics; estimation method; precipitation assessment; satellite data; satellite imagery; spatiotemporal analysis; rain, andes; gpm-imerg; micro rain radar; microphysics; orographic precipitation | Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States; Contour Group, Salt Lake City, UT, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, United States; Geophysics Department, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| The 21st-century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile | Scheiter M.; Schaefer M.; Flández E.; Bozkurt D.; Greve R. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021 | Glaciers and ice caps are thinning and retreating along the entire Andes ridge, and drivers of this mass loss vary between the different climate zones. The southern part of the Andes (Wet Andes) has the highest abundance of glaciers in number and size, and a proper understanding of ice dynamics is important to assess their evolution. In this contribution, we apply the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) to the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in the Chilean Lake District (40g g S, 72g g W; Wet Andes) to reproduce its current state and to project its evolution until the end of the 21st century under different global warming scenarios. First, we create a model spin-up using observed surface mass balance data on the south-eastern catchment, extrapolating them to the whole ice cap using an aspect-dependent parameterization. This spin-up is able to reproduce the most important present-day glacier features. Based on the spin-up, we then run the model 80 years into the future, forced by projected surface temperature anomalies from different global climate models under different radiative pathway scenarios to obtain estimates of the ice cap's state by the end of the 21st century. The mean projected ice volume losses are 56±16g % (RCP2.6), 81±6g % (RCP4.5), and 97±2g % (RCP8.5) with respect to the ice volume estimated by radio-echo sounding data from 2013. We estimate the uncertainty of our projections based on the spread of the results when forcing with different global climate models and on the uncertainty associated with the variation of the equilibrium line altitude with temperature change. Considering our results, we project a considerable deglaciation of the Chilean Lake District by the end of the 21st century. © Author(s) 2021. | Cryosphere | 19940416 | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/3637/2021/ | 3637-3654 | 15 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, andes; los rios [chile]; mocho-choshuenco; southern volcanic zone; climate modeling; deglaciation; equilibrium line; glacier dynamics; ice cap; ice sheet; surface temperature; twenty first century | Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; Instituto de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Meteorologiá, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; Institut für Geophysik und Geoinformatik, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Freiberg, Germany |
| Scientific warnings could help to reduce farmed salmon mortality due to harmful algal blooms | Soto D.; León-Muñoz J.; Garreaud R.; Quiñones R.A.; Morey F. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104705 | The increasing occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) affecting mariculture has been related to climatic factors but also to increasing eutrophication of coastal zones, to which aquaculture may also contribute. The role of climate change on HABs may be increasingly relevant but scientific efforts to separate this from other causal factors are to date inconclusive. HABs have been a permanent threat to the aquaculture industry in southern Chile, yet government and farmers may have not paid enough attention to scientific information and advice, even when risk-based predictions and warnings have been provided. Here we describe eutrophication risk assessments for water bodies hosting salmon farms and climate change risk maps for the salmon industry in Chilean Patagonia, including the increase of HABs as a main threat. Assessments and maps were delivered in 2020 both to producers and to government. We show that such risk information and mapping could have lessened recent salmon mortality due to HABs (March-April 2021) if government and farmers had followed explicit recommendations to reduce salmon farming production in water bodies with higher risk. This measure would reduce Exposure and Sensitivity under the climate change risk framework used. We provide policy recommendations, including reviewing maximum salmon production in relevant water bodies such as fjords according to eutrophication risks, while paying attention to additional stress from climate change variability and trends. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd | Marine Policy | 0308597X | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0308597X2100316X | art104705 | 132 | Thomson Reuters SSCI | chile; algal bloom; aquaculture industry; aquaculture production; climate effect; coastal zone; eutrophication; governance approach; mariculture; mortality; risk assessment; salmonid culture, aquaculture; chile; climate change; eutrophication; hab; risks | Interdisciplinary Center for Aquaculture Research, Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Química Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Geofisica, Universidad de Chile, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, CR2, Santiago, Chile; Departmento de Oceanografía, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Science/Policy Intersection, Independent Consultant, Valdivia, Chile |
| The chilean tornado outbreak of may 2019 synoptic, mesoscale, and historical contexts | Vicencio J.; Rondanelli R.; Campos D.; Valenzuela R.; Garreaud R.; Reyes A.; Padilla R.; Abarca R.; Barahona C.; Delgado R.; Nicora G. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0218.1 | In late May 2019, at least seven tornadoes were reported within a 24-h period in southern Chile (western South America, 36°-38°S), including EF1 and EF2 events causing substantial damage to infrastructure, dozens of injuries, and one fatality. Despite anecdotal evidence and chronicles of similar historical events, the threat from tornadoes in Chile was regarded with skepticism until the 2019 outbreak. Herein, we describe the synoptic-scale features instrumental in the development of these tornadic storms, including an extended southwest-northeast trough along the South Pacific, with a large postfrontal instability area. Tornadic storms appear to be embedded in a modestly unstable environment (positive convective available potential energy but less than 1,000 J kg−1) and strong low- and midlevel wind shear, with high near-surface storm-relative helicity values (close to −200 m2 s−2), clearly differing from the Great Plains tornadoes in North America (with highly unstable environments) but resembling cold-season tornadoes previously observed in the midlatitudes of North America, Australia, and Europe. Reanalyzing rainfall and lightning data from the last 10 years, we found that tornadic storms in our region occur associated with locally extreme values of both CAPE and low-level wind shear, where a combination of the two in a low-level vorticity generation parameter appears as a simple first-order discriminant between tornadic and nontornadic environments. Future research should thoroughly examine historical events worldwide to assemble a database of high-shear, low-CAPE midlatitude storms and help improve our understanding of these storms' underlying physics. © 2021 American Meteorological Society | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society | 00030007 | https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-19-0218.1/BAMS-D-19-0218.1.xml | E611-E634 | 102 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | convective clouds; extreme events; mesoscale systems; south america; tornadoes, potential energy; storms; anecdotal evidences; convective available potential energies; lightning datum; low-level winds; mid-latitude storms; tornado outbreak; vorticity generation; western south america; tornadoes | Dirección Meteorológica de Chile, Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Instituto de Ciencias de la Ingeniería, Universidad de O'Higgins, Rancagua, Chile; Dirección Meteorológica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; CEILAP, UNIDEF, (MINDEF-CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina |
| Development and resilience of deciduous Nothofagus forests since the Last Glacial Termination and deglaciation of the central Patagonian Andes | Villa-Martínez R.; Moreno P.I. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1016/j.palaeo.2021.110459 | Resolving the history of vegetation, fire, and glaciation on the eastern slope of the central Patagonian Andes (44°-49°S) since the Last Glacial Termination (T1) has proved difficult. This is due to the steep environmental gradients, vegetation heterogeneity, and scarcity of dated glacial deposits and geomorphic features. Unsurprisingly, published records show important heterogeneities which limit our understanding of the timing and magnitude of climate and vegetation changes, and their driving mechanisms since T1. In this paper, we describe sediment cores from small closed-basin lakes located in the deciduous Nothofagus forest zone near Coyhaique, Chile. Our results indicate that the Coyhaique glacier lobe abandoned its final Last Glacial Maximum position just before ~17.9 cal kyr BP and underwent a step-wise recession that included a halt/readvance that culminated at ~16.8 cal kyr BP, contemporaneous with the formation of an ice-dammed proglacial lake in the Coyhaique/Balmaceda sector. This glacial lake stood at its highest level between ~17.9–17.2 cal kyr BP (<726 and > 650 m.a.s.l.), lowered between ~17.2–16.2 cal kyr BP (<650 and > 570 m.a.s.l.), and disappeared thereafter. Herbs and shrubs, currently dominant in high Andean and Patagonian steppe environments, colonized the ice-free terrains distal to the glacier margins and proglacial lakes under cold and dry conditions. This was followed by a steady increase in Nothofagus between ~16.6–14.8 cal kyr BP that led to the establishment of forests starting at ~14.8 cal kyr BP. The Holocene started with a sudden increase in Nothofagus and disappearance of conifers in the context of increase fire activity between ~11.7–9.4 cal kyr BP. Closed-canopy Nothofagus forests persisted virtually unaltered from ~9.4 cal kyr BP to the present day, despite frequent explosive volcanism and millennial-scale variations in fire regimes, attesting to their extraordinary postglacial resilience which contrasts with their behavior during T1. Recent large-scale deforestation by fire, livestock grazing, and the spread of non-native invasive plant species drove the fastest and largest-magnitude shifts seen during the last ~16,500 years. © 2021 Elsevier B.V. | Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology | 00310182 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0031018221002443 | art110459 | 574 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | andes; coihaique; patagonia; coniferophyta; nothofagus; deciduous forest; deglaciation; ecosystem resilience; forest canopy; glacial lake; holocene; last glacial maximum; proglacial environment; sediment core, abrupt vegetation change; coyhaique/balmaceda proglacial lake; last glacial termination; nothofagus forests; patagonia; southern westerly winds | Centro de Investigación GAIA-Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Avenida Bulnes 01855, Punta Arenas, 6210427, Chile; Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Santiago, 7800003, Chile; Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Santiago, 7800003, Chile; Departamento Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Santiago, 7800003, Chile; Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Universidad de Chile, Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, 8370449, Chile |
| Dominant role of vertical air flows in the unprecedented warming on the Antarctic Peninsula in February 2020 | Xu M.; Yu L.; Liang K.; Vihma T.; Bozkurt D.; Hu X.; Yang Q. | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.1038/s43247-021-00203-w | Near-surface air temperature at the Argentinian research base Esperanza on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula reached 18.3 °C on 6 February 2020, which is the highest temperature ever recorded on the entire Antarctic continent. Here we use weather observations since 1973 together with the ERA5 reanalysis to investigate the circulation that shaped the 2020 event, and its context over the past decades. We find that, during the 2020 event, a high-pressure ridge over the 40°-100°W sector and a blocking high on the Drake Passage led to an anticyclonic circulation that brought warm and moist air from the Pacific Ocean to the Antarctic Peninsula. Vertical air flows in a foehn warming event dominated by sensible heat and radiation made the largest contribution to the abrupt warming. A further analysis with 196 extreme warm events in austral summer between 1973 and 2020 suggests that the mechanisms behind the 2020 event form one of the two most common clusters of the events, exhibiting that most of the extreme warm events at Esperanza station are linked to air masses originating over the Pacific Ocean. © 2021, The Author(s). | Communications Earth and Environment | 26624435 | https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00203-w | art133 | 2 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | antarctica; pacific ocean; air mass; air temperature; air-sea interaction; airflow; anticyclone; atmospheric circulation; sensible heat flux; warming, nan | School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China; MNR Key Laboratory for Polar Science, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai, China; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Meteorology, University of Valparaíso, Valparaíso, and Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile |
| Enfoque Transformación: Adaptación | Aldunce,P.;Rojas,M.;Guevara,G.;Álvarez,C.;Billi,M.;Ibarra,C.;Sapiains,R.; | Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | | El presente documento es un marco conceptual para la incorporación del enfoque
de transformación en las investigaciones de cambio climático con énfasis en la
adaptación y tiene el propósito de apoyar la aplicación del enfoque al trabajo de
investigación del (CR)2 a través de los Temas Integrativos de Floración de Algas Nocivas (FAN), de Seguridad Hídrica (TISHi) y de Gobernanza climática de los elementos.
El enfoque de transformación se compone de distintos conceptos y alcances, de los
que este documento presenta lo medular en tres secciones: (1) Conceptualización
de la transformación y conceptos relacionados; (2) Transformación y adaptación; y
(3) Preguntas orientadoras para la implementación del enfoque de la transformación. | | | https://bit.ly/3JbqskT | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Report to the Nations Climate Governance of the Elements. Towards an Integrated, anticipatory, socio- ecosystemic and evidence- based climate governance of water, air, fire and land. | Billi,M;Moraga,P;Aliste, E,E.;Maillet,A.;O'Ryan,R.;Sapiains A.,R.;Bórquez,R.;Aldunce,P.;Azócar,G.;Blanco,G.;Carrasco,N.;Galleguillos,M.;Hervé,D.;Ibarra,C.;Gallardo,L.;Inostroza,V.;Lambert,F.;Manuschevic,D.;Martínez,F.;Osses,M.;Rivas,N.;Rojas,M.;Seguel,R.;Tolvett,S.;Ugarte,A.; | Agua y Extremos; Zonas Costeras; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | 2021 | | Humanity has become one of the greatest transformative forces of the planet, generating significant (and
sometimes irreversible) changes in geophysical and
ecological balances with potentially catastrophic and
partly still unknown consequences (Foster et al., 2017;
Rockström et al., 2009; Steffen et al, 2007). Among all
these alterations, climate change possesses predominant importance due to the magnitude and scale of
its potential consequences, as well as the complexity
and the controversies that have characterized the attempts to address it (Coninck et al, 2018; IPCC, 2018).
Contemplating this scenario entails a double dilemma.
On one hand, it implies the need for urgent, coordinated and transformative actions on multiple scales and
domains that address the drivers that cause climate
change, as well as its significant and unequal effects
on different territories and populations. On the other,
it faces the insufficiency, biases and limitations shown
by traditional governance models in dealing with these
challenges. | | | https://bit.ly/3JdvVbd | 69 | | Not Indexed | | |
| Informe a las Naciones Gobernanza Climática de los Elementos. Hacia una gobernanza climática del agua, el aire, el fuego y la tierra en Chile, integrada, anticipatoria, socio-ecosistémica y fundada en evidencia. | Billi,M;Moraga,P;Aliste, E,E.;Maillet,A.;O'Ryan,R.;Sapiains A.,R.;Bórquez,R.;Aldunce,P.;Azócar,G.;Blanco,G.;Carrasco,N.;Galleguillos,M.;Hervé,D.;Ibarra,C.;Gallardo,L.;Inostroza,V.;Lambert,F.;Manuschevic,D.;Martínez,F.;Osses,M.;Rivas,N.;Rojas,M.;Seguel,R.;Tolvett,S.;Ugarte,A.; | Agua y Extremos; Zonas Costeras; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | 2021 | | La humanidad se ha vuelto una de las mayores fuerzas transformadoras del planeta, generando cambios significativos (y en ocasiones irreversibles) en los
equilibrios geofísicos y ecológicos, con consecuencias
potencialmente catastróficas y en parte aún desconocidas (Foster et al., 2017; Rockström et al., 2009; Steffen
et al., 2007). Entre todas estas alteraciones, el cambio
climático adquiere una importancia preponderante
debido a la magnitud y escala de sus posibles consecuencias, así como por la complejidad y las controversias que ha caracterizado los intentos de hacerle frente
(de Coninck et al., 2018; IPCC, 2018). Contemplar este escenario implica un doble dilema. Por un lado, supone la
necesidad de acciones urgentes, concertadas y transformativas, en múltiples escalas y dominios, que lleven
a hacerse cargo de los forzantes que causan el cambio
climático, sus efectos significativos y desiguales en distintos territorios y poblaciones. Por el otro, se enfrenta
a la insuficiencia, parcialidad y limitación demostrada
por los modelos tradicionales de gobernanza para enfrentar estos desafíos. | | | https://bit.ly/3JdvVbd | 69 | | Not Indexed | | |
| Observatorio de Nieve en los Andes de Argentina y Chile. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología, y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA-CONICET). Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)². | Cara,Leandro Javier;Masiokas,Mariano;Villalba,Ricardo;Garreaud,René;Christie,Duncan A.; | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.13140/RG.2.2.11321.70245 | | | | http://rgdoi.net/10.13140/RG.2.2.11321.70245 | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Explorador del Atlas de Sequías de Sudamérica, https://sada.cr2.cl | Ferrada,Andres;Christie,Duncan A.;Muñoz,Francisca;Reyes,Alvaro Gonzalez;Garreaud,Rene D;Bustos,Susana; | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2021 | 10.13140/RG.2.2.14020.35209 | | | | http://rgdoi.net/10.13140/RG.2.2.14020.35209 | | | Not Indexed | | |
| He Antropoceno i a Tire: he mata ꞌite he haka pūai | Gallardo,L.;Rudnick,A.;Barraza,J.;Fleming,Z.;Rojas,M.;Gayó,E.;Aguirre,C.;Farías,L.;Boisier,J. P.;Garreaud,R.;Barría,P.;Miranda,A.;Lara,A.;Gómez,S.;Arriagada,R.; | Agua y Extremos; Zonas Costeras; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | 2021 | | Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia mew (CR)2, ta
iñ kvzawkan mew zujiyiñ fey ta nvxamkagelu Anxopozeno
zugu mew ta iñ inarumeael ka ta iñ gvnezuamael. Femgeci
ta cijkatuyiñ cumgeci cambio climático vñfitumapukey
kiñeke mapu mew Cile mew fanten mew, ta iñ kejuael
zugu mew cew ta cijkatugekey ka gvnezuamgekey weke
rvpv ta iñ kvme wimturpuael zugu mew mvlelu fanten
mew. Wvnelu ta inarumeyiñ ta pu registro geohistórico
pegeltulu cumgeci ta wizvmapukunurpukefuy kuyfi
mew ta cegen mapu mew Cile pigelu faciantv; fey mew
kvmeafuy wiñokintuliyiñ feyti mew kuyfi mew rupalu
ka kejuafulu sistemas socio-ecológicos zugu mew ta
kvpaialu. | | | https://bit.ly/3sAJOdv | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Anxopozeno Cile mew: Ta iñ inazuamfiel ka cumgeci amulerpuael | Gallardo,L.;Rudnick,A.;Barraza,J.;Fleming,Z.;Rojas,M.;Gayó,E.;Aguirre,C.;Farías,L.;Boisier,J. P.;Garreaud,R.;Barría,P.;Miranda,A.;Lara,A.;Gómez,S.;Arriagada,R.; | Agua y Extremos; Zonas Costeras; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | 2021 | | Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia mew (CR)2, ta
iñ kvzawkan mew zujiyiñ fey ta nvxamkagelu Anxopozeno
zugu mew ta iñ inarumeael ka ta iñ gvnezuamael. Femgeci
ta cijkatuyiñ cumgeci cambio climático vñfitumapukey
kiñeke mapu mew Cile mew fanten mew, ta iñ kejuael
zugu mew cew ta cijkatugekey ka gvnezuamgekey weke
rvpv ta iñ kvme wimturpuael zugu mew mvlelu fanten
mew. Wvnelu ta inarumeyiñ ta pu registro geohistórico
pegeltulu cumgeci ta wizvmapukunurpukefuy kuyfi
mew ta cegen mapu mew Cile pigelu faciantv; fey mew
kvmeafuy wiñokintuliyiñ feyti mew kuyfi mew rupalu
ka kejuafulu sistemas socio-ecológicos zugu mew ta
kvpaialu. | | | https://bit.ly/3FyHHL0 | | | Not Indexed | | |
| La ciudad del mañana en la nueva constitución: Una mirada desde la Patagonia | Moraga,P.;Sapiains A.,R.;Rojas,M.;Medina,L.;Valenzuela,C.;Cornejo,C.;Pulgar,A.;Aldunce,P.;Urquiza,A.;Azócar,G.;Sepúlveda,B.; | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 2021 | | Entre agosto 202 y septiembre 2021, un equipo interdisciplinario de la Universidad de Chile, del Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2 y con el apoyo del Centro de Investigación GAIA Antártica (CIGA) de la Universidad de Magallanes, desarrolló el proyecto "Laboratorio social para la cosntrucción comunitaria de bases constitucionales para una sociedad resiliente al cambio climático, una perspectiva desde la Patagonia". | Universida de Chile, Vicerrectoría de Investigación y Desarrollo. | | https://bit.ly/3qiXEOX | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Encuesta sobre percepciones de la ciudadanía de Punta Arenas sobre cambio climático, gobernanza climática y aspectos constitucionales. | Moraga,P;Sapiain,R;Aldunce,P;Urquiza,A;Rojas,M;Medina,L;Valenzuela,C;Cornejo,C; | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 2021 | | Entre agosto 202 y septiembre 2021, un equipo interdisciplinario de la Universidad de Chile, del Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2 y con el apoyo del Centro de Investigación GAIA Antártica (CIGA) de la Universidad de Magallanes, desarrolló el proyecto "Laboratorio social para la cosntrucción comunitaria de bases constitucionales para una sociedad resiliente al cambio climático, una perspectiva desde la Patagonia". | | | https://bit.ly/3pxYatd | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Apropiación del agua y producción del espacio. La dimensión espacial del derecho de aguas en el Valle del Elqui (Chile) | Nicolas-Artero,Chloé; | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | | Desde la geografía ambiental y jurídica, esta tesis de doctorado da cuenta de las relaciones entre la apropiación del agua y la producción del espacio. Este enfoque permite analizar la dimensión espacial del derecho de aguas. El aporte conceptual de la tesis reside en proponer la noción de sistema geolegal fluvial para estudiar, desde una perspectiva multiescalar y diacrónica, las relaciones de poder que se dan en la definición de las normas jurídicas de reparto, distribución y administración del agua. La investigación emplea una metodología cualitativa (etnografía, entrevistas semi-estructuradas, consulta de archivos) y el uso de datos cuantitativos. Las entrevistas se realizaron a múltiples actores: representantes de autoridades e instituciones estatales, empresarios y asociaciones gremiales, organizaciones de regantes y habitantes. | Quid16. Revista del Área de Estudios Urbanos. | 2250-4060 | https://publicaciones.sociales.uba.ar/index.php/quid16/article/view/7141 | 264-267 | 16 | Erih, Latindex | | |
| Marco teórico de Transformación: Cómo nos transformamos para responder a los crecientes impactos del cambio climático | Salgado,M;Aldunce,P; | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | | El cambio climático es uno de los mayores desafíos que la ha tenido que enfrentar, requiriendo que la sociedad deba responder de manera urgente y colaborativa, con el objetivo de disminuir los crecientes impactos que este fenómeno produce, los que han ido en aumentando tanto en severidad, como en magnitud (IPCC, 2018). | | | https://bit.ly/3ISdjNz | 23 | | Not Indexed | | |
| Informe ¿Sequía o Aridización? ¿Qué haremos para enfrentar esta nueva normalidad? | Villanueva,L;Ormazábal,B;Garreaud,R.; | Agua y Extremos | 2021 | | La Sección de Emergencias y Gestión de Riesgos Agrícolas, en su propósito de generar
conciencia y buscar soluciones para abordar los riesgos que afectan recurrentemente a la
agricultura y sus agricultores, busca desarrollar espacios de integración, conversación y
colaboración. Una de estas instancias es el Outlook Estacional,
El encuentro realizado el 12 de mayo, titulado “¿Sequía o aridización? Outlook Estacional
otoño-invierno 2021, reunió a representantes de los distintos sectores del agro, de las
instituciones que otorgan servicios en meteorológica e hidrología, expertos de la academia y
público en general. Su objetivo fue conocer y analizar la situación climática con el fin
de proponer/acordar medidas de adaptación.
El presente documento ha sido elaborado con el fin de dejar un testimonio del desarrollo del
encuentro en su contenido técnico, académico e institucional, incluyendo las opiniones y
aportes de los participantes. Así también, busca relevar la importancia de este tipo de
encuentros para el público de interés, quienes requieren más información, herramientas,
nueva tecnología, integración de los organismos público-privado e instancias participativas
para, en conjunto, buscar/implementar soluciones y así minimizar los impactos de la sequía
que se vienen presentando ya hace una década. | MINAGRI | | https://bit.ly/3Ewl2O3 | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Large-sample hydrology: recent progress, guidelines for new datasets and grand challenges | Addor N.; Do H.X.; Alvarez-Garreton C.; Coxon G.; Fowler K.; Mendoza P.A. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1080/02626667.2019.1683182 | Large-sample hydrology (LSH) relies on data from large sets (tens to thousands) of catchments to go beyond individual case studies and derive robust conclusions on hydrological processes and models. Numerous LSH datasets have recently been released, covering a wide range of regions and relying on increasingly diverse data sources to characterize catchment behaviour. These datasets offer novel opportunities, yet they are also limited by their lack of comparability, uncertainty estimates and characterization of human impacts. This article (i) underscores the key role of LSH datasets in hydrological studies, (ii) provides a review of currently available LSH datasets, (iii) highlights current limitations of LSH datasets and (iv) proposes guidelines and coordinated actions to overcome these limitations. These guidelines and actions aim to standardize and automatize the creation of LSH datasets worldwide, and to enhance the reproducibility and comparability of hydrological studies. © 2019, © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. | Hydrological Sciences Journal | 02626667 | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2019.1683182 | 712-725 | 65 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | cloud computing; data standardization; data uncertainties; human interventions; reproducibility of hydrological experiments; streamflow records, catchments; cloud computing; runoff; uncertainty analysis; data standardization; data uncertainty; human intervention; reproducibilities; streamflow records; anthropogenic effect; automation; catchment; data management; data set; guideline; hydrological modeling; parallel computing; standardization; streamflow; large dataset | Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Nong Lam University, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam; School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Advanced Mining Technology Center, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| A Network for Advancing Dendrochronology, Dendrochemistry and Dendrohydrology in South America | Aguilera-Betti I.; Lucas C.; Ferrero M.E.; Muñoz A.A. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.3959/TRR2019-12 | Tree-ring research (TRR) in South America (SA) continues to make important contributions in multiple sub-disciplines, including dendrochemistry and dendrohydrology. This report describes some of the advances in TRR in SA presented in a two-day International Meeting Research entitled "An International Network to Promote Advances in Dendrochronology in South America", organized by the Laboratory of Dendrochronology and Environmental Studies of the Pontifical Catholic University of Valparaíso in Valparaíso, Chile, on January 21-22, 2019. The objective of the meeting was to communicate recent advances in TRR within a network of laboratories in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Uruguay. Novel methodologies and results in dendrochemistry and wood anatomy were also presented by collaborating researchers from German institutions. This report describes some of the research within the subdisciplines of tree-ring science, including dendrochemistry, anatomy and dendrohydrology, and their application to understanding spatio-temporal variability in heavy metal contamination, climate, hydrology, fire regimes and other critical components of South American forest and woodland ecosystems. The meeting demonstrated expansion and diversification of inquiry and applications of TRR in SA, whereby collaboration across research centers has been critical for the advances made in broad-scale comparative studies as well as multi-proxy approaches and the study of global and hemisphere-scale climate phenomena. Copyright © 2020 by the Tree-Ring Society. | Tree-Ring Research | 15361098 | https://bioone.org/journals/tree-ring-research/volume-76/issue-2/TRR2019-12/A-Network-for-Advancing-Dendrochronology-Dendrochemistry-and-Dendrohydrology-in-South/10.3959/TRR2019-12.full | 94-101 | 76 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chemical analysis; climate; pollution; stable isotopes; trace elements; tree rings; wood anatomy, nan | Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Estudios Ambientales, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro Transdisciplinario de Estudios Ambientales y Desarrollo Humano Sostenible (CEAM), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Polo Ecología Fluvial, Departamento Del Agua, Universidad de la Republica, Paysandú, Uruguay; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental, IANIGLA-CONICET, Mendoza, Argentina; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental, Huancayo, Peru; Centro de Ciencia Del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2), Santiago, Chile |
| Extreme drought affects visitation and seed set in a plant species in the central chilean andes heavily dependent on hummingbird pollination | Arroyo M.T.K.; Robles V.; Tamburrino Í.; Martínez-Harms J.; Garreaud R.D.; Jara-Arancio P.; Pliscoff P.; Copier A.; Arenas J.; Keymer J.; Castro K. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.3390/plants9111553 | Rising temperatures and increasing drought in Mediterranean-type climate areas are expected to affect plant–pollinator interactions, especially in plant species with specialised pollination. Central Chile experienced a mega drought between 2010 and 2020 which reached an extreme in the austral summer of 2019–2020. Based on intensive pollinator sampling and floral studies we show that the subalpine form of Mutisia subulata (Asteraceae) is a specialised hummingbird-pollinated species. In a two-year study which included the severest drought year, we quantified visitation frequency, flower-head density, flower-head visitation rates, two measures of floral longevity, nectar characteristics and seed set and monitored climatic variables to detect direct and indirect climate-related effects on pollinator visitation. Flower-head density, nectar standing crop and seed set were significantly reduced in the severest drought year while nectar concentration increased. The best model to explain visitation frequency included flower-head density, relative humidity, temperature, and nectar standing crop with highly significant effects of the first three variables. Results for flower-head density suggest hummingbirds were able to associate visual signals with reduced resource availability and/or were less abundant. The negative effect of lower relative humidity suggests the birds were able to perceive differences in nectar concentration. Reduced seed set per flower-head together with the availability of far fewer ovules in the 2019–2020 austral summer would have resulted in a major reduction in seed set. Longer and more intense droughts in this century could threaten local population persistence in M. subulata. © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. | Plants | 22237747 | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/9/11/1553 | art1553, 1-28 | 9 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | central chile; extreme drought; floral longevity; floral resources; hummingbird-pollination; mutisia subulata; oreotrochilus leucopleurus; seed set; visitation rates, nan | Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, 7800003, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB), Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, 7800003, Santiago, Chile; INIA, La Cruz, Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias, Chorrillos 86, La Cruz, 2280454, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Avenida Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, 8370449, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2), Universidad de Chile, Avenida Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, 8370449, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas y Departamento de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andrés Bello, Republica 252, Santiago, 8370134, Chile; Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Alameda 340, Santiago, 8331150, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Facultad de Historia, Geografía y Ciencia Política, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avenida Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, 7820436, Santiago, Chile |
| RF-MEP: A novel Random Forest method for merging gridded precipitation products and ground-based measurements | Baez-Villanueva O.M.; Zambrano-Bigiarini M.; Beck H.E.; McNamara I.; Ribbe L.; Nauditt A.; Birkel C.; Verbist K.; Giraldo-Osorio J.D.; Xuan Thinh N. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1016/j.rse.2019.111606 | The accurate representation of spatio-temporal patterns of precipitation is an essential input for numerous environmental applications. However, the estimation of precipitation patterns derived solely from rain gauges is subject to large uncertainties. We present the Random Forest based MErging Procedure (RF-MEP), which combines information from ground-based measurements, state-of-the-art precipitation products, and topography-related features to improve the representation of the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation, especially in data-scarce regions. RF-MEP is applied over Chile for 2000—2016, using daily measurements from 258 rain gauges for model training and 111 stations for validation. Two merged datasets were computed: RF-MEP3P (based on PERSIANN-CDR, ERA-Interim, and CHIRPSv2) and RF-MEP5P (which additionally includes CMORPHv1 and TRMM 3B42v7). The performances of the two merged products and those used in their computation were compared against MSWEPv2.2, which is a state-of-the-art global merged product. A validation using ground-based measurements was applied at different temporal scales using both continuous and categorical indices of performance. RF-MEP3P and RF-MEP5P outperformed all the precipitation datasets used in their computation, the products derived using other merging techniques, and generally outperformed MSWEPv2.2. The merged P products showed improvements in the linear correlation, bias, and variability of precipitation at different temporal scales, as well as in the probability of detection, the false alarm ratio, the frequency bias, and the critical success index for different precipitation intensities. RF-MEP performed well even when the training dataset was reduced to 10% of the available rain gauges. Our results suggest that RF-MEP could be successfully applied to any other region and to correct other climatological variables, assuming that ground-based data are available. An R package to implement RF-MEP is freely available online at https://github.com/hzambran/RFmerge. © 2019 Elsevier Inc. | Remote Sensing of Environment | 00344257 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0034425719306261 | art111606 | 239 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | bias correction; merging; precipitation; precipitation products; random forest; rf-mep, chile; decision trees; merging; precipitation (chemical); rain gages; topography; bias correction; environmental applications; ground based measurement; precipitation products; probability of detection; random forests; rf-mep; spatiotemporal distributions; algorithm; correction; data set; ground-based measurement; measurement method; model validation; numerical method; precipitation (climatology); raingauge; topography; trmm; uncertainty analysis; rain | Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics (ITT), TH Köln, Cologne, Germany; Faculty of Spatial Planning, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de la Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, United States; Geography Department, University of Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica; Northern Rivers Institute, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom; UNESCO International Hydrological Programme, Paris, France; Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá, Colombia |
| Bias correction of global high-resolution precipitation climatologies using streamflow observations from 9372 catchments | Beck H.E.; Wood E.F.; McVicar T.R.; Zambrano-Bigiarini M.; Alvarez-Garreton C.; Baez-Villanueva O.M.; Sheffield J.; Karger D.N. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0332.1 | We introduce a set of global high-resolution (0.058) precipitation (P) climatologies corrected for bias using streamflow (Q) observations from 9372 stations worldwide. For each station, we inferred the ‘‘true’’ long-term P using a Budyko curve, which is an empirical equation relating long-term P, Q, and potential evaporation. We subsequently calculated long-term bias correction factors for three state-of-the-art P climatologies [the ‘‘WorldClim version 2’’ database (WorldClim V2); Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth’s Land Surface Areas, version 1.2 (CHELSA V1.2); and Climate Hazards Group Precipitation Climatology, version 1 (CHPclim V1)], after which we used random-forest regression to produce global gap-free bias correction maps for the P climatologies. Monthly climatological bias correction factors were calculated by disaggregating the long-term bias correction factors on the basis of gauge catch efficiencies. We found that all three climatologies systematically underestimate P over parts of all major mountain ranges globally, despite the explicit consideration of orography in the production of each climatology. In addition, all climatologies underestimate P at latitudes .608N, likely because of gauge undercatch. Exceptionally high long-term correction factors (.1.5) were obtained for all three P climatologies in Alaska, High Mountain Asia, and Chile—regions characterized by marked elevation gradients, sparse gauge networks, and significant snowfall. Using the bias-corrected WorldClim V2, we demonstrated that other widely used P datasets (GPCC V2015, GPCP V2.3, and MERRA-2) severely underestimate P over Chile, the Himalayas, and along the Pacific coast of North America. Mean P for the global land surface based on the bias-corrected WorldClim V2 is 862 mm yr21 (a 9.4% increase over the original WorldClim V2). The annual and monthly bias-corrected P climatologies have been released as the Precipitation Bias Correction (PBCOR) dataset, which is available online (http://www.gloh2o.org/pbcor/). © 2020 American Meteorological Society. | Journal of Climate | 08948755 | http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0332.1 | 1299-1315 | 33 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, catchments; decision trees; earth (planet); gages; random forests; stream flow; surface measurement; correction factors; elevation gradient; empirical equations; global land surface; mountain ranges; potential evaporation; precipitation climatology; state of the art; catchment; correlation; precipitation (climatology); rainfall-runoff modeling; raingauge; sampling bias; spatial resolution; streamflow; climatology | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; CSIRO Land and Water, Black Mountain, Canberra, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Canberra, Australia; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Institute of Conservation, Biodiversity and Territory, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics (ITT), Technology Arts Sciences TH Koln, €, Cologne, Germany; Faculty of Spatial Planning, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany; School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland |
| Hydrological Processes Special Issue “Hydrological processes across climatic and geomorphological gradients of Latin America” | Birkel C.; Moore G.W.; Zambrano-Bigiarini M. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1002/hyp.13648 | [No abstract available] | Hydrological Processes | 08856087 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/hyp.13648 | 156-158 | 34 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | | Department of Geography and Water and Global Change Observatory, University of Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica; Northern Rivers Institute, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom; Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de la Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Recent Near-surface Temperature Trends in the Antarctic Peninsula from Observed, Reanalysis and Regional Climate Model Data | Bozkurt D.; Bromwich D.H.; Carrasco J.; Hines K.M.; Maureira J.C.; Rondanelli R. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1007/s00376-020-9183-x | This study investigates the recent near-surface temperature trends over the Antarctic Peninsula. We make use of available surface observations, ECMWF’s ERA5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim, as well as numerical simulations, allowing us to contrast different data sources. We use hindcast simulations performed with Polar-WRF over the Antarctic Peninsula on a nested domain configuration at 45 km (PWRF-45) and 15 km (PWRF-15) spatial resolutions for the period 1991-2015. In addition, we include hindcast simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica domain (~50 km) for further comparisons. Results show that there is a marked windward warming trend except during summer. This windward warming trend is particularly notable in the autumn season and likely to be associated with the recent deepening of the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea low and warm advection towards the Antarctic Peninsula. On the other hand, an overall summer cooling is characterized by the strengthening of the Weddell Sea low as well as an anticyclonic trend over the Amundsen Sea accompanied by northward winds. The persistent cooling trend observed at the Larsen Ice Shelf station is not captured by ERA-Interim, whereas hindcast simulations indicate that there is a clear pattern of windward warming and leeward cooling. Furthermore, larger temporal correlations and lower differences exhibited by PWRF-15 illustrate the existence of the added value in the higher spatial resolution simulation. © 2020, The Author(s). | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences | 02561530 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00376-020-9183-x | 477-493 | 37 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | added value; amundsen/bellingshausen sea; cloud computing; dynamical downscaling; reanalysis; temperature trend; weddell sea; 宋米荣, nan | Department of Meteorology, University of Valparaíso, Valparaíso, 2340000, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, 8320000, Chile; Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, 43210, OH, United States; Centro de Investigación GAIA Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, 6200000, Chile; Center for Mathematical Modeling (CMM), University of Chile, Santiago, 8320000, Chile; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, 8320000, Chile |
| Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on South America | Cai W.; McPhaden M.J.; Grimm A.M.; Rodrigues R.R.; Taschetto A.S.; Garreaud R.D.; Dewitte B.; Poveda G.; Ham Y.-G.; Santoso A.; Ng B.; Anderson W.; Wang G.; Geng T.; Jo H.-S.; Marengo J.A.; Alves L.M.; Osman M.; Li S.; Wu L.; Karamperidou C.; Takahashi K.; Vera C. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1038/s43017-020-0040-3 | The climate of South America (SA) has long held an intimate connection with El Niño, historically describing anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures off the coastline of Peru. Indeed, throughout SA, precipitation and temperature exhibit a substantial, yet regionally diverse, relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For example, El Niño is typically accompanied by drought in the Amazon and north-eastern SA, but flooding in the tropical west coast and south-eastern SA, with marked socio-economic effects. In this Review, we synthesize the understanding of ENSO teleconnections to SA. Recent efforts have sought improved understanding of ocean–atmosphere processes that govern the impact, inter-event and decadal variability, and responses to anthropogenic warming. ENSO’s impacts have been found to vary markedly, affected not only by ENSO diversity, but also by modes of variability within and outside of the Pacific. However, while the understanding of ENSO–SA relationships has improved, with implications for prediction and projection, uncertainty remains in regards to the robustness of the impacts, inter-basin climate interactions and interplay with greenhouse warming. A coordinated international effort is, therefore, needed to close the observational, theoretical and modelling gaps currently limiting progress, with specific efforts in extending palaeoclimate proxies further back in time, reducing systematic model errors and improving simulations of ENSO diversity and teleconnections. © 2020, Springer Nature Limited. | Nature Reviews Earth and Environment | 2662138X | http://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-020-0040-3 | 215-231 | 1 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | | Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia; NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States; Department of Physics, Federal University of Paraná, Curitiba, Brazil; Department of Oceanography, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Brazil; Climate Change Research Centre and Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile; Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), La Serena, Chile; Departamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo, Chile; Millennium Nucleus for Ecology and Sustainable Management of Oceanic Islands (ESMOI), Coquimbo, Chile; RD/LEGOS, Toulouse, France; Escuela de Geociencias y Medio Ambiente, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Colombia; Department of Oceanography, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, South Korea; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais, Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação,... |
| Transformation of social capital during and after a disaster event: the cases Chañaral and Diego de Almagro, Atacama Region, Chile | Castro-Correa C.-P.; Aldunce Ide P.; Wyndham Vásquez K.; Mena Maldonado D.; Pérez Tello S. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1007/s11069-020-04091-9 | This article analyzes the impact of socio-natural disasters on social capital at a local level, studying the cases of the communities of Chañaral and Diego de Almagro after the flooding and mudflow disasters of 2015. Specifically, we explore different dynamics of social capital in the response to the emergency, recovery and reconstruction stages, exploring its role in strengthening adaptation and resilience capacities for disaster risk reduction. Through the qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews with survivors of the disaster, we explore the nature and role of social trust and its influence on the formation and consolidation of bonding, bridging and linking social capital in the context of disaster is analyzed. The results unpack the role of social capital in the response, recovery and reconstruction processes after a disaster event, which directly influences the development and consolidation of capacities for community adaptation, highlighting the role of trust for the strengthening of resilience. Likewise, the article provides details about the role of institutions and authorities in the consolidation of bridging and linking social capital, which requires the generation of formal and fluid communication channels that allow for the creation of trust, not only among the members of the community, but between the community and the institutions and authorities. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. | Natural Hazards | 0921030X | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04091-9 | 2427-2440 | 103 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | atacama; chanaral island; chile; diego de almagro island; magallanes; adaptive management; consolidation; disaster management; flooding; local participation; mudflow; qualitative analysis; social capital, disaster risk reduction; social capital; social trust | Departament of Geography, Faculty of Architecture and Urbanism, University of Chile, Av. Portugal 84, Santiago, Chile; Departament of Environmental Science and Renewable Natural Resources, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Chile, Av. Santa Rosa 11315, La Pintana, Chile; Renewable Natural Resources Engineer, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Chile, Av. Santa Rosa 11315, La Pintana, Chile; Departament of Psychology, Faculty Social Sciences, University of Chile. Av, Capitán Ignacio Pinto 1045, Ñuñoa, Chile; Program for Disasters and Risk Reduction, CITRID, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research CR2, Santiago, Chile |
| First snow, glacier and groundwater contribution quantification in the upper Mendoza River basin using stable water isotopes | Crespo S.A.; Fernandoy F.; Cara L.; Klarian S.; Lavergne C. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1080/10256016.2020.1797713 | The Mendoza River streamflow, South America (∼32 °S), derives almost exclusively from winter snow precipitation falling in the Andes. Almost 70% of the water feeding the river originates in the Cordillera Principal geological province. In addition to the snow that precipitates in this area, there are 951 cryoforms providing meltwater to the upper catchment. Given the high inter-annual variability of snowfall and the megadrought affecting the region since 2010, it is crucial to quantify the contribution from different water sources buffering the Mendoza River runoff. Combining instrumental records of streamflow from glaciers and rivers, meteorological data, remote sensing of snow-covered areas and ionic and stable isotope analysis of different water sources, this study attempts to understand the hydrological contribution of different water sources to the basin. We demonstrated for the first time the relevance of different water sources in addition to snow in a dry period. During the melting season, 65% of the streamwaters originated from the glaciers (i.e. 50 and 15% from glaciers and rock glaciers, respectively), representing a higher proportion compared to snowmelt (17%). Groundwater input showed relatively large contributions, averaging 18%. This work offers information to develop adaptation strategies for future climate change scenarios in the region. © 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. | Isotopes in Environmental and Health Studies | 10256016 | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10256016.2020.1797713 | 566-585 | 56 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; climate change; groundwater; groundwater; hydrogen-2; isotope hydrology; mendoza river; oxygen-18; rock glacier; snow; water sources, altitude; chile; climate change; deuterium; environmental monitoring; groundwater; hydrology; ice cover; isotopes; oxygen isotopes; rivers; seasons; snow; water cycle; andes; argentina; mendoza; mendoza river; deuterium; ground water; isotope; oxygen; snow; climate change; glacier dynamics; groundwater; hydrogen isotope; oxygen isotope; rock glacier; snow cover; stable isotope; streamflow; water quality; altitude; chemistry; chile; climate change; environmental monitoring; hydrology; ice cover; procedures; river; season; water cycle | Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Instituto Argentino de Nivología Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales, Mendoza, Argentina; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Laboratorio de Análisis Isotópicos, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Andres Bello, Viña del Mar, Chile; Centro de Investigación Marina Quintay (CIMARQ), Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andres Bello, Santiago, Chile; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States; Centro de Estudios Avanzados, University of Playa Ancha, Viña del Mar, Chile; Environmental HUB UPLA, University of Playa Ancha, Valparaíso, Chile |
| Where does the chilean aconcagua river come from? Use of natural tracers for water genesis characterization in glacial and periglacial environments | Crespo S.A.; Lavergne C.; Fernandoy F.; Muñoz A.A.; Cara L.; Olfos-Vargas S. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.3390/w12092630 | The Aconcagua river basin (Chile, 32◦S) has suffered the effects of the megadrought over the last decade. The severe snowfall deficiency drastically modified the water supply to the catchment headwaters. Despite the recognized snowmelt contribution to the basin, an unknown streamflow buffering effect is produced by glacial, periglacial and groundwater inputs, especially in dry periods. Hence, each type of water source was characterized and quantified for each season, through the combination of stable isotope and ionic analyses as natural water tracers. The δ18O and electric conductivity were identified as the key parameters for the differentiation of each water source. The use of these parameters in the stable isotope mixing “simmr” model revealed that snowmelt input accounted 52% in spring and only 22–36% during the rest of the year in the headwaters. While glacial supply contributed up to 34%, both groundwater and periglacial exhibited a remarkable contribution around 20% with some seasonal variations. Downstream, glacial contribution averaged 15–20%, groundwater seasonally increased up to 46%, and periglacial input was surprisingly high (i.e., 14–21%). The different water sources contribution quantification over time for the Aconcagua River reported in this work provides key information for water security in this territory. © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. | Water (Switzerland) | 20734441 | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/9/2630 | art2630 | 12 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | central andes; glaciers; groundwater; natural tracers; rock glaciers; snow; stable isotopes; water sources, aconcagua river; chile; valparaiso [chile]; catchments; glacial geology; groundwater; isotopes; rivers; snow melting systems; water supply; buffering effect; ionic analysis; natural tracers; natural waters; seasonal variation; stable isotopes; water genesis; water security; catchment; ionic composition; river basin; seasonal variation; snowmelt; stable isotope; streamflow; tracers | Instituto de Geografía, Facultad de Ciencias del Mar y Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, 2362807, Chile; Laboratory of Aquatic Environmental Research, Centro de Estudios Avanzados, Universidad de Playa Ancha, Viña del Mar, 2581782, Chile; HUB Ambiental UPLA, Universidad de Playa Ancha, Valparaíso, 234000, Chile; Laboratorio de Análisis Isotópico (LAI), Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Andrés Bello, Viña del Mar, 2531015, Chile; Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA-CONICET), Mendoza, 5500, Argentina |
| Connection between antarctic ozone and climate: Interannual precipitation changes in the Southern Hemisphere | Damiani A.; Cordero R.R.; Llanillo P.J.; Feron S.; Boisier J.P.; Garreaud R.; Rondanelli R.; Irie H.; Watanabe S. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.3390/atmos11060579 | In this study, we explored the connection between anomalies in springtime Antarctic ozone and all-year precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere by using observations from 1960-2018 and coupled simulations for 1960-2050. The observations showed that this correlation was enhanced during the last several decades, when a simultaneously increased coupling between ozone and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies became broader, covering most of the following summer and part of the previous winter. For eastern Australia, the ozone-precipitation connection shows a greater persistence toward the following summer than for other regions. On the other hand, for South America, the ozone-precipitation correlation seems more robust, especially in the early summer. There, the correlation also covers part of the previous winter, suggesting that winter planetary waves could affect both parameters. Further, we estimated the sensitivity of precipitation to changes in Antarctic ozone. In both observations and simulations, we found comparable sensitivity values during the spring-summer period. Overall, our results indicate that ozone anomalies can be understood as a tracer of stratospheric circulation. However, simulations indicate that stratospheric ozone chemistry still contributes to strengthening the interannual relationship between ozone and surface climate. Because simulations reproduced most of the observed connections, we suggest that including ozone variability in seasonal forecasting systems can potentially improve predictions. © 2020 by the authors. | Atmosphere | 20734433 | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/6/579 | art579 | 11 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | antarctica; ozone layer; coupled simulation; precipitation change; seasonal forecasting; sensitivity values; southern annular mode; southern hemisphere; stratospheric circulations; stratospheric ozone chemistry; annual variation; anomaly; atmospheric chemistry; computer simulation; ozone; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; southern hemisphere; ozone, climate; ozone hole; precipitation | Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba, 263-8522, Japan; Department of Physics, Santiago University, Santiago, 9170022, Chile; Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, 27515, Germany; School of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, 94305, CA, United States; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 6511227, Chile; Department, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan |
| Hydroclimate of the Andes Part I: Main Climatic Features | Espinoza J.C.; Garreaud R.; Poveda G.; Arias P.A.; Molina-Carpio J.; Masiokas M.; Viale M.; Scaff L. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.3389/feart.2020.00064 | The Andes is the longest cordillera in the world and extends from northern South America to the southern extreme of the continent (from 11°N to 53°S). The Andes runs through seven countries and is characterized by a wide variety of ecosystems strongly related to the contrasting climate over its eastern and western sides, as well as along its latitudinal extension. This region faces very high potential impacts of climate change, which could affect food and water security for about 90 million people. In addition, climate change represents an important threat on biodiversity, particularly in the tropical Andes, which is the most biodiverse region on Earth. From a scientific and societal view, the Andes exhibits specific challenges because of its unique landscape and the fragile equilibrium between the growing population and its environment. In this manuscript, we provide an updated review of the most relevant scientific literature regarding the hydroclimate of the Andes with an integrated view of the entire Andes range. This review paper is presented in two parts. Part I is dedicated to summarize the scientific knowledge about the main climatic features of the Andes, with emphasis on mean large-scale atmospheric circulation, the Andes-Amazon hydroclimate interconnections and the most distinctive diurnal and annual cycles of precipitation. Part II, which is also included in the research topic “Connecting Mountain Hydroclimate Through the American Cordilleras,” focuses on the hydroclimate variability of the Andes at the sub-continental scale, including the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. © Copyright © 2020 Espinoza, Garreaud, Poveda, Arias, Molina-Carpio, Masiokas, Viale and Scaff. | Frontiers in Earth Science | 22966463 | https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2020.00064/full | art64 | 8 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | andes; atmospheric pressure; biodiversity; earth (planet); atmospheric circulation; climatic features; continental scale; research topics; scientific knowledge; scientific literature; southern oscillation; water security; annual variation; atmospheric circulation; climate change; diurnal variation; el nino-southern oscillation; hydrological cycle; hydrometeorology; rainfall; climate change, andes (south america); atmospheric circulation; hydrological cycle; rainfall variability; sou nailing | Université Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, G-INP, IGE (UMR 5001), Grenoble, France; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geosciences and Environment, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Medellín, Colombia; Grupo de Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental (GIGA), Escuela Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia; Instituto de Hidráulica e Hidrología (IHH), Universidad Mayor de San Andrés, La Paz, Bolivia; Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA) – Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Mendoza, Argentina; Global Water Futures, Canada First Research Excellence Fund, (CFREF), University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada |
| Transforming knowledge systems for life on Earth: Visions of future systems and how to get there | Fazey I.; Schäpke N.; Caniglia G.; Hodgson A.; Kendrick I.; Lyon C.; Page G.; Patterson J.; Riedy C.; Strasser T.; Verveen S.; Adams D.; Goldstein B.; Klaes M.; Leicester G.; Linyard A.; McCurdy A.; Ryan P.; Sharpe B.; Silvestri G.; Abdurrahim A.Y.; Abson D.; Adetunji O.S.; Aldunce P.; Alvarez-Pereira C.; Amparo J.M.; Amundsen H.; Anderson L.; Andersson L.; Asquith M.; Augenstein K.; Barrie J.; Bent D.; Bentz J.; Bergsten A.; Berzonsky C.; Bina O.; Blackstock K.; Boehnert J.; Bradbury H.; Brand ... | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101724 | Formalised knowledge systems, including universities and research institutes, are important for contemporary societies. They are, however, also arguably failing humanity when their impact is measured against the level of progress being made in stimulating the societal changes needed to address challenges like climate change. In this research we used a novel futures-oriented and participatory approach that asked what future envisioned knowledge systems might need to look like and how we might get there. Findings suggest that envisioned future systems will need to be much more collaborative, open, diverse, egalitarian, and able to work with values and systemic issues. They will also need to go beyond producing knowledge about our world to generating wisdom about how to act within it. To get to envisioned systems we will need to rapidly scale methodological innovations, connect innovators, and creatively accelerate learning about working with intractable challenges. We will also need to create new funding schemes, a global knowledge commons, and challenge deeply held assumptions. To genuinely be a creative force in supporting longevity of human and non-human life on our planet, the shift in knowledge systems will probably need to be at the scale of the enlightenment and speed of the scientific and technological revolution accompanying the second World War. This will require bold and strategic action from governments, scientists, civic society and sustained transformational intent. © 2020 The Author(s) | Energy Research and Social Science | 22146296 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214629620302991 | art101724 | 70 | Thomson Reuters SSCI | nan, climate and energy research; epistemology; knowledge; social-technical transitions; sustainability science; transformation | Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, Wentworth Way, Heslington, YO105NG, York, United Kingdom; Chalmers University of Technology, Division Physical Resource Theory, Chalmersplatsen 4, Göteborg, 412 96, Sweden; Konrad Lorenz Institute for Evolution and Cognition Research and Leuphana University Lueneburg, Konrad Lorenz Institute, Martinstraße 12, Klosterneuburg, 3400, Austria; H3Uni, 18 North Street, Glenrothes, KY7 5NA, Netherlands; Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; SustainaMetrix, LLC, 502 Deering Avenue, Portland, 04103, ME, United States; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, CB Utrecht, 3584, Netherlands; Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, 2007, NSW, Australia; Maastricht Sustainability Institute, Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, MD Maastricht, 6200, Netherlands; H3Uni, Geertebolwerk 30, XA Utrecht, 3511, Netherlands; H3Uni, 18 North Street, Glenrothes, Fife KY7 5NA, Scotland, United Kingdom; University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Vinson Centre, University of Buckingham, Hunter St, Buckingham, MK18 1EG, United Kingdom; International Futures Forum, The Boathouse, Silversands, Hawkcraig Road, Aberdour, Fife, KY3 0TZ, United Kingdom; Australian Resilience Centre, Australia; DRIFT (Dutch Research Institute for Transitio... |
| The Central Chile Mega Drought (2010–2018): A climate dynamics perspective | Garreaud R.D.; Boisier J.P.; Rondanelli R.; Montecinos A.; Sepúlveda H.H.; Veloso-Aguila D. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1002/joc.6219 | Central Chile, home to more than 10 million inhabitants, has experienced an uninterrupted sequence of dry years since 2010 with mean rainfall deficits of 20–40%. The so-called Mega Drought (MD) is the longest event on record and with few analogues in the last millennia. It encompasses a broad area, with detrimental effects on water availability, vegetation and forest fires that have scaled into social and economical impacts. Observations and reanalysis data reveal that the exceptional length of the MD results from the prevalence of a circulation dipole-hindering the passage of extratropical storms over central Chile—characterized by deep tropospheric anticyclonic anomalies over the subtropical Pacific and cyclonic anomalies over the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Sea. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major modulator of such dipole, but the MD has occurred mostly under ENSO-neutral conditions, except for the winters of 2010 (La Niña) and 2015 (strong El Niño). Climate model simulations driven both with historical forcing (natural and anthropogenic) and observed global SST replicate the south Pacific dipole and capture part of the rainfall anomalies. Idealized numerical experiments suggest that most of the atmospheric anomalies emanate from the subtropical southwest Pacific, a region that has experienced a marked surface warming over the last decade. Such warming may excite atmospheric Rossby waves whose propagation intensifies the circulation pattern leading to dry conditions in central Chile. On the other hand, anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases concentration increase and stratospheric ozone depletion) and the associated positive trend of the Southern Annular Mode also contribute to the strength of the south Pacific dipole and hence to the intensity and longevity of the MD. Given the concomitance of the seemingly natural (ocean sourced) and anthropogenic forcing, we anticipate only a partial recovery of central Chile precipitation in the decades to come. © 2019 Royal Meteorological Society | International Journal of Climatology | 08998418 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6219 | 421-439 | 40 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | amundsen sea; bellingshausen sea; chile; pacific ocean; pacific ocean (south); pacific ocean (subtropical); southern ocean; atmospheric pressure; climate change; deforestation; drought; greenhouse gases; mechanical waves; oceanography; ozone layer; rain; tropics; anthropogenic forcing; anticyclonic anomalies; chile; climate model simulations; enso; numerical experiments; south america; stratospheric ozone depletion; antarctic oscillation; anthropogenic effect; atmospheric dynamics; climate change; climate forcing; drought; el nino-southern oscillation; pacific decadal oscillation; precipitation (climatology); rossby wave; climate models, chile; climate change; drought; enso; pdo; sam; south america | Geophysics Department, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro de Recursos Hídricos para la Agricultura y Minería, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile |
| Fire history in Andean Araucaria-Nothofagus forests: Coupled influences of past human land-use and climate on fire regimes in north-west Patagonia | González M.E.; Muñoz A.A.; González-Reyes Á.; Christie D.A.; Sibold J. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1071/WF19174 | Historical fire regimes are critical for understanding the potential effects of changing climate and human land-use on forest landscapes. Fire is a major disturbance process affecting the Andean Araucaria forest landscape in north-west Patagonia. The main goals of this study were to reconstruct the fire history of the Andean Araucaria-Nothofagus forests and to evaluate the coupled influences of climate and humans on fire regimes. Reconstructions of past fires indicated that the Araucaria forest landscape has been shaped by widespread, stand-replacing fires favoured by regional interannual climate variability related to major tropical and extratropical climate drivers in the southern hemisphere. Summer precipitation and streamflow reconstructions tended to be below average during fire years. Fire events were significantly related to positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode and to warm and dry summers following El Niño events. Although Euro-Chilean settlement (1883-1960) resulted in widespread burning, cattle ranching by Pehuenche Native Americans during the 18th and 19th centuries also appears to have changed the fire regime. In the context of climate change, two recent widespread wildfires (2002 and 2015) affecting Araucaria forests appear to be novel and an early indication of a climate change driven shift in fire regimes in north-west Patagonia. © 2020 Journal Compilation. | International Journal of Wildland Fire | 10498001 | http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF19174 | 649-660 | 29 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, climate variability; dendroecology; el niño southern oscillation; native americans; southern annular mode; tree-rings | Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR), Santiago, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Estudios Ambientales, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Hémera Centro de Observación de la Tierra, Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, Huechuraba, Santiago, Chile; Department of Anthropology and Geography, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 80523, CO, United States |
| Thermo-and physicochemical properties of native and exotic forest species of Valparaíso, Chile, as essential information for fire risk management | Guerrero F.; Toledo M.; Ripoll N.; Espinoza L.; Morales R.; Muñoz A.; Taborga L.; Carrasco Y. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1071/WF19086 | Wildfires in the Valparaíso region (Chile) account for one of the main threats to local biodiversity, ecosystem services and infrastructure. This study focused on producing an initial record of thermo-and physicochemical properties of local forest species. For this purpose, leaf samples of species found in the Peñuelas Lake National Reserve, namely Pinus radiata, Eucalyptus globulus, Acacia dealbata, Quillaja saponaria and Cryptocarya alba, were collected and analysed. Higher and lower heating value, flash point, density and moisture content tests were performed for each sample. Overall results showed that lower heating values measured for both native and exotic species could indicate a high energy release source in wildfires. However, differences in the flash point between species indicated that C. alba and E. globulus had a lower ignition resistance than other species tested, possibly due to a lower flash point. In contrast, Q. saponaria and A. dealbata had the highest flash point for native and exotic species respectively. Finally, all presented data and procedures were aimed at establishing a foundation for a national database of critical forest species properties to be used in wildfire simulation tools. This database will enhance forest fire management effectiveness in Chile. © 2020 IAWF. | International Journal of Wildland Fire | 10498001 | http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=WF19086 | 675-685 | 29 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, calorific value; cryptocarya alba; flash point; forest fires; forest fuel; moisture content; quillaja saponaria; wildfires | Department of Mechanical Engineering, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Avenida España 1680, Valparaíso, 2340000, Chile; Laboratory of Dendrochronology and Environmental Studies, Institute of Geography, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2241, Valparaíso, 2340000, Chile; Natural Products Laboratory, Department of Chemistry, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Avenida España 1680, Valparaíso, 2340000, Chile; Forestry Department, Faculty of Forest and Agricultural Sciences, Universidad de Pinar Del Río, Calle Martí 300, Pinar del Río, CP 20100, Cuba |
| Two Centuries of Hydroclimatic Variability Reconstructed From Tree-Ring Records Over the Amazonian Andes of Peru | Humanes-Fuente V.; Ferrero M.E.; Muñoz A.A.; González-Reyes Á.; Requena-Rojas E.J.; Barichivich J.; Inga J.G.; Layme-Huaman E.T. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1029/2020JD032565 | Almost half of the tributaries of the Amazon River originate in the tropical Andes and support large populations in mountain regions and downstream areas. However, it is difficult to assess hydroclimatic conditions or to evaluate future scenarios due to the scarcity of long, high-quality instrumental records. Data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) provide a complete record since 1979 and offer a good representation of rainfall over the tropical Andes. Longer records are needed to improve our understanding of rainfall variability and summer monsoon behavior at various scales. We developed the first annually resolved precipitation reconstruction for the tropical Andes in Peru, based on tree-ring chronologies of Cedrela and Juglans species. The annual (November–October) reconstruction extends the short instrumental records back to 1817, explaining 68% of the total variance of precipitation over the 1979–2007 calibration period. The reconstruction reveals the well-documented influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Amazon Rainfall at interannual scales (~19% of total variance) and significant multidecadal variability with alternating periods of about 40 years (~13% of rainfall variability) related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Both oscillatory modes can explain dry and humid periods observed within the reconstruction and are likely associated with the negative trends of rainfall in the short instrumental records and the increased drought recurrence in recent decades. Our results show that montane tropical tree rings can be used to reconstruct precipitation with exceptionally high fidelity, characterize the interannual to multidecadal variability, and identify remote forcings in the hydroclimate over the Andean Amazon Basin of Peru. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres | 2169897X | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD032565 | arte2020JD032565 | 125 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | amazonian montane forests; precipitation reconstruction; sams; south america; tree rings; tropical andes, amazonia; andes; peru; cedrela; juglans; climate variation; decadal variation; el nino-southern oscillation; humid environment; paleoclimate; rainfall; reconstruction; tree ring | Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Estudios Ambientales, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaiso, Chile; Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales, CONICET, Mendoza, Argentina; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR), Santiago, Chile; Hémera Centro de Observación de la Tierra, Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, Santiago, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental, Huancayo, Peru; Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CNRS/CEA/UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agraria, Lima, Peru |
| Future changes in the free tropospheric freezing level and rain–snow limit: The case of central Chile | Mardones P.; Garreaud R.D. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.3390/atmos11111259 | The freezing level in the free troposphere often intercepts the terrain of the world’s major mountain ranges, creating a rain–snow limit. In this work, we use the free tropospheric height of the 0◦C isotherm (H0) as a proxy of both levels and study its distribution along the western slope of the subtropical Andes (30◦–38◦ S) in present climate and during the rest of the 21st century. This portion of the Andes corresponds to central Chile, a highly populated region where warm winter storms have produced devastating landslides and widespread flooding in the recent past. Our analysis is based on the frequency distribution of H0 derived from radiosonde and surface observations, atmospheric reanalysis and climate simulations. The future projections primarily employ a scenario of heavy greenhouse gasses emissions (RCP8.5), but we also examine the more benign RCP4.5 scenario. The current H0 distribution along the central Chile coast shows a gradual decrease southward, with mean heights close to 2600 m ASL (above sea level) at 30◦C S to 2000 m ASL at 38◦ S for days with precipitation, about 800 m lower than during dry days. The mean value under wet conditions toward the end of the century (under RCP8.5) is close to, or higher than, the upper quartile of the H0 distribution in the current climate. More worrisome, H0 values that currently occur only 5% of the time will be exceeded in about a quarter of the rainy days by the end of the century. Under RCP8.5, even moderate daily precipitation can increase river flow to levels that are considered hazardous for central Chile. © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. | Atmosphere | 20734433 | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/11/1259 | art1259, 1-16 | 11 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | andes; chile; freezing; rain; sea level; snow; storms; atmospheric reanalysis; climate simulation; daily precipitations; free troposphere; frequency distributions; future projections; mountain ranges; surface observation; climate change; cmip; flooding; freezing; future prospect; troposphere; troposphere, central chile; cfsr; climate change; cmip5; flooding; freezing level | Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, 8370415, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, 8370415, Chile; Department of Oceanography, University of Concepción, Concepción, 4030000, Chile |
| Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century | Morales M.S.; Cook E.R.; Barichivich J.; Christie D.A.; Villalba R.; LeQuesne C.; Srur A.M.; Eugenia Ferrero M.; González-Reyes Á.; Couvreux F.; Matskovsky V.; Aravena J.C.; Lara A.; Mundo I.A.; Rojas F.; Prieto M.R.; Smerdon J.E.; Bianchi L.O.; Masiokas M.H.; Urrutia-Jalabert R.; Rodriguez-Catón M.; Muñoz A.A.; Rojas-Badilla M.; Alvarez C.; Lopez L.; Luckman B.H.; Lister D.; Harris I.; Jones P.D.; Park Williams A.; Velazquez G.; Aliste D.; Aguilera-Betti I.; Marcotti E.; Flores F.; Muñoz T.; Cu... | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1073/pnas.2002411117 | South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia-New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/ severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America | 00278424 | http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.2002411117 | 16816-16823 | 117 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | drought atlas; extreme hydroclimate events; palaeoclimate reconstruction; south america hydroclimate; southern hemisphere climate modes, statistical; rain; south america; trees; rain; atmospheric pressure; carbon footprint; controlled study; drought; environmental impact; experience; greenhouse effect; hydroclimate; moisture; nonhuman; priority journal; review; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; soil moisture; south america; spatiotemporal analysis; tree; tree ring; climate; geographic mapping; greenhouse effect; growth, climate; droughts; geographic mapping; global warming; models, development and aging; statistical model; tree | Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Cs. Ambientales, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Mendoza, 5500, Argentina; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología, Universidad Continental, Huancayo, 12003, Peru; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, 10964-1000, NY, United States; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, CNRS/Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Gif sur Yvette, 91191, France; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5110566, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, 8370415, Chile; Hémera Centro de Observación de la Tierra, Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, Huechuraba, Santiago, 8580745, Chile; Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Université de Toulouse Météo-France CNRS, Toulouse, 31057, France; Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119017, Russian Federation; Centro de Investigación Gaia Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, 620-0000, Chile; Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza, M5502JMA, Argentina; Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural, Universidad Nacional de Río Negro, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones C... |
| Timing and structure of vegetation, fire, and climate changes on the Pacific slope of northwestern Patagonia since the last glacial termination | Moreno P.I. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106328 | By virtue of its location in the southern mid-latitudes, northwestern Patagonia (40°-44°S) offers the opportunity to unravel the mechanisms involved in the initiation and propagation of paleoclimate signals of hemispheric and global significance. Of particular importance is deciphering the evolution of the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) considering their influence at continental, zonal, hemispheric, and global scale. Here I present a multi-decadal record from Lago Proschle, a small closed-basin lake located on the Pacific slope of northwestern Patagonia, to examine the timing and structure of vegetation, fire, and climate change along a continuum since the onset of the Last Glacial Termination (T1). The record shows rapid glacier recession during T1, reaching the western Andean foothills in ∼400 years or less. Nothofagus-dominated forests established between ∼17.4–17 ka, followed by closed-canopy North Patagonian Rain Forests (NPRF) with shade-tolerant thermophilous trees between ∼16.3–15.4 ka. These changes suggest an abrupt warming trend and an increase in precipitation at ∼16.3 ka, associated with a northward shift of the SWW. Subsequent increases in cold-tolerant hygrophilous trees between ∼15.4–12.8 ka imply a shift to cold, more humid conditions during the Antarctic Cold Reversal, suggesting stronger SWW influence. This was followed by stand-replacing fires brought by a sudden decline in summer precipitation at ∼12.8 ka, associated with a millennial-scale southward shift of the SWW which was contemporaneous with the onset of the Younger Dryas. Dominance of thermophilous, summer-drought tolerant Valdivian rainforest trees and high fire activity ensued between ∼10.3–7.8 ka, suggesting peak warmth and overall decline in annual precipitation associated with weakening of the SWW during the early Holocene. A multi-millennial cooling and wetting trend started at ∼7.8 ka, brought by stronger SWW influence, followed by recurrent, centennial-scale variations in temperature and precipitation starting at ∼6.4 ka. Deforestation, fire, and spread of non-native herbs by Chilean/European settlers began during the late 18th century. Abrupt vegetation changes in the Lago Proschle record were driven by rapid climate changes over the last 17,400 years amplified, in some instances, by fire disturbance. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd | Quaternary Science Reviews | 02773791 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379120302900 | art106328 | 238 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, andes; pacific ocean; patagonia; nothofagus; deforestation; fires; glacial geology; timing circuits; vegetation; annual precipitation; antarctic cold reversals; initiation and propagation; last glacial terminations; rapid climate change; southern westerly winds; stand-replacing fires; summer precipitation; climate change; holocene; last glacial maximum; midlatitude environment; paleoclimate; precipitation (climatology); rainforest; slope; temperature tolerance; vegetation structure; younger dryas; climate change | Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, Department of Ecological Sciences, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Water crisis in petorca basin, Chile: The combined effects of a mega-drought and water management | Muñoz A.A.; Klock-Barría K.; Alvarez-Garreton C.; Aguilera-Betti I.; González-Reyes A.; Lastra J.A.; Chávez R.O.; Barría P.; Christie D.; Rojas-Badilla M.; Lequesne C. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.3390/w12030648 | Since 2010, Chile has experienced one of the most severe droughts over the last century, the so-called mega-drought (MD). The MD conditions, combined with intensive agricultural activities and the current water management system, have led to water scarcity problems in Mediterranean and Semi-arid regions of Chile. An emblematic case is the Petorca basin, where a water crisis is undergone. To characterize this crisis, we analyzed water provision by using tree-ring records, remote sensing, instrumental data, and allocated water rights within the basin. Results indicate that the MD is the most severe dry period over the last 700-years of streamflow reconstruction. During the MD, streamflow and water bodies of the upper parts of the basin have been less affected than mid and low areas of this valley, where consumptive withdrawals reach up to 18% of the mean annual precipitation. This extracted volume is similar to the MD mean annual precipitation deficits. The impacts of the current drought, along with the drier climate projections for Central Chile, emphasize the urgency for faster policy changes related to water provision. Climate change adaptation plans and policies should enhance the current monitoring network and the public control of water use to secure the water access for inhabitants and productive activities. © 2020 by the authors. | Water (Switzerland) | 20734441 | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/3/648 | art648 | 12 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; agricultural robots; drought; forestry; remote sensing; stream flow; trees (mathematics); water management; agricultural activities; climate change adaptation; climate projection; current monitoring; instrumental data; mean annual precipitation; water management systems; water scarcity; drought; reconstruction; streamflow; water management; water use; climate change, climate change; conflicts for water; drought; streamflow reconstruction; water access; water management; water scarcity | Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Estudios Ambientales, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2241, Valparaíso, 2390302, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, 8340589, Chile; Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5090000, Chile; Centro Transdisciplinario de Estudios Ambientales y Desarrollo Humano Sostenible (CEAM), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5090000, Chile; Hémera Centro de Observación de la Tierra, Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal, Universidad Mayor, Santiago, 8340589, Chile; Laboratorio de Geo-Información y Percepción Remota, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, 2390302, Chile; Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservación de la Naturaleza, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 8340589, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5090000, Chile |
| Raco wind at the exit of the Maipo canyon in central Chile: Climatology, special observations, and possible mechanisms | Muñoz R.C.; Armi L.; Rutllant J.A.; Falvey M.; Whiteman C.D.; Garreaud R.; Arriagada A.; Flores F.; Donoso N. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0188.1 | Raco is the local name given to a strong (gusts up to 17 m s-1), warm, and dry down-valley wind observed at the exit of the Maipo River Canyon in central Chile. Its climatology is documented based on eight years of surface measurements near the canyon exit together with a more complete characterization of its structure during an intensive observational period (IOP) carried out in July 2018. Raco winds occur in the cold season under well-defined synoptic conditions, beginning abruptly at any time during the night, reaching maximum hourly averages around 10 m s-1, and terminating around noon with the onset of afternoon westerly up-valley winds. About 25% of the days in May–August have more than six raco hours between 0100 and 1200 LT, and raco episodes last typically 1–2 days. The sudden appearance of raco winds at the surface can be accompanied by conspicuous warming (up to 10°C) and drying (up to 3 g kg-1). Raco winds are associated with a strong along-canyon pressure gradient, a regional pressure fall, and clear skies. During the IOP, radiosondes launched from both extremes of the canyon exit corridor showed a nocturnal easterly jet at 700 m AGL that occasionally descended rapidly to the surface, producing the raco. Transects along the canyon performed with a mobile ceilometer revealed a sharp frontlike feature between the cold pool over the Santiago Valley and the raco-affected conditions in the Maipo Canyon. Possible factors producing the easterly jet aloft and its occasional descent toward the surface are discussed, and a gap-wind mechanism is postulated to be at work. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicense. | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology | 15588424 | http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0188.1 | 725-749 | 59 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, chile; maipo river; climatology; landforms; meteorological instruments; surface measurement; central chile; clear sky; cold season; intensive observational periods; possible mechanisms; synoptic conditions; up-valley winds; valley winds; canyon; climatology; gust; jet stream; pressure gradient; wind | Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States; Center for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones, La Serena, Chile; Meteodata Ltd, Santiago, Chile; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, United States; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Estudios Científicos, Valdivia, Chile |
| The deglaciation of the Americas during the Last Glacial Termination | Palacios D.; Stokes C.R.; Phillips F.M.; Clague J.J.; Alcalá-Reygosa J.; Andrés N.; Angel I.; Blard P.-H.; Briner J.P.; Hall B.L.; Dahms D.; Hein A.S.; Jomelli V.; Mark B.G.; Martini M.A.; Moreno P.; Riedel J.; Sagredo E.; Stansell N.D.; Vázquez-Selem L.; Vuille M.; Ward D.J. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103113 | This paper reviews current understanding of deglaciation in North, Central and South America from the Last Glacial Maximum to the beginning of the Holocene. Together with paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic data, we compare and contrast the pace of deglaciation and the response of glaciers to major climate events. During the Global Last Glacial Maximum (GLGM, 26.5-19 ka), average temperatures decreased 4° to 8°C in the Americas, but precipitation varied strongly throughout this large region. Many glaciers in North and Central America achieved their maximum extent during the GLGM, whereas others advanced even farther during the subsequent Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS-1). Glaciers in the Andes also expanded during the GLGM, but that advance was not the largest, except on Tierra del Fuego. HS-1 (17.5-14.6 ka) was a time of general glacier thickening and advance throughout most of North and Central America, and in the tropical Andes; however, glaciers in the temperate and subpolar Andes thinned and retreated during this period. During the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (B-A, 14.6-12.9 ka), glaciers retreated throughout North and Central America and, in some cases, completely disappeared. Many glaciers advanced during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR, 14.6-12.9 ka) in the tropical Andes and Patagonia. There were small advances of glaciers in North America, Central America and in northern South America (Venezuela) during the Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka), but glaciers in central and southern South America retreated during this period, except on the Altiplano where advances were driven by an increase in precipitation. Taken together, we suggest that there was a climate compensation effect, or ‘seesaw’, between the hemispheres, which affected not only marine currents and atmospheric circulation, but also the behavior of glaciers. This seesaw is consistent with the opposing behavior of many glaciers in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. © 2020 Elsevier B.V. | Earth-Science Reviews | 00128252 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S001282521930652X | art103113 | 203 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | central america; north america; south america; chronology; deglaciation; glacier; last glacial maximum; paleoceanography; paleoclimate; paleotemperature; precipitation (climatology), americas; deglaciation; glacial chronology; late pleistocene; termination-i | Department of Geography, Complutense University, Madrid, 28040, Spain; Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, United Kingdom; Earth & Environmental Science Department, New Mexico Institute of Mining & Technology, 801 Leroy Place, Socorro, 87801, NM, United States; Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Dr. Burnaby, Brtish Columbia, V5A 1S6, Canada; Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad de México, 04510, Mexico; Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Simón Bolívar, 89000, Caracas, 1081-A, Venezuela; Centre de Recherches Pétrographiques et Géochimiques (CRPG), CNRS - Université de Lorraine, UMR 7358, 15 rue Notre Dame des Pauvres, Vandoeuvre-lès-Nancy, 54500, France; Laboratoire de Glaciologie, DGES-IGEOS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles, 1050, Belgium; Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, 14260, NY, United States; Department of Earth Sciences and the Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, 04469, ME, United States; Department of Geography, University of Northern Iowa, Cedar Falls, 50614-0406, IA, United States; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, United Kingdom; Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CNRS Laboratoire de Géographie Physique, Meudon, 92195, France; Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, Ohio State University, 108 Scott Hall 1090 Carmack Rd, Colum... |
| High Impact Weather Events in the Andes | Poveda G.; Espinoza J.C.; Zuluaga M.D.; Solman S.A.; Garreaud R.; van Oevelen P.J. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.3389/feart.2020.00162 | Owing to the extraordinary latitudinal extent, a strong orographic variability with very high mountain tops, and the presence of deep valleys and steep slopes, the Andes and the population of the region are highly prone and vulnerable to the impacts of a large suite of extreme weather events. Here we provide a review of the most salient events in terms of losses of human and animal lives, economic and monetary losses in costs and damages, and social disruption, namely: (1) extreme precipitation events and related processes (Mesoscale Convective Systems, lightning), (2) cold spells, frosts, and high winds, (3) the impacts of ENSO on extreme hydro-meteorological events, (4) floods, (5) landslides, mudslides, avalanches, and (6) droughts, heat waves and fires. For our purposes, we focus this review on three distinctive regions along the Andes: Northern tropical (north of 8°S), Southern tropical (8°S-27°S) and Extratropical Andes (south of 27°S). Research gaps are also identified and discussed at the end of this review. It is very likely that climate change will increase the vulnerability of the millions of inhabitants of the Andes, impacting their livelihoods and the sustainable development of the region into the twenty first century amidst urbanization, deforestation, air, soil and water pollution, and land use changes. © Copyright © 2020 Poveda, Espinoza, Zuluaga, Solman, Garreaud and van Oevelen. | Frontiers in Earth Science | 22966463 | https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2020.00162/full | art162 | 8 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | andes; droughts; enso; extreme weather; fires; floods; landslides; storms, andes; deforestation; economics; extreme weather; land use; precipitation (meteorology); storms; tropics; water pollution; weather information services; extratropical; extreme precipitation events; extreme weather events; high mountains; land-use change; mesoscale convective system; research gaps; weather events; drought resistance; el nino-southern oscillation; extreme event; flooding; landslide; climate change | Department of Geosciences and Environment, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Colombia; Université Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, G-INP, IGE (UMR 5001), Grenoble, France; Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Buenos Aires, Argentina; CONICET - Universidad de Buenos Aires, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Buenos Aires, Argentina; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; International GEWEX Project Office, Washington, DC, United States |
| Local perceptions of fires risk and policy implications in the hills of Valparaiso, Chile | Sapiains R.; Ugarte A.M.; Aldunce P.; Marchant G.; Romero J.A.; González M.E.; Inostroza-Lazo V. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.3390/su12104298 | Climate change is increasing the occurrence of natural disasters worldwide, and more frequent and intense fires represent one of the most destructive expressions of this trend. Chile is highly vulnerable to climate change, and fires are a recurrent phenomenon affecting many people each year. To reduce fire risk, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests reducing both exposure and vulnerability through multiple initiatives, which demand increased community engagement. In such a context, this study explores local perceptions of fire in a sample of inhabitants in a wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Valparaiso, a city that is affected by numerous fires each year. The ultimate goal was to identify psychological and community factors that should be taken into consideration to develop prevention plans and safer environments for people living in a context of poverty and social inequity. Using a qualitative approach, 28 interviews were conducted and analyzed following grounded theory principles. Results identified multiple causes, impacts, and characteristics of the problem perceived by people who permanently cohabit with fire risk, showing that for many of them, fire risk is not about the probability of occurrence of a disaster, but a question about when and how the next fire will happen. However, in such a complex scenario, psychological, community, and structural barriers deter people from implementing more effective actions. Conversely, in emergency situations, such barriers are irrelevant and cooperative actions prevail, suggesting the existence of resources and capacities within the community that could lessen exposure and vulnerability if activated on a day-to-day basis. Overall, reducing fire risk cannot be achieved by local communities alone nor without their support. To build, maintain, and consolidate fire prevention actions, it is critical to activate community strengths and cooperation and engage the resources and management capacity of local governments. © 2020 by the authors. | Sustainability (Switzerland) | 20711050 | https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/10/4298 | art4298 | 12 | Thomson Reuters SCIE, SSCI | chile; climate change; disasters risk reduction; fire risk perceptions; fires prevention, valparaiso; fire management; intergovernmental panel on climate change; local government; local planning; natural disaster; policy implementation; probability; qualitative analysis; risk assessment; vulnerability | Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, 8370449, Chile; Department of Psychology, Faculty of Social Sciences, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 7800284, Chile; Department of Environmental Sciences and Renewable Natural Resources, Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 8820808, Chile; REDLAMA (Latinoamerican Educational Network for the Environment), Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, 8370449, Chile; Department of Sociology, Faculty of Social Sciences, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 7800284, Chile; Faculty of Forestry Sciences and Natural Resources, Conservation, Biodiversity and Territory Institute, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5090000, Chile |
| Recent changes in the precipitation-driving processes over the southern tropical Andes/western Amazon | Segura H.; Espinoza J.C.; Junquas C.; Lebel T.; Vuille M.; Garreaud R. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1007/s00382-020-05132-6 | Analyzing December–February (DJF) precipitation in the southern tropical Andes—STA (12∘S–20∘S; > 3000 m.a.s.l) allows revisiting regional atmospheric circulation features accounting for its interannual variability over the past 35 years (1982–2018). In a region where in-situ rainfall stations are sparse, the CHIRPS precipitation product is used to identify the first mode of interannual DJF precipitation variability (PC1-Andes). A network of 98 rain-gauge stations further allows verifying that PC1-Andes properly represents the spatio-temporal rainfall distribution over the region; in particular a significant increase in DJF precipitation over the period of study is evident in both in-situ data and PC1-Andes. Using the ERA-Interim data set, we found that aside from the well-known relationship between precipitation and upper-level easterlies over the STA, PC1-Andes is also associated with upward motion over the western Amazon (WA), a link that has not been reported before. The ascent over the WA is a component of the meridional circulation between the tropical North Atlantic and western tropical South America—WTSA (80∘W–60∘W; 35∘S–10∘N). Indeed, the precipitation increase over the last 2 decades is concomitant with the strengthening of this meridional circulation. An intensified upward motion over the WA has moistened the mid-troposphere over WTSA, and as a consequence, a decreased atmospheric stability between the mid- and the upper troposphere is observed over this region, including the STA. We further show that, over the last 15 years or so, the year-to-year variability of STA precipitation (periodicity < 8 years) has been significantly associated with upward motion over the WA, while upper-level easterlies are no longer significantly correlated with precipitation. These observations suggests that the STA have experienced a transition from a dry to a wet state in association with a change in the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation. In the former dominant state, zonal advection of momentum and moisture from the central Amazon, associated with upper-level easterlies, is necessary to develop convection over the STA. Since the beginning of the 21st century, DJF precipitation over the STA seems to respond directly and primarily to upward motion over the WA. Beyond improving our understanding of the factors influencing STA precipitation nowadays, these results point to the need of exploring their possible implications for the long-term evolution of precipitation in a context of global warming. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. | Climate Dynamics | 09307575 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05132-6 | 2613-2631 | 54 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | altiplano; amazonia; andes; annual variation; atmospheric circulation; atmospheric convection; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; troposphere, altiplano precipitation; amazon convection; amazon-andes connectivity; south america atmospheric circulation | Univ. Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France; Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY, United States; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2, FONDAP 15110009), Santiago, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Tree-growth at the rear edge of a Nothofagus pumilio Andean forest from Northern Patagonia show different patterns and a decline in the common signal during the last century | Serrano-León H.; Christie D.A. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118426 | Nothofagus pumilio is the dominant tree species at high elevations in the southern Andes between 35° and 55° S. Despite the number of tree-growth studies on this tree species, there is scarce information about the growth patterns and its relation with climatic variability at its lower elevation margin of distribution in the windward side of the Andes. In this study we focus on the altitudinal rear edge of a N. pumilio forest growing on the Pacific side of the northern Patagonian Andes to determine the main temporal patterns of tree radial growth, identify its relations with regional and large-scale climate and to assess the temporal variation of common signal in tree growth at centennial time-scales. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) between trees for their common period 1850–2010 indicates the existence of more than one pattern of tree growth within this lower altitudinal margin, which exhibit contrasting relations with climate. The tree ring chronology and the PC1 amplitude of tree growth shows negative correlation with maximum temperature during spring-summer while the PC2 shows the contrary. Maps and correlation functions indicate that the PC1 and PC2 patterns of N. pumilio growth are significantly related with high latitude climate variability induced by the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) during spring-summer in an opposite manner, with the PC1 (PC2) negatively (positively) correlated with the poleward displacement of the storm tracks driven by the mid- and high-latitude dipole pressure in the Southern Hemisphere. The running PCA between the standardized tree ring-width series shows a decreasing trend in the percentage of variance explained by the first mode of tree growth, indicating a centennial scale loss in the common signal of growth within the population, especially since mid-20th century when the behavior of the AAO was unprecedented within the context of the last millennium. Given that the future climatic scenario for northern Patagonia as predicted by models would led to more arid conditions forced by the positive trend of the AAO, we expect that the main pattern of N. pumilio growth at the rear edge of Choshuenco volcano will be negatively affected. Despite the present knowledge about N. pumilio radial growth in treeline environments, specific research is needed to gain insights about the complexity of the climate-growth relationship at its low elevation margin, in order to evaluate anomalies in tree growth patterns in the habitat where N. pumilio grows and competes with other low elevation species more tolerant to warmer conditions. © 2020 Elsevier B.V. | Forest Ecology and Management | 03781127 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378112720311956 | art118426 | 475 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | andes; patagonia; nothofagus pumilio; population statistics; springs (components); antarctic oscillation; climate variability; climatic variability; correlation function; maximum temperature; negative correlation; southern hemisphere; tree-ring chronologies; antarctic oscillation; complexity; correlation; evergreen tree; principal component analysis; temporal variation; timescale; twentieth century; forestry, lower altitudinal margin; mountain forests; nothofagus pumilio; rear edge; tree-growth patterns | Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile |
| Environmental costs of water transfers | Vargas C.A.; Garreaud R.; Barra R.; Vásquez-Lavin F.; Saldías G.S.; Parra O. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.1038/s41893-020-0526-5 | [No abstract available] | Nature Sustainability | 23989629 | http://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0526-5 | 408-409 | 3 | Thomson Reuters SCIE, SSCI | | Department of Aquatic Systems, Faculty of Environmental Sciences & Environmental Sciences Center EULA Chile, Universidad de Concepcion, Concepcion, Chile; Center for the Study of Multiple-Drivers on Marine Socio-Ecological Systems (MUSELS), Universidad de Concepcion, Concepcion, Chile; Millennium Institute of Oceanography (IMO), Universidad de Concepcion, Concepcion, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile; Water Research Center for Agriculture and Mining, Universidad de Concepcion, Concepcion, Chile; School of Economics and Business, Universidad del Desarrollo, Concepcion, Chile; Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability, Department of Ecology, Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad del Bío-Bío, Concepción, Chile; Centro FONDAP de Investigación en Dinámica de Ecosistemas Marinos de Altas Latitudes (IDEAL), Valdivia, Chile |
| Geo-climatic hazards in the eastern subtropical Andes: Distribution, climate drivers and trends | Vergara I.; M. Moreiras S.; Araneo D.; Garreaud R. | Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.5194/nhess-20-1353-2020 | Detecting and understanding historical changes in the frequency of geo-climatic hazards (G-CHs) is crucial for the quantification of current hazards and project them into the future. Here we focus in the eastern subtropical Andes (32 33_ S), using meteorological data and a century-long inventory of 553 G-CHs triggered by rainfall or snowfall. We first analyse their spatio-temporal distributions and the role of climate variability in the year-to-year changes in the number of days per season with G-CHs. Precipitation is positively correlated with the number of G-CHs across the region and year-round; mean temperature is negatively correlated with snowfall-driven hazards in the western (higher) half of the study region during winter and with rainfall-driven hazards in the eastern zone during summer. The trends of the G-CH frequency since the mid-20th century were calculated, paying attention to their non-systematic monitoring. The G-CH series for the different triggers, zones and seasons were generally stationary. Nonetheless, there is a small positive trend in rainfall-driven G-CHs in the eastern zone during summer, congruent with a rainfall increase there. We also found a decrease in snowfall-driven G-CHs in the western zone from the late 1990s onwards, most likely due to a reduction in winter precipitation rather than to an increase in temperature. © 2020 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved. | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences | 15618633 | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1353/2020/ | 1353-1367 | 20 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, andes; climate conditions; detection method; precipitation intensity; seasonal variation; snow; spatiotemporal analysis; subtropical region; trend analysis | CONICET-IPATEC, Bariloche, 8400, Argentina; CONICET-IANIGLA, Mendoza, 5500, Argentina; Department of Agricultural Sciences, National University of Cuyo, Mendoza, 5502, Argentina; Department of Exact and Natural Sciences, National University of Cuyo, Mendoza, 5502, Argentina; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, 8330015, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, 8320198, Chile |
| Learning from Each Other: An Experience of Capturing Learning for Adaptation to Climate Change | Aldunce P.; Lillo-Ortega G.; Araya-Valenzuela D.; Adler C.; Ugarte A.M. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2020 | 10.18848/1835-7156/CGP/v13i01/75-90 | Local communities are the populations most exposed and the first to respond to the impacts of climate change, and their response capacity depends on several factors. Knowledge acquired about adaptation is one of the most relevant of such determinants. The present study advances an understanding of what people know (or do not know) about climate change adaptation, adaptation measures, and criteria for evaluating adaptation. The applied case study, related to the Chilean Mega Drought, involved a series of workshops carried out to evaluate adaptation practices. Questionnaires, including open questions, applied both before and after the workshop the observation of new learning results from the workshop participation. Results indicate a major knowledge gap in regard to relevant variables for evaluating adaptation practices. New knowledge was gained by the workshop participants, primarily regarding those variables but also related to adaptation practices implemented by other participants. This study provides helpful insights for identifying knowledge gaps and directing efforts to inform adaptation theory and strengthen adaptation practice. © Common Ground Research Networks, Paulina Aldunce, Gloria Lillo-Ortega, Dámare Araya-Valenzuela, Carolina Adler, Ana María Ugarte, All Rights Reserved. | International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses | 18357156 | https://cgscholar.com/bookstore/works/learning-from-each-other | 75-90 | 13 | Not Indexed | nan, adaptation practices; climate change; local knowledge | University of Chile, Center for Climate and Resilience Research, CR2, Chile; Heinrich Böll Foundation Cono Sur, Chile; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany; Mountain Research Initiative, University of Bern, Switzerland; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Chile |
| Informe de devolución Valle del Aconcagua: Percepción y prácticas de adaptación. Segunda Parte: cambio climático, lluvias extremas y aumento de la temperatura (segunda edición) | Aldunce,P.;Sapiains,R.;Fuentes,C.;Marchant,G.;Moreau,A.;Velden,F.;Ugarte,A.M.; | Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2020 | | El cambio climático es uno de los mayores desafíos
que enfrenta la sociedad actual. El Valle de Aconcagua, ubicado en la Región de Valparaíso, no es ajeno
a esta situación y donde se presentan desafíos que
necesitan de un trabajo permanente, comprometido
e informado por parte de todos los actores del territorio, para asegurar el bienestar presente y futuro.
El presente documento resume los resultados del trabajo realizado con distintos actores sociales del Valle
de Aconcagua, entre los años 2015 a 2018, respecto
de lo que significa el cambio climático para ellos, los
impactos que han experimentado, y las estrategias y
prácticas que han desarrollado para enfrentarlo.
Lo aquí presentado contribuye a la reflexión sobre
qué podemos hacer para fortalecer las prácticas de
adaptación y aumentar las capacidades para anticiparse, resistir y recuperarse de los efectos del cambio
climático de manera oportuna y eficaz. | | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Aconcagua_2020.pdf | 1-16 | | Not Indexed | | |
| ARCLIM Anexo: Piloto Riesgo integrado de Asentamientos Huanos. Conurbación Valparaíso - Viña del Mar | Amigo,C.;Alamos,N.;Arrieta,D.;Billi,M.;Contreras,M.;Larragubel,C.;Muñoz,A.;Smith,P.;Urquiza,A.;Vargas,M.;Videla,J. T.;Winckler,P.; | Agua y Extremos; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Ciudades Resilientes | 2020 | | | | | | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Informe a las naciones: Incendios en Chile: causas, impactos y resiliencia. | González,M. E.;Sapiains A.,R.;Gómez-González,S.;Garreaud,R. D.;Miranda,A.;Galleguillos,M.;Jacques-Coper,M.;Pauchard,A.;Hoyos-Santillan,J.;Cordero,L.;Vasquez-Lavin,F.;Lara,A.;Aldunce,P.;Delgado,V.;Arriagada,R.;Ugarte,A. M.;Sepulveda-Jauregui,A.;Farías,L.;Garcia,R.;Rondanelli,R.;Ponce,R.;Vargas,F.;Rojas,M.;Boisier,J. P.;Carrasco,C.;Little,C.;Osses,M.;Zamorano,C.;Días-Hormazábal,I.;Ceballos,A.;Guerra,E.;Moncada,M.;Castillo,I.; | Agua y Extremos; Zonas Costeras; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | 2020 | | Los resultados presentados en este informe son parte del trabajo interdisciplinario que realiza el Centro de Ciencia
del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2.
El (CR)2 es un centro de excelencia financiado por el programa FONDAP de CONICYT (Proyecto 15110009) en el cual
participan cerca de 60 científicos asociados a la Universidad de Chile, la Universidad de Concepción y la Universidad
Austral de Chile.
La versión electrónica de este documento está disponible en el sitio web www.cr2.cl/incendios | | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Informe-CR2-IncendiosforestalesenChile.pdf | 84 | | Not Indexed | | |
| Informe a las naciones: El aire que respiramos: pasado, presente y futuro – Contaminación atmosférica por MP2,5 en el centro y sur de Chile | Huneeus,N.;Urquiza,A.;Gayo,E. M.;Osses,M.;Arriagada,R.;Valdés,M.;Álamos,N.;Amigo,C.;Arrieta,D.;Basoa,K.;Billi,M.;Blanco,G.;Boisier,J. P.;Calvo,R.;Casielles,I.;Castro,M.;Chahúan,J.;Christie,D. A.;Cordero,L.;Correa,V.;Cortés,J.;Fleming,Z.;Gajardo,N.;Gallardo,L.;Gómez,L.;Insunza,X.;Iriarte,P.;Labraña,J.;Lambert,F.;Muñoz,A.;Opazo,M.;ORyan,R.;Osses,A.;Plass,M.;Rivas,M.;Salinas,S.;Santander,S.;Seguel,R.;Smith,P.;Tolvett,S.; | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Ciudades Resilientes | 2020 | | Los resultados presentados en este informe son parte del trabajo interdisciplinario que realiza el Centro de Ciencia
del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2.
El (CR)2 es un centro de excelencia financiado por el programa FONDAP de CONICYT (Proyecto 15110009) en el cual
participan cerca de 60 científicos asociados a la Universidad de Chile, la Universidad de Concepción y la Universidad
Austral de Chile.
La versión electrónica de este documento está disponible en el sitio web www.cr2.cl/incendios | | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Informe_Contaminacion_Espanol_2020.pdf | 102 | | Not Indexed | | |
| Informe Proyecto ARClim: Atlas de Riegos Climáticos para Chile | Pica-Téllez,A.;Garreaud,R.;Meza,F.;Bustos,S.;Falvey,M.;Ibarra,M.;Silva,M. I.;Duarte,K.;Ormazábal,R.;Dittborn,R.; | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2020 | | Este documento, tiene por finalidad describir el proceso de desarrollo de la Plataforma ARClim, principal producto del proyecto “Atlas de Riesgo climático para Chile”, proyecto Apoyado por el Programa Mundial de Evaluación y Gestión de Riesgos para la Adaptación al Cambio Climático (Pérdidas y Daños)” por encargo del Ministerio Federal de Cooperación Económica y Desarrollo (BMZ) a través de la Agencia para la Cooperación Técnica GIZ (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit), con el objetivo de colaborar con el Ministerio de Medio Ambiente del Gobierno de Chile, aportando al fortalecimiento de las capacidades nacionales en el marco de los desafíos del Cambio Climático; generando Mapas de Riesgos de distintos sectores frente al Cambio Climático en el país. Para llevar a cabo este desafío, participaron 96 investigadores y 24 instituciones especializadas en distintas áreas del cambio climático, las que fueron liderados por el Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2 ) y el Centro de Cambio Global UC. | | | https://www.cr2.cl/informe-proyecto-arclim-atlas-de-riesgos-climaticos-para-chile/ | 193 | | Not Indexed | | |
| The glass half-empty: climate change drives lower freshwater input in the coastal system of the Chilean Northern Patagonia | Aguayo R.; León-Muñoz J.; Vargas-Baecheler J.; Montecinos A.; Garreaud R.; Urbina M.; Soto D.; Iriarte J.L. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1007/s10584-019-02495-6 | Oceanographic conditions in coastal Chilean northern Patagonia (41–46°S) are strongly influenced by freshwater inputs. Precipitation and streamflow records have shown a marked decrease in this area during the last decades. Given this hydro-climatic scenario, we evaluated the hydrological sensitivity driven by climate change in the Puelo River (average annual streamflow = 640 m3 s−1), one of the most important sources of freshwater in the fjords and inland seas of Chile’s Northern Patagonia. A lumped hydrological model was developed to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios in the near future (2030–2060) using the delta change method based on 25 General Circulation Models. The model was fed by local hydro-meteorological data and remote sensors, simulating well the magnitude and seasonality of Puelo River streamflow. Considering the Refined Index of Agreement (RIA), the model achieved a high performance in the calibration (RIA = 0.79) and validation stages (RIA = 0.78). Under the RCP 8.5 scenario (multi-model mean), the projections suggest that the annual input of freshwater from the Puelo River to the Reloncaví Fjord would decrease by − 10% (1.6 km3 less freshwater); these decreases would mainly take place in summer (~ − 20%) and autumn (~ − 15%). The recurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events is also projected to increase in the future, with the probability of occurrence of droughts, such as the recent 2016 event with the lowest freshwater input in the last 70 years, doubling with respect to the historical records. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V. | Climatic Change | 01650009 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-019-02495-6 | 417-435 | 155 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | patagonia; puelo river; climate models; digital storage; remote sensing; rivers; stream flow; water; general circulation model; historical records; hydrological modeling; index of agreements; meteorological data; oceanographic conditions; probability of occurrence; streamflow records; climate change; coastal zone; fjord; freshwater input; hydrological modeling; hydrometeorology; satellite sensor; streamflow; climate change, nan | Departamento de Ingeniería Civil, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Química Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro Interdisciplinario para la Investigación Acuícola (INCAR), Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro de Recursos Hídricos para la Agricultura y Minería (CRHIAM), Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2), Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Zoología, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Oceanográficas, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Instituto Milenio de Oceanografía (IMO), Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Instituto de Acuicultura, Centro de Investigación Dinámica de Ecosistemas Marinos de Altas Latitudes (IDEAL), Universidad Austral de Chile, Puerto Montt, Chile; Centro de Investigación Oceanográfica COPAS Sur-Austral, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile |
| Role of synoptic activity on projected changes in upwelling-favourable winds at the ocean’s eastern boundaries | Aguirre C.; Rojas M.; Garreaud R.D.; Rahn D.A. | Agua y Extremos; Zonas Costeras; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 2019 | 10.1038/s41612-019-0101-9 | The climate of the ocean’s eastern boundaries is strongly influenced by subtropical anticyclones, which drive a surface wind stress that promotes coastal upwelling of nutrient-rich subsurface water that supports high primary productivity and an abundance of food resources. Understanding the projected response of upwelling-favourable winds to climate change has broad implications for coastal biogeochemistry, ecology, and fisheries. Here we use a reanalysis, an ensemble of global climate simulations, and an objective algorithm to track anticyclones to investigate the projected changes in upwelling-favourable wind events at the California, Canary, Humboldt, and Benguela coastal upwelling systems. Except for the north Pacific, we find consistent poleward shifts of mean and upper percentile daily winds over the ocean basins. We propose that extratropical, synoptic-scale migratory anticyclones that force intense coastal upwelling events—which become more frequent at higher latitudes and less frequent at lower latitudes in the future—play an important role in the projected changes in upwelling-favourable wind events in these coastal upwelling systems. These changes complement large-scale processes such as the poleward shift of the subtropical ridge (STR) and stationary subtropical highs. Hence, both extratropical and tropical processes need to be considered to fully explain projected changes at the coastal upwelling systems under anthropogenic climate change. © 2019, The Author(s). | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science | 23973722 | http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0101-9 | art44 | 2 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, angola; benguela; california; canada; canary islands; humboldt; saskatchewan; spain; united states; anthropogenic effect; anticyclone; climate change; climate modeling; computer simulation; ensemble forecasting; extratropical environment; marine atmosphere; numerical model; synoptic meteorology; tropical environment; weather forecasting; wind field; wind stress | Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia, CR2, Santiago, Chile; Escuela de Ingeniería Civil Oceánica, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Observación Marino para estudios de Riesgos del ambiente costero, COSTAR, Valparaíso, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geography and Atmospheric Science, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, United States |
| The impacts of native forests and forest plantations on water supply in Chile | Alvarez-Garreton C.; Lara A.; Boisier J.P.; Galleguillos M. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.3390/f10060473 | Over the past 40 years, south-central Chile has experienced important land-use-induced land cover changes, with massive conversion from native forests (NF) to Pinus radiata D.Don and Eucalyptus spp. exotic forest plantations (FP). Several case studies have related this conversion to a reduction in water supply within small catchments (< 100 ha). In this work, we explore the impacts of NF and FP on streamflow by using a large-sample catchment dataset recently developed for Chile. We select 25 large forested catchments (> 20,000 ha) in south-central Chile (35° S-41° S), analyze their land cover and precipitation spatial distributions, and fit a regression model to quantify the influence of NF, FP, grassland (GRA) and shrubland (SHR) partitions on annual runoff. To assess potential effects of land cover changes on water supply, we use the fitted model (R2 = 0.84) in synthetic experiments where NF, GRA and SHR covers within the catchments are replaced by patches of FP.We show that annual runoff consistently decreases with increments of FP, although the magnitude of the change (ranging from 2.2% to 7.2% mean annual runoff decrease for 10,000 ha increment in FP) depends on several factors, including the initial land cover partition within the basin, the replaced land cover class, the area of the catchment, and the type of catchment (drier or humid). Finally, in the context of the mitigation strategies pledged in the Chilean NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions defined after the Paris Agreement), which include the afforestation of 100,000 ha (mainly native forest) by 2030, we quantify the impacts on water supply due to the afforestation of 100,000 ha with different combinations of NF and FP. We show that annual runoff is highly sensitive to the relative area of FP to NF: ratios of FP to NF areas of 10%, 50% and 90% would lead to 3%, -18% and -40% changes in mean annual runoff, respectively. Our results can be used in the discussion of public policies and decision-making involving forests and land cover changes, as they provide scientifically-based tools to quantify expected impacts on water resources. In particular, this knowledge is relevant for decision making regarding mitigation strategies pledged in the Chilean NDC. © 2019 by the authors. | Forests | 19994907 | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/10/6/473 | art473 | 10 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; forest plantation; grassland; land use and land cover change; native forest; ndc; shrubland; water provision; water supply, chile; decision making; land use; reforestation; regression analysis; runoff; chile; eucalyptus; pinus radiata; catchments; decision making; land use; large dataset; reforestation; regression analysis; runoff; chile; forest plantation; grassland; land use and land cover change; native forests; shrublands; water provision; grassland; land cover; land use change; plantation forestry; runoff; shrubland; streamflow; water supply; water supply | Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5090000, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2, FONDAP 15110009), Santiago, 8320000, Chile; Fundación Centro de los Bosques Nativos FORECOS, Valdivia, 5090000, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 8320000, Chile; Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 8320000, Chile |
| Anthropocene and streamflow: Long-term perspective of streamflow variability and water rights | Barría P.; Rojas M.; Moraga P.; Muñoz A.; Bozkurt D.; Alvarez-Garreton C. | Agua y Extremos; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 2019 | 10.1525/elementa.340 | Since 1981, water allocation in Chile has been based on a water use rights (WURs) market, with limited regulatory and supervisory mechanisms. The volume to be granted as permanent and eventual WURs is calculated from streamflow records, if stream gauge data are available, or from hydrologic parameter transfer from gauged to ungauged catchments, usually with less than 50 years of record. To test the performance of this allocation system, while analyzing the long-term natural variability in water resources, we investigated a 400 year-long (1590–2015) tree-ring reconstruction of runoff and historical water rights for Perquilauquén at Quella catchment, a tributary to the Maule River in Central Chile (35°S–36°30S). Furthermore, we assess how the current legislation would perform under a projected climate scenario, based on historical climate simulations of runoff calibrated against observed data, and future projections. Our analyses indicate that the allocation methodology currently applied by the Water Authority in Chile is very sensitive to the time window of data used, which leads to an underestimation of variability and long-term trends. According to the WURs database provided by the Chilean Water Directorate, WURs at Perquilauquén at Quella are already over-allocated. Considering regional climate projections, this condition will be exacerbated in the future. Furthermore, serious problems regarding the access and quality of information on already-granted WURs and actual water usage have been diagnosed, which further encumber environmental strategies to deal with and adapt to climate change. We emphasize the urgent need for a review and revision of current water allocation methodologies and water law in Chile, which are not concordant with the dynamics and non-stationarity of hydrological processes. Water scarcity and water governance are two of the key issues to be faced by Chile in the Anthropocene. Copyright: © 2019 The Author(s). | Elementa | 23251026 | https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.340/ | art2 | 7 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | multicentury variability; runoff variability; water governance; water rights, chile; maule; maule river; anthropocene; catchment; database; human rights; hydrological regime; planning legislation; regional climate; regulatory framework; streamflow; tributary; water resource; water use efficiency | Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservación de la Naturaleza, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2, FONDAP15110009, Chile; Centro de Derecho Ambiental, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, CL Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile |
| Human–environmental drivers and impacts of the globally extreme 2017 Chilean fires | Bowman D.M.J.S.; Moreira-Muñoz A.; Kolden C.A.; Chávez R.O.; Muñoz A.A.; Salinas F.; González-Reyes Á.; Rocco R.; de la Barrera F.; Williamson G.J.; Borchers N.; Cifuentes L.A.; Abatzoglou J.T.; Johnston F.H. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1007/s13280-018-1084-1 | In January 2017, hundreds of fires in Mediterranean Chile burnt more than 5000 km 2 , an area nearly 14 times the 40-year mean. We contextualize these fires in terms of estimates of global fire intensity using MODIS satellite record, and provide an overview of the climatic factors and recent changes in land use that led to the active fire season and estimate the impact of fire emissions to human health. The primary fire activity in late January coincided with extreme fire weather conditions including all-time (1979–2017) daily records for the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and maximum temperature, producing some of the most energetically intense fire events on Earth in the last 15-years. Fire activity was further enabled by a warm moist growing season in 2016 that interrupted an intense drought that started in 2010. The land cover in this region had been extensively modified, with less than 20% of the original native vegetation remaining, and extensive plantations of highly flammable exotic Pinus and Eucalyptus species established since the 1970s. These plantations were disproportionally burnt (44% of the burned area) in 2017, and associated with the highest fire severities, as part of an increasing trend of fire extent in plantations over the past three decades. Smoke from the fires exposed over 9.5 million people to increased concentrations of particulate air pollution, causing an estimated 76 premature deaths and 209 additional admissions to hospital for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. This study highlights that Mediterranean biogeographic regions with expansive Pinus and Eucalyptus plantations and associated rural depopulation are vulnerable to intense wildfires with wide ranging social, economic, and environmental impacts, which are likely to become more frequent due to longer and more extreme wildfire seasons. © 2018, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. | Ambio | 00447447 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13280-018-1084-1 | 350-362 | 48 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; droughts; fires; humans; pinus; weather; chile; eucalyptus; atmospheric pollution; extreme event; forest fire; health risk; land cover; mediterranean environment; modis; native species; pollution incidence; satellite altimetry; smoke; chile; drought; fire; human; pine; weather, fire weather; forest plantations; land cover change; mediterranean climate; smoke pollution; wildfire | School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, 7001, TAS, Australia; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, 2241, Av. Brasil, Chile; College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, 83844-1133, ID, United States; Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Campus Isla Teja, Casilla, Valdivia, 567, Chile; Industrial and Systems Engineering Department, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avda. Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago, Chile; College of Science, University of Idaho, Moscow, 83844-3021, ID, United States; Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 23, Hobart, 7001, TAS, Australia; Fiscalía del Medio Ambiente (ONG FIMA), Mosqueto 491, of. 312, Santiago, Chile; Faculty of Architecture, Urbanism and Geography, Universidad de Concepcion, Victor Lamas 1290, Concepción, Chile |
| Role of the East Asian trough on the eastern Mediterranean temperature variability in early spring and the extreme case of 2004 warm spell | Bozkurt D.; Ezber Y.; Sen O.L. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1007/s00382-019-04847-5 | This study investigates the potential influence of the East Asian trough (EAT) on the eastern Mediterranean temperature variability in early spring. In connection with this, it also examines the extreme case of the year 2004 when anomalous warming of the eastern Anatolia resulted in unprecedented snowmelt runoff amounts in the Euphrates and Tigris basins in early March. In the analyses, we used reanalysis data, gridded products of surface temperature and snow cover, river discharge data and satellite imagery. We employed an intensity index for the EAT and a trough displacement index for the Mediterranean trough (MedT) to explore the relationship between the strength of the EAT and the displacement of the MedT at pentad resolution. Our analysis shows that there are statistically significant correlations (at 99% confidence level) between the strength of the EAT and the zonal shift of the MedT on some pentads (e.g., 3rd, 13th, 37th and 59th), but that the highest correlation occurs on the 13th pentad of the year corresponding to the early days of March. It seems that, on this pentad, when the EAT is strong, the MedT tends to be located in the west of its climatological position (about 30 - 35 ∘E) which causes warmer conditions over the eastern Mediterranean. In 2004, which appears to be an extreme year for this phenomenon, the MedT is positioned and deepened in the central Mediterranean (about 10 - 15 ∘E), and extended towards central Africa during the early days of March. This synoptic pattern provided favorable conditions for the development of a tropical plume/atmospheric river with a southwest-northeast orientation, carrying warm tropical African air towards the eastern Mediterranean and Anatolian highlands resulting in rapid melting of the snowpack as well as severe precipitation, and thus flooding events, in the eastern Anatolia. A key finding in our analysis is that the strengthening of the EAT was instrumental to the increased amplitude of the ridge-trough system over the Euro-Mediterranean region in the early days of 2004 spring. We highlight that the response of surface and upper level meteorological conditions to the amplitude of the ridge-trough system enhanced by the strength of the EAT might be crucial in the understanding of some of the extreme hydrometeorological events in the eastern Mediterranean region. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. | Climate Dynamics | 09307575 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-019-04847-5 | 2309-2326 | 53 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | atmospheric river; atmospheric teleconnections; euphrates-tigris rivers; euro-mediterranean; hydrometeorological extreme events; rossby wave, euphrates river; far east; mediterranean sea; mediterranean sea (east); tigris river; confidence interval; extreme event; hydrometeorology; river discharge; rossby wave; snowmelt; spring (season); teleconnection; temperature profile; trough; warming | Department of Geophysics, Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey |
| Dynamical downscaling over the complex terrain of southwest South America: present climate conditions and added value analysis | Bozkurt D.; Rojas M.; Boisier J.P.; Rondanelli R.; Garreaud R.; Gallardo L. | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1007/s00382-019-04959-y | This study evaluates hindcast simulations performed with a regional climate model (RCM, RegCM4) driven by reanalysis data (ERA-Interim) over the Pacific coast and Andes Cordillera of extratropical South America. A nested domain configuration at 0. 44 ∘ (∼ 50 km) and 0. 09 ∘ (∼ 10 km) spatial resolutions is used for the simulations. RegCM4 is also driven by a global climate model (GCM, MPI-ESM-MR) on the same domain configuration to asses the added values for temperature and precipitation (historical simulations). Overall, both 10 km hindcast and historical simulation results are promising and exhibit a better representation of near-surface air temperature and precipitation variability compared to the 50 km simulations. High-resolution simulations suppress an overestimation of precipitation over the Andes Cordillera of northern Chile found with the 50 km simulations. The simulated daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices from 10 km hindcast simulation show a closer estimation of the observed fields. A persistent warm bias (∼+4∘C) over the Atacama Desert in 10 km hindcast simulation reveals the complexity in representing land surface and radiative processes over the desert. Difficulties in capturing the temperature trend in northern Chile are notable for both hindcast simulations. Both resolutions exhibit added values for temperature and precipitation over large parts of Chile, in particular, the 10 km resolves the coastal-valley Andes transitions over central Chile. Our results highlight that resolutions coarser than 50 km (e.g., GCMs and reanalysis) miss important climate gradients imposed by complex topography. Given that the highest spatial resolution of the current regional simulations over the South America is about 50 km, higher resolutions are important to improve our understanding of the dynamical processes that determine climate over complex terrain and extreme environments. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. | Climate Dynamics | 09307575 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-019-04959-y | 6745-6767 | 53 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | atacama desert; chile; climate variability; model evaluation; patagonia; temporal-spatial scale analysis, andes; atacama desert; chile; patagonia; equus asinus; climate conditions; climate modeling; climate variation; complex terrain; downscaling; regional climate; spatial analysis; temporal analysis | Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Assessing snow accumulation patterns and changes on the Patagonian Icefields | Bravo C.; Bozkurt D.; Gonzalez-Reyes A.; Quincey D.J.; Ross A.N.; Farías-Barahona D.; Rojas M. | Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.3389/fenvs.2019.00030 | Recent evidence shows that most Patagonian glaciers are receding rapidly. Due to the lack of in situ long-term meteorological observations, the understanding of how glaciers are responding to changes in climate over this region is extremely limited, and uncertainties exist in the glacier surface mass balance model parameterizations. This precludes a robust assessment of glacier response to current and projected climate change. An issue of central concern is the accurate estimation of precipitation phase. In this work, we have assessed spatial and temporal patterns in snow accumulation in both the North Patagonia Icefield (NPI) and South Patagonia Icefield (SPI). We used a regional climate model, RegCM4.6 and four Phase Partitioning Methods (PPM) in addition to short-term snow accumulation observations using ultrasonic depth gauges (UDG). Snow accumulation shows that rates are higher on the west side relative to the east side for both icefields. The values depend on the PPM used and reach a mean difference of 1,500 mm w.e., with some areas reaching differences higher than 3,500 mm w.e. These differences could lead to divergent mass balance estimations depending on the scheme used to define the snow accumulation. Good agreement is found in comparing UDG observations with modeled data on the plateau area of the SPI during a short time period; however, there are important differences between rates of snow accumulation determined in this work and previous estimations using ice core data at annual scale. Significant positive trends are mainly present in the autumn season on the west side of the SPI, while on the east side, significant negative trends in autumn were observed. Overall, for the rest of the area and during other seasons, no significant changes can be determined. In addition, glaciers with positive and stable elevation and frontal changes determined by previous works are related to areas where snow accumulation has increased during the period 2000-2015. This suggests that increases in snow accumulation are attenuating the response of some Patagonian glaciers to warming in a regional context of overall glacier retreat. © 2019 Bravo, Bozkurt, Gonzalez-Reyes, Quincey, Ross, Farías-Barahona and Rojas. | Frontiers in Environmental Science | 2296665X | https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00030/full | art30 | 7 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | glacier mass-balance; patagonian icefields; regional climate model; snow accumulation; snow trends, nan | School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Institut für Geographie, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany |
| A multiscale productivity assessment of high andean peatlands across the Chilean Altiplano using 31 years of landsat imagery | Chávez R.O.; Christie D.A.; Olea M.; Anderson T.G. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.3390/rs11242955 | The high Andean peatlands, locally known as "bofedales", are a unique type of wetland distributed across the high-elevation South American Altiplano plateau. This extensive peatland network stores significant amounts of carbon, regulates local and regional hydrological cycles, supports habitats for a variety of plant and animal species, and has provided critical water and forage resources for the livestock of the indigenous Aymara communities for thousands of years. Nevertheless, little is known about the productivity dynamics of the high Andean peatlands, particularly in the drier western Altiplano region bordering the Atacama desert. Here, we provide the first digital peatland inventory and multiscale productivity assessment for the entire western Altiplano (63,705 km2) using 31 years of Landsat data (about 9000 scenes) and a non-parametric approach for estimating phenological metrics. We identified 5665 peatland units, covering an area of 510 km2, and evaluated the spatiotemporal productivity patterns at the regional, peatland polygon, and individual pixel scales. The regional assessment shows that the peatland areas and peatlands with higher productivity are concentrated towards the northern part of our study region, which is consistent with the Altiplano north-south aridity gradient. Regional patterns further reveal that the last seven years (2011-2017) have been the most productive period over the past three decades. While individual pixels show contrasting patterns of reductions and gains in local productivity during the most recent time period, most of the study area has experienced increases in annual productivity, supporting the regional results. Our novel database can be used not only to explore future research questions related to the social, biological, and hydrological influences on peatland productivity patterns, but also to provide technical support for the sustainable development of livestock practices and conservation and water management policy in the Altiplano region. © 2019 by the authors. | Remote Sensing | 20724292 | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/24/2955 | art2955 | 11 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | atacama; bofedal; npphen; phenology; time series; wetlands, forestry; pixels; productivity; research and development management; time series; water conservation; water management; atacama; bofedal; hydrological cycles; nonparametric approaches; npphen; phenology; productivity assessment; water management policy; wetlands | Laboratorio de Geo-Información y Percepción Remota, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, 2362807, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5110566, Chile; Center for Climate Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, 8370449, Chile; School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, 85721, AZ, United States |
| GIMMS NDVI time series reveal the extent, duration, and intensity of “blooming desert” events in the hyper-arid Atacama Desert, Northern Chile | Chávez R.O.; Moreira-Muñoz A.; Galleguillos M.; Olea M.; Aguayo J.; Latín A.; Aguilera-Betti I.; Muñoz A.A.; Manríquez H. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1016/j.jag.2018.11.013 | The “blooming desert”, or the explosive development and flowering of ephemeral herbaceous and some woody desert species during years with abnormally high accumulated rainfall, is a spectacular biological phenomenon of the hyper-arid Atacama Desert (northern Chile) attracting botanists, ecologists, geo-scientists, and the general public from all over the world. However, the number of “blooming deserts”, their geographical distribution and spatio-temporal patterns have not been quantitatively assessed to date. Here, we used NDVI data from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) project to reconstruct the annual land surface phenology (LSP) of the Atacama Desert using a non-parametric statistical approach. From the reconstructed LSP, we detected the “blooming deserts” as positive NDVI anomalies and assessed three dimensions of the events: their temporal extent, intensity of “greening” and spatial extent. We identified 13 “blooming deserts” between 1981 and 2015, of which three (1997–98, 2002–03, and 2011) can be considered major events according to these metrics. The main event occurred in 2011, spanning 180 days between July and December 2011, and spread over 11,136 km2 of Atacama dry plains. “Blooming deserts” in Atacama have been triggered by the accumulation of precipitation during a period of 2 to 12 months before and during the events. The proposed three-dimensional approach allowed us to characterize different types of “blooming deserts”: with longer episodes or larger spatial distribution or with different “greening” intensities. Its flexibility to reconstruct different LSP and detect anomalies makes this method a useful tool to study these rare phenomena in other deserts in the world also. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. | International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation | 15698432 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0303243418306202 | 193-203 | 76 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | atacama desert; chile; desert; extreme event; land surface; numerical model; phenology; precipitation intensity; remote sensing; time series; vegetation mapping, ephemeral vegetation; extreme events; land surface phenology; npphen; precipitation variability; remote sensing; time series | Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Instituto de Geografía, Valparaíso, Chile; Universidad Austral de Chile, Centro Transdisciplinario de Estudios Ambientales y Desarrollo Humano Sostenible (CEAM), Valdivia, Chile; Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Agronómicas Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate Resilience Research (CR)2, University of Chile, Santiago, 8370449, Chile |
| Centennial-Scale SE Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability Over the Past 2,300 Years | Collins J.A.; Lamy F.; Kaiser J.; Ruggieri N.; Henkel S.; De Pol-Holz R.; Garreaud R.; Arz H.W. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1029/2018PA003465 | Detailed temperature reconstructions over the past 2,000 years are important for contextualizing modern climate change. The midlatitude SE Pacific is a key region in this regard in terms of understanding the climatic linkages between the tropics and southern high latitudes. Multicentennial timescale temperature variability remains, however, poorly understood, due to a lack of long, high-temporal-resolution temperature records from this region and from the southern high latitudes in general. We present a unique alkenone sea surface temperature (SST) record from 44°S on the southern Chilean margin in the SE Pacific spanning the last 2,300 years at decadal resolution. The record displays relatively large changes including a cooling transition from 14 to 12.5 °C between 1,100 and 600 cal yr BP, in line with other Chile margin SST records and coeval with Antarctic cooling. This cooling is attributable to reduced Southern Ocean deep convection, driven by a late Holocene sea-ice increase in the Weddell Sea associated with increased El-Niño Southern Oscillation variability. Superimposed on the late Holocene cooling, we observe multicentennial timescale SST variability, including relatively cool SSTs (12.5 °C) from 950 to 500 cal yr BP, corresponding to the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and warmer SSTs (13 °C) from 500 to 200 cal yr BP, corresponding to the Little Ice Age. These oscillations may reflect either multicentennial internal variability of the Southern Ocean deep convection and/or multicentennial variability in the phasing of El-Niño Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode events. ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. | Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology | 25724517 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018PA003465 | 336-352 | 34 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | pacific ocean; pacific ocean (southeast); southern ocean; weddell sea; climate change; convection; cooling; el nino-southern oscillation; holocene; medieval warm period; reconstruction; sea ice; sea surface temperature, nan | Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Alten Hafen 26, Bremerhaven, Germany; IOW - Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Warnemünde, Germany; Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, Bremerhaven, Germany; GAIA-Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Growth and steady state of the Patagonian Andes | Colwyn D.A.; Brandon M.T.; Hren M.T.; Hourigan J.; Pacini A.; Cosgrove M.G.; Midzik M.; Garreaud R.D.; Metzger C. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.2475/06.2019.01 | Water isotopes are an important tool for reconstructing the amount of atmospheric lifting related to high topography in the geologic past. However, our capacity for meaningful interpretation requires understanding the climatic setting and isolating the influence of orography on water isotopes. Patagonia's simple, steady climatology and location within the Southern Westerlies makes it an ideal setting for successful application of water isotopes to measuring topography through time. Here we use hydrated volcanic glass to construct a new record of the size of the Patagonian Andes during the Cenozoic. We also utilize a novel method for identifying the contribution of orography in regional climate records. Our results show that variation in the observed record can largely be explained by variations in climate. Thus we conclude that the mountain range has maintained a size similar to modern since at least Paleocene. This result is in agreement with geologic data, which constrain the bulk of the surface uplift of the Andes to the Cretaceous. The reconstruction of the Patagonian Andes, which grew in the Cretaceous and remained high through the Cenozoic, is markedly different from the widely held view of Miocene formation of this mountain range. In particular, the topography appears to remain stable during the northward propagation and collision of offshore spreading centers. © 2019 American Journal of Science. All rights reserved. | American Journal of Science | 00029599 | http://www.ajsonline.org/lookup/doi/10.2475/06.2019.01 | 431-472 | 319 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | patagonia; cenozoic; climate variation; collision zone; cretaceous; growth rate; isotopic composition; orographic effect; paleoatmosphere; paleocene; paleoclimate; paleotopography; reconstruction; regional climate; spreading center; volcanic glass; water chemistry, paleotopography; patagonia; volcanic glass; water isotopes | Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States; Center for Integrative Geosciences, Department of Chemistry, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California-Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States; Departamento de Geofísica, Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; California College of the Arts, San Francisco, CA, United States; University of Colorado, Boulder, United States |
| Geohistorical records of the Anthropocene in Chile | Gayo E.M.; McRostie V.B.; Campbell R.; Flores C.; Maldonado A.; Uribe-Rodriguez M.; Moreno P.I.; Santoro C.M.; Christie D.A.; Muñoz A.A.; Gallardo L. | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 2019 | 10.1525/elementa.353 | The deep-time dynamics of coupled socio-ecological systems at different spatial scales is viewed as a key framework to understand trends and mechanisms that have led to the Anthropocene. By integrating archeological and paleoenvironmental records, we test the hypothesis that Chilean societies progressively escalated their capacity to shape national biophysical systems as socio-cultural complexity and pressures on natural resources increased over the last three millennia. We demonstrate that Pre-Columbian societies intentionally transformed Chile’s northern and central regions by continuously adjusting socio-cultural practices and/or incorporating technologies that guaranteed resource access and social wealth. The fact that past human activities led to cumulative impacts on diverse biophysical processes, not only contradicts the notion of pristine pre-Industrial Revolution landscapes, but suggests that the Anthropocene derives from long-term processes that have operated uninterruptedly since Pre-Columbian times. Moreover, our synthesis suggests that most of present-day symptoms that describe the Anthropocene are rooted in pre-Columbian processes that scaled up in intensity over the last 3000 years, accelerating after the Spanish colonization and, more intensely, in recent decades. The most striking trend is the observed coevolution between the intensity of metallurgy and heavy-metal anthropogenic emissions. This entails that the Anthropocene cannot be viewed as a universal imprint of human actions that has arisen as an exclusive consequence of modern industrial societies. In the Chilean case, this phenomenon is intrinsically tied to historically and geographically diverse configurations in society-environment feedback relationships. Taken collectively with other case studies, the patterns revealed here could contribute to the discussion about how the Anthropocene is defined globally, in terms of chronology, stratigraphic markers and attributes. Furthermore, this deep-time narrative can potentially become a science-based instrument to shape better-informed discourses about the socio-environmental history in Chile. More importantly, however, this research provides crucial “baselines” to delineate safe operating spaces for future socio-ecological systems. © 2019 University of California Press. All rights reserved. | Elementa | 23251026 | https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.353/ | art15 | 7 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | anthropogenic landscapes; archeological records; historical ecology; niche construction; paleoenvironmental records; socio-ecological systems, anthropocene; anthropogenic source; archaeology; biophysics; coevolution; colonization; complexity; heavy metal; historical record; landscape; metallurgy; paleoenvironment; social change | Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2, FONDAP, 15110009), Chile; Laboratory for Stable Isotope Biogeochemistry, Departamento de Oceanografía, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Chile; Programa de Antropología, Instituto de Sociología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), La Serena, Chile; Instituto de Investigación Multidisciplinario en Ciencia y Tecnología, Universidad de La Serena, La Serena, Chile; Departamento de Biología Marina, Universidad Católica del Norte, Coquimbo, Chile; Departamento de Antropología, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Alta Investigación, Universidad de Tarapacá, Arica, Chile; Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Institute of Geography, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaiso, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Spatial variability of near-surface temperature over the coastal mountains in southern Chile (38°S) | González S.; Garreaud R. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1007/s00703-017-0555-4 | The spatial distribution of the near-surface air temperature over a coastal mountain range in southern Chile [Nahuelbuta Mountains (NM), 38°S, maximum height 1300-m ASL] is investigated using in situ measurements, satellite-derived land-surface temperature, and simulations during the austral winter of 2011. Based on a few selected but representative cases, we found that under rainy conditions—either at day or night—temperature decreases with height close to the moist adiabatic lapse rate (~6.5 °C/km). Likewise, the temperature tends to follow the dry adiabat (~9.8 °C/km) during daytime under dry- and clear-skies conditions. During clear-skies nights, the temperature also decreases with height over the southeastern side of NM, but it often increases (at about 8 °C/km) over the northwestern side of the mountains. This temperature inversion extends up to about 700-m ASL leading to an average temperature contrast of about 7 °C between the northwestern and southeastern sides of Nahuelbuta by the end of dry nights. These dawns also feature substantial temperature differences (>10 °C) among closely located stations at a same altitude. High-resolution numerical simulations suggest that upstream blocking of the prevailing SE flow, hydrostatic mountain waves, and strong downslope winds is responsible for such distinctive nocturnal temperature distribution. © 2017, The Author(s). | Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics | 01777971 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00703-017-0555-4 | 89-104 | 131 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, chile; coastal cordillera; cordillera de nahuelbuta; air temperature; computer simulation; in situ measurement; mountain; spatial distribution; surface temperature; winter | Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, Chile |
| A 15,400-year long record of vegetation, fire-regime, and climate changes from the northern Patagonian Andes | Jara I.A.; Moreno P.I.; Alloway B.V.; Newnham R.M. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.106005 | Paleoecological studies from the northern Patagonian Andes (40–44°S) have identified past changes in vegetation, fire regimes and paleoclimate since the last glaciation, including variations in strength and position of the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW). The extent to which records west and east of the Andes provide a congruent paleoclimatic history, however, has not been explored in detail in the literature. Physical and biological contrasts are evident between these regions today and are to be expected in paleoclimate reconstructions. In this context, we present pollen and charcoal records from sediment cores collected in Lago Espejo, a small closed-basin lake located in the core sector of the northern Patagonian Andes that spans uninterrupted the last ∼15,400 years. Following glacier withdrawal, the vegetation surrounding Lago Espejo features scattered Nothofagus woodlands, including relatively thermophilous rainforest trees between ∼15,400 and 14,400 cal yr BP. The disappearance of these trees and an abrupt rise in Nothofagus at ∼14,400 cal yr BP mark the establishment of closed-canopy forests during the Antarctic Cold Reversal, followed by increases in the cold-tolerant hygrophilous conifer Podocarpus nubigena during the Younger Dryas (∼12,700–11,500 cal yr BP). The Holocene vegetation consists of Nothofagus-dominated forests with modest variation in composition and structure until the present, attesting to the resilience of these forest communities to climate change and natural disturbance regimes. Rapid deforestation, anthropogenic fires and the establishment of artificial meadows with exotic herbs introduced by Europeans at ∼150 cal yr BP, triggered a rapid, large-magnitude landscape transformation unprecedented in the last 14,000 years. The timing and structure of vegetation changes revealed by the Lago Espejo record suggest that changes in the SWW were the main driver of vegetation and fire regimes in the Andes of northern Patagonia over the last 15,400 years. Comparison between multiple reconstructions from northern Patagonia reveals overall coherent vegetation and fire regime changes in the western and Andean sectors, and a spatially variable and more divergent behaviour in sites located further east. This spatial patter is akin to the present-day correlation between precipitation and SWW in this region. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd | Quaternary Science Reviews | 02773791 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379119305281 | art106005 | 226 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | disturbance regimes; northern patagonia; nothofagus forest; southern andes; southern westerly winds, andes; patagonia; coniferophyta; nothofagus; podocarpus nubigenus; charcoal; deforestation; fires; glacial geology; repair; vegetation; disturbance regime; northern patagonia; nothofagus forests; southern andes; southern westerly winds; climate change; coniferous tree; fire history; holocene; hydrological regime; paleoclimate; palynology; rainforest; westerly; younger dryas; climate change | School of Geography, Environment & Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, PO Box 600, New Zealand; Núcleo Milenio Paleoclima, Centro de Estudios del Clima y la Resiliencia, and Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Private Bag, Auckland, 92019, New Zealand; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Av. Vicuna Mackenna, Santiago, 4860, Chile |
| On the evaluation of adaptation practices: a transdisciplinary exploration of drought measures in Chile | Lillo-Ortega G.; Aldunce P.; Adler C.; Vidal M.; Rojas M. | Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1007/s11625-018-0619-5 | A severe drought has affected central Chile since 2009. Various adaptation responses have been developed, and a participatory process is required to learn from them. To enable this, a transdisciplinary approach was adopted to achieve two objectives: first, to test an approach for assessing the effectiveness of existing measures to respond to drought, specifically to distil strengths and weaknesses of implementation, and developing recommendations; second, to reflect on results from a pilot project conducted to ascertain its potential for scalability in terms of processes employed. The research was organized per the three types of knowledge needed to address complex problems through transdisciplinarity: systems, target and transformation knowledge. Using the recent drought as a boundary object, we conducted the pilot in two locations in Chile where we carried out literature reviews, interviews and focus group discussions were carried out. We identified adaptation measures at national and local scale, a set of which were evaluated applying the Index for the Usefulness of Adaptation Practices (IUPA). Results indicate that through IUPA, we could systematically account for the perceived effectiveness of applied measures. Strengths such as autonomy in the decision-making process emerged as key factors that could also be applied in other contexts, whereas weaknesses such as lack of integration with other policy domains, programs or projects were identified. To address weaknesses, key recommendations were proposed, which are congruent with context-specific expectations, capacities, experiences and knowledge, given that they were articulated by local actors. Results present empirical evidence on the important utility of transdisciplinary approaches in the evaluation of adaptation measures and can support the development of metrics related to adaptation process at the local scale. © 2018, Springer Japan KK, part of Springer Nature. | Sustainability Science | 18624065 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11625-018-0619-5 | 1057-1069 | 14 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, chile; drought; evaluation of adaptation; index for the usefulness of adaptation practices (iupa); resilience; transdisciplinarity | Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Blanco Encalada 2002, 4th Floor, Santiago, 8370449, Chile; Department of Environmental Science and Natural Resources Management, University of Chile, Avenida Santa Rosa 11315, La Pintana, Santiago, Chile; Transdisciplinarity Lab (TdLab), Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Universitaetstrasse 22, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland; Mountain Research Initiative, Institute of Geography, University of Bern, c/o Hallerstrasse 12, Bern, 3012, Switzerland; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, Chile |
| Integrating socio-ecological dynamics into land use policy outcomes: A spatial scenario approach for native forest conservation in south-central Chile | Manuschevich D.; Sarricolea P.; Galleguillos M. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.01.042 | Chile is one of the first documented nations to undergo a forest transition dominated by tree farm expansion. Scenario modelling can inform the possible outcomes of forest conservation policies, especially when the scenarios are rooted in the political dynamics that shaped the current legislation. In Chile, tree farms of non-native Radiata Pine and Eucalyptus provide a fast return on investment. Today, fast-growing plantations compete for land area with forest conservation, putting the unique bundle of ecosystem services provided by the latter at risk. Based on a previous political analysis, we propose scenarios projected to 2030 to compare a business-as-usual scenario with A) a conservation scenario based on strict land use restrictions B) an optimistic conservation scenario; C) an unrestricted industrial land use scenario; and D) a restricted industrial land use scenario. The scenarios differ in terms of the implemented policy instruments and the land area required for each land use. We compared these scenarios in terms of carbon stock, control of erosion and wood production, all of which are relevant in the current Chilean political debate. A conservation scenario (A), that combines incentives and restrictions, would imply the largest increase in native forest and regulation services, namely carbon stock and erosion control. In contrast, an unrestricted industrial land use scenario (C) leads to the worst outcomes in terms of erosion compared to a business-as-usual scenario. This study seeks to link political and economic processes underpinning land use change to environmental outcomes, while contributing to the larger discussion on forest policy, forest transitions and environmental outcomes. © 2019 | Land Use Policy | 02648377 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0264837718307518 | 31-42 | 84 | Thomson Reuters SSCI | chile; eucalyptus; radiata; conservation planning; ecosystem service; forest management; forestry policy; land use planning; nature conservation; policy implementation; policy making; spatial analysis, dyna-clue; forest transitions; invest; socio-ecological; tree farms | Escuela de Geografía, Universidad Academia de Humanismo Cristiano, Condell 343. Edificio A, quinto piso. Providencia, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Geografía, University of Chile, Av. Portugal 84, Región Metropolitana, Santiago, Chile; Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, University of Chile, Av. Santa Rosa N° 11315. La Pintana, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate Resilience Research (CR2), University of Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Streamflow variations across the Andes (18°–55°S) during the instrumental era | Masiokas M.H.; Cara L.; Villalba R.; Pitte P.; Luckman B.H.; Toum E.; Christie D.A.; Le Quesne C.; Mauget S. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1038/s41598-019-53981-x | The rivers originating in the southern Andes (18°–55°S) support numerous ecosystems and a large number of human populations and socio-economic activities in the adjacent lowlands of Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. Here we show that ca. 75% of the total variance in the streamflow records from this extensive region can be explained by only eight spatially coherent patterns of variability. Five (three) of these Andean patterns exhibit extreme dry (wet) conditions in recent years, with strong interannual variations in northern Chile; long-term drying trends between 31° and 41°S; a transitional pattern in the central Patagonian Andes; and increasing trends in northwestern Argentina and southern Bolivia, the Fueguian Andes, and the eastern portion of the South Patagonian Icefield. Multivariate regression analyses show that large-scale indices of ENSO variability can predict 20% to 45% of annual runoff variability between 28° and 46°S. The influence of Antarctic and North Pacific indices becomes more relevant south of 43°S and in northwestern Argentina and southern Bolivia, respectively, but their overall skill as predictors of Andean streamflows is weak. The analyses provide relevant new information to improve understanding of the spatial coherence, the main temporal features, and the ocean-atmospheric forcings of surface runoff across the southern Andes. © 2019, The Author(s). | Scientific Reports | 20452322 | http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-53981-x | art17879 | 9 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | antarctica; argentina; article; bolivia; chile; human; sea; skill; surface runoff, nan | Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CCT- CONICET Mendoza, C.C. 330, Mendoza, (5500), Argentina; Department of Geography, University of Western Ontario, ON, Canada; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Wind Erosion and Water Conservation Unit, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Lubbock, TX, United States |
| Early arboreal colonization, postglacial resilience of deciduous Nothofagus forests, and the Southern Westerly Wind influence in central-east Andean Patagonia | Moreno P.I.; Simi E.; Villa-Martínez R.P.; Vilanova I. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.06.004 | The history and dynamics of deciduous Nothofagus forests along the eastern slopes of the central Patagonian Andes (44°-49°S) remain insufficiently studied and understood, particularly at timescales ranging from centuries to millennia. Available fossil pollen records point to time-transgressive responses of the arboreal vegetation to climatic changes during the Last Glacial Termination (T1) and early Holocene, and spatial heterogeneity since then along north-south, east-west, and elevation transects. The degree to which these results represent biogeographic and climatic trends, varying environmental gradients, or site-specific phenomena has not been assessed in detail. Here we present a fossil pollen and macroscopic charcoal record from Lago Churrasco (45°41′S, 71°49′W), a small closed-basin lake located in the deciduous Nothofagus forest zone of the central-east Andes of Chilean Patagonia. Our results suggest that Nothofagus trees colonized newly deglaciated terrains at ∼16,000 cal yr BP and formed scrublands/woodlands several millennia earlier than reported by previous studies east of the Andes. This suggests expansion and local densification of tree populations sourced from the eastern margin of the Patagonian Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum, with the additional implication that temperature and precipitation conditions favorable for tree survival and reproduction developed early during T1. We posit that the amount of moisture delivered by the Southern Westerly Winds was not a limiting factor for arboreal expansion during T1 in this sector of the central Patagonian Andes. Closed-canopy Nothofagus forests established at ∼10,000 cal yr BP and have remained essentially invariant despite climate change and natural disturbance regimes. This resilience was challenged and exceeded by human disturbance during the 20th century through the use of fire, leading to deforestation and spread of invasive exotic species in an extraordinarily rapid event. Our record suggests a permanent influence of the Southern Westerly Winds over the last 10,000 years, with relatively modest variations at centennial and millennial timescales. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd | Quaternary Science Reviews | 02773791 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379119301222 | 61-74 | 218 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, andes; patagonia; nothofagus; charcoal; deforestation; expansion; glacial geology; environmental gradient; invasive exotic species; last glacial maximum; last glacial terminations; natural disturbance regime; nothofagus forests; southern westerly winds; spatial heterogeneity; biogeography; climate change; climate variation; colonization; deciduous forest; deforestation; deglaciation; disturbance; fossil record; heterogeneity; last glacial maximum; limiting factor; pollen; postglacial; precipitation (climatology); reproduction; vegetation type; climate change | Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, Department of Ecological Sciences, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, and Centro de Investigación Gaia-Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales Bernardino Rivadavia, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Buenos Aires, Argentina |
| Multidecadal environmental pollution in a mega-industrial area in central Chile registered by tree rings | Muñoz A.A.; Klock-Barría K.; Sheppard P.R.; Aguilera-Betti I.; Toledo-Guerrero I.; Christie D.A.; Gorena T.; Gallardo L.; González-Reyes Á.; Lara A.; Lambert F.; Gayo E.; Barraza F.; Chávez R.O. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133915 | One of the most polluted areas in Chile is the Ventanas Industrial Area (VIA; 32.74°S / 71.48°W), which started in 1958 and today comprises around 16 industries in an area of ca. 4 km2. A lack of consistent long-term instrumental records precludes assessing the history of contamination in the area and also limits the evaluation of mitigation actions taken since the late 1980s. Here, we use dendrochemistry as an environmental proxy to analyze environmental changes over several decades at the VIA. We present chemical measurements of tree rings from planted, exotic Cupressus macrocarpa growing near the VIA with 4-year resolution over a period of 52 years (1960–2011). These data provide unprecedented information on regional anthropogenic pollution and are compared with a tree-ring elemental record of 48 years (1964–2011) from the Isla Negra (INE) control site not exposed to VIA emissions. For the 48 years of overlap between both sites, higher concentrations of Zn, V, Co, Cd, Ag, Fe, Cr, and Al were especially registered after the year 2000 at VIA compared to INE for the periods under study. Concentrations of Pb, Cu, As, Fe, Mo, Cr, and Zn increased through time, particularly over the period 1980–1990. Decontamination plans activated in 1992 appear to have had a positive effect on the amount of some elements, but the chemical concentration in the tree rings suggest continued accumulation of pollutants in the environment. Only after several years of implementation of the mitigation measures have some elements tended to decrease in concentration, especially at the end of the evaluated period. Dendrochemistry is a useful tool to provide a long-term perspective of the dynamics of trace metal pollution and represents a powerful approach to monitor air quality variability to extend the instrumental records back in time. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. | Science of the Total Environment | 00489697 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969719338653 | art133915 | 696 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; environmental monitoring; environmental pollution; industry; trees; chile; cupressus macrocarpa; air quality; aluminum alloys; pollution control; trace elements; trees (mathematics); aluminum; arsenic; cadmium; chromium; cobalt; copper; iron; lead; molybdenum; silver; trace metal; vanadium; zinc; baseline; dendrochemistry; industrial pollution; macrocarpa; trace metal; anthropogenic source; concentration (composition); decadal variation; dendrochronology; environmental change; soil pollution; soil quality; trace metal; tree ring; air monitoring; air pollution; air quality; article; biochemistry; chemical composition; chile; comparative study; controlled study; cupressus; cupressus macrocarpa; dendrochemistry; environmental impact; geographic distribution; human activities; industrial area; plant structures; priority journal; temporal analysis; tree ring; chemistry; environmental monitoring; industry; pollution; procedures; tree; forestry, baseline; cupressus macrocarpa; dendrochemistry; industrial pollution; trace metals | Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Estudios Ambientales, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2241, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, United States; Centro Transdisciplinario de Estudios Ambientales y Desarrollo Humano Sostenible (CEAM), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Centro de Tecnologías Ambientales, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaíso, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Laboratorio de Geo-Información y Percepción Remota, Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Fundación Centro de los Bosques Nativos FORECOS, Valdivia, Chile; Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Hémera Centro de Observación de la Tierra, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, Chile |
| 2018 International Atmospheric Rivers Conference: Multi-disciplinary studies and high-impact applications of atmospheric rivers | Ramos A.M.; Wilson A.M.; DeFlorio M.J.; Warner M.D.; Barnes E.; Garreaud R.; Gorodetskaya I.V.; Lavers D.A.; Moore B.; Payne A.; Smallcomb C.; Sodemann H.; Wehner M.; Ralph F.M. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1002/asl.935 | Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a vital role in shaping the hydroclimate of many regions globally, and can substantially impact water resource management, emergency response planning, and other socioeconomic entities. The second International Atmospheric Rivers Conference took place at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, during 25–28 June, 2018, in La Jolla, California, USA. It was sponsored by the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E). A total of 120 people attended the Conference with 94 abstracts submitted and 30 participating students. In addition to the conference, the Student Forecasting Workshop was organised in the same week. During this workshop, students were exposed to AR forecasting tools, and learned examples of how these tools could be used to make decisions for various applications. The main goals of this conference were to bring together experts from across the fields of hydrology, atmospheric, oceanic, and polar sciences, as well as water management, civil engineering, and ecology to advance the state of AR science and to explore the future directions for the field. The conference was organised into traditional oral and poster presentations, along with panel discussions and Breakout Groups. This format allowed enhanced interaction between participants, driving progress within the scientific community and the enhanced communication of societal needs by various stakeholders. Several emerging topics of research were highlighted, including subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of ARs and an overview of the AR Reconnaissance campaign. In addition to providing a forum to disseminate and debate new results from scientific talks and posters, the conference was equally effective and useful in linking scientists to users and decision-makers that require improved knowledge on ARs to manage resources and prepare for hazards. The third International Atmospheric Rivers Conference will be held in Chile in 2020, and hosted by the University of Chile, Santiago. © 2019 The Authors. Atmospheric Science Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. | Atmospheric Science Letters | 1530261X | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/asl.935 | arte935 | 20 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | california; chile; la jolla; metropolitana; san diego; united states; atmosphere; conference proceeding; knowledge; research work; student, atmospheric rivers; international atmospheric rivers conference; meeting report | Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal; Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, United States; US Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle, WA, United States; Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM), Department of Physics, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal; ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; CIRES and NOAA ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; NWS Reno, Reno, NV, United States; University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA, United States |
| Holocene glacier fluctuations in Patagonia are modulated by summer insolation intensity and paced by Southern Annular Mode-like variability | Reynhout S.A.; Sagredo E.A.; Kaplan M.R.; Aravena J.C.; Martini M.A.; Moreno P.I.; Rojas M.; Schwartz R.; Schaefer J.M. | Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.05.029 | Alpine glaciers are sensitive indicators of changes in climate, and their ubiquity in mountainous regions make them valuable proxies for terrestrial climate reconstructions worldwide. However, the timing and extent of glacier change across the South American mid-latitudes through the Holocene are still poorly constrained relative to their counterparts in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we report a new 10Be surface exposure-based chronology of moraines recording a series of progressively less-extensive glacier advances of Glaciar Torre (Argentina, 49.3°S/73.0°W) since the Last Glacial Maximum, with expansions culminating at 17,600 ± 900, 13,500 ± 500, 9700 ± 400, 6900 ± 200, 6100 ± 300, 4500 ± 200, and 530 ± 60 yr BP. The declining magnitude of Holocene glacier expansions parallels a gradual rise in local summer insolation intensity during the Holocene, while individual advances occurred during inferred negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM)-like states at centennial to millennial timescales. These observations suggest that (i) summer insolation intensity modulated antiphased trends in glacier extent in the polar hemispheres during the Holocene, and that (ii) centennial-scale ‘SAM-like’ temperature and precipitation anomalies paced glacier fluctuations throughout Patagonia. Given the persistence of the inferred ’SAM-like’ anomalies throughout the Holocene, the modern measured trend towards positive SAM index conditions could mark the onset of a fundamental shift in the climate of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes that warrants consideration in projections of future climate. © 2019 | Quaternary Science Reviews | 02773791 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379119300745 | 178-187 | 220 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | argentina; patagonia; expansion; geomorphology; glacial geology; cosmogenic isotopes; glacial; glaciation; holocenes; paleoclimatology; south america; southern annular mode; chronology; geomorphology; glacier advance; holocene; insolation; last glacial maximum; midlatitude environment; mountain region; paleoclimate; precipitation (climatology); reconstruction; southern hemisphere; summer; incident solar radiation, cosmogenic isotopes; geomorphology; glacial; glaciation; holocene; insolation; paleoclimatology; south america; southern annular mode | Departamento de Geología, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Plaza Ercilla 803, Santiago, 8370450, Chile; Núcleo Milenio Paleoclima, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avenida Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, 7820436, Chile; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, P.O. Box 1000, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, 10964-100, NY, United States; Centro de Investigación Gaia Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Avenida Bulnes 01855, Punta Arenas, 62000009, Chile; Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra (CONICET-Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, UNC), Vélez Sársfeld 1611, Córdoba, X5016GCA, Argentina; Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, Ñuñoa, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Avenida Blanco Encalada, Santiago, 2002, Chile; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences of Columbia University, New York, 10027, NY, United States; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, Chile |
| Validation of cryogenic vacuum extraction of pore water from volcanic soils for isotopic analysis | Rivera D.; Gutierrez K.; Valdivia-Cea W.; Zambrano-Bigiarini M.; Godoy-Faúndez A.; Álvez A.; Farías L. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.3390/w11112214 | Andean headwater catchments are key components of the hydrological cycle, given that they capture moisture, store water and release it for Chilean cities, industry, agriculture, and cities in Chile. However, knowledge about within-Andean catchment processes is far from clear. Most soils in the Andes derive from volcanic ash Andosols and Arenosols presenting high organic matter, high-water retention capacity and fine pores; and are very dry during summer. Despite their importance, there is little research on the hillslope hydrology of Andosols. Environmental isotopes such as Deuterium and 18-O are direct tracers for water and useful on analyzing water-soil interactions. This work explores, for the first time, the efficiency of cryogenic vacuum extraction to remove water from two contrasting soil types (Arenosols, Andosols) at five soil water retention energies (from 1500 to 33 kPa). Two experiments were carried out to analyse the impact of extraction time, and initial water content on the amount of extracted water, while a third experiment tested whether the cryogenic vacuum extraction changed the isotopic ratios after extraction. Minimum extraction times to recover over 90% of water initially in the soil samples were 40-50 min and varied with soil texture. Minimum volume for very dry soils were 0.2 mL (loamy sand) and 1 mL (loam). After extraction, the difference between the isotope standard and the isotopic values after extraction was acceptable. Thus, we recommend this procedure for soils derived from volcanic ashes. © 2019 by the authors. | Water (Switzerland) | 20734441 | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/11/2214 | art2214 | 11 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | cryogenic vacuum extraction; isotopic analysis; volcanic soils, andes; chile; catchments; cryogenics; isotopes; runoff; soil moisture; textures; volcanoes; cryogenic vacuum; environmental isotopes; hillslope hydrology; initial water contents; isotopic analysis; soil water retention; volcanic soils; water-soil interaction; catchment; deuterium; equipment component; extraction method; hillslope; isotopic analysis; soil water potential; tracer; volcanic ash; volcanic soil; water content; water retention; water-rock interaction; extraction | Centro de Recursos Hídricos para la Agricultura y la Minería, CONICYT/FONDAP 15130015, Chillán, 3812120, Chile; Department ofWater Resources, Laboratory of Comparative Policy in Water Resources Management, Universidad de Concepción, Chillán, 3812120, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, 4780000, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, CONICYT/FONDAP 15110009, Concepción, 4070386, Chile; Centro de Investigación en Sustentabilidad y Gestión Estratégica de Recursos, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, 7610658, Chile; Department of Oceanography, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, 4070386, Chile |
| Strongest MJO on Record Triggers Extreme Atacama Rainfall and Warmth in Antarctica | Rondanelli R.; Hatchett B.; Rutllant J.; Bozkurt D.; Garreaud R. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1029/2018GL081475 | Tropical perturbations have been shown theoretically and observationally to excite long-range atmospheric responses in the form of Rossby wave teleconnections that result from the equator to pole gradient of planetary vorticity. An extreme teleconnection event occurred during March 2015 in the Southeastern Pacific. As a result, extreme high temperatures were observed in Southwestern South America and the Antarctic Peninsula simultaneously with an extreme rainfall and flood event in the hyperarid Atacama desert. We show that the origin of these seemingly disconnected extreme events can be traced to a Rossby wave response to the strongest Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on record in the tropical central Pacific. A barotropic wave number 3 to 4 perturbation with group velocity between 15 and 30 m/s is consistent with the trajectory and timing followed by the upper-level anomalies radiating away from the tropics after the MJO episode. © 2019. The Authors. | Geophysical Research Letters | 00948276 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL081475 | 3482-3491 | 46 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | antarctica; atmospheric rivers; climate dynamics; extremes; flooding; rossby waves, antarctic peninsula; antarctica; atacama desert; chile; pacific ocean; pacific ocean (central); pacific ocean (southeast); south america; west antarctica; flood control; floods; mechanical waves; oil well flooding; rain; tropics; antarctic peninsula; antarctica; atmospheric response; climate dynamics; extremes; madden-julian oscillation; rossby wave; rossby wave response; air-sea interaction; barotropic wave; climate change; extreme event; flood; flooding; high temperature; madden-julian oscillation; rainfall; rossby wave; teleconnection; wave velocity; climatology | Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile; Desert Research Institute, Las Vegas, NV, United States; Centro de Estudios de Zonas Aridas, La Serena, Chile |
| Detecting Nothofagus pumilio Growth Reductions Induced by Past Spring Frosts at the Northern Patagonian Andes | Sangüesa-Barreda G.; Villalba R.; Rozas V.; Christie D.A.; Olano J.M. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.3389/fpls.2019.01413 | Extreme climatic events, such as late frosts in spring during leaf flush, have considerable impacts on the radial growth of temperate broadleaf trees. Albeit, all broadleaved species are potentially vulnerable, damage depends on the particularities of the local climate, the species, and its phenology. The impact of late spring frosts has been widely investigated in the Northern Hemisphere, but the potential incidence in Southern Hemisphere tree species is still poorly known. Here, we reconstruct spring frost occurrence at 30 stands of the deciduous tree Nothofagus pumilio in its northern range of distribution in the Patagonian Andes. We identified tree ring-width reductions at stand level not associated with regional or local drought events, matching unusual minimum spring temperatures during leaf unfolding. Several spring frosts were identified along the northern distribution of N. pumilio, being more frequent in the more continental Argentinean forests. Spring frost in 1980 had the largest spatial extent. The spring frosts in 1980 and 1992 also induced damages in regional orchards. Spring frost damage was associated with (i) a period of unusually warm temperatures at the beginning of leaf unfolding, followed by (ii) freezing temperatures. This study helps expand our understanding of the climatic constraints that could determine the future growth and dynamics of Andean deciduous forests and the potential use of tree-rings as archives of extreme events of spring frosts in northern Patagonia. © Copyright © 2019 Sangüesa-Barreda, Villalba, Rozas, Christie and Olano. | Frontiers in Plant Science | 1664462X | https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpls.2019.01413/full | art1413 | 10 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | climate change; dendroecology; extreme event; frost damage; temperature pattern; tree rings; warm spring, nan | EiFAB-iuFOR, Universidad de Valladolid, Soria, Spain; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental, Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CONICET, Mendoza, Argentina; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Center of Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile |
| Euro-Mediterranean climate variability in boreal winter: a potential role of the East Asian trough | Sen O.L.; Ezber Y.; Bozkurt D. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1007/s00382-018-4573-9 | Euro-Mediterranean climate variability has been associated mostly with the upstream atmospheric circulation and teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation and European blocking being the main ones. This study shows, for the first time, that the East Asian trough (EAT), a prominent circulation feature of the mid-troposphere in the downstream side, might exert a strong and significant role on the interannual variability of the Euro-Mediterranean climate during boreal winters. We performed empirical orthogonal function analysis on the regions of the EAT and Mediterranean trough (MedT), an important system modulating the climate of the region, to obtain the respective dominant modes of variability at 500-hPa geopotential heights. It appears that the leading modes, the intensity in the case of the EAT and the zonal displacement in the case of the MedT, are significantly correlated with each other (r = − 0.64, p < 0.001). Consequently, when the EAT is strong (weak), the MedT is observed in the west (east) of its climatological location resulting in a warmer (cooler) Middle East and northeastern Africa, a cooler (warmer) western Europe and northwestern Africa, and wetter (dryer) Italian, Balkan and Anatolian peninsulas. Given the fact that the EAT is also a key determinant of the East Asian winter climate, the identified mid-tropospheric link between East Asia and Mediterranean could help interpret some temperature and precipitation co-variability on the opposite sides of the Eurasian continent. We suggest that studies involving the Euro-Mediterranean climate should also consider the role of the EAT as it seems to be a potential driver of the year-to-year, perhaps longer-term, climate variability in the region. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. | Climate Dynamics | 09307575 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-018-4573-9 | 7071-7084 | 52 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | africa; anatolia; balkans; italian peninsula; mediterranean region; turkey; air temperature; annual variation; atmospheric circulation; climate variation; precipitation (climatology); troposphere; winter, composite analysis; eof analysis; interannual variability; precipitation; surface air temperature | Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Salmon farming vulnerability to climate change in southern Chile: understanding the biophysical, socioeconomic and governance links | Soto D.; León-Muñoz J.; Dresdner J.; Luengo C.; Tapia F.J.; Garreaud R. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1111/raq.12336 | Here, we describe an assessment of climate-change vulnerability for the salmon farming sector in southern Chile using a model that combines semi-quantitative measures of Exposure (risks), Sensitivity (economic and social dependence) and Adaptation Capacity (measures that prevent and mitigate impacts). The evaluation was carried out in eight pilot communes representative of salmon production (marine grow-out). Exposure was estimated with a semi-quantitative risk assessment tool based on oceanographic, meteorological and hydrological information, mortality-by-cause databases, and through extended consultation with experts and relevant stakeholders. Threats included relevant changes in water temperature and salinity, declines in dissolved oxygen, occurrence of HABs, and diseases that could be associated with climate change. Based on our analysis of the data, we divided the farming regions into four sub-regions with distinctive oceanographic properties and superimposed the sea surface warming trend and a spatial pattern of mortality by respective cause. Reduction of precipitation and the increase of air and sea surface temperature are the most relevant foreseen climate change drivers, especially for regions X and XI. The resulting vulnerability matrix indicated that communes with higher production concentrations were more exposed, which in some cases coincided with higher sensitivity and lower adaptation capacity. Our models of four management scenarios allowed us to explore the changes in vulnerability associated with a southward movement of salmon production towards the Magallanes region. By identifying new protocols to increase adaptation and reduce vulnerability in a spatially explicit fashion, we provide policy recommendations aimed at increasing climate change adaptation and the long-term sustainability of the sector. © 2019 The Authors. Reviews in Aquaculture Published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd | Reviews in Aquaculture | 17535123 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/raq.12336 | 354-374 | 11 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, chilean patagonia; climate change; salmon-farming employment; vulnerability | Interdisciplinary Center for Aquaculture Research (INCAR), Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Química Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro COPAS-Sur Austral, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, 8370449, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, CR2, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, 8370449, Chile |
| Extreme daily rainfall in central-southern Chile and its relationship with low-level horizontal water vapor fluxes | Valenzuela R.A.; Garreaud R.D. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0036.1 | Extreme rainfall events are thought to be one of the major threats of climate change given an increase of water vapor available in the atmosphere. However, before projecting future changes in extreme rainfall events, it is mandatory to know current patterns. In this study we explore extreme daily rainfall events along central-southern Chile with emphasis in their spatial distribution and concurrent synoptic-scale circulation. Surface rain gauges and reanalysis products from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis are employed to unravel the dependency between extreme rainfall and horizontal water vapor fluxes. Results indicate that extreme rainfall events can occur everywhere, from the subtropical to extratropical latitudes, but their frequency increases where terrain has higher altitude, especially over the Andes Mountains. The majority of these events concentrate in austral winter, last a single day, and encompass a north–south band of about 200 km in length. Composited synoptic analyses identified extreme rainfall cases dominated by northwesterly (NW) and westerly (W) moisture fluxes. Some features of the NW group include a 300-hPa trough projecting from the extratropics to subtropics, a surface-level depression, and cyclonic winds at 850 hPa along the coast associated with integrated water vapor (IWV). 30 mm. Conversely, features in the W group include both a very weak 300-hPa trough and surface depression, as well as coastal westerly winds associated with IWV. 30 mm. About half of extreme daily rainfall is associated with an atmospheric river. Extreme rainfall observed in W (NW) cases has a strong orographic (synoptic) forcing. In addition, W cases are, on average, warmer than NW cases, leading to an amplified hydrological response. © 2019 American Meteorological Society. | Journal of Hydrometeorology | 1525755X | http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0036.1 | 1829-1850 | 20 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, chile; diurnal variation; extreme event; precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; raingauge; spatiotemporal analysis; water flux; water vapor | Department of Geophysics, Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| The last glacial termination in the Coyhaique sector of central Patagonia | Vilanova I.; Moreno P.I.; Miranda C.G.; Villa-Martínez R.P. | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105976 | Southern South America is the only continental landmass that intersects the core of the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW), and thus is important for studying their role as a driver/conduit for the initiation/propagation of climate signals since the last glaciation. Their interaction with the Southern Ocean (SO) affects global climate through its influence on high-latitude upwelling and biological productivity, deep-water convection sites and, consequently, ventilation of CO2 from the deep ocean. Variations in the SWW-SO coupled system have been postulated as fundamental drivers of climate change during glacial terminations and the current interglacial. Hence, deciphering the evolution of the SWW from sensitive locations in the southern middle latitudes is essential for understanding important climatic transitions during and since the Last Glacial Termination (T1). Terrestrial records from the central Patagonian Andes (CPA) (44°-49°S), however, show heterogeneities in the timing, rates, and direction of climate change during T1, impeding detailed assessment of its drivers at regional, hemispheric, and global scales. Here we present new data on glacier, vegetation, and fire-regime changes in the Coyhaique sector (45°34′S) of CPA to improve our understanding on the timing and structure of the T1, including the behavior of the SWW. Our results indicate glacial recession from the youngest Last Glacial Maximum moraines just before ∼17.9 ka and development of an ice-dammed proglacial lake during the early stages of T1. Drainage of the ice-dammed lake, triggered by renewed glacial recession, was near-synchronous with the onset of a gradual multi-millennial trend toward arboreal dominance that started at ∼16 ka east and west of the Andes at that latitude. We detect increased influence of the SWW at ∼45°S starting at ∼16.6 ka, relative to the first millennium of T1, that led to positive anomalies in precipitation between ∼16–14.4 and ∼12.8–11.5 ka, followed by negative anomalies between ∼11.5–9 ka. The synchronous spread of arboreal vegetation east and west of the CPA divide during T1, despite the trans-Andean precipitation contrasts, suggests an upward shift in the temperature-controlled Andean tree line, underscoring the role of deglacial warming as the critical driver for afforestation at regional scale. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd | Quaternary Science Reviews | 02773791 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379119306572 | art105976 | 224 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, aisen; andes; chile; coihaique; patagonia; southern ocean; glacial geology; lakes; reforestation; vegetation; biological productivity; continental landmass; deep water convection; glacial terminations; last glacial maximum; last glacial terminations; southern south america; southern westerly winds; climate change; glacial-interglacial cycle; global climate; ice-dammed lake; last glacial; last glacial maximum; precipitation (climatology); proglacial environment; treeline; upwelling; westerly; climate change | Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales Bernardino Rivadavia, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, Center for Climate Research and Resilience, Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, Department of Ecological Sciences, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Millennium Nucleus Paleoclimate, Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, Centro de Investigación Gaia-Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile |
| TRANSFORMACIÓN: Grandes desafíos - Profundos cambios | Aldunce,P.; | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | El planeta está experimentando rápidos cambios, a una velocidad sin precedentes. En una
sola generación, los humanos nos hemos convertido en una enorme fuerza global, somos
parte de esta historia, hemos construido tanto el pasado, como el presente del planeta, somos
responsables, pero esta responsabilidad no puede ser un motivo para la inacción, sino más
bien un llamado a la acción, con esperanza de escribir un mejor futuro para el planeta. Para enfrentar el futuro, no es suficiente responder con cambios menores o incrementales, los cuales
a pesar de que han sido necesarios, no son suficientes. Hay una necesidad, urgencia y oportunidad de explorar más allá, utilizando el enfoque de la Transformación, para realizar cambios a
mayor escala y más profundos. Es importante considerar que los enfoques incrementales y los
transformacionales son complementarios, no compiten.
Los procesos transformacionales siempre han existido, ya que la transformación es un proceso
inherente a la sociedad. Por otro lado, la ciencia ha logrado grandes avances en la aproximación de la transformación a lo largo de distintas disciplinas, sin embargo, en muchos casos,
los conocimientos científico y práctico han evolucionado independientemente. El presente
documento aborda la temática de la transformación, siendo un documento de resumen, que
pueda ser de utilidad tanto para investigadores como otros actores sociales, que estén interesados en utilizar la perspectiva de la transformación, como un enfoque válido para responder
a las crecientes demandas que emergen para enfrentar el cambio climático. | | | https://www.cr2.cl/transformacion-grandes-desafios-profundos-cambios/ | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Comité Científico COP25: Criósfera y Cambio Climático 50 preguntas y respuestas | Aldunce,P.;Andrade,C.;Anicama,J.;Arana,P.;Azócar,G.;Cabrol,L.;Carrasco,J.;Casanova-Katny,A.;Cavieres,L.;Cereceda-Balic,F.;Christie,D.;Cid-Agüero,P.;Cordero,R. R.;Crespo,S.;Damiani,A.;Dussaillant-Jones,A.;Fernández,A.;Fernández,C.;Fernandoy,F.;Frangopulos,M.;Fuentes,F.;Garcés-Vargas,J.;García,A.;Giesecke,R.;Godoi,M. A.;Gómez,I.;González,I.;González,H. E.;Höfer,J.;Iriarte,J. L.;Iribarren,P.;Lambert,F.;Leppe,M.;MacDonell,S.;Matus,F.;McPhee,J.;Mestre,M.;Navarro,J.;Navarro,N.;Pardo,L. M.;Pizarro,G.;P... | Ciudades Resilientes; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | La criósfera comprende las partes de la Tierra donde encontramos agua en estado sólido: nieve, glaciares, hielo marino, mantos de hielo y suelos congelados (permafrost). El territorio chileno posee todos estos componentes, pero de ellos, los más relevantes son los glaciares, con alrededor de 24 000 km2 (3 % del área mundial). Sin embargo, los glaciares están en franco retroceso debido al cambio climático. Su distribución varía con la altitud y latitud, con un gradiente desde los Andes Norte y Centro (4.4 %), a la región centro-sur (6.2 %) hasta alcanzar su mayor extensión en la zona de la Patagonia y Tierra del Fuego (89.3 %). La pérdida de masa de hielo en la cordillera de los Andes ha sido de 23 gigatoneladas en los últimos veinte años. Preocupante aspecto, por ser el recurso agua uno de los que está más amenazado actualmente en la zona centro-norte del país. En el marco del cambio climático, la Antártica presenta procesos antagónicos y sinérgicos. Las aguas muy frías del océano tienen una gran capacidad para exportar carbono desde la atmósfera y ejercer un importante control sobre el clima regional y global. No obstante, el calentamiento global está derritiendo una parte de la cobertura de hielo, lo cual libera el hierro atrapado en su interior y potencia la productividad y exportación de carbono al fondo del océano (que estaba originalmente como CO2 en la atmósfera). Sin embargo, esta capacidad del océano de capturar CO2 se contrapone con el riesgo de incrementar su acidificación. | | | https://www.minciencia.gob.cl/comitecientifico/documentos/mesa-criosfera-y-antartica/12.Criosfera-y-cambio-climatico.pdf | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Informe de Devolución: Preparados para La Gloria, Incendios Forestales | Aldunce,P.;Pérez,S.;Flores-Haverbeck,F.;Stark,V.;Fuentes,C,;Conte,E,;Marchant,G.; | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | Durante el verano del 2017 la zona centro-sur de nuestro país fue afectada por un devastador megaincendio forestal denominado la ?Tormenta de Fuego? que impactó profundamente la localidad de La Gloria. Luego del incendio forestal, distintas generaciones nos sentamos a hablar, pintar, dibujar, y escribir nuestra historia. Recordamos lugares, experiencias, y costumbres que nos mostraron lo que nos une. Así, transformamos lo que significa este lugar para nosotros. Hoy pensamos al bosque como un lugar de juego y encuentro. Sabemos que hacer en caso de tener que enfrentar un incendio en el futuro, estamos preparados para La Gloria. Lo que construimos juntos
Construimos nuestra historia, juntándonos en 5 talleres, donde compartimos vivencias y aprendizajes sobre la experiencia del incendio. Nos sentamos a pensar en conjunto, y generamos soluciones para la comunidad. A lo largo de los talleres nos acompañó la construcción colectiva de un telar, y la creación colectiva de mapas en donde ubicábamos nuestros recuerdos, emociones y cómo nos vemos en el futuro | | | https://www.cr2.cl/informe-de-devolucion-la-gloria-preparados-para-la-gloria-incendios-forestales/ | 16 | | Not Indexed | | |
| Comité Científico COP25: Transformación: Un tema emergente en la adaptación al cambio climático en Chile. Informe de la mesa de Adaptación | Aldunce,P.;Vicuña,S.; | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | La transformación es una de las temáticas que está emergiendo en el ámbito del cambio climático en Chile. Uno de los aspectos más relevantes es promover la alfabetización del enfoque transformacional, con especial énfasis en sus modos de implementación, ya que se reconoce cierta desinformación y confusión respecto de la transformación. En particular en el caso de organizaciones gubernamentales, se recomienda comenzar su inclusión de forma explícita en las discusiones, toma de decisiones e instrumentos de política pública. Se denota una urgencia asociada a la transformación debido a la necesidad de actuar y planificar hoy para: i) hacer frente a los impactos actuales, por ejemplo, aquellos producidos por eventos climáticos extremos; ii) obtener resultados en el futuro, reforzando la visión de largo plazo, como es el caso de la Estrategia de Largo Plazo para un Desarrollo Bajo en Emisiones (ELP) del Acuerdo de París; y iii) anticiparse a los impactos futuros, en especial si se cuenta con proyecciones climáticas, para lograr una mayor probabilidad de transformaciones positivas. | | | https://www.minciencia.gob.cl/comitecientifico/documentos/mesa-adaptacion/5.Transformacion-Un-tema-emergente-en-la-adaptacion-al-cambio-climatico-en-Chile.pdf | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Comité Científico COP25: Adaptación al cambio climático en Chile: Brechas y recomendaciones. Informe de las mesas Adaptación y Agua. | Aldunce,P.;Vicuña,S.; | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | El presente informe se estructura en tres secciones. Primero, se presentan las necesidades de implementación de medidas de adaptación en un contexto global y a nivel nacional. Segundo, se hace una revisión crítica de la situación actual del uso de instrumentos públicos para la implementación de la adaptación al cambio climático en Chile. Tercero, en este análisis se entregan algunas brechas relevantes. Por último, se presenta una sección en la que se plantean una serie de desafíos y recomendaciones para mejorar la implementación de la adaptación en Chile. Sus principales mensajes son que existe consenso científico en que el cambio climático es un hecho y que en gran parte ha sido causado por la actividad antrópica. El cambio climático posee múltiples impactos en la actualidad y se espera que aumenten en el futuro. Como segundo mensaje, se concluye que Chile es un país altamente vulnerable al cambio climático. Uno de sus principales impactos es la disminución en la disponibilidad de recursos hídricos producto de la reducción en precipitación, aumento en temperatura y el derretimiento acelerado de la criósfera. Además, existen impactos asociados a otras amenazas de origen climático, como los aluviones, marejadas, incendios y olas de calor, entre otras. El cambio climático afecta de forma diferente a la población, la infraestructura y los sistemas naturales en función de una vulnerabilidad diferenciada. La adaptación emerge como una posibilidad real de aumentar la resiliencia y reducir la vulnerabilidad de estos sistemas. Nuestro país ha avanzado en el diseño e implementación de políticas públicas de adaptación. Sin embargo, existen reales posibilidades de mejoras a lo ya hecho en términos de diseño, implementación y seguimiento de Planes de Adaptación al Cambio Climático (PACC), así como también en la ambición de compromisos de las Contribuciones Determinadas a nivel Nacional (NDC). El mensaje final de este informe se basa en recomendaciones de mejoras en estos temas. | | | https://www.minciencia.gob.cl/comitecientifico/documentos/mesa-adaptacion/1.Adaptacion-Brechas-Aldunce.pdf | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Informe de Síntesis Simulaciones climáticas regionales para el continente Antártico | Bozkurt,D.;Rondanelli,R;Carrasco,J;Boisier,J.P.;Morales,B;Muñoz,F;Valdebenito,N;Del Hoyo,M.;Troncoso,M.;Bustos,S.; | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | | | | https://cambioclimatico.mma.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Informe-sintesis-simulacionesantartica.pdf | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Informe de Síntesis Simulaciones climáticas regionales para el territorio insular Chileno | Bozkurt,D;Rondanelli,R;Carrasco,J.;Boisier,J;Morales,B;Muñoz,F;Valdebenito,N;Del Hoyo,M.;Troncoso,M.;Bustos,S.; | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | | | | https://cambioclimatico.mma.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Informe-sintesis-simulaciones-territorio-insular.pdf | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Comentarios Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2 a la consulta ciudadana de primera actualización 2019 de la Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional (NDC) de Chile. Diciembre 2019 | Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2,; | Agua y Extremos; Zonas Costeras; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 2019 | | | | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Resumen-Comentarios-CR2_NDC-2019_02122019.pdf | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Comité Científico COP25: Propuesta de un Sistema Integrado de Observación del Océano Chileno | Farías,Laura;Fernández,Camila;Garreaud,René;Guzmán,Leonardo;Hormazábal,Samuel;Morales,Carmen;Narváez,Diego;Pantoja,Silvio;Pérez,Iván;Soto,Doris;Winckler,Patricio; | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | Chile ocupa el décimo puesto a nivel mundial con mayor territorio marítimo y el primer lugar en Latinoamérica con mayor superficie de mar. El país es dependiente del océano en términos económicos, sociales y
culturales, que incluyen actividades en la zona costera y oceánica. Al mismo tiempo, los procesos climáticos
y oceanográficos constituyen constantes fuentes de riesgo e incertidumbre, aumentando la vulnerabilidad
en los socio-ecosistemas marinos. Chile está declarado un país altamente vulnerable al cambio climático,
basado en estudios derivados de la Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible de las Naciones Unidas. Esto
obliga a buscar propuestas y soluciones para abordar esta vulnerabilidad.
A nivel internacional, varios países han desarrollado e implementado sistemas integrados de observación
del océano basados en información continua sobre su estado y sus recursos, con el objetivo de abordar de
forma operacional la vulnerabilidad. Estos sistemas de observación tienen propósitos, tales como, mejorar la
seguridad en operaciones marinas, fortalecer la seguridad alimentaria, apoyar las actividades económicas de
pequeña y gran escala, reducir el riesgo frente a desastres naturales y disminuir la incertidumbre económica
junto con la conflictividad social y ambiental derivada de esta. El océano chileno está afecto a una serie de
procesos globales asociados al cambio climático, regionales y locales que necesitan, ser estudiados y monitoreados. Por lo tanto, se requiere de la existencia de un sistema de registro continuo de variables atmosféricas
y oceanográficas, que provea la información necesaria para la toma de decisiones, tanto públicas como privadas, y permita realizar análisis retrospectivos y predictivos del estado del océano.
Actualmente, existen en Chile algunas iniciativas de observación y monitoreo del océano, incluyendo
aportes de servicios públicos, instituciones académicas y organizaciones privadas. Sin embargo, estas no son
sistémicas y carecen de continuidad, principalmente por falta de instrumentos financieros de largo aliento y
de la valoración política de la información. En el compromiso nacional e internacional, el Comité Científico
COP25 releva la importancia de contar con información basada en la evidencia para planificar estratégicamente el desarrollo sostenible y la equidad intergeneracional respecto del uso y la conservación del océano,
de los ecosistemas marinos y sus servicios a la humanidad.
En este escenario, académicos, servidores públicos y agentes del sector privado con competencia en la
materia proponen gestar un Sistema Integrado de Observación del Océano Chileno (SIOOC), que permita
disponer de datos de calidad, estandarizados y de acceso público para el estudio, monitoreo, manejo y vigilancia del océano y sus recursos.
Se contemplan para la implementación del SIOOC, basado en la experiencia existente y las necesidades o
brechas del Chile, tres fases en un horizonte de 6 a 8 años:
› Primero, consolidar la integración de los sistemas existentes en una red asociativa y bajo una gobernanza apropiada, con recursos humanos y financiamiento de fuentes múltiples, e incluyendo
la participación del sector privado, productivo y de la sociedad civil.
› Segundo, incorporar al sistema de nuevos equipamientos e infraestructura (primario y secundario), con un análisis de las capacidades habilitantes y la transferencia tecnológica necesaria para
aumentar el tipo, número y cobertura de las observaciones, además de fortalecer las capacidades
de predicción.
› Tercero, incorporar en pleno del SIOOC a otras redes internacionales, especialmente en zonas de
alto interés, como la zona antártica, aguas internacionales e islas oceánicas.
Las universidades y los servicios del Estado participantes en esta propuesta comprometen la infraestructura y los conocimientos existentes para dar lanzamiento al SIOOC. A su vez, esperan que el Estado tome esta
iniciativa y un compromiso nacional e internacional como una acción para proteger nuestros mares. | | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Propuesta-de-sistema-integrado-de-observación-del-océano.pdf | 1-27 | | Not Indexed | | |
| Informe a las naciones: El Antropoceno en Chile: evidencias y formas de avanzar | Gallardo,Laura;Rudnick,Andrea;Barraza,José;Fleming,Zoë L.;Rojas,Maisa;Gayo,Eugenia M.;Aguirre,Catalina;Farías,Laura;Boisier,Juan Pablo;Garreaud,René;Barría,Pilar;Miranda,Alejandro;Lara,Antonio;Gómez-González,Susana;Arriagada,Rodrigo; | Agua y Extremos; Zonas Costeras; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | 2019 | | En el siglo XXI, el desarrollo de Chile está en juego debido a las amenazas planteadas por el Antropoceno. Esta época se caracteriza por la influencia humana sobre el sistema terrestre. Sin embargo, si se enfrenta con audacia, ofrece una oportunidad para un desarrollo sostenible. Independientemente de si hemos entrado en una nueva era geológica, el Antropoceno cuestiona nuestra forma de vivir en el planeta azul del sistema solar. O, dicho de otra manera, la forma de entender el progreso y el desarrollo. En un país con grandes desigualdades sociales, altamente vulnerable al cambio global, enfrentar este desafío es de crucial importancia y puede ofrecer nuevas oportunidades. | | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Informe-Antropoceno-castellano.pdf | 40 | | Not Indexed | | |
| ¿Dónde esta lloviendo? Pregúntale a Vismet | Garreaud,René;Bastarrica,María Cecilia; | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | La meteorología es una ciencia que tiene dos
pilares. Uno de ellos es el conjunto de leyes
físicas de la atmósfera y otras componentes
del sistema terrestre. Su integración numérica
requiere grandes capacidades computacionales
y permite el pronóstico del tiempo ("forecasting")
hasta dos semanas en el futuro. El otro pilar
es el mundo de las observaciones, sin las
cuales no se podrían inicializar los modelos,
contrastar sus resultados y hacer sentido de
múltiples fenómenos atmosféricos. Más aún,
el pronóstico meteorológico de muy corto plazo
(0-6 horas) se basa mayormente en un tratamiento estadístico de las condiciones observadas actuales y pasadas. El así llamado "nowcasting" es de especial valor en condiciones
extremas; por ejemplo, para determinar si ocurrirá una crecida súbita en algún cajón cordillerano necesitamos saber qué está pasando
ahora en la cordillera. | Bits de Ciencias (DCC-UCH) | | https://www.dcc.uchile.cl/Bitsdeciencia17.pdf | 8-13 | | Not Indexed | | |
| Comité Científico COP25: Criósfera Chilena y Antártica: Recomendaciones desde la evidencia científica | González,H. E.;Bozkurt,D.;Cereceda-Balic,F.;Cordero,R.;Fernandoy,F.;Iriarte,J. L.;MacDonell,S.;McPhee,J.;Poulin,E.;Rivera,A.;Schaefer,M.; | Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | Chile es uno de los países más vulnerables al cambio climático, principalmente, debido a su configuración biogeográfica. Sus efectos ya se están manifestando, principalmente por una prologada y extensa sequía. En este contexto, es urgente la adopción de medidas de mitigación y adaptación para enfrentar los impactos actuales y los adversos escenarios futuros que predicen los modelos climáticos. La criósfera antártica y andina incluye los hielos continentales y marinos permanentes o estacionales, localizados en la península Antártica (PA) y en la región Subantártica (SANT), junto con el macizo Andino en su conjunto. La criósfera alberga una especial biodiversidad que sustenta una serie de subsistemas ecológicos (p. ej., vegas, bofedales, turberas, glaciares, permafrost, lagos subglaciales, tundras marinas, etc.) y servicios ecosistémicos vitales (agua, recreación, regulación climática, biodiversidad, alimento, turismo, etc.), los que están seriamente amenazados por el cambio climático, con negativas consecuencias para el medio ambiente, el clima y la sociedad (reducción del bienestar humano). La criósfera antártica y andina está siendo muy afectada por el alza global de la temperatura (IPCC, 2019). La pérdida de hielo continental en la Antártica se aceleró más de seis veces en las últimas cuatro décadas, mientras que el 87 % de los glaciares andinos monitoreados en territorio nacional exhiben algún grado de retroceso. Hoy, el hielo perdido por la Antártica es promotor de aproximadamente el 10 % del alza global en el nivel de mar; entretanto, el derretimiento de los glaciares andinos, especialmente aquellos en los Campos de Hielo patagónicos, es el responsable de cerca del 3 % del alza global en el nivel de mar | | | https://www.minciencia.gob.cl/comitecientifico/documentos/mesa-adaptacion/1.Adaptacion-Brechas-Aldunce.pdf | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Comité Científico COP25: Transformation from science to decision making | Moser,S.;Aldunce,P.;Rudnick,A.;Rojas,M.;Muñoz,L.; | Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | The IPCC2 understands Transformations as systemic changes that enable more ambitious, i.e., significant and rapid, advances in mitigation and adaptation than currently being observed, while also pursuing the Sustainable Development Goals of Agenda 2030. While challenging, deep and difficult transformational change is seen as an opportunity to improve human and natural conditions. Mitigation, adaptation and sustainability should thus be seen as complementary, not competing goals. Transformation means going beyond the familiar in policy- and decision-making, with actors in all sectors focused on shifting the conditions that hold damaging systems in place. | | | https://www.minciencia.gob.cl/comitecientifico/documentos/mesa-adaptacion/4.Adaptation-Transformation-Policy-Brief.pdf | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Comité Científico COP25: Transformación desde la ciencia a la toma de decisiones | Moser,S.;Aldunce,P.;Rudnick,A.;Rojas,M.;Muñoz,L.; | Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | El IPCC2 entiende por transformación aquellos cambios sistémicos que permiten avances más ambiciosos en mitigación y adaptación, es decir, significativos y rápidos, más allá de lo observado en la actualidad, y que al mismo tiempo persigan los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS) de la Agenda 2030. Si bien los cambios transformadores pueden ser desafiantes, profundos y difíciles, también constituyen una oportunidad para mejorar las condiciones de la sociedad y de la naturaleza. La mitigación, la adaptación y la transformación no deben considerarse como enfoques competitivos, sino como complementarios. La transformación significa ir más allá de lo que se ha hecho hasta ahora en la política y toma de decisiones. Para lograrlo, se requieren actores de todos los sectores, enfocados en cambiar las condiciones para mantener y mejorar los sistemas dañados | | | https://www.minciencia.gob.cl/comitecientifico/documentos/mesa-adaptacion/3.Adaptacion-Transformacion-Resumen-de-politicas.pdf | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Comité Científico COP25: Evidencia científica y cambio climático en Chile. Resumen para tomadores de decisiones. | Rojas,Maisa;Aldunce,Paulina;Farías,Laura;González,Humberto;Marquet,Pablo;Muñoz,Juan Carlos;Palma-Behnke,Rodrigo;Stehr,Alejandra;Vicuña,Sebastian; | Agua y Extremos; Zonas Costeras; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 2019 | | Los resúmenes están basados en los informes y los talleres
del Comité Científico COP25, a los que contribuyeron
investigadores de una red de más de 600 científicos de
todas las disciplinas y regiones de Chile, primordialmente de
universidades y centros de investigación académicos, pero
también de institutos públicos y privados. | | | https://comitecientifico.minciencia.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Evidencia-cientifica-y-cambio-climatico-en-Chile-Resumen.pdf | 1-68 | | Not Indexed | | |
| Informe de Devolución Trabajando juntos por Placeres Alto: Prevención comunitaria de incendios forestales | Sapiains,R.;Aldunce,P.;Ugarte,A.;Marchant,G.;Inostroza,V.;Romero,J.; | Agua y Extremos; Zonas Costeras; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 2019 | | El incremento en la frecuencia e intensidad de los incendios es una de las consecuencias esperadas del cambio climático a nivel global. En Chile, se trata de una problemática que cada año cobra mayor importancia considerando sus múltiples impactos humanos, económicos y ambientales | | | https://www.cr2.cl/informe-valparaiso/ | 16 | | Not Indexed | | |
| Comité Científico COP25: Recursos hídricos en Chile: Impactos y adaptación al cambio climático. Informe de la mesa de Agua. | Stehr,A.;Álvarez,C.;Álvarez,P.;Arumí,J. L.;Baeza,C.;Barra,R.;Berroeta,C. A.;Castillo,Y.;Chiang,G.;Cotoras,D.;Crespo,S. A.;Delgado,V.;Donoso,G.;Dussaillant,A.;Ferrando,F.;Figueroa,R.;Frêne,C.;Fuster,R.;Godoy,A.;Gómez,T.;Holzapfel,E.;Huneeus,C.;Jara,M.;Little,C.;Lizama,K.;Musalem,M.;Olivares,M.;Parra,O.;Ponce,R. D.;Rivera,D.;Rodríguez,I.;Sepúlveda,A.;Somos,M.;Ugalde,F.;Urrutia,R.;Valenzuela,M.;Vargas,C.;Vargas,X.;Vásquez,S.;Vera,I. L.;Vicuña,S.;Vidal,G.;Yévenes,M.; | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | La comparación entre el período 1985-2015 y el período 2030-2060 indica una disminución generalizada de las precipitaciones en comparación con la media histórica, pues se proyectan disminuciones promedio de entre 5% y 15% para la zona comprendida entre las cuencas de los ríos Elqui (región de Coquimbo) y el Baker (región de Aysén). Estas proyecciones se acentuarían hacia la zona sur del país, sobre todo entre la cuenca del río Biobío y el límite sur de la región de Los Lagos (Rojas, 2012). De acuerdo con trabajos como Boisier et al. (2016), se han detectado tendencias climáticas recientes en precipitación que siguen la misma dirección proyectada hacia el futuro y que han sido además atribuidas a una manifestación temprana del cambio climático | | | https://www.minciencia.gob.cl/comitecientifico/documentos/mesa-agua/19.Agua-Recursos-Hidricos-Stehr.pdf | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Comité Científico COP25: Lineamientos para el desarrollo de planes de adaptación: Aplicación de recursos hídricos. Informe de las mesas Adaptación y Agua | Vicuña,S.;Aldunce,P.;Stehr,A.;Cid,F.;Rivera,A.;Alencar,K.;Álvarez,C.;Barton,J.J.;,;Berroeta,C.;Boisier,J.P.;Bustos,E.;Bustos,S.;Correa,T.;Cortés,S.;Cubillos,L.;De la Barrera,F.;Donoso,F.;Farías,L.;Farías,D.;Fuster,R.;Gese,P.;Godoy,A.;Guerra,L.;Guida,C.;Ibarra,C.;Jadrijevic,M.;Jiliberto,R.;Lillo,G.;Medel,E.;Meruane,C.;Meza,F.;Montedónico,M.;Muñoz,J.C.;Muñoz,L.;Musalem,M.;Navarro,A.;Ovalle,C.;Palma,R.;Pelano,C.;Pica,A.;Piquer,J.;Poblete,D.;Ponce,R.;Repetto,P.;Rojas,M.;Rudnick,A.;Santis,G.;Selles,J... | Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2019 | | La planificación y sus instrumentos de aplicación, como los planes de adaptación, son herramientas fundamentales para abordar los desafíos de la adaptación a distintas escalas espaciales y sectoriales. El uso real de estas herramientas aún es limitado. Su aplicación es dispar, especialmente en el contexto de la región de América Latina. Pocos países han iniciado sus procesos de desarrollo de este tipo de herramientas, y donde se ha hecho, como en Chile, existen vacíos y brechas importantes para desarrollar su potencial. A través de un proceso participativo a lo largo del año basado en talleres con la comunidad científica, se generó una propuesta de lineamientos para el diseño, implementación y seguimiento de planes de adaptación, la que además fue implementada de manera práctica en un ejercicio hipotético de desarrollo de un Plan de Adaptación al Cambio Climático (PACC) para los Recursos Hídricos. Un lineamiento relevante tiene relación con los antecedentes y el proceso de diseño del plan. El explicitar el proceso de diseño utilizado es fundamental para otorgar transparencia y, por lo tanto, validez al plan. En el trabajo de diseño resulta crítico contar con procesos participativos que permitan identificar las principales vulnerabilidades, desafíos y objetivos hacia el futuro. En el contexto de los recursos hídricos esta necesidad es más patente, por lo que se requiere un proceso de participación lo más amplio posible, pero teniendo en cuenta que no es factible —ni deseable— que se incluyan en el desarrollo del plan medidas de adaptación muy específicas en virtud de las necesidades en cada territorio. Estas medidas se deben desarrollar, por ejemplo, en el contexto de planes de acción a una escala regional. Se propone que este proceso se desarrolle al alero de las discusiones que se van a generar respecto de los lineamientos generales de la gestión de recursos hídricos en el país, y en paralelo de las gestiones que actualmente se tienen que desarrollar para resolver los desafíos de la actual megasequía | | | https://cdn.digital.gob.cl/filer_public/f3/56/f3566a93-a46c-49cf-a73d-86d4a807a5b5/2adaptacion-lineamientosrrhh-vicuna.pdf | | | Not Indexed | | |
| The CAMELS-CL dataset: Catchment attributes and meteorology for large sample studies-Chile dataset | Alvarez-Garreton C.; Mendoza P.A.; Pablo Boisier J.; Addor N.; Galleguillos M.; Zambrano-Bigiarini M.; Lara A.; Puelma C.; Cortes G.; Garreaud R.; McPhee J.; Ayala A. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.5194/hess-22-5817-2018 | We introduce the first catchment dataset for large sample studies in Chile. This dataset includes 516 catchments; it covers particularly wide latitude (17.8 to 55.0° S) and elevation (0 to 6993 m a.s.l.) ranges, and it relies on multiple data sources (including ground data, remote-sensed products and reanalyses) to characterise the hydroclimatic conditions and landscape of a region where in situ measurements are scarce. For each catchment, the dataset provides boundaries, daily streamflow records and basin-averaged daily time series of precipitation (from one national and three global datasets), maximum, minimum and mean temperatures, potential evapotranspiration (PET; from two datasets), and snow water equivalent. We calculated hydro-climatological indices using these time series, and leveraged diverse data sources to extract topographic, geological and land cover features. Relying on publicly available reservoirs and water rights data for the country, we estimated the degree of anthropic intervention within the catchments. To facilitate the use of this dataset and promote common standards in large sample studies, we computed most catchment attributes introduced by Addor et al. (2017) in their Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large-sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset, and added several others.We used the dataset presented here (named CAMELS-CL) to characterise regional variations in hydroclimatic conditions over Chile and to explore how basin behaviour is influenced by catchment attributes and water extractions. Further, CAMELS-CL enabled us to analyse biases and uncertainties in basin-wide precipitation and PET. The characterisation of catchment water balances revealed large discrepancies between precipitation products in arid regions and a systematic precipitation underestimation in headwater mountain catchments (high elevations and steep slopes) over humid regions. We evaluated PET products based on ground data and found a fairly good performance of both products in humid regions (r > 0.91) and lower correlation (r < 0.76) in hyper-arid regions. Further, the satellite-based PET showed a consistent overestimation of observation-based PET. Finally, we explored local anomalies in catchment response by analysing the relationship between hydrological signatures and an attribute characterising the level of anthropic interventions. We showed that larger anthropic interventions are correlated with lower than normal annual flows, runoff ratios, elasticity of runoff with respect to precipitation, and flashiness of runoff, especially in arid catchments. CAMELS-CL provides unprecedented information on catchments in a region largely underrepresented in large sample studies. This effort is part of an international initiative to create multi-national large sample datasets freely available for the community. CAMELS-CL can be visualised from http://camels.cr2.cl and downloaded from https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.894885. © 2018 Author(s). | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | 10275606 | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/5817/2018/ | 5817-5846 | 22 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, chile; camelidae; arid regions; catchments; remote sensing; reservoirs (water); snow; time series; uncertainty analysis; catchment water balance; hydroclimatic conditions; in-situ measurement; multiple data sources; potential evapotranspiration; precipitation products; regional variation; snow water equivalent; catchment; climate conditions; data set; headwater; hydrometeorology; land cover; meteorological hazard; potential evapotranspiration; precipitation (climatology); remote sensing; runoff; streamflow; water budget; runoff | Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Advanced Mining Technology Center, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Sciences, Universidad de la Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Laboratory of Hydraulics Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland |
| Climate change governance in the anthropocene: Emergence of polycentrism in Chile | Arriagada R.; Aldunce P.; Blanco G.; Ibarra C.; Moraga P.; Nahuelhual L.; O'Ryan R.; Urquiza A.; Gallardo L. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Ciudades Resilientes; Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1525/elementa.329 | Multilateral efforts are essential to an effective response to climate change, but individual nations define climate action policy by translating local and global objectives into adaptation and mitigation actions. We propose a conceptual framework to explore opportunities for polycentric climate governance, understanding polycentricity as a property that encompasses the potential for coordinating multiple centers of semiautonomous decision-making. We assert that polycentrism engages a diverse array of public and private actors for a more effective approach to reducing the threat of climate change. In this way, polycentrism may provide an appropriate strategy for addressing the many challenges of climate governance in the Anthropocene. We review two Chilean case studies: Chile's Nationally Determined Contribution on Climate Change and the Chilean National Climate Change Action Plan. Our examination demonstrates that Chile has included a diversity of actors and directed significant financial resources to both processes. The central government coordinated both of these processes, showing the key role of interventions at higher jurisdictional levels in orienting institutional change to improve strategic planning and better address climate change. Both processes also provide some evidence of knowledge co-production, while at the same time remaining primarily driven by state agencies and directed by technical experts. Efforts to overcome governance weaknesses should focus on further strengthening existing practices for climate change responses, establishing new institutions, and promoting decision-making that incorporates diverse social actors and multiple levels of governance. In particular, stronger inclusion of local level actors provides an opportunity to enhance polycentric modes of governance and improve climate change responses. Fully capitalizing on this opportunity requires establishing durable communication channels between different levels of governance. © 2018 The Author(s). | Elementa | 23251026 | https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.329/ | art68 | 6 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; action plan; adaptive management; anthropocene; climate change; conceptual framework; decision making; environmental policy; financial system; governance approach; mitigation; strategic approach, chile; climate change; governance; polycentrism; public consultation | Center for Climate and Resilience Research, CR2, FONDAP15110009, Santiago, CL, United States; Departamento de Ecosistemas y Medioambiente, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, CL, United States; Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, CL, United States; Instituto de Historia y Ciencias Sociales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, CL, United States; Centro de Derecho Ambiental, Facultad de Derecho, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, CL, United States; Instituto de Economía Agraria, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, CL, United States; Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Santiago, CL, United States; Departamento de Antropología, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, CL, United States; Millennium Nucleus Center for the Socioeconomic Impact of Environmental Policies (CESIEP), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, CL, United States; Programa de Reducción de Riesgos y Desastres (CITRID), Santiago, CL, United States; Centro de Investigación en Dinámica de Ecosistemas Marinos de Altas Latitudes, IDEAL, FONDAP15150003, Santiago, CL, United States; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, CL, United States |
| Temporal and spatial evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates over different regions in Latin-America | Baez-Villanueva O.M.; Zambrano-Bigiarini M.; Ribbe L.; Nauditt A.; Giraldo-Osorio J.D.; Thinh N.X. | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.05.011 | In developing countries, an accurate representation of the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall is currently severely limited, therefore, satellite-based rainfall estimates (SREs) are promising alternatives. In this work, six state-of-the-art SREs (TRMM 3B42v7, TRMM 3B42RT, CHIRPSv2, CMORPHv1, PERSIANN-CDR, and MSWEPv2) are evaluated over three different basins in Latin-America, using a point-to-pixel comparison at daily, monthly, and seasonal timescales. Three continuous (root mean squared error, modified Kling-Gupta efficiency, and percent bias) and three categorical (probability of detection, false alarm ratio, and frequency bias) indices are used to evaluate the performance of the different SREs, and to assess if the upscaling procedure used, in CHIRPSv2 and MSWEPv2, to enable a consistent point-to-pixel comparison affects the evaluation of the SREs performance at different time scales. Our results show that for Paraiba do Sul in Brazil, MSWEPv2 presented the best performance at daily and monthly time scales, while CHIRPSv2 performed the best at these timescales over the Magdalena River Basin in Colombia. In the Imperial River Basin in Chile, MSWEPv2 and CHIRPSv2 performed the best at daily and monthly time scales, respectively. When the basins were evaluated at seasonal scale, CMORPHv1 performed the best for DJF and SON, TRMM 3B42v7 for MAM, and PERSIANN-CDR for JJA over Imperial Basin. MSWEPv2 performed the best over Paraiba do Sul Basin for all seasons and CHIRPSv2 showed the best performance over Magdalena Basin. The Modified Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE′) proved to be a useful evaluation index because it decomposes the performance of the SREs into linear correlation, bias, and variability parameters, while the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) is not recommended for evaluating SREs performance because it gives more weight to high rainfall events and its results are not comparable between areas with different precipitation regimes. On the other hand, CHIRPSv2 and MSWEPv2 presented different performance, for some study areas and time scales, when evaluated with their original spatial resolution (0.05° and 0.1, respectively) with respect to the evaluation resulting after applying the spatial upscaling (to a unified 0.25), showing that the upscaling procedure might impact the SRE performance. We finally conclude that a site-specific validation is needed before using any SRE, and we recommend to evaluate the SRE performance before and after applying any upscaling procedure in order to select the SRE that best represents the spatio-temporal precipitation patterns of a site. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. | Atmospheric Research | 01698095 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809517313029 | 34-50 | 213 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | colombia; magdalena basin; clock and data recovery circuits (cdr circuits); developing countries; efficiency; mean square error; pixels; precipitation (chemical); rain; satellites; time measurement; watersheds; chirpsv2; mswepv2; precipitation patterns; probability of detection; root mean squared errors; spatiotemporal variability; upscaling; validation of sres; climate modeling; image analysis; pixel; precipitation assessment; satellite data; spatial resolution; spatiotemporal analysis; trmm; upscaling; rain gages, chirpsv2; mswepv2; precipitation; satellite; upscaling influence; validation of sres | Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics (ITT), Technology Arts Sciences TH Köln, Cologne, Germany; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de la Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá, Colombia; Faculty of Spatial Planning, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany |
| The first 300-year streamflow reconstruction of a high-elevation river in Chile using tree rings | Barria P.; Peel M.C.; Walsh K.J.E.; Muñoz A. | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1002/joc.5186 | In central Chile, increasing demand for water and decreasing runoff volumes due to drier conditions have placed catchments in this zone under water stress. However, scarcity of observed data records increases the difficulty of planning future water supply. Instrumental records suggest a reduction in streamflow over the last 56 years. However, this change is not statistically significant and the lack of meteorological stations with long records in this mountainous region hampers a deeper analysis, motivating the use of tree rings to analyse whether these changes are part of a long-term trend. This work represents the first high-elevation runoff reconstruction in Chile using 300 years of tree ring chronologies of Araucaria araucana and Astroceudrus chilensis. The upper part of Biobío river melting season runoff (October–March) and pluvial season runoff (April–September) was reconstructed and analysed to investigate the influence of large-scale climatic drivers on runoff generation, current drought trends and to improve the understanding of climate variability in this region. We obtained positive correlations between the 20-year moving average of reconstructed pluvial season runoff and reconstructed Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is indicative of multi-decadal variability. We also found a negative correlation between the 11-year moving average of reconstructed melting season runoff and the PDO and positive correlations with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Important differences in the runoff variability of the upper and the lower part of the catchment were identified which are in part led by the influence of the large-scale climatic features that drive runoff generation in both regions. We found that the changes observed in the instrumental records are part of multi-decadal cycles led by the PDO and SAM for pluvial season runoff and melting season runoff, respectively. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society | International Journal of Climatology | 08998418 | http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5186 | 436-451 | 38 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; araucaria araucana; catchments; climate change; digital storage; drought; forestry; melting; stream flow; water supply; decadal variability; high elevation; meteorological station; negative correlation; pacific decadal oscillation; positive correlations; southern annular mode; tree-ring chronologies; chronology; decadal variation; hydrology; reconstruction; river; runoff; streamflow; tree ring; runoff, high-elevation hydrology; multi-decadal variability; runoff reconstruction | School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Centre for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile |
| Alternative approaches for estimating missing climate data: Application to monthly precipitation records in south-central Chile | Barrios A.; Trincado G.; Garreaud R. | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1186/s40663-018-0147-x | Background: Over the last decades interest has grown on how climate change impacts forest resources. However, one of the main constraints is that meteorological stations are riddled with missing climatic data. This study compared five approaches for estimating monthly precipitation records: inverse distance weighting (IDW), a modification of IDW that includes elevation differences between target and neighboring stations (IDWm), correlation coefficient weighting (CCW), multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural networks (ANN). Methods: A complete series of monthly precipitation records (1995–2012) from twenty meteorological stations located in central Chile were used. Two target stations were selected and their neighboring stations, located within a radius of 25 km (3 stations) and 50 km (9 stations), were identified. Cross-validation was used for evaluating the accuracy of the estimation approaches. The performance and predictive capability of the approaches were evaluated using the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), the percent bias (PBIAS), and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). For testing the main and interactive effects of the radius of influence and estimation approaches, a two-level factorial design considering the target station as the blocking factor was used. Results: ANN and MLR showed the best statistics for all the stations and radius of influence. However, these approaches were not significantly different with IDWm. Inclusion of elevation differences into IDW significantly improved IDWm estimates. In terms of precision, similar estimates were obtained when applying ANN, MLR or IDWm,andtheradiusof influence had a significant influence on their estimates, we conclude that estimates based on nine neighboring stations located within a radius of 50 km are needed for completing missing monthly precipitation data in regions with complex topography. Conclusions: It is concluded that approaches based on ANN, MLR and IDWm had the best performance in two sectors located in south-central Chile with a complex topography. A radius of influence of 50 km (9 neighboring stations) is recommended for completing monthly precipitation data. © The Author(s). 2018. | Forest Ecosystems | 20956355 | https://forestecosyst.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40663-018-0147-x | art28 | 5 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, artificial neural networks; climatological data; cross-validation; multiple linear regression | Escuela de Graduados, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Box 567, Valdivia, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Facultad de Ingeniería Forestal, Universidad del Tolima, Box 6299, Ibagué, Colombia; Instituto de Bosques y Sociedad, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Box 567, Valdivia, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations | Boisier J.P.; Alvarez-Garreton C.; Cordero R.R.; Damiani A.; Gallardo L.; Garreaud R.D.; Lambert F.; Ramallo C.; Rojas M.; Rondanelli R. | Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras; Ciudades Resilientes; Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1525/elementa.328 | The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-climate changes in Chile. Based on the analysis of long-term records (50+ years) of precipitation and streamflow, we confirm a tendency toward a dryer condition in central-southern Chile (30-48°S). We describe the geographical and seasonal character of this trend, as well as the associated large-scale circulation patterns. When a large ensemble of climate model simulations is contrasted to observations, anthropogenic forcing appears as the leading factor of precipitation change. In addition to a drying trend driven by greenhouse gas forcing in all seasons, our results indicate that the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion has played a major role in the summer rainfall decline. Although average model results agree well with the drying trend's seasonal character, the observed change magnitude is two to three times larger than that simulated, indicating a potential underestimation of future projections for this region. Under present-day carbon emission rates, the drying pathway in Chile will likely prevail during the next decades, although the summer signal should weaken as a result of the gradual ozone layer recovery. The trends and scenarios shown here pose substantial stress on Chilean society and its institutions, and call for urgent action regarding adaptation measures. © 2018 The Author(s). | Elementa | 23251026 | https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.328/ | art74 | 6 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; anthropogenic effect; carbon emission; climate modeling; drought; greenhouse gas; long-term change; ozone depletion; simulation; streamflow; trend analysis; vulnerability, chile; climate change; drought; drying trends; greenhouse gas and ozone depletion; southern annular mode | Center for Climate and Resilience Research, CR2, FONDAP 15110009, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Department of Physics, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Environment Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan; Department of Physical Geography, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios | Bozkurt D.; Rojas M.; Boisier J.P.; Valdivieso J. | Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1007/s10584-018-2246-7 | This study examines the projections of hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile (∼ 30–40° S) under a low and high emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). A gridded daily precipitation and temperature dataset based on observations is used to drive and validate the VIC macro-scale hydrological model in the region of interest. Historical and future simulations from 19 climate models participating in CMIP5 have been adjusted with the observational dataset and then used to make hydrological projections. By the end of the century, there is a large difference between the scenarios, with projected warming of ∼ + 1.2 °C (RCP2.6), ∼ + 3.5 °C (RCP8.5) and drying of ∼ − 3% (RCP2.6), ∼ − 30% (RCP8.5). Following the strong drying and warming projected in this region under the RCP8.5 scenario, the VIC model simulates decreases in annual runoff of about 40% by the end of the century. Such strong regional effect of climate change may have large implications for the water resources of this region. Even under the low emission scenario, the Andes snowpack is projected to decrease by 35–45% by mid-century. In more snowmelt-dominated areas, the projected hydrological changes under RCP8.5 go together with more loss in the snowpack (75–85%) and a temporal shift in the center timing of runoff to earlier dates (up to 5 weeks by the end of the century). The severity and frequency of extreme hydroclimatic events are also projected to increase in the future. The occurrence of extended droughts, such as the recently experienced mega-drought (2010–2015), increases from one to up to five events per 100 years under RCP8.5. Concurrently, probability density function of 3-day peak runoff indicates an increase in the frequency of flood events. The estimated return periods of 3-day peak runoff events depict more drastic changes and increase in the flood risk as higher recurrence intervals are considered by mid-century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, and by the end of the century under RCP8.5. © 2018, Springer Nature B.V. | Climatic Change | 01650009 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2246-7 | 131-147 | 150 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, andes; chile; climate change; drought; floods; image segmentation; probability density function; risk perception; runoff; daily precipitations; emission scenario; hydrological changes; hydrological modeling; low emission scenarios; recurrence intervals; region of interest; regional effects; air temperature; climate change; climate prediction; cmip; drought; extreme event; flood frequency; model validation; peak flow; precipitation (climatology); probability density function; runoff; scenario analysis; snowpack; climate models | Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Foehn Event Triggered by an Atmospheric River Underlies Record-Setting Temperature Along Continental Antarctica | Bozkurt D.; Rondanelli R.; Marín J.C.; Garreaud R. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1002/2017JD027796 | A record-setting temperature of 17.5°C occurred on 24 March 2015 at the Esperanza station located near the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). We studied the event using surface station data, satellite imagery, reanalysis data, and numerical simulations. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Antarctic Ice Shelf Image Archive provides clear evidence for disintegration and advection of sea ice, as well as the formation of melt ponds on the ice sheet surface at the base of the AP mountain range. A deep low-pressure center over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea and a blocking ridge over the southeast Pacific provided favorable conditions for the development of an atmospheric river with a northwest-southeast orientation, directing warm and moist air toward the AP, and triggering a widespread foehn episode. A control simulation using a regional climate model shows the existence of local topographically induced warming along the northern tip of the AP (∼60% of the full temperature signal) and the central part of the eastern AP (90% of the full temperature signal) with respect to a simulation without topography. These modeling results suggest that more than half of the warming experienced at Esperanza can be attributed to the foehn effect (a local process), rather than to the large-scale advection of warm air from the midlatitudes. Nevertheless, the local foehn effect also has a large-scale advection component, since the atmospheric river provides water vapor for orographic precipitation enhancement and latent heat release, which makes it difficult to completely disentangle the role of local versus large-scale processes in explaining the extreme event. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres | 2169897X | http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017JD027796 | 3871-3892 | 123 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | amundsen sea; antarctic peninsula; antarctica; bellingshausen sea; pacific ocean; pacific ocean (southeast); southern ocean; west antarctica; esperanza; advection; atmospheric moisture; climate change; climate modeling; extreme event; foehn; high temperature; ice shelf; meteorology; modis; regional climate; temperature, atmospheric river; climate variability; extreme high temperature; foehn wind; meteorology; regional climate modeling | Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Meteorology, University of Valparaiso, Valparaiso, Chile; Interdisciplinary Center for Atmospheric and Astro-statistical Studies, University of Valparaiso, Valparaiso, Chile |
| Tree rings reveal globally coherent signature of cosmogenic radiocarbon events in 774 and 993 CE | Büntgen U.; Wacker L.; Galván J.D.; Arnold S.; Arseneault D.; Baillie M.; Beer J.; Bernabei M.; Bleicher N.; Boswijk G.; Bräuning A.; Carrer M.; Ljungqvist F.C.; Cherubini P.; Christl M.; Christie D.A.; Clark P.W.; Cook E.R.; D’Arrigo R.; Davi N.; Eggertsson Ó.; Esper J.; Fowler A.M.; Gedalof Z.; Gennaretti F.; Grießinger J.; Grissino-Mayer H.; Grudd H.; Gunnarson B.E.; Hantemirov R.; Herzig F.; Hessl A.; Heussner K.-U.; Jull A.J.T.; Kukarskih V.; Kirdyanov A.; Kolář T.; Krusic P.J.; Kyncl T.; L... | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1038/s41467-018-06036-0 | Though tree-ring chronologies are annually resolved, their dating has never been independently validated at the global scale. Moreover, it is unknown if atmospheric radiocarbon enrichment events of cosmogenic origin leave spatiotemporally consistent fingerprints. Here we measure the 14C content in 484 individual tree rings formed in the periods 770–780 and 990–1000 CE. Distinct 14C excursions starting in the boreal summer of 774 and the boreal spring of 993 ensure the precise dating of 44 tree-ring records from five continents. We also identify a meridional decline of 11-year mean atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations across both hemispheres. Corroborated by historical eye-witness accounts of red auroras, our results suggest a global exposure to strong solar proton radiation. To improve understanding of the return frequency and intensity of past cosmic events, which is particularly important for assessing the potential threat of space weather on our society, further annually resolved 14C measurements are needed. © 2018, The Author(s). | Nature Communications | 20411723 | http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06036-0 | art3605 | 9 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | carbon 14; carbon isotope; chronology; concentration (composition); cosmogenic radionuclide; solar radiation; spatiotemporal analysis; tree ring; article; atmospheric radioactivity; chronology; proton radiation; radiation measurement; radiometric dating; space; spring; summer; weather, nan | Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, United Kingdom; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland; Global Change Research Institute CAS, Brno, 603 00, Czech Republic; Department of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, 611 37, Czech Republic; Laboratory for Ion Beam Physics, ETH Zürich, Zurich, CH-8093, Switzerland; Département de biologie, chimie et géographie, University of Québec in Rimouski, G5L 3A1, QC, Canada; School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen’s University, Belfast, BT7 1NN, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom; Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology Eawag, Dübendorf, CH-8600, Switzerland; CNR-IVALSA, Trees and Timber Institute, San Michele all′Adige, 38010, TN, Italy; Competence Center for Underwater Archaeology and Dendrochronology, Office for Urbanism, City of Zurich, Zürich, 8008, Switzerland; School of Environment, University of Auckland, Auckland, 1010, New Zealand; Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), Erlangen, 91058, Germany; Department Territorio e Sistemi Agro-Forestali, University of Padova, Legnaro (PD), 35020, Italy; Department of History, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-10691, Sweden; Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-10691, Sweden; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Universidad Austral de Chile, Casilla 567, Valdivia, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Blanc... |
| Dendrohydrology and water resources management in south-central Chile: Lessons from the Río Imperial streamflow reconstruction | Fernández A.; Muñoz A.; González-Reyes A.; Aguilera-Betti I.; Toledo I.; Puchi P.; Sauchyn D.; Crespo S.; Frene C.; Mundo I.; González M.; Vignola R. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.5194/hess-22-2921-2018 | Streamflow in south-central Chile (SCC, ĝ1/4 ĝ€37-42°ĝ€S) is vital for agriculture, forestry production, hydroelectricity, and human consumption. Recent drought episodes have generated hydrological deficits with damaging effects on these activities. This region is projected to undergo major reductions in water availability, concomitant with projected increases in water demand. However, the lack of long-term records hampers the development of accurate estimations of natural variability and trends. In order to provide more information on long-term streamflow variability and trends in SCC, here we report findings of an analysis of instrumental records and a tree-ring reconstruction of the summer streamflow of the Río Imperial ( ĝ1/4 ĝ€37°ĝ€40′ĝ€S-38°ĝ€50′ĝ€S). This is the first reconstruction in Chile targeted at this season. Results from the instrumental streamflow record ( ĝ1/4 ĝ€1940 onwards) indicated that the hydrological regime is fundamentally pluvial with a small snowmelt contribution during spring, and evidenced a decreasing trend, both for the summer and the full annual record. The reconstruction showed that streamflow below the average characterized the post-1980 period, with more frequent, but not more intense, drought episodes. We additionally found that the recent positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode has significantly influenced streamflow. These findings agree with previous studies, suggesting a robust regional signal and a shift to a new hydrological scenario. In this paper, we also discuss implications of these results for water managers and stakeholders; we provide rationale and examples that support the need for the incorporation of tree-ring reconstructions into water resources management. © Author(s) 2018. | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | 10275606 | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/2921/2018/ | 2921-2935 | 22 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, chile; drought; forestry; stream flow; accurate estimation; forestry production; hydrological regime; hydrological scenarios; southern annular mode; streamflow variability; tree-ring reconstruction; water resources management; climate signal; dendrochronology; drought; hydrological regime; paleohydrology; reconstruction; snowmelt; streamflow; water management; water resource; water resources | Departamento de Geografía, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Centro Transdisciplinario de Estudios Ambientales y Desarrollo Humano Sostenible (CEAM), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Dipartimento Territorio e Sistemi Agro-Forestali (TESAF), Università degli Studi di Padova, Agripolis, Italy; Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada; Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile, Chile; Instituto Argentino de Glaciología, Nivología and Ciencias Ambientales and Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina; Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile, Chile; Cátedra Latinoamericana en Decisiones Ambientales para El Cambio Global, Turrialba, Costa Rica |
| Record-breaking climate anomalies lead to severe drought and environmental disruption in western Patagonia in 2016 | Garreaud R.D. | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.3354/cr01505 | Traditionally a temperate and hyper-humid region, western Patagonia experienced its most severe drought during the summer and fall of 2016. Along with precipitation deficits larger than 50% there was a similar reduction in river discharge into coastal waters, a decline in vegetation productivity, excessive solar radiation at the surface, and frequent upwelling-favorable wind events offshore. The combination of these regional-scale anomalies seems to have set the stage for environmental disturbances that, although not new in western Patagonia, occurred with unprecedented magnitude, including severe urban air pollution episodes, large forest fires, and the worst ever recorded harmful algae bloom (HAB). The local climate anomalies were in turn related to the concomitant strong El Niño (through atmospheric teleconnections) and, to a lesser extent, anthropogenic climate change mediated by the positive polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and internal variability, as both modes weakened the westerlies. Dryer than present conditions are consistently projected for northern Patagonia during the 21st century as a consequence of anthropogenic increases in radiative forcing; superposition of El Niño events in this altered climate may result in a higher frequency of extreme droughts and environmental disruptions like those observed in 2016. © Inter-Research 2018 | Climate Research | 0936577X | http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v74/n3/p217-229/ | 217-229 | 74 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | climate change; environment; hab; harmful algal bloom; patagonia; sam; southern annular mode, nan | Department of Geophysics, Argentina; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, Chile |
| A plausible atmospheric trigger for the 2017 coastal El Niño | Garreaud R.D. | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1002/joc.5426 | The far eastern tropical Pacific experienced a rapid, marked warming in early 2017, causing torrential rains along the west coast of South America with a significant societal toll in Peru and Ecuador. This strong coastal El Niño was largely unpredicted, even a few weeks before its onset, and it developed differently from either central or eastern events. Here we provide an overview of the event, its impacts and concomitant atmospheric circulation. It is proposed that a remotely forced, sustained weakening of the free tropospheric westerly flow impinging the subtropical Andes leads to a relaxation of the southeasterly (SE) trades off the coast, which in turn may have warmed the eastern Pacific throughout the weakening of upwelling in a near-coastal band and the lessening of the evaporative cooling farther offshore. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society | International Journal of Climatology | 08998418 | http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.5426 | e1296-e1302 | 38 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | el niño; enso; flooding; peru; south america, andes; ecuador; pacific ocean; pacific ocean (tropical); peru; evaporative cooling systems; oil well flooding; atmospheric circulation; eastern pacific; eastern tropical pacific; enso; evaporative cooling; peru; south america; torrential rain; atmospheric circulation; coastal zone; el nino; el nino-southern oscillation; flooding; troposphere; westerly; nickel | Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile |
| The 2010–2015 Megadrought and its influence on the fire regime in central and south-central Chile | González M.E.; Gómez-González S.; Lara A.; Garreaud R.; Díaz-Hormazábal I. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1002/ecs2.2300 | Forest fire activity has increased in recent years in central and south-central Chile. Drought conditions have been associated with the increase of large wildfires, area burned and longer fire seasons. This study examines the influence of drought on fire regimes and discusses landscape management opportunities to decrease fire hazard. Specifically, we investigate the effect of the 2010–2015 Megadrought (MD) compared to 1990–2009 period on fire activity (fire-season length, number of fires and burned area across months, fire sizes, regions and vegetation cover types, simultaneity, and duration of fires) in central and south-central Chile (32°–39° S), using contemporary fire statistics derived from the Chilean Forest Service. For large fire events (>200 ha) the average season length increased by 67 d (44%), comparing 2010–2015 to 1990–2009. Earlier and later ignition dates resulted in extended fire seasons in MD years. During the MD, the number, area burned, simultaneity, and duration of large fires increased significantly compared to the control period, including the unprecedented occurrence of large fires during winter. The burned area in large fires increased in all vegetation types, during the MD compared to the control period, especially in the exotic plantation cover type. The regions that were most affected by fire (i.e., total area burned) during the MD were Maule, Bío-Bío, and Araucanía (35–39° S) that concentrate >75% of forest plantations in Chile. Although both maximum temperatures and precipitation are drivers of fire activity, a simple attribution analysis indicates that the sustained rainfall deficit during 2010–2015 was the most critical factor in the enhanced fire activity. Future climate change predictions indicate more recurrent, intense, and temporally extended droughts for central and south-central Chile. Under this scenario, land-use planning and fire and forest management strategies must promote a more diverse and less flammable landscape mosaic limiting high load, homogenous, and continuous exotic plantations. © 2018 The Authors. | Ecosphere | 21508925 | http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/ecs2.2300 | arte02300 | 9 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, drought; fire regimes; fire-prone vegetation; fire-season length | Laboratorio de Ecología de Bosques, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Casilla, Valdivia, 567, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Blanco Encalada, Santiago, 2002, Chile; Departamento de Biología-IVAGRO, Universidad de Cádiz, Puerto Real, 11510, Spain; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Blanco Encalada, Santiago, 2002, Chile; Departamento de Planificación y Desarrollo, Corporación Nacional Forestal, Paseo Bulnes, Santiago, 259, Chile |
| Hydroclimatic conditions trigger record harmful algal bloom in western Patagonia (summer 2016) | León-Munõz J.; Urbina M.A.; Garreaud R.; Iriarte J.L. | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1038/s41598-018-19461-4 | A harmful algal bloom (HAB) of the raphidophyta alga Pseudochattonella cf. verruculosa during the 2016 austral summer (February-March) killed nearly 12% of the Chilean salmon production, causing the worst mass mortality of fish and shellfish ever recorded in the coastal waters of western Patagonia. The HAB coincided with a strong El Ninõ event and the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode that altered the atmospheric circulation in southern South America and the adjacent Pacific Ocean. This led to very dry conditions and higher than normal solar radiation reaching the surface. Using time series of atmospheric, hydrologic and oceanographic data we show here that an increase in surface water temperature and reduced freshwater input resulted in a weakening of the vertical stratification in the fjords and sounds of this region. This allowed the advection of more saline and nutrient-rich waters, ultimately resulting in an active harmful algal bloom in coastal southern Chile. © 2018 The Author(s). | Scientific Reports | 20452322 | http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-19461-4 | art1330 | 8 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, development and aging; microalga, chile; climate; harmful algal bloom; microalgae; algal bloom; chile; climate; growth | Interdisciplinary Center for Aquaculture Research, Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Zoologiá, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Oceanográficas, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, 4070386, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Región Metropolitana, 8370449, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Región Metropolitana, 8370449, Chile; Instituto de Acuicultura, Centro de Investigación Dinámica de Ecosistemas Marinos de Altas Latitudes, Universidad Austral de Chile, Puerto Montt, Chile; Centro COPAS-Sur Austral, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro de Investigación en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia, Coyhaique, 449, Chile |
| Effect of climate on tree growth in the Pampa biome of Southeastern South America: First tree-ring chronologies from Uruguay | Lucas C.; Puchi P.; Profumo L.; Ferreira A.; Muñoz A. | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1016/j.dendro.2018.10.004 | Tree-ring research in the highland tropics and subtropics represents a major frontier for understanding climate-growth relationships. Nonetheless, there are many lowland regions – including the South American Pampa biome – with scarce tree ring data. We present the first two tree-ring chronologies for Scutia buxifolia in subtropical Southeastern South America (SESA), using 54 series from 29 trees in two sites in northern and southern Uruguay. We cross-dated annual rings and compared tree growth from 1950 to 2012 with regional climate variability, including rainfall, temperature and the Palmer Drought Severity Index – PDSI, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Overall, ring width variability was highly responsive to climate signals linked to water availability. For example, tree growth was positively correlated with accumulated rainfall in the summer-fall prior to ring formation for both chronologies. Summer climate conditions were key for tree growth, as shown by a negative effect of hot summer temperatures and a positive correlation with PDSI in late austral summer. The El Niño phase in late spring/early summer favored an increase in rainfall and annual tree growth, while the La Niña phase was associated with less rainfall and reduced tree growth. Extratropical climate factors such as SAM had an equally relevant effect on tree growth, whereby the positive phase of SAM had a negative effect over radial growth. These findings demonstrate the potential for dendroclimatic research and climate reconstruction in a region with scarce tree-ring data. They also improve the understanding of how climate variability may affect woody growth in native forests – an extremely limited ecosystem in the Pampa biome. © 2018 Elsevier GmbH | Dendrochronologia | 11257865 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1125786518300249 | 113-122 | 52 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | argentina; pampas; rio de la plata; south america; uruguay; scutia buxifolia; biochronology; biome; climate change; climate conditions; climate effect; clonal growth; dendrochronology; dendroclimatology; el nino-southern oscillation; endogenous growth; growth; rainfall; reconstruction; regional climate; subtropical region; temperature effect; tree ring; woody plant, uruguay; subtropical dendrochronology, dendroclimatology; río de la plata basin; scutia buxifolia | CENUR Litoral Norte, Universidad de la República, Paysandú, 60000, Uruguay; Universitá degli Studi di Padova, Dip. TeSAF, Legnaro, 35020, PD, Italy; Centro Universitario de Rivera, Universidad de la Republica, Uruguay; Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay; Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile |
| The influence of river discharge on nutrient export and phytoplankton biomass off the Central Chile Coast (33°-37°S): Seasonal cycle and interannual variability | Masotti I.; Aparicio-Rizzo P.; Yevenes M.A.; Garreaud R.; Belmar L.; Farías L. | Zonas Costeras; Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.3389/fmars.2018.00423 | Using in situ hydro-chemical data and MODIS-SeaWiFS ocean color images as a proxy of river plumes and phytoplankton biomass from 2000 to 2014, this study documents the temporal co-variability of river discharge, plume area, nitrate and phosphate export and phytoplankton biomass in the coastal waters off Central Chile (33°-37°S). Five major rivers (Maipo, Mataquito, Maule, Itata, and Biobío) drain into this region with annual mean discharge ranging from 120 to 1000 m3 s-1. River discharge and coastal plume area present a marked seasonal cycle, reaching maximum values during the winter rainy season (June-September). Export of riverine nutrients also peaks in winter, leading to an increase in phytoplankton biomass within the plumes that can be twice larger than the background values in coastal areas away from the river mouths. Wintertime river discharge, plume area and nutrient export are also correlated at interannual time scales. During a recent extended dry period (2010-2014), river discharges, plume areas and nutrient export clearly decreased by about 50% compared to historical values, reducing significantly the size of the chlorophyll pool within plumes off Central Chile during winter. The potential impacts of droughts are discussed in terms of coastal ecology and primary production, a highly relevant issue considering the projections of a dry climate over Central Chile in the future. Systematic evidence of mega-drought effects upon coastal productivity still does not exist, but it remains a priority to further investigate and quantify these impacts. © 2018 Masotti, Aparicio-Rizzo, Yevenes, Garreaud, Belmar and Farías. | Frontiers in Marine Science | 22967745 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00423 | art423 | 5 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, central chile; drought; nutrient export; phytoplankton biomass; river discharge; satellite remote sensing | Facultad de Ciencias del Mar y de Recursos Naturales, Universidad de Valparaíso, Viña del Mar, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Oceanography, Faculty of Natural and Oceanographic Sciences, University of Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Physics and Mathematics Sciences, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Onset and Evolution of Southern Annular Mode-Like Changes at Centennial Timescale | Moreno P.I.; Vilanova I.; Villa-Martínez R.; Dunbar R.B.; Mucciarone D.A.; Kaplan M.R.; Garreaud R.D.; Rojas M.; Moy C.M.; De Pol-Holz R.; Lambert F. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Ciudades Resilientes; Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1038/s41598-018-21836-6 | The Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) are the surface expression of geostrophic winds that encircle the southern mid-latitudes. In conjunction with the Southern Ocean, they establish a coupled system that not only controls climate in the southern third of the world, but is also closely connected to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and CO2 degassing from the deep ocean. Paradoxically, little is known about their behavior since the last ice age and relationships with mid-latitude glacier history and tropical climate variability. Here we present a lake sediment record from Chilean Patagonia (51°S) that reveals fluctuations of the low-level SWW at mid-latitudes, including strong westerlies during the Antarctic Cold Reversal, anomalously low intensity during the early Holocene, which was unfavorable for glacier growth, and strong SWW since ∼7.5 ka. We detect nine positive Southern Annular Mode-like events at centennial timescale since ∼5.8 ka that alternate with cold/wet intervals favorable for glacier expansions (Neoglaciations) in southern Patagonia. The correspondence of key features of mid-latitude atmospheric circulation with shifts in tropical climate since ∼10 ka suggests that coherent climatic shifts in these regions have driven climate change in vast sectors of the Southern Hemisphere at centennial and millennial timescales. © 2018 The Author(s). | Scientific Reports | 20452322 | http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-21836-6 | art3458 | 8 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, antarctica; article; climate change; cold stress; glaciation; holocene; lake sediment; latitude; southern hemisphere; tropic climate; writing | Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; CONICET, Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales, Buenos Aires, Argentina; GAIA, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; School of Earth Energy and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, United States; Department of Geochemistry, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Geology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Departamento de Geografiá Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Modulation of fire regimes by vegetation and site type in Southwestern Patagonia Since 13 ka | Moreno P.I.; Vilanova I.; Villa-Martínez R.P.; Francois J.P. | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.3389/fevo.2018.00034 | The degree to which vegetation and site type have influenced fire regimes through the Holocene has not been investigated in detail in the temperate ecosystems of southern Patagonia. Here we present a first attempt using a paired-basin approach to study the evolution of fire regimes in sectors dominated by humid Nothofagus forests and the xeric Patagonian steppe in the Magallanes region of Chilean Patagonia (51°S). We analyzed sediment cores from two small lakes and a bog located within the same climate zone on opposite sides of the forest-steppe ecotone, ~28 km apart. The position of this biological boundary east of the Andes is controlled by the strength and position of the southern westerly winds, which constitute the sole source of precipitation throughout western Patagonia. Our results indicate that fires have occurred in the study region repeated times over the last ~13,000 years at bi- and tridecadal timescales. Sectors currently dominated by Patagonian steppe feature high frequency and low magnitude of local fires, and vice versa in humid forests. Climate-driven expansion of Nothofagus scrubland/woodland into steppe environments over the last ~4,200 years increased the magnitude and lowered the frequency of fire events, culminating with peak Nothofagus abundance, fire magnitude and frequency during the last millennium. We also detect divergences between lake-based vs. bog-based paleofire histories among paired sites located within the Patagonian steppe, ~12 km apart, which we attribute to local burning of the bog at times of lowered water table. This divergence suggests to us that bog-based vegetation and fire histories exacerbate a local, azonal, signal blurring extra-local or regional regimes, thus accounting for some discrepancies in the Quaternary paleovegetation/paleoclimate literature of southern Patagonia. © 2018 Moreno, Vilanova, Villa-Martínez and Francois. | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution | 2296701X | http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fevo.2018.00034/full | art34 | 6 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | fire regime; lake sediments; paleoclimate; patagonia; vegetation dynamics, nan | Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; CONICET-Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales, Buenos Aires, Argentina; CIGA, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; Departamento de Ciencias Geográficas Universidad de Playa Ancha, Valparaíso, Chile |
| Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change | Nolan C.; Overpeck J.T.; Allen J.R.M.; Anderson P.M.; Betancourt J.L.; Binney H.A.; Brewer S.; Bush M.B.; Chase B.M.; Cheddadi R.; Djamali M.; Dodson J.; Edwards M.E.; Gosling W.D.; Haberle S.; Hotchkiss S.C.; Huntley B.; Ivory S.J.; Kershaw A.P.; Kim S.-H.; Latorre C.; Leydet M.; Lézine A.-M.; Liu K.-B.; Liu Y.; Lozhkin A.V.; McGlone M.S.; Marchant R.A.; Momohara A.; Moreno P.I.; Müller S.; Otto-Bliesner B.L.; Shen C.; Stevenson J.; Takahara H.; Tarasov P.E.; Tipton J.; Vincens A.; Weng C.; Xu ... | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1126/science.aan5360 | Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity. 2017 © The Authors. | Science | 00368075 | http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aan5360 | 920-923 | 361 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, biodiversity; climate change; biodiversity; climate change; ecosystem service; glacial-interglacial cycle; global climate; greenhouse gas; last glacial; terrestrial ecosystem; vegetation cover; article; atmosphere; biodiversity; carbon footprint; climate change; ecosystem; biodiversity | Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, 85721, AZ, United States; School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 48109, MI, United States; Department of Biosciences, University of Durham, Durham, DH1 3LE, United States; Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, 98195, WA, United States; National Research Program, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, 20192, VA, United States; Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, 84112, UT, United States; Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, 32901, FL, United States; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UMR 5554, Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier, Université Montpellier, Bat. 22, CC061, Place Eugène Bataillon, Montpellier, 34095, France; Aix Marseille Université,, Avignon Université, CNRS, IRD, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie, Aix-en Provence, 13545, France; Palaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre (PANGEA), University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2052, NSW, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, 71002, Shaanxi, China; College of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Alaska–Fairbanks, Fairbanks, 99775, AK, United States; Institute for Biodiversi... |
| The meanings of participation for climate change in Chile | Sapiains Arrué,Rodolfo;Ugarte Caviedes,Ana María;Aldunce,Paulina; | Agua y Extremos; Zonas Costeras; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 2018 | 10.11144/Javeriana.ayd21-41.spcc | This article analyzes the different meanings of the concept of participation, to move towards a more inclusive model of climate change governance in Chile. For this, a bibliographic review is presented that discusses different epistemologies, theories and definitions of participation, with emphasis on the difficulties for its implementation in the Chilean context. Subsequently, the citizen participation mechanisms deployed in the development of existing climate change governance instruments in Chile are reviewed. Types of participation used are distinguished and experiences conducted from civil society and academia are identified. Finally, the scope and limitations of the participation models implemented are discussed and the importance of increasing the influence of civil society and improving existing mechanisms is highlighted. This is explained by a climate change scenario that will possibly require a greater number of actors involved in decision-making, to anticipate possible divisions in the face of the development of more radical adaptation or mitigation actions, and that at the same time will demand higher levels of responsibility. , commitment and action of citizenship. | Ambiente y Desarrollo | 2346-2876, 0121-7607 | http://revistas.javeriana.edu.co/index.php/ambienteydesarrollo/article/view/22189 | 43-60 | 21 | Thomson Reuters ISI | | |
| Climate variability and forest fires in central and south-central Chile | Urrutia-Jalabert R.; González M.E.; González-Reyes Á.; Lara A.; Garreaud R. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1002/ecs2.2171 | This paper evaluates the relationship between fire occurrence (number and burned area) and climate variability (precipitation and maximum temperatures) across central and south-central Chile (32°–43° S) during recent decades (1976–2013). This region sustains the largest proportion of the Chilean population, contains ecologically important remnants of endemic ecosystems, the largest extension of forest exotic plantations, and concentrates most of the fire activity in the country. Fire activity in central Chile was mainly associated with above-average precipitation during winter of the previous year and with dry conditions during spring to summer. The later association was particularly strong in the southern, wetter part of the study region. Maximum temperature had a positive significant relationship with burned area across the study region, with stronger correlations toward the south. Fires in central Chile were significantly related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, through rainfall anomalies during the year previous to the fire season. The Antarctic Oscillation during winter through summer was positively related to fires across the study area due to drier/warmer conditions associated with the positive polarity of this oscillation. Climate change projections for the region reveal an all-season decrease in precipitation and increases in temperature, that may likely result in an increment of the occurrence and the area affected by fires, as it has been observed during a multi-year drought afflicting central Chile since 2010. © 2018 The Authors. | Ecosphere | 21508925 | http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/ecs2.2171 | arte02171 | 9 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, antarctic oscillation; climate change; el niño–southern oscillation (enso); exotic plantations; forest fires; mediterranean forests; temperate forests | Laboratorio de Dendrocronologia y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Independencia 641, Valdivia, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR), 2 (squared), Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, Chile; Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Independencia 641, Valdivia, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad de Chile, Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, Chile |
| Terrain-trapped airflows and orographic rainfall along the coast of Northern California. Part II: Horizontal and vertical structures observed by a scanning doppler radar | Valenzuela R.A.; Kingsmill D.E. | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0227.1 | This study documents the mean properties and variability of kinematic and precipitation structures associated with orographic precipitation along the coast of Northern California in the context of terrain-trapped airflows (TTAs). TTAs are defined as relatively narrow air masses that consistently flow in close proximity and approximately parallel to an orographic barrier. Seven land-falling winter storms are examined with observations from a scanning X-band Doppler radar deployed on the coast at Fort Ross, California. Additional information is provided by a 915-MHz wind-profiling radar, surface meteorology, a GPS receiver, and balloon soundings. The composite kinematic structure during TTA conditions exhibits a significant horizontal gradient of wind direction from the coast to approximately 50 km offshore and a low-level jet (LLJ) that surmounts a weaker airflow offshore corresponding to the TTA, with a zone of enhanced precipitation evident between ~5 and 25 km offshore and oriented nearly parallel to the coastline. Conversely, the composite kinematic structure during NO-TTA conditions exhibits a smaller offshore horizontal gradient of wind direction and precipitation structures are generally enhanced within ~15 km of the coastline. Interstorm variability analysis reveals significant variations in kinematic structures during both TTA and NO-TTA conditions, whereas significant variations in precipitation structures are only evident during TTA conditions. The interstorm analysis also illustrates more clearly how LLJ vertical structures evident during NO-TTA conditions exhibit ascent along the coast and over the coastal mountains, which is in contrast to TTA conditions where the ascent occurs offshore and over the TTA. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. | Monthly Weather Review | 00270644 | http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0227.1 | 2381-2402 | 146 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | channel flows; coastal meteorology; kinematics; orographic effects; precipitation; radars/radar observations, california; united states; atmospheric movements; channel flow; doppler radar; global positioning system; kinematics; landforms; precipitation (chemical); storms; coastal meteorologies; horizontal gradients; kinematic structures; orographic effects; orographic precipitation; orographic rainfalls; precipitation structure; radars/radar observations; airflow; channel flow; coastal zone; doppler radar; hydrometeorology; orographic effect; precipitation assessment; rainfall; terrain; wind direction; precipitation (meteorology) | Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Geophysics and Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Impacts of atmospheric rivers on precipitation in Southern South America | Viale M.; Valenzuela R.; Garreaud R.D.; Ralph F.M. | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1175/JHM-D-18-0006.1 | This study quantifies the impact of atmospheric rivers (ARs) on precipitation in southern South America. An AR detection algorithm was developed based on integrated water vapor transport (IVT) from 6-hourly CFSR reanalysis data over a 16-yr period (2001-16). AR landfalls were linked to precipitation using a comprehensive observing network that spanned large variations in terrain along and across the Andes from 27° to 55°S, including some sites with hourly data. Along the Pacific (west) coast, AR landfalls are most frequent between 38° and 50°S, averaging 35-40 days yr-1. This decreases rapidly to the south and north of this maximum, as well as to the east of the Andes. Landfalling ARs are more frequent in winter/spring (summer/fall) to the north (south) of ~43°S. ARs contribute 45%-60% of the annual precipitation in subtropical Chile (37°-32°S) and 40%-55% along the midlatitude west coast (37°-47°S). These values significantly exceed those in western North America, likely due to the Andes being taller. In subtropical and midlatitude regions, roughly half of all events with top-quartile precipitation rates occur under AR conditions. Median daily and hourly precipitation in ARs is 2-3 times that of other storms. The results of this study extend knowledge of the key roles of ARs on precipitation, weather, and climate in the South American region. They enable comparisons with other areas globally, provide context for specific events, and support local nowcasting and forecasting. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. | Journal of Hydrometeorology | 1525755X | http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0006.1 | 1671-1687 | 19 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | pacific ocean; pacific ocean (south); south america; atmospheric transport; extratropical cyclone; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; topographic effect; water vapor, extratropical cyclones; precipitation; south america; south pacific ocean; topographic effects; water vapor | Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales, CCT-CONICET, Mendoza, Argentina; Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Centro del Clima y la Resiliencia, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States |
| Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium | Xoplaki E.; Luterbacher J.; Wagner S.; Zorita E.; Fleitmann D.; Preiser-Kapeller J.; Sargent A.M.; White S.; Toreti A.; Haldon J.F.; Mordechai L.; Bozkurt D.; Akçer-Ön S.; Izdebski A. | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1007/s10745-018-9995-9 | This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095–1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260–1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion (1580–1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history. © 2018, The Author(s). | Human Ecology | 03007839 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10745-018-9995-9 | 363-379 | 46 | Thomson Reuters SSCI | levant; mediterranean region; anthropology; climate effect; climate modeling; cmip; middle ages; paleoclimate; proxy climate record; reconstruction, cmip5 models; complex societies; early modern period; eastern mediterranean; first millennium; middle ages; model/data comparison; palaeoclimatology; resilience | Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Geography, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Giessen, Germany; Centre of International Development and Environmental Research, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Giessen, Germany; Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany; Department of Archaeology and Centre for Past Climate Change, School of Human and Environmental Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Institute for Medieval Research/Division of Byzantine Research, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria; History Department, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; History Department, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; Geological Engineering Department, Mugla Sitki Kocman University, Mugla, Turkey; Byzantine History Department, Institute of History, Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Krakow, Poland; School of Historical Studies, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, NJ, United States; Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, Jena, Germany |
| Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for precipitation forecasting in an Andean region with complex topography | Yáñez-Morroni G.; Gironás J.; Caneo M.; Delgado R.; Garreaud R. | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.3390/atmos9080304 | The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been successfully used in weather prediction, but its ability to simulate precipitation over areas with complex topography is not optimal. Consequently, WRF has problems forecasting rainfall events over Chilean mountainous terrain and foothills, where some of the main cities are located, and where intense rainfall occurs due to cutofflows. This work analyzes an ensemble of microphysics schemes to enhance initial forecasts made by the Chilean Weather Agency in the front range of Santiago. We first tested different vertical levels resolution, land use and land surface models, as well as meteorological forcing (GFS/FNL). The final ensemble configuration considered three microphysics schemes and lead times over three rainfall events between 2015 and 2017. Cutofflow complex meteorological characteristics impede the temporal simulation of rainfall properties. With three days of lead time, WRF properly forecasts the rainiest N-hours and temperatures during the event, although more accuracy is obtained when the rainfall is caused by a meteorological frontal system. Finally, the WSM6 microphysics option had the best performance, although further analysis using other storms and locations in the area are needed to strengthen this result. © 2018 by the authors. | Atmosphere | 20734433 | http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/8/304 | art304 | 9 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | andean watershed; complex topography; flash floods; rainfall; wrf forecast, land use; rain; topography; complex topographies; flash flood; land surface models; meteorological forcing; mountainous terrain; precipitation forecasting; temporal simulation; weather research and forecasting models; atmospheric modeling; computer simulation; ensemble forecasting; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; temporal analysis; topography; urban atmosphere; weather forecasting; weather forecasting | Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago, 7820436, Chile; Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales (CIGIDEN), Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable (CEDEUS), Centro Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global UC (CCG-UC), Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago, 7820436, Chile; Dirección Meteorológica de Chile (DMC), Portales 3450, Estación Central, Santiago, 9170018, Chile; Departamento de Geofísica, Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia, Universidad de Chile, Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago Centro, Santiago, 8370449, Chile |
| The CAMELS-CL dataset - links to files. PANGAEA, https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.894885 | Alvarez,Camila;Mendoza,Pablo A.;Boisier,Juan P.;Addor,Nans;Galleguillos,Mauricio;Zambrano-Bigiarini,Mauricio;Lara,Antonio;Puelma,Cristóbal;Cortes,Gonzalo;Garreaud,R. D.;McPhee,James;Ayala,Alvaro; | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1594/PANGAEA.894885 | | PANGAEA - Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science | | https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.894885 | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Tres niños sorprendentes | Garreaud,R.; | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | | Aunque el fenómeno de El Niño–Oscilación del
Sur (ENOS) se desarrolla en el Pacífico tropical, las
alteraciones climáticas durante sus fases extremas (El
Niño y La Niña) se extienden a gran parte del planeta
(Diaz & Markgraf, 2000). No es sorprendente entonces
que ENOS ha atraído la atención de la comunidad
científica por más de un siglo, culminando en una teoría
que describe su desarrollo y decaimiento (e.g., Neelin
et al., 1998), justificando el establecimiento de la red
de observaciones TAO-Triton y motivando el desarrollo
de la predicción climática estacional en base a modelos
estadísticos y dinámicos.
No obstante estos avances científicos y tecnológico y
nuestra capacidad de predecir la ocurrencia de eventos
Tres Niños
Sorprendentes
Dr. René Garreaud S.
SUBDIRECTOR DEL CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEL CLIMA Y LA RESILIENCIA (CR2).
Doctor en Ciencias Atmosféricas de la Universidad de Washington, EE.UU., Magister en Geofísica
e Ingeniero de la Universidad de Chile. Es autor de más de 80 artículos publicados en revistas
internacionales y su investigación está enfocada en la dinámica del clima y meteorología de
Sudamérica. Dicta regularmente cursos de pre y posgrado en Climatología, y ha supervisado 10 postdocs.
Se ha desempeñado también como presidente del consejo superior de ciencias (FONDECYT
Chile) y presidente de la comisión de evaluación de la Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas de
la Universidad de Chile.
El Niño y La Niña es aun limitada, similar a la que
presentaban los pronósticos del tiempo hace unos 30
años atrás (Barnston et al., 2012). En la última década se
ha reconocido además la gran diversidad de eventos,
los que no solo difieren en su intensidad y estructura
sino que también en los mecanismos subyacentes (e.g.,
Takahashi et al., 2011; Takahashi & Dewitte 2016). Así,
ENOS no deja de sorprendernos y algunos eventos
exhiben rasgos especiales o se desarrollan sin indicios.
Ese fue el caso de tres eventos cálidos en los últimos
años: el fallido evento del 2014, El Niño Godzilla del
2015/16 y el intenso El Niño costero del verano de 2017
(Fig. 1). En este trabajo presentamos una descripción
de estos eventos, con énfasis en El Niño costero del
2017 y su posible forzante atmosférico. | Boletín Técnico Instituto de Geofísica del Perú (IGP) | | http://intranet.igp.gob.pe/sysppr/results/result_71/Boletin_Tecnico_PPR_El_Nino_IGP_201801.pdf | 5-9 | 5 | Not Indexed | | |
| First ANDEX Workshop | Garreaud,René;Poveda,German; | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | | | GEWEX News | | http://dgf.uchile.cl/rene/PUBS/GEWEX_News_Nov2018_red.pdf | 13-15 | 29 | Not Indexed | | |
| Simulaciones climáticas regionales | Rojas,Maisa;Gallardo,Laura;Bozkurt,Deniz; | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 2018 | | El Ministerio del Medio Ambiente contrató en 2016 el presente estudio a un equipo multidisciplinario del Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2 a través de la Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas de la Universidad de Chile, el que fue desarrollado durante el año 2017. El propósito del proyecto fue generar proyecciones climáticas para Chile a través de la modelación climática a escala regional. Dicha información busca aportar a la correcta estimación de la vulnerabilidad del país, y está disponible en una plataforma interactiva que permite apoyar el diseño de políticas públicas. Este informe de síntesis presenta los resultados del análisis de los estudios de vulnerabilidad socio-ambiental del país, y plantea una propuesta conceptual y un protocolo de estandarización para este tipo de estudios, además de algunas consideraciones generales y recomendaciones basadas en la revisión de la literatura existente sobre la vulnerabilidad de distintos sectores y ámbitos territoriales y tecnológicos del país frente al cambio climático, así como las principales vulnerabilidades institucionales y brechas de conocimiento. | | | https://cambioclimatico.mma.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Simulaciones-climaticas-regionales-2018.pdf | 27 | | Not Indexed | | |
| Temporal and spatial evaluation of long-term satellite-based precipitation products across the complex topographical and climatic gradients of Chile | Zambrano-Bigiarini M. | Agua y Extremos | 2018 | 10.1117/12.2513645 | Satellite-based rainfall estimates (SRE) have become a promising data source to overcome some limitations of ground-based rainfall measurements, in particular for hydrological and other environmental applications. This study evaluates the spatial and temporal performance of four long-term SRE products (TMPA 3B42v7, CHIRPSv2, MSWEPv1.1 and MSWEPv2.2) over the complex topography and climatic gradients of Chile. Time series of precipitation measured at 371 stations are compared against the corresponding grid cell of each SRE (in their original spatial resolution) at different temporal scales (daily, monthly, seasonal, annual). The modified Kling-Gupta efficiency along with its three individual components were used to assess the performance of each SRE, while two categorical indices (POD, and fBIAS) were used to evaluate the skill of each SRE to correctly capture different precipitation intensities. Results revealed that all SREs performed best in Central-Southern Chile (32.18-36.4°S), in particular at lowand mid-elevation zones (0-1000 m a.s.l.). Seasonally, all products performed best in terms of KGE0 during the wet autumn and winter seasons (MAM-JJA) compared to summer (DJF). In addition, all SREs were able to correctly identify no rain events, but during rainy days all SREs that did not use a local dataset of precipitation to recalibrate their estimates presented a low skill in providing an accurate classification of different precipitation intensities. Overall, MSWPEPv22 showed the best performance at all time scales and country-wide, due to the use of a Chilean dataset of daily data for calibrating its precipitation estimates, making it a good candidate for hydrological applications in Chile. Finally, we conclude that when the in situ precipitation dataset used in the evaluation of different SREs does not cover the headwaters of the catchments, the obtained performances should only be considered as first guess about how well a given SRE represent the real amount of water in an area. © COPYRIGHT SPIE. | Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering | 0277786X | https://www.spiedigitallibrary.org/conference-proceedings-of-spie/10782/2513645/Temporal-and-spatial-evaluation-of-long-term-satellite-based-precipitation/10.1117/12.2513645.full | art1078202 | 10782 | Not Indexed | catchments; classification (of information); petroleum reservoir evaluation; precipitation (chemical); remote sensing; 3b42; chile; chirps; fbias; mswep; rain, 3b42; chile; chirps; fbias; mswep; pod; precipitation; rainfall | Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de la Frontera, Temuco, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile |
| Local perception of drought impacts in a changing climate: The mega-drought in central Chile | Aldunce P.; Araya D.; Sapiain R.; Ramos I.; Lillo G.; Urquiza A.; Garreaud R. | Ciudades Resilientes; Agua y Extremos | 2017 | 10.3390/su9112053 | Droughts are a recurrent and complex natural hazard whose frequency and magnitude are expected to increase with climate change. Despite the advances in responding and adapting to droughts (with the development of new policies, for example), droughts continue to cause serious impacts and suffering. Developing well-targeted public policies requires further research on adaptation. Specifically, understanding the public perception of drought can help to identify drivers of and barriers to adaptation and options. This research seeks to understand the public perception of drought in central Chile in order to inform adaptation-related policies and decision-making processes. This study focused on the Mega-drought, which was a protracted dry spell afflicting central Chile since 2010. © 2017 by the authors. | Sustainability (Switzerland) | 20711050 | http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/11/2053 | art2053 | 9 | Thomson Reuters SCIE, SSCI | adaptation policy and practice; chile; climate change impacts; drought; perception, chile; climate change; climate effect; decision making; drought; natural hazard; perception; policy development; social policy | Department of Environmental Science and Natural Resources, University of Chile, Av. Santa Rosa 11.315, La Pintana, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, 8820808, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, CR2, Blanco Encalada 2002, 4o Piso, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, 8370449, Chile; Disaster Risk Reduction Program, Vice-Rectorate for Research and Development, University of Chile, Diagonal Paraguay 265, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, 8820808, Chile; Department of Psychology, University of Chile, Av. Capitán Ignacio Carrera Pinto 1045, ñuñoa, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, 7750000, Chile; Department of Anthropology, University of Chile, Av. Capitán Ignacio Carrera Pinto 1045, ñuñoa, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, 7750000, Chile; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Blanco Encalada 2002, 4o Piso, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, 8370449, Chile |
| Modeling study of biomass burning plumes and their impact on urban air quality; a case study of Santiago de Chile | Cuchiara G.C.; Rappenglück B.; Rubio M.A.; Lissi E.; Gramsch E.; Garreaud R.D. | Agua y Extremos | 2017 | 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.07.002 | On January 4, 2014, during the summer period in South America, an intense forest and dry pasture wildfire occurred nearby the city of Santiago de Chile. On that day the biomass-burning plume was transported by low-intensity winds towards the metropolitan area of Santiago and impacted the concentration of pollutants in this region. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) is implemented to investigate the biomass-burning plume associated with these wildfires nearby Santiago, which impacted the ground-level ozone concentration and exacerbated Santiago's air quality. Meteorological variables simulated by WRF/Chem are compared against surface and radiosonde observations, and the results show that the model reproduces fairly well the observed wind speed, wind direction air temperature and relative humidity for the case studied. Based on an analysis of the transport of an inert tracer released over the locations, and at the time the wildfires were captured by the satellite-borne Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the model reproduced reasonably well the transport of biomass burning plume towards the city of Santiago de Chile within a time delay of two hours as observed in ceilometer data. A six day air quality simulation was performed: the first three days were used to validate the anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, and the last three days (during and after the wildfire event) to analyze the performance of WRF/Chem plume-rise model within FINNv1 fire emission estimations. The model presented a satisfactory performance on the first days of the simulation when contrasted against data from the well-established air quality network over the city of Santiago de Chile. These days represent the urban air quality base case for Santiago de Chile unimpacted by fire emissions. However, for the last three simulation days, which were impacted by the fire emissions, the statistical indices showed a decrease in the model performance. While the model showed a satisfactory evidence that wildfires plumes that originated in the vicinity of Santiago de Chile were transported towards the urban area and impacted the air quality, the model still underpredicted some pollutants substantially, likely due to misrepresentation of fire emission sources during those days. Potential uncertainties may include to the land use/land cover classifications and its characteristics, such as type and density of vegetation assigned to the region, where the fire spots are detected. The variability of the ecosystem type during the fire event might also play a role. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd | Atmospheric Environment | 13522310 | http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1352231017304430 | 79-91 | 166 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; metropolitana; santiago [metropolitana]; air quality; atmospheric humidity; atmospheric temperature; biomass; image reconstruction; meteorological instruments; pollution; radiometers; radiosondes; satellite imagery; weather forecasting; ozone; anthropogenic and biogenic emissions; atmospheric model; biomass-burning; ground level ozone concentration; moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer; plume rise; weather research and forecasting models; wrf/chem; air quality; anthropogenic effect; atmospheric modeling; atmospheric plume; biogenic emission; biomass burning; forecasting method; metropolitan area; modis; radiosonde; urban pollution; air quality; air temperature; article; biomass; circadian rhythm; combustion; humidity; land use; pasture; plume; priority journal; sensitivity analysis; simulation; summer; urban area; wind; fires, atmospheric modeling; biomass burning; plume rise model; wrf/chem | University of Houston, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Houston, TX, United States; Facultad de Quimica y Biologia, Universidad Santiago de Chile, USACH, Av. L. B. O'Higgins 3363, Santiago, 9160000, Chile; Centro Para el Desarrollo de la Nanociencia y Nanotecnología (CEDENNA-USACH), Santiago, 9160000, Chile; Facultad de Ciencia, Depto Física, Universidad Santiago de Chile, USACH, Santiago, 9160000, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 8320000, Chile |
| The 2010-2015 megadrought in central Chile: Impacts on regional hydroclimate and vegetation | Garreaud R.D.; Alvarez-Garreton C.; Barichivich J.; Pablo Boisier J.; Christie D.; Galleguillos M.; LeQuesne C.; McPhee J.; Zambrano-Bigiarini M. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2017 | 10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017 | Since 2010 an uninterrupted sequence of dry years, with annual rainfall deficits ranging from 25 to 45 %, has prevailed in central Chile (western South America, 30-38° S). Although intense 1- or 2-year droughts are recurrent in this Mediterranean-like region, the ongoing event stands out because of its longevity and large extent. The extraordinary character of the so-called central Chile megadrought (MD) was established against century long historical records and a millennial tree-ring reconstruction of regional precipitation. The largest MD-averaged rainfall relative anomalies occurred in the northern, semi-arid sector of central Chile, but the event was unprecedented to the south of 35° S. ENSO-neutral conditions have prevailed since 2011 (except for the strong El Niño in 2015), contrasting with La Niña conditions that often accompanied past droughts. The precipitation deficit diminished the Andean snowpack and resulted in amplified declines (up to 90 %) of river flow, reservoir volumes and groundwater levels along central Chile and westernmost Argentina. In some semi-arid basins we found a decrease in the runoff-to-rainfall coefficient. A substantial decrease in vegetation productivity occurred in the shrubland-dominated, northern sector, but a mix of greening and browning patches occurred farther south, where irrigated croplands and exotic forest plantations dominate. The ongoing warming in central Chile, making the MD one of the warmest 6-year periods on record, may have also contributed to such complex vegetation changes by increasing potential evapotranspiration. We also report some of the measures taken by the central government to relieve the MD effects and the public perception of this event. The understanding of the nature and biophysical impacts of the MD helps as a foundation for preparedness efforts to confront a dry, warm future regional climate scenario. © 2017 Author(s). | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | 10275606 | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/hess-2017-191/ | 6307-6327 | 21 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | nan, andes; argentina; chile; mediterranean region; climatology; drought; groundwater; nickel; rain; exotic forest plantations; historical records; irrigated cropland; potential evapotranspiration; precipitation deficits; tree-ring reconstruction; vegetation productivity; western south america; agricultural land; drought; el nino; el nino-southern oscillation; groundwater; historical record; la nina; multireservoir system; plantation forestry; potential evapotranspiration; precipitation (climatology); rainfall-runoff modeling; regional climate; river flow; shrubland; snowpack; tree ring; vegetation dynamics; vegetation | Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile; Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile; Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Advanced Mining Technology Center, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Sciences, Universidad de la Frontera, Temuco, Chile |
| Research on climate change policies and rural development in Latin America: Scope and gaps | Locatelli B.; Aldunce P.; Fallot A.; Le Coq J.-F.; Sabourin E.; Tapasco J. | Agua y Extremos | 2017 | 10.3390/su9101831 | Research on climate change policies can contribute to policy development by building an understanding of the barriers faced in policy processes, and by providing knowledge needed throughout policy cycles. This paper explores the thematic coverage of research on climate change policies related to rural areas, rural development, and natural resource management in Latin America. A three-tier framework is proposed to analyse the selected literature. The results show that research studies have focussed on the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from forests, and adaptations to climate change in agriculture. There is little policy research on other vulnerable sectors (e.g., water and health) and emitting sectors (e.g., energy and industry) in the context of rural development. Our analysis highlights the various research gaps that deserve increased scientific attention, including: cross-sector approaches, multi-level governance, and the stages of policy adoption, implementation and evaluation. In addition, the selected literature has a limited contribution to theoretical discussions in policy sciences. © 2017 by the authors. | Sustainability (Switzerland) | 20711050 | http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/10/1831 | art1831 | 9 | Thomson Reuters SCIE, SSCI | latin america; adaptive management; climate change; environmental policy; forest edge; greenhouse gas; natural resource; policy development; policy implementation; research work; resource management; rural area; rural development, adaptation; agriculture; forest; mitigation; natural resources; policy research | Agricultural Research for Development, CIRAD, Montpellier, 34398, France; Center for International Forestry Research, CIFOR, 12 Lima, Peru; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Department of Environmental Science and Resource Management, University of Chile, Santiago, 8820000, Chile; International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, 76520000, Colombia; Center for Sustainable Development, University of Brasília, Brasilia, 70910-900, Brazil |
| The Chilean Coastal Orographic Precipitation Experiment: Observing the influence of microphysical rain regimes on coastal orographic precipitation | Massmann A.K.; Minder J.R.; Garreaud R.D.; Kingsmill D.E.; Valenzuela R.A.; Montecinos A.; Fults S.L.; Snider J.R. | Agua y Extremos | 2017 | 10.1175/JHM-D-17-0005.1 | The Chilean Coastal Orographic Precipitation Experiment (CCOPE) was conducted during the austral winter of 2015 (May-August) in the Nahuelbuta Mountains (peak elevation 1.3 km MSL) of southern Chile (38°S). CCOPE used soundings, two profiling Micro Rain Radars, a Parsivel disdrometer, and a rain gauge network to characterize warm and ice-initiated rain regimes and explore their consequences for orographic precipitation. Thirty-three percent of foothill rainfall fell during warm rain periods, while 50% of rainfall fell during ice-initiated periods. Warm rain drop size distributions were characterized by many more and relatively smaller drops than ice-initiated drop size distributions. Both the portion and properties of warm and ice-initiated rainfall compare favorably with observations of coastal mountain rainfall at a similar latitude in California. Orographic enhancement is consistently strong for rain of both types, suggesting that seeding from ice aloft is not a requisite for large orographic enhancement. While the data suggest that orographic enhancement may be greater during warm rain regimes, the difference in orographic enhancement between regimes is not significant. Sounding launches indicate that differences in orographic enhancement are not easily explainable by differences in low-level moisture flux or nondimensional mountain height between the regimes. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. | Journal of Hydrometeorology | 1525755X | http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0005.1 | 2723-2743 | 18 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; cloud microphysics; coastal zone; marine atmosphere; orographic effect; precipitation (climatology); precipitation assessment; size distribution; stratiform cloud, cloud microphysics; coastal meteorology; drop size distribution; mountain meteorology; orographic effects; stratiform clouds | Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States; Department of Geophysics and Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Water Research Center for Agriculture and Mining, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States |
| Potencial de los anillos de crecimiento de pilgerodendron uviferum para el estudio histórico de las iglesias de Chiloé, patrimonio de la humanidad; [The potential use of pilgerodendron uviferum tree-ring dating in the historical interpretation of the churches of Chiloé, World Heritage] | Puchi P.; Muñoz A.A.; González M.E.; Abarzúa A.; Araya K.; Towner R.; Fitzek R.; Holz A.; Stahle D. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2017 | 10.4067/S0717-92002017000100012 | The churches on Chiloé Island are the oldest wood structures in Chile. Chiloé islanders adapted European colonial techniques and developed unique regional construction styles when building these UNESCO-recognized community and religious centers. Although these historical treasures are preserved, much of the construction history of these churches remains unknown. Tree-ring dating is a proven archeological dating method used to identify the logging dates of wood used for constructiong historical buildings. The majority of churches on Chiloé were constructed using Pilgerodendron uviferum (“ciprés de las Guaitecas”) wood. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the potential use of this species to date timber found at churches in Vilupulli and Ichuac. Timber sections from both structures were successfully cross-dated using three regional multi-century long P. uviferum tree-ring site chronologies located in the Chiloé region (two from the island and one from the nearby Andes region). Samples from pillars located in the tower of the Vilupulli church contained 311 and 181 tree-rings, respectively, while four samples from floor beams in the Ichuac church contained 79, 89, 97 and 135 annual growth. Timber used to build the Vilupulli church tower cross-dates to 1918 and corroborates colloquial knowledge that the structure was built in the early 20th century. Dates obtained from the floor beams in theIchuac church range from 1920 to1929, and contradict the colloquial thinking that the structure was built at the end of the 19th century, though these could represent material used in a later restoration not previously recorded in Ichuac’s local history. These findings confirm that P. uviferum presents strong capabilities for further use in tree ring dating of important historical structures located in the temperate region of Southern Chile. © 2017, Universidad Austral de Chile. All rights reserved. | Bosque | 03048799 | http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-92002017000100012&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en | 109-121 | 38 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | dendroarchaeology; historical structures; pilgerodendron uviferum, nan | Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Instituto de Geografía, Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Estudios Ambientales, Avenida Brasil 2241, Valparaíso, Chile; Universidad Austral de Chile, Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Valdivia, Chile; Universidad Austral de Chile, Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Valdivia, Chile; Fundación Amigos de las Iglesias de Chiloé, Ancud, Chile; University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, AZ, United States; Portland State University, Department of Geography, Portland, United States; University of Arkansas, United States; Centro del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2, Chile |
| Anatomic anomalies in annual tree-rings of Austrocedrus chilensis (D. Don) Pic.-Serm. et Bizzarri in its northern distribution range; [Anomalías anatómicas en anillos de crecimiento anuales de Austrocedrus chilensis (D. Don) Pic.-Serm. et Bizzarri en el norte de su rango de distribución] | Rojas-Badilla M.; Álvarez C.; Velásquez-Álvarez G.; Hadad M.; Quesne C.L.; Christie D.A. | Agua y Extremos | 2017 | 10.4067/S0717-66432017000200269 | Tree-ring anatomical anomalies have received little attention in southern South American trees, however they can contain valuable intra-annual environmental information. This study addressed for the first time the three most frequent tree-ring anomalies recorded in the northern and oldest known Austrocedrus chilensis forest in central Chile (32-35°S). Three anatomic anomalies described were: partially absent rings, intra-annual bands and frost rings. Partially absent rings resulted from cambial inactivity during a complete growing period and require dendrochronological tools to be detected. Intra-annual bands are consequence of the abundance-shortage of environmental resources during the growing season and can be detected by examining the undefined late-wood boundaries. Frost rings, are caused by extreme low temperatures and are characterized by collapsed cells in the tree-ring growth. Results indicate that the northern most population exhibited the highest rate of absent rings, while the occurrence of intra-annual bands seems to be rather minor in the study area. Finally, frost rings are registered mainly in the younger trees in all three studied sites. These results suggest the potential for future spatio-temporal studies that examine the frequency of these anatomical anomalies in A. chilensis chronologies along its wide geographical distribution. This will complement the current environmental information recorded by its growth rates. © 2017, Universidad de Concepcion. All rights reserved. | Gayana - Botanica | 00165301 | http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-66432017000200269&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en | 269-281 | 74 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | absent rings; dendrochronology; frost rings; intra-annual bands; wood anatomy, nan | Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Casilla 567, Valdivia, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR), DGF FCFM. Universidad de Chile, Blanco Encalada 2002, 4° Piso, Chile; Departamento de Dendrocronología e Historia Ambiental, Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales, IANIGLA, C.C. 330, Mendoza, 5500, Argentina |
| Climate change and resilience of deciduous Nothofagus forests in central–east Chilean Patagonia over the last 3200 years | Simi E.; Moreno P.I.; Villa-Martínez R.; Vilanova I.; de Pol-Holz R. | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Agua y Extremos | 2017 | 10.1002/jqs.2948 | We examine the response of Nothofagus forests to climate change and disturbance regimes over the last 3200 years near Coyhaique (45°S), central–east Chilean Patagonia, using fine-resolution pollen and charcoal records from lake sediment cores. Closed-canopy deciduous Nothofagus forests have dominated the region with little variation until the arrival of Chilean–European settlers, suggesting a predominance of cool-temperate and wet conditions. Within this state we identify centennial-scale episodes of forest fragmentation, increase in littoral macrophytes and volcanic/paleofire disturbance between 2700 and 3000 cal a BP, 2200 and 2500 cal a BP and over the last ∼250 years, which we interpret as intervals with negative hydrologic balance. Natural variability caused little impact on the physiognomy and composition of the vegetation in pre-European time, in contrast to the accelerated shift that started during the late 19th century associated with deforestation, homogenization and synchronization of ecosystem changes at the landscape level, and spread of exotic plant species brought by Chilean and European settlers during a warm/dry interval. The resilience of deciduous Nothofagus forests to natural disturbance regimes and climate change was exceeded by large-scale human disturbance since the late 19th century by fire, timber exploitation and livestock grazing. These disturbances caused an ecosystem shift towards artificial meadows and scrublands with frequent high-magnitude fires. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Journal of Quaternary Science | 02678179 | http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/jqs.2948 | 845-856 | 32 | Thomson Reuters SCIE | chile; patagonia; nothofagus; climate variation; deciduous forest; disturbance; fire history; holocene; human activity; paleoclimate; paleoenvironment; tephra, human disturbance; nothofagus forests; paleofires; resilience; tephras | Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Instituto Milenio de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Universidad de Chile, Chile; GAIA-Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; CONICET, Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales Bernardino Rivadavia, Buenos Aires, Argentina |
| Memoria institucional 2013 - 2017 | | Agua y Extremos; Zonas Costeras; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | 2017 | | | | | https://www.cr2.cl/memoria-institucional-cr2-2013-2017/ | | | Not Indexed | | |
| Informe de devolución Valle del Aconcagua, Primera Parte: Prácticas de adaptación al cambio climático: Sequía | Aldunce,P.;Lillo,G.;Araya,D.;Maldonado,P.;Ramos,I; | Agua y Extremos | 2016 | | Uno de los principales desafíos que enfrenta la sociedad actual es el cambio climático, que ya se comienza a sentir y se proyecta en impactos como el
aumento de la temperatura media, derretimiento de
nieve y glaciares, cambios en la intensidad y temporalidad de la lluvia, disminución de las reservas de agua
dulce superficiales y de la recarga de acuíferos, olas
de calor, entre otros1.
El Valle del Aconcagua no es ajeno a esta nueva realidad climática y se enfrenta a retos que requieren del
trabajo permanente, comprometido e informado de
sus habitantes para adaptarse a los efectos del cambio climático, de modo de asegurar el bienestar presente y futuro2.
En el presente documento se entregan los resultados
del trabajo colectivo realizado con distintos actores
sociales del Valle del Aconcagua, respecto de los mecanismos y prácticas desarrolladas para adaptarse a
la sequía, así como qué podemos aprender de estas
prácticas y cómo podemos fortalecerlas a través del
aprendizaje social para aumentar las capacidades
adaptativas y de resiliencia. | | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/devolucion-aconcagua.pdf | 1-15 | | Not Indexed | | |
