Distributed parameter identification for the Navier–Stokes equations for obstacle detection | Inverse Problems | Aguayo, J.; Bertoglio, C.; Osses, A. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1088/1361-6420/ad1133 | https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1361-6420/ad1133 | art015012 | Vol: 40.0 Issue: 1.0 | 02665611 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | We present a parameter identification problem for a scalar permeability field and the maximum velocity in an inflow, following a reference profile. We utilize a modified version of the Navier–Stokes equations, incorporating a permeability term described by the Brinkman’s Law into the momentum equation. This modification takes into account the presence of obstacles on some parts of the boundary. For the outflow, we implement a directional do-nothing condition as a means of stabilizing the backflow. This work extends our previous research published in (Aguayo et al 2021 Inverse Problems 37 025010), where we considered a similar inverse problem for a linear Oseen model with do-nothing boundary conditions on the outlet and numerical simulations in 2D. Here we consider the more realistic case of Navier–Stokes equations with a backflow correction on the outflow and 3D simulations of the identification of a more realistic tricuspid cardiac valve. From a reference velocity that could have some noise or be obtained in low resolution, we define a suitable quadratic cost functional with some regularization terms. Existence of minimizers and first and second order optimality conditions are derived through the differentiability of the solutions of the Navier–Stokes equations with respect to the permeability and maximum velocity in the inflow. Finally, we present some synthetic numerical test based of recovering a 2D and 3D shape of a cardiac valve from total and local velocity measurements, inspired from 2D and 3D MRI. © 2024 Institute of Physics Publishing. All rights reserved. |
HESS Opinions: The unsustainable use of groundwater conceals a "Day Zero" | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | Alvarez-Garreton, C.; Boisier, J.; Garreaud, R.; González, J.; Rondanelli, R.; Gayó, E.; Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. | 2024 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes; Zonas Costeras | 10.5194/hess-28-1605-2024 | https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1605-2024 | 1605-1616 | Vol: 28.0 Issue: 7.0 | 10275606 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Water scarcity is a pressing global issue driven by increasing water demands and changing climate conditions. Based on novel estimates of water availability and water use in Chile, we examine the challenges and risks associated with groundwater (GW) withdrawals in the country's central-north region (27-35°ĝ€¯S), where extreme water stress conditions prevail. As total water use within a basin approaches the renewable freshwater resources, the dependence on GW reserves intensifies in unsustainable ways. This overuse has consequences that extend beyond mere resource depletion, manifesting into environmental degradation, societal conflict, and economic costs. We argue that the "Day Zero"scenario, often concealed by the uncertain attributes of GW resources, calls for a reconsideration of water allocation rules and a broader recognition of the long-term implications of unsustainable GW use. Our results offer insights for regions worldwide facing similar water scarcity challenges and emphasize the importance of proactive and sustainable water management strategies. © 2024 Camila Alvarez-Garreton et al. |
Systemic modeling strategies in public policy: an appraisal from literature | Environmental Science & Policy | Billi, M.; Allendes, A.; Jiliberto, R.; Ramos-Jiliberto, R.; Salinas, B.; Urquiza, A. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103668 | https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103668 | 103668 | Vol: 153.0 | 14629011 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Contemporary society has grown increasingly dependent on the integration of knowledge for decision-making. In this context, systemic modeling is acknowledged as a straightforward tool for representing and analyzing complex problems. To address how systemic modeling is being conducted to guide and support public policy-making, this study offers a brief synthesis of the literature on systemic modeling oriented to help public policy decision-making. The results are compared to three principles for good systemic modeling to support public policy, established by the authors: the model must a) be readable and manageable —to a basic level— by non-experts, b) require as little quantitative data as possible, and c) not generate spurious or ambiguous readings of their content or their outputs. To identify modeling patterns the models were subjected to a content analysis under eleven different categories. To depict the possible co-occurrence of these analyzed categories in order to describe different types of modeling, a multiple correspondence analysis was performed. We found different modeling patterns with a marked trend to use system modeling as a performative device to let emerging cognitively a new entity, the structure of a complex problem. Regarding our proposal for modeling public policy problems, it can be said that the modeling strategies that fit better with the proposed principles are those that were identified as qualitative and oriented to public policy. © 2024 Elsevier Ltd |
A pioneering approach to measure increased resilience to face climate change: insights from the Race to Resilience campaign | Environmental Research Communications | Billi, M.; Bórquez, R.; Varela, J.; Aldunce, P.; Aspee, N.; Beauchamp, E.; Berríos, P.; Cuevas, M.; Loboguerrero, A.; Mason Bustos, F.; Patwardhan, A.; Rojas, M. | 2024 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6d37 | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad6d37 | art095006 | Vol: 6.0 Issue: 9.0 | 25157620 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | This paper illustrates a methodology to measure the impact of resilience-building actions on the increased resilience of people and natural systems to face climate change, developed and field-tested around the Race to Resilience Campaign. Despite increasing acknowledgment of the need for robust methodologies and indicators to monitor and evaluate efforts across adaptation planning and implementation, and provide credibility, accountability and transparency to such actions, there is still a lack of sufficiently standardized and agreed upon metrics able to capture the effect of resilience-building actions. The proposal illustrated in this manuscript offers a pioneering approach for high-level tracking, monitoring and evaluation of resilience-building efforts of non-state actors, based on two complementing sets of metrics: depth metrics measure the degree to which an action is generating a change to fundamental conditions which can demonstrably be related to increasing resilience; while magnitude metrics offer a quantification of the beneficiaries that are affected by these changes. Underlying both stand the Resilience Attributes: properties which can be soundly associated with triggering resilience across different systems, and which can then be used to assess increased resilience ‘by proxy’: that is, by seeing how an action sets forth changes in properties commonly associated with resilience. These Attributes were identified based on updated scientific literature and co-construction exercises with global experts. The integration of Depth and Magnitude indices, adjusted by a Confidence Index evaluating data reliability, allows to estimate the overall contribution of a set of actions on increasing resilience against climate challenges. Based on the above, a possible Monitoring & Evaluation cycle is proposed, and an illustration is offered on two case studies from the Race to Resilience campaign. Key strengths, lessons learned and insights are summarized to stimulate the global discussion, in the context of the Global Stocktake and Global Goal on Adaptation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. |
Transition in action: toward a social theory of the governance of transitions | Frontiers in Sociology | Billi, M.; Zurbriggen, C.; Urquiza, A.; Allendes, A. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.3389/fsoc.2024.1206050 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2024.1206050 | art1206050 | Vol: 9.0 | 22977775 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | This article explores how a re-interpretation of the socio-technical, socio-ecological and transition design approaches to transition from the point of view of Niklas Luhmann’s general systems theory of society. The need to understand and promote changes that include a technological and ecological dimension has led to different approaches, such as socio-technical or socio-environmental approaches, to incorporate links with society. While these approaches often include sociological insights, they rarely offer a general understanding of how these are embedded into society. We need a new environmental sociology that helps catalyze change processes with a collectively reorganized society, empowering more radically transformative actions to change the current structures and processes that have led us to where we are today. The article offers a cross-sectional look at the socio-ecological and socio-technical systems literature, specifically for what concerns their understanding of the ‘systems’ in transition and how they can be governed, and re-interpret it from the theoretical lens of the deep sociological knowledge, which refers to the profound understanding of social systems and their dynamics, embedded in Luhmann’s theory of social systems. From here, we suggest the second-order coupling for a sociologically grounded understanding of the interactions that comprise socio-ecological and socio-technical systems, heterogeneous and almost self-organizing assemblies of social, technical, and natural elements and processes. At the same time, third-order couplings are analyzed, focused on governance, relationships between operations, and structures mediated by a deliberate attempt to ensure coherence and coordination against the autonomy and heterogeneity of socio-techno-ecological systems. Therefore, this manuscript offers a deeper conceptual and methodological understanding of socio-techno-ecological couplings and systems in the context of sustainability transformation and gives insights into its governance. Copyright © 2024 Billi, Zurbriggen, Urquiza and Allendes. |
Territorial transitions in Latin America: a dialogue between social systems theory and socio-technical systems approaches | Cybernetics and Human Knowing | Billi, M.; Zurbriggen, C.; Urquiza, A.; Borquez, R.; Allendes, A. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | | https://chkjournal.com/node/485 | 153–174 | Vol: 31 Issue: 1-2 | 0907-0877 | Not indexed | | English | |
Reconstruction of glaciers in the western boundary of the Altiplano (18.5°-19°S): Singularities and insights on potential drivers of past advances | Quaternary Science Advances | Gallardo, M.; Otto, J.; Gayo, E.; Sitzia, L. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.qsa.2023.100158 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qsa.2023.100158 | art100158 | Vol: 13 | 26660334 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | | English | Today, glaciers in the western Altiplano are very scarce, even on peaks exceeding 6000 m. In this mostly ice-free landscape, however, moraines and other glacial deposits are commonly found attesting to quite different climate conditions that favored the advance of glaciers in the past. Although other areas of the Altiplano have been commonly accounted for regarding paleoclimate reconstructions, western Altiplano has been often overlooked. Here we present a detailed map of glacial landforms and a paleoglacier reconstruction from a test area in the western Altiplano between 18.5° and 19°S. We reconstructed regional equilibrium line altitudes (ELA) for several moraine stages, representing extensive past glacier advances in the region. During a prominent and ubiquitous ‘Principal Moraine (PM)’ stage glaciers from most peaks and all orientations advanced to altitudes of up to 4000 m asl. Reconstructed PM ELAs along 90 valleys range from 4400 to 5000 m asl. ELA distribution reveals a strong aspect-dependency at the western boundary of the Altiplano, with ELAs 300 m lower on west-facing glaciers than east-facing glaciers. The coincidence of such steep gradient with a prominent NW-SE ridge accounts for topographic control on the precipitation and thus in the advance of glaciers along the western boundary of the Altiplano. To the east, ELAs from the peaks towering the Altiplano are comparable to ELAs from east-facing glaciers at the western Altiplano boundary but show little to no aspect-dependency. Since these patterns cannot be solely explained by increased moisture advection from the Amazon basin, we suspect that western-sourced moisture associated with increased frequency of cold fronts and cut-off events played an important role in the glacier dynamics at this latitude. Nevertheless, further investigations are required to evaluate the relative role of both precipitation regimes on the glacier dynamics from the westernmost Altiplano. © 2023 The Authors |
Opinion: Strengthening research in the Global South - atmospheric science opportunities in South America and Africa | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Garland, R.; Altieri, K.; Dawidowski, L.; Gallardo, L.; Mbandi, A.; Rojas, N.; Touré, N. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/acp-24-5757-2024 | https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5757-2024 | 5757-5764 | Vol: 24.0 Issue: 10.0 | 16807316 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | To tackle the current pressing atmospheric science issues, as well as those in the future, a robust scientific community is necessary in all regions across the globe. Unfortunately, this does not yet exist. There are many geographical areas that are still underrepresented in the atmospheric science community, many of which are in the Global South. There are also larger gaps in the understanding of atmospheric composition, processes, and impacts in these regions. In this opinion, we focus on two geographical areas in the Global South to discuss some common challenges and constraints, with a focus on our strengths in atmospheric science research. It is these strengths, we believe, that highlight the critical role of Global South researchers in the future of atmospheric science research. © 2024 Copernicus Publications. All rights reserved. |
Towards understanding human-environment feedback loops: the Atacama Desert case | Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences | Gayo, E.; Lima, M.; Gurruchaga, A.; Estay, S.; Santoro, C.; Latorre, C.; McRostie, V. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1098/rstb.2022.0253 | https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0253 | 20220253 | Vol: 379 Issue: 1893 | 14712970 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | The overall trajectory for the human-environment interaction has been punctuated by demographic boom-and-bust cycles, phases of growth/overshooting as well as of expansion/contraction in productivity. Although this pattern has been explained in terms of an interplay between population growth, social upscaling, ecosystem engineering and climate variability, the evoked demographic-resource-complexity mechanisms have not been empirically tested. By integrating proxy data for population sizes, palaeoclimate and internal societal factors into empirical modelling approaches from the population dynamic theory, we evaluated how endogenous (population sizes, warfare and social upscaling) and exogenous (climate) variables module the dynamic in past agrarian societies. We focused on the inland Atacama Desert, where populations developed agriculture activities by engineering arid and semi-arid landscapes during the last 2000 years. Our modelling approach indicates that these populations experienced a boom-and-bust dynamic over the last millennia, which was coupled to structure feedback between population sizes, hydroclimate, social upscaling, warfare and ecosystem engineering. Thus, the human-environment loop appears closely linked with cooperation, competition, limiting resources and the ability of problem-solving. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'. |
Population dynamics and cultural niche construction during the Late Holocene in a mediterranean ecosystem (central Chile, 32°S−36°S) | Holocene | Godoy-Aguirre, C.; Frugone-Álvarez, M.; Gayo, E.; Campbell, R.; Lima, M.; Maldonado, A.; Latorre, C. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1177/09596836231225722 | https://doi.org/10.1177/09596836231225722 | 509-518 | Vol: 34.0 Issue: 5.0 | 09596836 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Understanding socio-ecological systems over the long term can shed light on past adaptive strategies in environmentally sensitive regions. Central Chile is an emblematic case study for mediterranean ecosystems, where a progressive and sustained population increase began approximately 2000 years ago alongside significant landscape changes. In this work we analyzed regional paleo-demographic trends by compiling a new database of archaeological dates over the last 3000 years, and integrating population dynamics theory with an analysis of the spatio-temporal variation of regional cultural stages. Results show three moments of marked acceleration in population growth: just before agricultural adoption, during the Archaic Period (c. 700-300 BCE); during the second half of the ECP (500–900 CE); and during the Late Intermediate Period (1200–1400 CE). We also identified periods of deceleration in per capita growth rates, although population size continued to increase (300 BCE−500 CE, 900–1200 CE and after 1400 CE). These large shifts in the per capita growth rates coincide with major cultural changes associated with social and economic aspects. The pulses of major occupation show in general terms a more intensive use of the valleys as the population size increased, although the remaining ecosystems never ceased to be occupied with different economic and symbolic emphases. © The Author(s) 2024. |
Modeling and scenario building for climate change adaptation planning: The case of large mining in Chile | Environmental Development | Jiliberto Herrera, R.; Ramos-Jiliberto, R.; Dintrans, E.; Caro, A.; Espinoza, L.; Billi, M.; Valenzuela, M. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101089 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101089 | 101089 | Vol: 52.0 | 22114645 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | en | The mining sector in Chile is a strategic industrial sector for the country. Existing evidence shows that it faces several serious climate change threats; precipitation and flooding, droughts, heatwaves, among others. This scene put pressure on the government and the industry to develop efficient adaptation plans. To date, adaptation plans are designed under the rather linear paradigm of predict-then-act or the impact-lea approach as they are characterized in the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Literature and the IPCC reports have identified the limits of those planning paradigms showing the relevance of adaptation barriers or enabling conditions, which should be considered as intrinsic part of the planning problem. In methodological terms, planning for climate change risks implies an enriched adaptation plan problem, previously characterized only by an operative climate risk management, that must be described at the beginning of the decision-making process. In this study, our objective is to contribute to the climate change adaptation planning of large-scale mining in Chile. The study is based on a climate change adaptation planning approach that overcomes the limitations of the current paradigm. In doing so, we start from the understanding that what emerges as an object of analysis from adding to the climate risks their enabling managing conditions is a social system. The social system whose function is that social climate risk management takes place. Therefore, we call it the Social Management System for Adaptation to Climate Change (SMSACC). As such the SMSACC should be the adaptation planning key object. In the first place we modeled that system applying a qualitative system methodology and then we developed it into a mathematical model based on graph theory, in particular the signed digraphs. This allows us to simulate two types of intervention on the enlarged object of analysis of the large mining adaptation plan. On the one hand, we carried out a future scenario analysis based on prospective tools which enables us to understand the system's answer to different future behavior of its environment, including climate change. On the other hand, we simulate different strategic interventions options on the system, which facilitates understanding the system's reaction under different public policy approaches. The modeling and simulation results provided an insightful understanding of the dilemma of social adaptation management of large mining in Chile, and as such they are useful input for the planning process. © 2024 Elsevier B.V. |
Positive feedbacks in deep-time transitions of human populations | Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences | Lima, M.; Gayo, E.; Estay, S.; Gurruchaga, A.; Robinson, E.; Freeman, J.; Latorre, C.; Bird, D. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1098/rstb.2022.0256 | https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0256 | 20220256 | Vol: 379 Issue: 1893 | 14712970 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | Abrupt and rapid changes in human societies are among the most exciting population phenomena. Human populations tend to show rapid expansions from low to high population density along with increased social complexity in just a few generations. Such demographic transitions appear as a remarkable feature of Homo sapiens population dynamics, most likely fuelled by the ability to accumulate cultural/technological innovations that actively modify their environment. We are especially interested in establishing if the demographic transitions of pre-historic populations show the same dynamic signature of the Industrial Revolution transition (a positive relationship between population growth rates and size). Our results show that population growth patterns across different pre-historic societies were similar to those observed during the Industrial Revolution in developed western societies. These features, which appear to have been operating during most of our recent demographic history from hunter-gatherers to modern industrial societies, imply that the dynamics of cooperation underlay sudden population transitions in human societies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'. |
Comparing SPI and SPEI to detect different precipitation and temperature regimes in Chile throughout the last four decades | Atmospheric Research | Meseguer-Ruiz, O.; Serrano-Notivoli, R.; Aránguiz-Acuña, A.; Fuentealba, M.; Nuñez-Hidalgo, I.; Sarricolea, P.; Garreaud, R. | 2024 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107085 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107085 | art107085 | Vol: 297 | 01698095 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Droughts are one of the main environmental challenges facing the world this century. The latitudinal and orographic characteristics of continental Chile leads different areas within it to experience very different regimes of precipitation and temperature, resulting in a wide variation in the occurrence and severity of droughts. Using the CR2Met 5 × 5 km resolution gridded monthly dataset covering the years from 1979 to 2019, we calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) of March and September at 3-, 6-, 9-, 12- and 24-months to: 1) relate them with different climate modes, and 2) determine their temporal evolution. We found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation shows low positive correlations with SPI but no significant correlations with SPEI. The Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation shows different correlations in northern Chile, as well as El Niño 1 + 2 and the Antarctic Oscillation, for both SPI and SPEI. Both SPI and SPEI show negative (drier) trends in the north and center of Chile, while positive (wetter) trends appear in the south. SPEI shows stronger and more significant negative trends, influenced by the overall warming of the country. Warming trends are lower on the coast, so SPI could be a good indicator for coastal areas, while SPEI could be a good indicator for inland areas. Climate modes are useful for monthly and annual predictions, and by being a good drought predictor, they can help inform key public policies. These results are expected to help Chilean decision makers dealing with the challenges facing water management in the immediate future. © 2023 Elsevier B.V. |
General dry trends according to the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in mainland Chile | Frontiers in Earth Science | Meseguer-Ruiz, O.; Serrano-Notivoli, R.; Núñez-Hidalgo, I.; Sarricolea, P. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.3389/feart.2024.1355443 | https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2024.1355443 | art1355443 | Vol: 12.0 | 22966463 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Droughts are one of the main challenges affecting humanity in a global change context. Due to its spatial configuration, Chile experiences droughts of different severities, from arid to humid climates, ranging from sea level to elevations above 6,000 m above sea level (a.s.l.), but it is still unknown how this phenomenon behaves in distribution, duration and intensity. The goal of this study is to identify how droughts have affected the different climate regions of the country between 1979 and 2019. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), calculated for March and September, at the end of the humid season in the north and center-south of the country, respectively, and calculated at 3-, 6-, 9-, 12- and 24-month, allowed to determine the trends of the drought severity in a 5 × 5 km grid between 1979 and 2019. We found that negative and significant trends, indicating dry conditions, appear mainly in the Andes above 2,000 m a.s.l., where the main water reservoirs are located, affecting all climate types, except Mediterranean ones between 33°S and 38°S. The SPEI indicates general trends towards drier conditions across various elevations and climate types, with more pronounced negative trends in the north and central regions and some positive trends in the south. These trends suggest a significant impact on water availability, and highlight the need for focused policy initiatives to combat drought effects and manage water resources effectively. These findings are of main interest to Chile, one of the world’s leading producers of lithium and copper, with both industries requiring substantial amounts of water for extraction and processing, demanding high water availability in a drier territory. Copyright © 2024 Meseguer-Ruiz, Serrano-Notivoli, Nuñez-Hidalgo and Sarricolea. |
Coordinated Geostationary, Multispectral Satellite Observations Are Critical for Climate and Air Quality Progress | AGU Advances | Millet, D.; Palmer, P.; Levelt, P.; Gallardo, L.; Shikwambana, L. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1029/2024av001322 | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024av001322 | arte2024AV001322 | Vol: 5.0 Issue: 5.0 | 2576604X | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | en | Satellite observations are critical for air quality and climate monitoring, and for developing the process understanding needed for reliable planning and predictions. Our current space‐based observing system stands at a crossroads with the early missions approaching their end‐of‐life. We articulate the challenges and needs to sustain and develop these environmental records into the future, focusing specifically on observations of gas‐phase atmospheric composition. |
Exploring the multifunctional landscapes model in areas dominated by non-native tree plantations | Trees, Forests and People | Ortiz, A.; Gayó, E.; Henríquez, N.; Henríquez, B.; Pauchard, A. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes; Zonas Costeras | 10.1016/j.tfp.2024.100617 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2024.100617 | art100617 | Vol: 17.0 | 26667193 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | Multifunctional landscapes offer an integrated approach to production, conservation, and human well-being. However, the challenges of implementing them in territories where plantations dominate are yet not well understood. This is the case in Chile, where plantations of non-native pines and eucalypts are extensively planted in its South-Central regions for timber and pulp. The resulting landscape homogenization, environmental degradation, and increased wildfire risk have caused and exacerbated conflicts, impacting biodiversity and the well-being of local communities and the Indigenous Mapuche Peoples. After the mega-wildfires in the region in 2023, science-policy discourse promoted the multifunctional landscapes model as a way to increase resilience. But what does this multifunctionality mean in challenging social-ecological contexts? Here, we aim to explore and deconstruct the multifunctional landscapes model in the context of the complex social-ecological systems of South-Central Chile. In this study, a review of the literature and semi-structured interviews with regional experts were used to better understand the challenges and opportunities presented by multifunctional landscapes. The results show a need to deepen the knowledge of how to move the model into practice, such as how to identify and decide compatible activities in the landscape. The thematic analysis of the interviews showed that restoration and water security are shared goals across the diverse actors in South-Central Chile. However, there were significant differences in knowledge, experiences and resources. While a number of landscape initiatives exist in the region, significant work is needed to build a common vision before the potential of multifunctional landscapes can be realized. © 2024 The Author(s) |
Geomorphology of the Caracota Valley, Western Altiplano, Northern Chile | Journal of Maps | Otto, J.; Gallardo, M.; Sitzia, L.; Osorio, D.; Gayo, E. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1080/17445647.2024.2399948 | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17445647.2024.2399948 | 2399948 | Vol: 20.0 Issue: 1.0 | 17445647 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE; SSCI) | | English | We present a detailed geomorphological characterisation of the Caracota Valley (18°49′S 69°11′W, 4200–4600 m) in the western Altiplano of Northern Chile. A complex pattern of Pleistocene and Early Holocene glacier activity is responsible for the today's landscape configuration. Wetlands and temporary lakes significantly characterise the Caracota Valley setting providing water sources and storage required for life in this semi-arid landscape. Non-glacial processes at low intensities through most of the Holocene evoked little changes to the glacial landscape configuration, even though alluvial, fluvial and aeolian processes locally caused some sediment redistribution. The geomorphological study is embedded into a geoarchaeological research project on early human occupation in the zone of the Salar de Surire, Northern Chile, at 18°50′S. The geomorphological map offers a base to frame future discussions on the links between cultural and geomorphological places formation, which is a necessary step to move beyond site scales and ethnographic assumptions in the region of interest. |
Stepping-up climate action and climate justice: Chile’s path towards a new model of climate governance | Environmental Research Letters | Rojas, M.; Billi, M. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.1088/1748-9326/ace4de | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace4de | art011003 | Vol: 19.0 Issue: 1.0 | 17489326 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | |
Changes in South American surface ozone trends: exploring the influences of precursors and extreme events | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Seguel, R.; Castillo, L.; Opazo, C.; Rojas, N.; Nogueira, T.; Cazorla, M.; Gavidia-Calderón, M.; Gallardo, L.; Garreaud, R.; Carrasco-Escaff, T.; Elshorbany, Y. | 2024 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/acp-24-8225-2024 | https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8225-2024 | 8225-8242 | Vol: 24.0 Issue: 14.0 | 16807316 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | In this study, trends of 21st-century ground-level ozone and ozone precursors were examined across South America, a less-studied region where trend estimates have rarely been comprehensively addressed. Therefore, we provided an updated regional analysis based on validated surface observations. We tested the hypothesis that the recent increasing ozone trends, mostly in urban environments, resulted from intense wildfires driven by extreme meteorological events impacting cities where preexisting volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regimes dominate. We applied the quantile regression method based on monthly anomalies to estimate trends, quantify their uncertainties and detect trend change points. Additionally, the maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) and peak-season metrics were used to assess short- and long-term exposure levels, respectively, for the present day (2017–2021). Our results showed lower levels in tropical cities (Bogotá and Quito), varying between 39 and 43 nmol mol−1 for short-term exposure and between 26 and 27 nmol mol−1 for long-term exposure. In contrast, ozone mixing ratios were higher in extratropical cities (Santiago and São Paulo), with a short-term exposure level of 61 nmol mol−1 and long-term exposure levels varying between 40 and 41 nmol mol−1. Santiago (since 2017) and São Paulo (since 2008) exhibited positive trends of 0.6 and 0.3 nmol mol−1 yr−1, respectively, with very high certainty. We attributed these upward trends, or no evidence of variation, such as in Bogotá and Quito, to a well-established VOC-limited regime. However, we attributed the greater increase in the extreme percentile trends (≥ 90th) to heat waves and, in the case of southwestern South America, to wildfires associated with extreme meteorological events. © Author(s) 2024. |
Camelids in the hyperarid core of the Atacama desert 12,000–11,000 years ago? A stable isotope study and its consequences for early human settlement | Quaternary Science Reviews | Ugalde, P.; Gayo, E.; Labarca, R.; Santoro, C.; Quade, J. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.108750 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.108750 | art108750 | Vol: 335.0 | 02773791 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | How did hunter-gatherers initially settle and move across extreme environments? We conducted a multi-disciplinary study to tackle this question, focusing on how Paleoindigenous populations inhabited the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert. Particularly, we examined the stable isotopic values of ∼12,000–11,200-year-old camelid and rodent bones and hair samples retrieved from low-elevation archaeological sites (Pampa del Tamarugal basin - PdT, 800–1200 masl). By integrating novel and existing data into a regional stable isotope ecology, we offer a baseline for interpreting our results. δ13C and δ15N values on archaeological remains show animals with different geographical origins. A first group includes camelids and rodents with lower δ15N values and δ13C values indicating a dominantly C3 diet, corresponding to animals either local to the PdT or from the Andean Steppe, at least ∼80 km away and between 4000 and 4500 masl. Most of these remains, however, come from residential sites and belong to young camelids, indicating a local origin. A second group presents a higher δ15N signal and δ13C values indicative of a mixed C3–C4 based diet. These animals were not local but source to the Puna at least ∼60 km away between 3200 - 4000 masl. We hypothesize that the first would correspond to animals associated with hunter-gatherer bands settled around a wetland and grove environment in the PdT. The second group could correspond to remains brought by humans from the Puna to the PdT. Our results demonstrate that during the Late Pleistocene/Early Holocene the Atacama was very different than today, supporting life that included large and mid-size game. These results also show that the core of the Atacama attracted animals and people and counters the notion of this ecosystem as a barren passageway from the Andes to the coast. © 2024 Elsevier Ltd |
CoCO2-MOSAIC 1.0: a global mosaic of regional, gridded, fossil, and biofuel CO2 emission inventories | Earth System Science Data | Urraca, R.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Álamos, N.; Berna-Peña, L.; Crippa, M.; Darras, S.; Dellaert, S.; Denier van der Gon, H.; Dowell, M.; Gobron, N.; Granier, C.; Grassi, G.; Guevara, M.; Guizzardi, D.; Gurney, K.; Huneeus, N.; Keita, S.; Kuenen, J.; Lopez-Noreña, A.; Puliafito, E.; Roest, G.; Rossi,... | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/essd-16-501-2024 | https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-501-2024 | 501-523 | Vol: 16.0 Issue: 1.0 | 18663508 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | en | Gridded bottom-up inventories of CO2 emissions are needed in global CO2 inversion schemes as priors to initialize transport models and as a complement to top-down estimates to identify the anthropogenic sources. Global inversions require gridded datasets almost in near-real time that are spatially and methodologically consistent at a global scale. This may result in a loss of more detailed information that can be assessed by using regional inventories because they are built with a greater level of detail including country-specific information and finer resolution data. With this aim, a global mosaic of regional, gridded CO2 emission inventories, hereafter referred to as CoCO2-MOSAIC 1.0, has been built in the framework of the CoCO2 project. CoCO2-MOSAIC 1.0 provides gridded (0.1° ×0.1° ) monthly emissions fluxes of CO2 fossil fuel (CO2ff, long cycle) and CO2 biofuel (CO2bf, short cycle) for the years 2015-2018 disaggregated in seven sectors. The regional inventories integrated are CAMS-REG-GHG 5.1 (Europe), DACCIWA 2.0 (Africa), GEAA-AEI 3.0 (Argentina), INEMA 1.0 (Chile), REAS 3.2.1 (East, Southeast, and South Asia), and VULCAN 3.0 (USA). EDGAR 6.0, CAMS-GLOB-SHIP 3.1 and CAMS-GLOB-TEMPO 3.1 are used for gap-filling. CoCO2-MOSAIC 1.0 can be recommended as a global baseline emission inventory for 2015 which is regionally accepted as a reference, and as such we use the mosaic to inter-compare the most widely used global emission inventories: CAMS-GLOB-ANT 5.3, EDGAR 6.0, ODIAC v2020b, and CEDS v2020_04_24. CoCO2-MOSAIC 1.0 has the highest CO2ff (36.7Gt) and CO2bf (5.9Gt) emissions globally, particularly in the USA and Africa. Regional emissions generally have a higher seasonality representing better the local monthly profiles and are generally distributed over a higher number of pixels, due to the more detailed information available. All super-emitting pixels from regional inventories contain a power station (CoCO2 database), whereas several super-emitters from global inventories are likely incorrectly geolocated, which is likely because regional inventories provide large energy emitters as point sources including regional information on power plant locations. CoCO2-MOSAIC 1.0 is freely available at zenodo (10.5281/zenodo.7092358; Urraca et al., 2023) and at the JRC Data Catalogue (https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/6c8f9148-ce09-4dca-a4d5-422fb3682389, last access: 15 May 2023; Urraca Valle et al., 2023). © 2024 Ruben Urraca et al. |
Climate change impacts childhood | Medwave | Yohannessen, K. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5867/medwave.2024.01.2805 | https://doi.org/10.5867/medwave.2024.01.2805 | e2805-e2805 | Vol: 24.0 Issue: 1.0 | 07176384 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | |
When another one bites the dust: Environmental impact of global copper demand on local communities in the Atacama mining hotspot as registered by tree rings | Science of the Total Environment | Zanetta-Colombo, N.; Scharnweber, T.; Christie, D.; Manzano, C.; Blersch, M.; Gayo, E.; Muñoz, A.; Fleming, Z.; Nüsser, M. | 2024 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170954 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170954 | art170954 | Vol: 920.0 | 00489697 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | Assessing the impact of mining activity on the availability of environmental pollutants is crucial for informing health policies in anticipation of future production scenarios of critical minerals essential for the transition to a net-zero carbon society. However, temporal and spatial monitoring is often sparse, and measurements may not extend far enough back in time. In this study, we utilize variations of chemical elements contained in tree-rings collected in local villages from an area heavily affected by copper mining in the Atacama Desert since the early 20th century to evaluate the temporal distribution of pollutants and their relationship with local drivers. By combining time-varying data on local drivers, such as copper production and the dry tailings deposit area, we show how the surge in copper production during the 1990s, fueled by trade liberalization and increased international demand, led to a significant increment in the availability of metal(loid)s related to mining activities on indigenous lands. Our findings suggest that the environmental legislation in Chile may be underestimating the environmental impact of tailing dams in neighboring populations, affecting the well-being of Indigenous Peoples from the Atacama mining hotspot region. We argue that future changes in production rates driven by international demand could have negative repercussions on the environment and local communities. Therefore, mining emissions and the management of tailing dams should be carefully considered to anticipate their potential negative effects on human and ecosystem health. © 2024 The Authors |
Blowin’ in the Wind: Mapping the Dispersion of Metal(loid)s From Atacama Mining | GeoHealth | Zanetta‐Colombo, N.; Manzano, C.; Brombierstäudl, D.; Fleming, Z.; Gayo, E.; Rubinos, D.; Jerez, Ó.; Valdés, J.; Prieto, M.; Nüsser, M. | 2024 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1029/2024gh001078 | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gh001078 | arte2024GH001078 | Vol: 8.0 Issue: 10.0 | 2471-1403 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | en | The Atacama Desert’s naturally elevated metal(loid)s pose a unique challenge for assessing the environmental impact of mining, particularly for indigenous communities residing in these areas. This study investigates how copper mining influences the dispersion of these elements in the wind-transportable fraction (<75 μm) of surface sediments across an 80 km radius. We employed a multi-pronged approach, utilizing spatial modeling to map element distributions, exponential decay analysis to quantify concentration decline with distance, regime shift modeling to identify dispersion pattern variations, and pollution assessment to evaluate impact. Our results reveal significant mining-driven increases in surface concentrations of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), and arsenic (As). Notably, within the first 20 km, concentrations peaked at 1,016 mg kg⁻1 for Cu, 31 mg kg⁻1 for Mo, and a remarkable 165 mg kg⁻1 for As. Cu and Mo displayed significant dispersion, extending up to 50 km from the source. However, As exhibited the most extensive reach, traveling up to 70 km downwind, highlighting the far-reaching ecological footprint of mining operations. Mineralogical analyses corroborated these findings, identifying mining-related minerals in surface sediments far beyond the immediate mining area. Although pollution indices based on the proposed Local Geochemical Background reveal significant contamination across the study area, establishing accurate pre-industrial baseline values is essential for a more reliable assessment. This study challenges the concept of “natural pollution” by demonstrating that human activities exacerbate baseline metal(loid)s levels. Expanding monitoring protocols is imperative to comprehensively assess the combined effects of multiple emission sources, including mining and natural processes, in safeguarding environmental and human health for future generations. |
Governance of Pandemics: why was it so easy? A proposal for the study of COVID-19 and climate change; [Gobernanza de la Pandemia: ¿por qué fue tan fácil?: Una propuesta para el estudio del COVID-19 y del cambio climático] | Revista Mad | Billi, M. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5354/0719-0527.2023.73366 | https://revistamad.uchile.cl/index.php/RMAD/article/view/73366 | 1-18 | Issue: 49.0 | 07180527 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | | Spanish | We propose to compare the pandemics and climate change from the point of view of the governance challenges that both imply, and the strategies that have been implemented to respond to it. Specifically, we seek to understand why facing the pandemic appears to have been ‘easier’ than what has been the case with climate change, that is, why the public response to the phenomenon has managed to be so fast and effective, in relative terms, compared to many other dilemmas facing our contemporary society. To that purpose, we advance a comparative analysis model, inspired by Niklas Luhmann's Theory of Social Systems, which we call ‘governance prism’, structured along three dimensions (who governs? what is governed? what for? –or where– is it governed?). We also propose that different specific governance strategies can be characterized based on how these questions are answered. From this, some findings and transversal reflections are derived that, we hope, can serve as a guide to design better governance arrangements that better prepare us both to face the climate and environmental crisis that we are experiencing, as well as to face new hypothetical epidemic outbreaks that may arise in the future. © 2023 Universidad de Chile. All rights reserved. |
Temporal and Spatial Trends of Adverse Pregnancy and Birth Outcomes in a Sample of Births from a Public Hospital in Chile | Journal of Urban Health | Blanco, E.; Ruiz-Rudolph, P.; Yohannessen, K.; Ayala, S.; Quinteros, M.; Delgado-Saborit, J.; Blazquez, C.; Iglesias, V.; Zapata, D.; Bartington, S.; Harrison, R.; Ossa, X. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1007/s11524-023-00733-y | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-023-00733-y | 513-524 | Vol: 100 | 1099-3460 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Understanding temporal and spatial trends in pregnancy and birth outcomes within an urban area is important for the monitoring of health indicators of a population. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all births in the public hospital of Temuco, a medium-sized city in Southern Chile between 2009 and 2016 (n = 17,237). Information on adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes, as well as spatial and maternal characteristics (insurance type, employment, smoking, age, and overweight/obesity), was collected from medical charts. Home addresses were geocoded and assigned to neighborhood. We tested whether births and prevalence of adverse pregnancy outcomes changed over time, whether birth events were spatially clustered (Moran’s I statistic), and whether neighborhood deprivation was correlated to outcomes (Spearman’s rho). We observed decreases in eclampsia, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and small for gestational age, while gestational diabetes, preterm birth, and low birth weight increased over the study period (all p < 0.01 for trend), with little changes after adjusting for maternal characteristics. We observed neighborhood clusters for birth rate, preterm birth, and low birth weight. Neighborhood deprivation was negatively correlated with low birth weight and preterm birth, but not correlated with eclampsia, preeclampsia, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, small for gestational age, gestational diabetes, nor stillbirth. Several encouraging downward trends and some increases in adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes, which, overall, were not explained by changes in maternal characteristics were observed. Identified clusters of higher adverse birth outcomes may be used to evaluate preventive health coverage in this setting. © 2023, The New York Academy of Medicine. |
Historical Reconstruction of Beekeeping Public Policies in Chile (1968-2022): Transitioning between a Protagonist State, State Withdrawal and Public-Private Articulation; [Reconstrucción histórica de las políticas públicas apícolas en Chile (1968-2022): transitando entre un Estado protagonista, el retiro estatal y la articulación público privada] | Cuadernos de Desarrollo Rural | Calderón-Seguel, M.; Muñoz, A.; Esper, E.; Sánchez, A.; Bravo, J.; Yáñez, K.; Zapata-Hernández, G.; Gajardo-Rojas, M.; Prieto, M.; Marchant Santiago, C.; Urquiza, A. | 2023 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.11144/Javeriana.cdr20.rhpp | https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.cdr20.rhpp | | Vol: 20.0 | 01221450 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | Spanish | Beekeeping worldwide and in Chile is an activity of great importance for the rural economy, the protection of the melliferous flora and food security, through pollination services. For this reason, international organizations and States consider it a strategic activity for rural development and, accordingly, recent policies formulated in Chile have subscribed to some of these perspectives. There are currently multiple threats to honey bees and other pollinators, which are expressed differently in different countries. Consequently, the study of beekeeping policies is of utmost relevance. In this article, through the analysis of archives and bibliographic sources, a historical reconstruction of the beekeeping policies promoted in Chile between 1968 and 2022 is carried out. Four stages were identified according to institutional designs, thematic orientations and scales of application. It concludes with the main challenges detected for the study of these policies in the country. © 2023, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana. All rights reserved. |
Andean peatlands at risk? Spatiotemporal patterns of extreme NDVI anomalies, water extraction and drought severity in a large-scale mining area of Atacama, northern Chile | International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation | Chávez, R.; Meseguer-Ruiz, O.; Olea, M.; Calderón-Seguel, M.; Yager, K.; Isela Meneses, R.; Lastra, J.; Núñez-Hidalgo, I.; Sarricolea, P.; Serrano-Notivoli, R.; Prieto, M. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.jag.2022.103138 | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1569843222003260 | 103138 | Vol: 116 | 15698432 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | In the Andes, multiple human and climatic factors threaten the conservation of bofedales, a type of high altitude peat forming wetland widely distributed in the tropical and subtropical Andes. In northern Chile, climate change and water extraction for industrial activities are among the most significant threats to these relevant socio-hydrological systems hosting indigenous pastoral communities. In this study, we present an integrated analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies, drought severity and water rights granted to industry to provide insight on the conservation status of bofedales, historical drivers of their transformation, and current threats. Using Landsat satellite imagery from 1986 to 2018, we identify spatio-temporal NDVI changes of 442 bofedales in one of the leading copper producing regions of the world. The NDVI time series analysis over 32 growing seasons was used to detect extreme anomalies, i.e. values outside the 95 % of the reference frequency distribution, indicating periods of extreme changes in the productivity of these high Andes wetlands. To evaluate the relationship between bofedales NDVI extreme periods to drought and continued water extraction activities, we combine a climate-based multi-temporal-scale drought index (SPEI) with the geospatial latitudinal distribution of water rights granted for extractive industries in the study area. Over the time period of analysis, the total amount of granted water rights increased 465 % from 1,201 l/s recorded before 1985 to 5,584 l/s in 2018. In the areas where the highest amount of water rights are concentrated, i.e. between 21.3°S and 22.1°S, “green” bofedales (NDVI>=0.23) are practically absent. NDVI of the austral summer (JFM) was highly correlated with the severity of drought occurring during the three months of the growing season peak. While our findings show bofedal productivity is mostly influenced by precipitation and temperature of the wet season (JFM) during the study period, results also raise questions regarding possible bofedal loss occurring over the previous 80 years prior to the satellite record, wherein water extraction activities have significantly increased according to official records. © 2022 |
A regularization method based on level-sets for the problem of crack detection from electrical measurements | Inverse Problems | De Cezaro, A.; Hafemann, E.; Leitão, A.; Osses, A. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1088/1361-6420/acb681 | https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6420/acb681 | art: 035009 | Vol: 39 Issue: 3 | 0266-5611 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | We investigate regularization methods for solving the problem of crack detection in bounded planar domains from electrical measurements on the boundary. Based on the multiple level-set approach introduced in Álvarez et al (2009 J. Comput. Phys. 228 5710-21) and on the regularization strategy devised in De Cezaro et al (2009 Inverse Problems 25 035004), we propose a Tikhonov type method for stabilizing the inverse problem. Convergence and stability results for this Tikhonov method are proven. An iterative method of (multiple) level-set type is derived from the optimality conditions for the Tikhonov functional, and a relation between this method and the iterated Tikhonov method is established. The proposed level-set method is tested on the same benchmark problem considered in Álvarez et al (2009 J. Comput. Phys. 228 5710-21). The numerical experiments demonstrate its ability to identify cracks in different scenarios with high accuracy even in the presence of noise. © 2023 IOP Publishing Ltd. |
A machine learning approach to address air quality changes during the COVID-19 lockdown in Buenos Aires, Argentina | Earth System Science Data | Diaz Resquin, M.; Lichtig, P.; Alessandrello, D.; De Oto, M.; Gómez, D.; Rössler, C.; Castesana, P.; Dawidowski, L. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/essd-15-189-2023 | https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-189-2023 | 189-209 | Vol: 15 Issue: 1 | 1866-3508 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Having a prediction model for air quality at a low computational cost can be useful for research, forecasting, regulatory, and monitoring applications. This is of particular importance for Latin America, where rapid urbanization has imposed increasing stress on the air quality of almost all cities. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been increasingly accepted as a useful tool for air quality forecasting. Out of these, random forest has proven to be an approach that is both well-performing and computationally efficient while still providing key components reflecting the nonlinear relationships among emissions, chemical reactions, and meteorological effects. In this work, we employed the random forest methodology to build and test a forecasting model for the city of Buenos Aires. We used this model to study the deep decline in most pollutants during the lockdown imposed by the COVID-19 (COronaVIrus Disease 2019) pandemic by analyzing the effects of the change in emissions, while taking into account the changes in the meteorology, using two different approaches. First, we built random forest models trained with the data from before the beginning of the lockdown periods. We used the data to make predictions of the business-as-usual scenario during the lockdown periods and estimated the changes in concentrations by comparing the model results with the observations. This allowed us to assess the combined effects of the particular weather conditions and the reduction in emissions during the period when restrictions were in place. Second, we used random forest with meteorological normalization to compare the observational data from the lockdown periods with the data from the same dates in 2019, thus decoupling the effects of the meteorology from short-term emission changes. This allowed us to analyze the general effect that restrictions similar to those imposed during the pandemic could have on pollutant concentrations, and this information could be useful to design mitigation strategies. The results during testing showed that the model captured the observed hourly variations and the diurnal cycles of these pollutants with a normalized mean bias of less than 6% and Pearson correlation coefficients of the diurnal variations between 0.64 and 0.91 for all the pollutants considered. Based on the random forest results, we estimated that the lockdown implied relative changes in concentration of up to -45% for CO, -75% for NO, -46% for NO2, -12% for SO2, and -33% for PM10 during the strictest mobility restrictions. O3 had a positive relative change in concentration (up to an 80%) that is consistent with the response in a volatile-organic-compound-limited chemical regime to the decline in NOx emissions. The relative changes estimated using the meteorological normalization technique show mostly smaller changes than those obtained by the random forest predictive model. The relative changes were up to -26% for CO, up to -47% for NO, -36% for NO2, -20% for PM10, and up to 27% for O3. SO2 is the only species that had a larger relative change when the meteorology was normalized (up to 20%). This points out the need for accounting not only for differences in emissions but also in meteorological variables in order to evaluate the lockdown effects on air quality. The findings of this study may be valuable for formulating emission control strategies that do not disregard their implication on secondary pollutants. We believe that the model itself can also be a valuable contribution to a forecasting system in the city and that the general methodology could also be easily applied to other Latin American cities as well. We also provide the first O3 and SO2 observational dataset in more that a decade for a residential area in Buenos Aires, and it is openly available at 10.17632/h9y4hb8sf8.1 . © 2023 Melisa Diaz Resquin et al. |
A large diffusion and small amplification dynamics for density classification on graphs | International Journal of Modern Physics C | Leal, L.; Montealegre, P.; Osses, A.; Rapaport, I. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1142/S0129183123500560 | https://doi.org/10.1142/S0129183123500560 | art: 2350056 | Vol: 34 Issue: 5 | 0129-1831 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | The density classification problem on graphs consists in finding a local dynamics such that, given a graph and an initial configuration of 0's and 1's assigned to the nodes of the graph, the dynamics converge to the fixed point configuration of all 1's if the fraction of 1's is greater than the critical density (typically 1/2) and, otherwise, it converges to the all 0's fixed point configuration. To solve this problem, we follow the idea proposed in [R. Briceño, P. M. de Espanés, A. Osses and I. Rapaport, Physica D 261, 70 (2013)], where the authors designed a cellular automaton inspired by two mechanisms: diffusion and amplification. We apply this approach to different well-known graph classes: complete, regular, star, Erdös-Rényi and Barabási-Albert graphs. © 2023 World Scientific Publishing Company. |
1000 years of population, warfare, and climate change in pre-Columbian societies of the Central Andes | PLoS ONE | Lima, M.; Gayó, E.; Gurruchaga, A.; Estay, S.; Santoro, C. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1371/journal.pone.0278730 | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0278730 | arte0278730 | Vol: 18 Issue: 11 November | 19326203 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Different Andean societies underwent processes of expansion and collapse during propitious or adverse climate conditions, resource boost or depletion along with population variations. Previous studies have emphasized that demographic collapses of polities in the Central Andes Area were triggered by warfare and the negative impacts of fluctuating climate (droughts) on crop productivity. Nevertheless, the interactions between climatic variability, demography and warfare have been less thoroughly evaluated. We develop population dynamic models to test feedback relationships between population growth, climate change and warfare in the Central Andes, where considerable regional hydroclimate variations have occurred over a millennium. Through population models, we found out that the rise and demise of social polities in the northern coast of the Central Andes appear to be a consequence of climate change. In contrast, for the highlands of Peru and the Titicaca basin, population models suggest that warfare intensity has a negative effect on population growth rates. Copyright: © 2023 Lima et al. |
Levels of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the Antarctic atmosphere over time (1980 to 2021) and estimation of their atmospheric half-lives | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Luarte, T.; Gómez-Aburto, V.; Poblete-Castro, I.; Castro-Nallar, E.; Hunneus, N.; Molina-Montenegro, M.; Egas, C.; Azcune, G.; Pérez-Parada, A.; Lohmann, R.; Bohlin-Nizzetto, P.; Dachs, J.; Bengtson-Nash, S.; Chiang, G.; Pozo, K.; Galbán-Malagón, C. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/acp-23-8103-2023 | https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8103-2023 | 8103-8118 | Vol: 23 Issue: 14 | 16807316 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are synthetic compounds that were intentionally produced in large quantities and have been distributed in the global environment, originating a threat due to their persistence, bioaccumulative potential, and toxicity. POPs reach the Antarctic continent through long-range atmospheric transport (LRAT). In these areas, low temperatures play a significant role in the environmental fate of POPs, retaining them for a long time due to cold trapping by diffusion and wet deposition, acting as a net sink for many POPs. However, in the current context of climate change, the remobilization of POPs that were trapped in water, ice, and soil for decades is happening. Therefore, continuous monitoring of POPs in polar air is necessary to assess whether there is a recent re-release of historical pollutants back to the environment. We reviewed the scientific literature on atmospheric levels of several POP families (polychlorinated biphenyls - PCBs, hexachlorobenzene - HCB, hexachlorocyclohexanes - HCHs, and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane - DDT) from 1980 to 2021. We estimated the atmospheric half-life using characteristic decreasing times (TD). We observed that HCB levels in the Antarctic atmosphere were higher than the other target organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), but HCB also displayed higher fluctuations and did not show a significant decrease over time. Conversely, the atmospheric levels of HCHs, some DDTs, and PCBs have decreased significantly. The estimated atmospheric half-lives for POPs decreased in the following order: 4,4' DDE (13.5 years) > 4,4' DDD (12.8 years) > 4,4' DDT (7.4 years) > 2,4' DDE (6.4 years) > 2,4' DDT (6.3 years) > α-HCH (6 years) > HCB (6 years) > 3-HCH (4.2 years). For PCB congeners, they decreased in the following order: PCB 153 (7.6 years) > PCB 138 (6.5 years) > PCB 101 (4.7 years) > PCB 180 (4.6 years) > PCB 28 (4 years) > PCB 52 (3.7 years) > PCB 118 (3.6 years). For HCH isomers and PCBs, the Stockholm Convention (SC) ban on POPs did have an impact on decreasing their levels during the last decades. Nevertheless, their ubiquity in the Antarctic atmosphere shows the problematic issues related to highly persistent synthetic chemicals. © 2023 Thais Luarte et al. |
A synergistic ozone-climate control to address emerging ozone pollution challenges | One Earth | Lyu, X.; Li, K.; Guo, H.; Morawska, L.; Zhou, B.; Zeren, Y.; Jiang, F.; Chen, C.; Goldstein, A.; Xu, X.; Wang, T.; Lu, X.; Zhu, T.; Querol, X.; Chatani, S.; Latif, M.; Schuch, D.; Sinha, V.; Kumar, P.; Mullins, B.; Seguel, R.; Shao, M.; Xue, L.; Wang, N.; Chen, J.; Gao, J.; Chai, F.; Simpson, I.; Si... | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.07.004 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.07.004 | 964-977 | Vol: 6 Issue: 8 | 25903330 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE; SSCI) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | Tropospheric ozone threatens human health and crop yields, exacerbates global warming, and fundamentally changes atmospheric chemistry. Evidence has pointed toward widespread ozone increases in the troposphere, and particularly surface ozone is chemically complex and difficult to abate. Despite past successes in some regions, a solution to new challenges of ozone pollution in a warming climate remains unexplored. In this perspective, by compiling surface measurements at ∼4,300 sites worldwide between 2014 and 2019, we show the emerging global challenge of ozone pollution, featuring the unintentional rise in ozone due to the uncoordinated emissions reduction and increasing climate penalty. On the basis of shared emission sources, interactive chemical mechanisms, and synergistic health effects between ozone pollution and climate warming, we propose a synergistic ozone-climate control strategy incorporating joint control of ozone and fine particulate matter. This new solution presents an opportunity to alleviate tropospheric ozone pollution in the forthcoming low-carbon transition. © 2023 The Authors |
Environmental evolution of western Tierra del Fuego (∼54°S) since ice-free conditions and its zonal/hemispheric implications | Quaternary Science Reviews | Moreno, P.; Lambert, F.; Hernández, L.; Villa-Martínez, R. | 2023 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108387 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108387 | art108387 | Vol: 322 | 02773791 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | By virtue of its position adjacent to the Drake Passage, Tierra del Fuego in South America allows examining the vegetation and environmental history of the southernmost continental landmass outside Antarctica, and the evolution of the Southern Westerly Winds-Southern Ocean (SWW–SO) coupled system since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). For that purpose, we studied sediment cores from Lago Charquito, a small closed-basin lake in central-west Tierra del Fuego with a continuous lacustrine record since ∼17.3 ka. Ice-free conditions at the site imply a ∼70 km retreat of the Bahía Inútil glacier lobe from its LGM position during a ∼800-year interval, a trend that continued until its disappearance ∼100 km upstream from L. Charquito, ∼800 years later. Our palynological data show an open landscape dominated by cold-tolerant shrubs and herbs between ∼17.3–12.9 ka, with increases in precipitation of SWW origin at ∼16.3 ka, ∼14.7 ka, between ∼8.7–7.6 ka, and after ∼6.8 ka. Warming at ∼12.9 ka initiated an abrupt afforestation trend that stalled during the early Holocene (∼12–8.7 ka) owing to a precipitation decline and wildfires, and later resumed in response to invigorated SWW. We hypothesize that sparse Nothofagus tree populations inhabited the periphery of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) during the LGM and migrated toward the Andes contemporaneous with glacier recession as temperature rose during the Last Glacial Termination (T1). We posit that besides establishing topographic and climatic barriers for land biota, the PIS enabled the connectivity of cold-tolerant hygrophilous plant populations along a humid fringe adjacent to its land-based perimeter, despite the presumably dry conditions downwind from the eastern PIS margin. Our results suggest that southward shifts or expansion of the SWW toward or beyond Tierra del Fuego enhanced upwelling and ventilation of deep waters in the SO, northward shifts or weakening had the opposite effect. We observe that the time evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, high-latitude air and sea-surface temperatures, and sea level during T1 fall short in explaining the timing and abruptness of the Bahía Inútil glacier lobe collapse, and quite possibly multiple other glacier lobes from the PIS. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd |
New Observations of the Meteorological Conditions Associated with Particulate Matter Air Pollution Episodes in Santiago, Chile | Atmosphere | Muñoz-M, R.; Garreaud, R.; Rutllant, J.; Seguel, R.; Corral, M. | 2023 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.3390/atmos14091454 | https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091454 | art1454 | Vol: 14 Issue: 9 | 20734433 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The meteorological factors of the severe wintertime particulate matter (PM) air pollution problem of the city of Santiago, Chile, are investigated with newly available observations, including a 30 m tower measuring near-surface stability, winds and turbulence, as well as lower-tropospheric vertical profiles of temperature and winds measured by commercial airplanes operating from the Santiago airport (AMDAR database). Focusing on the cold season of the years 2017–2019, high-PM days are defined using an index of evening concentrations measured in the western part of the city. The diurnal cycles of the different meteorological variables computed over 25 PM episodes are compared against the overall diurnal cycles. PM episodes are associated with enhanced surface stability and weaker surface winds and turbulence during the evening and night. AMDAR vertical profiles of temperature and winds during episodes reveal a substantial lower-tropospheric warming attributed to enhanced regional subsidence, which is consistent with the shallower daytime boundary layer depth and the increased surface thermal amplitude observed during these days. An explanation for the weak surface winds during PM episodes was not evident, considering that these are clear days that would strengthen the local valley wind system. Two possible mechanisms are put forward to resolve this issue, which can be tested in the future using high-resolution numerical modeling validated with the new data described here. © 2023 by the authors. |
Sources of Air Pollution Health Impacts and Co-Benefits of Carbon Neutrality in Santiago, Chile | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres | Nawaz, M.; Henze, D.; Huneeus, N.; Osses, M.; Álamos, N.; Opazo, M.; Gallardo, L. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1029/2023JD038808 | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038808 | arte2023JD038808 | Vol: 128 Issue: 19 | 2169-897X | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | The population of Santiago, Chile, experiences air pollution above global health guidelines that is attributable in part to large anthropogenic emissions. This is compounded by geographic features and meteorological conditions that are prone to pollution accumulation as well as secondary pollution production. In recent years, there have been improvements in air quality; however, the future of air pollution in Santiago remains unclear due to its growing population and increased vehicle use. Mitigation efforts can be supported by characterizing sources of air pollution and estimating how changes in emissions could affect air quality in future years. In this study, we conduct simulations using a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and perform adjoint calculations to characterize the relationship between health impacts associated with exposure to PM2.5, O3, and NO2 and anthropogenic emissions. We incorporate model updates in a new nested domain simulation over Central South America including local and regional anthropogenic emissions inventories for Chile. We estimate that 2,490 (1,360, 4,060) PM2.5- and O3-related premature deaths and 5,350 (1,320, 11,330) NO2-related new pediatric asthma cases were associated with pollution exposure in Santiago in 2015 and that a majority of these health impacts were attributable to anthropogenic emissions. We identify emissions from transportation, energy generation, and residential combustion as the leading contributors to these health impacts. Additionally, we estimate that Chile's commitment to attain carbon neutrality by 2050 could result in benefits in Santiago of 3,230 (1,240, 7,160) avoided deaths and 2,590 (640, 5,500) avoided pediatric asthma cases in 2050 compared to business-as-usual emissions. © 2023. The Authors. |
Population dynamics shifts by climate change: High-resolution future mid-century trends for South America | Global and Planetary Change | Nuñez-Hidalgo, I.; Meseguer-Ruiz, O.; Serrano-Notivoli, R.; Sarricolea, P. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104155 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104155 | art104155 | Vol: 226 | 09218181 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Population dynamics and climate change are the main challenges for the 21st century, especially in South America. Human populations will increase their exposure to novel climatic conditions in their territories, entangling and complicating health and social problems. We analyze how socioeconomic and climatic future pathways will evolve in South America, a land with high climatic and social heterogeneity. We use the Köppen–Geiger climate classification, population growth, and climate projections for the most likely climate change scenarios for the 2050s based on the CHELSA dataset. We found that tropical and arid climates extend between 4.2%–2.5% and 2.6%–3.9%, replacing temperate climate zones, which will be reduced between 5.3%–4.5% for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively. This implies a reduction of the Mediterranean, oceanic and polar climates. Population growth shows a significant relationship to increasing tropical and arid climates extension in almost all countries, meaning a higher exposure to more severe conditions for humans. This work opens up the chance of using possible guidelines to assist environmental management with key background information on expected climate types and population changes and address the potential effects of climate change on human settlements in the near future. © 2023 Elsevier B.V. |
Spatial analysis of paleoclimate variations based on proxy records in the south-central Andes (18°- 35° S) from 32 to 4 ka | Quaternary Science Reviews | Orellana, H.; Latorre, C.; García, J.; Lambert, F. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108174 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108174 | art108174 | Vol: 313 | 02773791 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | The long-term climate dynamics of the central Andes are part of an ongoing international research effort to reconstruct past climatic variations and sensitivity to different regional and global drivers during the last 50,000 years. The large number of diverse records, however, makes it difficult to compare results without an integrated spatial analysis that considers the nature of the record and whether they are integrating environmental conditions across a large basin (i.e., a lake record) or at a very local scale (such as a rodent midden). We compiled 92 records from the southern sector of the central Andes (SCA, 18°-35°S). Recalibrated records were further compared by converting the original author's interpretation into a scale of relative moisture anomalies (compared to the present) that ranges from −2 (very dry) to very wet (+2). Moisture anomaly maps were generated for intervals at 4, 6, 9.5, 14, 17, 21 and 32 ka BP (103 calibrated 14C years before present) using records within a 5% age uncertainty. Our compilations show a surprising degree of agreement in the extent and magnitude of past climate changes during late Pleistocene, but less spatial agreement during the Holocene. The TRACE21 transient climate model shows similar results, with better agreement during the Pleistocene compared to the Holocene. Our analyses not only reveal discrepancies between proxy record interpretations at sites from the same region but show which regions in the SCA require more study. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd |
Hydrological connections in a glaciated Andean catchment under permafrost conditions (33°S) | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies | Pereira, S.; Díez, B.; Cifuentes-Anticevic, J.; Leray, S.; Fernandoy, F.; Marquardt, C.; Lambert, F. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes; Zonas Costeras | 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101311 | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182200324X | 101311 | Vol: 45 | 22145818 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Fresh water supply is critical along the Andes, where drought conditions over the past decade are projected to persist. At high Andean headwater catchments, frozen ground conditions are assumed to modulate groundwater flow paths and their hydrological signals at different timescales. However, knowledge of hydrological connections in subtropical Andean catchments is still very sparse. This study assessed hydrological connections and their impacts on groundwater contribution to baseflow in a headwater proglacial aquifer located in central Chile at 33° S and 3600 m a.s.l. We collected and analyzed snow, glacial stream, and groundwater spring water samples between 2019 and 2021. We combined of water isotope and metagenomic proxies with the hydraulic parameterization of the catchment to deliver mean transit time distributions through the proglacial aquifer. The new hydrological insights for the region include the finding that groundwater spring signals delivered sub-decadal transit times, implying likely origins from glacial or interstitial ice. Additionally, the stable isotope signature showed that groundwater consistently differs from snow and surface runoff. The 16S rRNA metabarcoding analyses demonstrated the presence of psychrophilic microorganisms in groundwater springs, supporting the idea of a late warm-season activation of interstitial ice due to thawing events associated with a differential relative-abundance of specific cryophilic bacteria. Finally, our results suggest hydrological connections and dampening timeframes between glaciers, proglacial areas, and groundwater springs, most likely from thawing sources. © 2023 The Authors |
Road transport exhaust emissions in Colombia. 1990–2020 trends and spatial disaggregation | Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment | Rojas, N.; Mangones, S.; Osses, M.; Granier, C.; Laengle, I.; Alfonso A., J.; Mendez, J. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.trd.2023.103780 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2023.103780 | 103780 | Vol: 121 | 13619209 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE; SSCI) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Road traffic-related air pollution costs society in terms of lost lives, health problems, and financial damages. For directing regulatory actions and enhancing air quality, governments require emission inventories and trends over time across all geographic areas. This study provides a high-resolution spatially disaggregated on-road transportation emissions inventory in Colombia from 1990 to 2020. Our estimates followed a top-down approach that accounted for local characteristics such as fleet technology, fuel consumption, road infrastructure, and activity factors at a national and state level. We report annual CO2, CH4, NOx, VOCs, PM2,5, and black carbon at a spatial resolution of 0.01° x 0.01°. Economic crises (1998–2001), stringent emission requirements (2011), and the most recent sanitary quarantine (2020) all have an impact on emissions patterns, which grow at a slower rate than vehicle activity. For the annual emissions of CH4, CO, and PM2.5, the growth of motorbikes in the vehicle fleet is particularly crucial. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd |
Precipitation extremes in the Puna of Atacama Desert, Chile: How to manage current and future uncertainty?; [Precipitación extrema en la Puna del Desierto de Atacama: ¿Cómo gestionar la incertidumbre actual y futura?] | Investigaciones Geograficas (Spain) | Sarricolea, P.; Romero-Aravena, H.; Serrano-Notivoli, R.; Meseguer-Ruiz, O.; Dubreuil, V.; Funatsu, B. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.14198/INGEO.22852 | https://doi.org/10.14198/INGEO.22852 | 51-66 | Vol: - Issue: 79 | 0213-4691 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Chile is one of the Latin American countries most affected by Climate Change. There is a high level of uncertainty regarding the variability of precipitation and its projections in many regions of this country. This poses challenges for climate characterization and for defining strategies to reduce its risks. The study area is the Puna of Atacama Desert, Andean highlands located to the eastern side of the extreme arid lands, a region that concentrates the main copper and lithium mining at word scale, and where meteorological observations are scarce, with missing data and unreliable projections. Considering this data limitations, a daily precipitation database of 35 weather stations was constructed in order to evaluate some extreme precipitation indices that allow establishing changes between 1981-2017, in addition to spatial interpolations based on topography. It is concluded that most of the meteorological stations do not present significant trends of change, e.g. Extremely wet days (R99p), Wet days (RR) and Consecutive wet days (CWD). The index with the highest number of stations with a trend is CDD, which shows an increase in consecutive dry days. One of the main contributions of this research was to expand the number of observations and to generate maps of the spatial distribution of the indices of extremes. We are facing open questions regarding living with uncertainty, and meeting the challenges of maintaining records to increase the levels of certainty of climatic changes. © Pablo Sarricolea, Hugo Romero, Roberto Serrano-Notivoli, Oliver Meseguer-Ruiz, Vincent Dubreuil, Beatriz M. Funatsu. |
Volatile organic compounds measured by proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry over the complex terrain of Quintero Bay, Central Chile | Environmental Pollution | Seguel, R.; Garreaud, R.; Muñoz, R.; Bozkurt, D.; Gallardo, L.; Opazo, C.; Jorquera, H.; Castillo, L.; Menares, C. | 2023 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes; Zonas Costeras | 10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121759 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121759 | 121759 | Vol: 330 | 02697491 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | This research provides new evidence regarding the different kinds of air quality episodes, and their underlying mechanisms, that frequently impact the urban area of Quintero Bay in Central Chile, which is located along complex coastal terrain and is surrounded by industries. The monitoring campaign was carried out in January 2022 and encompassed two distinctive meteorological regimes. The first part of the month was dominated by a coastal low centered to the south of Quintero, which resulted in prevailing northerly flow (or weak southerlies) and a deep cloud-topped marine boundary layer. After a 2–3-day transition, the latter collapsed, and a clear-sky regime ensued, which was characterized by a shallow boundary layer and strong southerly winds during the daytime that lasted until the end of the campaign. By using proton transfer reaction time of flight mass spectrometry (PTR–TOF–MS) at a high temporal resolution (1 s), we measured high levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during air quality episodes in real time. The episodes detected were associated with different prevailing meteorological regimes, suggesting that different point sources were involved. In the first episode, propene/cyclopropane, butenes, benzene, toluene and ethylbenzene/xylenes were associated with north and northwesterly weak winds. Complaints associated with hydrocarbon odor were reported. The pollution originated from industrial and petrochemical units located to the north of Quintero, which transport and store natural gas, liquified petroleum gas and oil. The second episode was linked to an oil refinery located south of our measurement site. In this case, high levels of phenol, furan and cresols occurred under strong southwesterly winds. During this event, headaches and dizziness were reported. By contrast, the levels of other aromatic compounds (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene/xylenes) were lower than in the first air pollution episode. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd |
Unprecedented warmth: A look at Spain's exceptional summer of 2022 | Atmospheric Research | Serrano-Notivoli, R.; Tejedor, E.; Sarricolea, P.; Meseguer-Ruiz, O.; de Luis, M.; Saz, M.; Longares, L.; Olcina, J. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106931 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106931 | art106931 | Vol: 293 | 01698095 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | The warming of the global climate system is expected to result in significant socio-economic stress, primarily through the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events, with the potential for severe impacts on societies. This was evidenced by the vulnerability of European nations during the 2003 summer heatwave, which resulted in the death of tens of thousands of individuals due to heat-related complications. In this analysis, we examine the summer of 2022 in Spain, a Mediterranean country that is among the most impacted by the effects of climate change. A distinct pattern of the subtropical ridge in the 500 hPa geopotential height, which is typically linked to the occurrence of heatwaves in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), and the atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic region facilitated the southerly flow of exceptionally warm air masses from Africa towards the IP, contributing to the sustained high temperatures throughout the summer season. Our results show that Spain experienced record-breaking temperatures in nearly half of the country that favored more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting heatwaves compared to previous historical records available from 1893. In general, despite normal rainfall conditions, the extremely high temperatures led to intense drought conditions in most areas. Finally, the paleoclimatic records suggest that the average summer temperature of 2022 was unprecedented within the last 700 years, and the driest within the last 279 in NE Spain. These findings highlight the need for measures to mitigate the effects of heat on at-risk populations, and to increase resilience and adaptation to climate change in the future. © 2023 The Authors |
Climate-sensitive planning. Opportunities through the study of LCZs in Chile | Building and Environment | Smith Guerra, P.; Peralta Trigo, O.; Sarricolea Espinosa, P.; Thomas Cabrera, F.; Meseguer-Ruiz, O. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.buildenv.2023.110444 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2023.110444 | art110444 | Vol: 242 | 03601323 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Urban planning, through urban design and land use allocation, affects urban climate dynamics and patterns at different vertical layers of the urban boundary layer and spatial multiscale. Climate-sensitive urban planning and design draws attention to the consideration of climate parameters and their explanatory factors as a relevant element in decision-making. Local climate zones, defined from urban design variables such as building density and building height, allow for the recognition of homogeneous units useful for directing planning actions that allow cities and their population to adapt their climate behavior. This research compares the meso-scale climatic characteristics of the local climate zones proposed by Stewart and Oke for Chilean large cities located on an extensive latitudinal gradient (roughly 18°S to 45°S), on the coast of Chile and inland. In particular, the relationship between the behavior of surface temperature and vegetation is evaluated through the average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the decade (2008–2018). The results account for differences in the behavior of surface temperatures between climatic zones. In turn, vegetation is inversely related to the surface temperature, making it possible to distinguish the differences inside the LCZ, it being warmer in areas where the NDVI is lower. © 2023 |
Health and Safety Effects of Airborne Soil Dust in the Americas and Beyond | Reviews of Geophysics | Tong, D.; Gill, T.; Sprigg, W.; Van Pelt, R.; Baklanov, A.; Barker, B.; Bell, J.; Castillo, J.; Gassó, S.; Gaston, C.; Griffin, D.; Huneeus, N.; Kahn, R.; Kuciauskas, A.; Ladino, L.; Li, J.; Mayol‐Bracero, O.; McCotter, O.; Méndez‐Lázaro, P.; Mudu, P.; Nickovic, S.; Oyarzun, D.; Prospero, J.; Raga, ... | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1029/2021RG000763 | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021RG000763 | e2021RG000763 | Vol: 61 Issue: 2 | 8755-1209, 1944-9208 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | Risks associated with dust hazards are often underappreciated, a gap between the knowledge pool and public awareness that can be costly for impacted communities. This study reviews the emission sources and chemical, physical, and biological characteristics of airborne soil particles (dust) and their effects on human and environmental health and safety in the Pan-American region. American dust originates from both local sources (western United States, northern Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) and long-range transport from Africa and Asia. Dust properties, as well as the trends and interactions with criteria air pollutants, are summarized. Human exposure to dust is associated with adverse health effects, including asthma, allergies, fungal infections, and premature death. In the Americas, a well-documented and striking effect of soil dust is its association with Coccidioidomycosis, commonly known as Valley fever, an infection caused by inhalation of soil-dwelling fungi unique to this region. Besides human health, dust affects environmental health through nutrients that increase phytoplankton biomass, contaminants that diminish water supply and affect food (crops/fruits/vegetables and ready-to-eat meat), spread crop and marine pathogens, cause Valley fever among domestic and wild animals, transport heavy metals, radionuclides and microplastics, and reduce solar and wind power generation. Dust is also a safety hazard to road transportation and aviation, in the southwestern US where blowing dust is one of the deadliest weather hazards. To mitigate the harmful effects, coordinated regional and international efforts are needed to enhance dust observations and prediction capabilities, soil conservation measures, and Valley fever and other disease surveillance. © 2023. The Authors. |
Dust transport enhanced land surface weatherability in a cooling world | Geochemical Perspectives Letters | Yang, Y.; Galy, A.; Zhang, J.; Lambert, F.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, F.; Fang, X. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.7185/geochemlet.2322 | https://doi.org/10.7185/geochemlet.2322 | 36-39 | Vol: 26 | 2410339X | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The weatherability of exposed silicate rocks drives the efficiency of climatic feedback on the geological carbon cycle through silicate weathering. However, the controls and evolution of land surface weatherability are not fully understood. Tectonically induced exposure of fresh silicates can induce a wide range of weatherability, depending on the maturity and lithology of the exhumed rocks. Here, we propose that aeolian dust has potentially been pivotal in sustaining land surface weatherability during global cooling. Our analysis of palaeoclimate simulations shows an additional transport of 1072 ± 69 Tg yr−1 of dust to regions with precipitation of more than 400 mm yr−1 during the Last Glacial Maximum compared to the pre-industrial period. As dust mainly contains fresh minerals with high surface areas, such dust transport markedly increases land surface weatherability, yielding an additional atmospheric CO2 consumption of 0.431 ± 0.030 Tmol yr−1, which would offset the reduced silicate weathering induced by weaker climatic forcing. It is suggested that a dustier world could increase global land surface weatherability, leading to a more buffered carbon cycle that sustained low atmospheric CO2 levels. © 2023 European Association of Geochemistry. All rights reserved. |
Advances in Simulating the Global Spatial Heterogeneity of Air Quality and Source Sector Contributions: Insights into the Global South | Environmental Science & Technology | Zhang, D.; Martin, R.; Bindle, L.; Li, C.; Eastham, S.; van Donkelaar, A.; Gallardo, L. | 2023 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1021/acs.est.2c07253 | https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.2c07253 | 6955-6964 | Vol: 57 Issue: 17 | 0013-936X | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | High-resolution simulations are essential to resolve fine-scale air pollution patterns due to localized emissions, nonlinear chemical feedbacks, and complex meteorology. However, high-resolution global simulations of air quality remain rare, especially of the Global South. Here, we exploit recent developments to the GEOS-Chem model in its high-performance implementation to conduct 1-year simulations in 2015 at cubed-sphere C360 (∼25 km) and C48 (∼200 km) resolutions. We investigate the resolution dependence of population exposure and sectoral contributions to surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), focusing on understudied regions. Our results indicate pronounced spatial heterogeneity at high resolution (C360) with large global population-weighted normalized root-mean-square difference (PW-NRMSD) across resolutions for primary (62-126%) and secondary (26-35%) PM2.5 species. Developing regions are more sensitive to spatial resolution resulting from sparse pollution hotspots, with PW-NRMSD for PM2.5 in the Global South (33%), 1.3 times higher than globally. The PW-NRMSD for PM2.5 for discrete southern cities (49%) is substantially higher than for more clustered northern cities (28%). We find that the relative order of sectoral contributions to population exposure depends on simulation resolution, with implications for location-specific air pollution control strategies. © 2023 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society. |
A stability result for the identification of a permeability parameter on Navier–Stokes equations | Inverse Problems | Aguayo, J.; Osses, A. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1088/1361-6420/ac6971 | https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1361-6420/ac6971 | 075001 | Vol: 38 Issue: 7 | 0266-5611, 1361-6420 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | Abstract In this work, we present a stability result for the inverse problem of recovering a smooth scalar permeability parameter given by the Brinkman’s law applied to the steady Navier–Stokes equations from local observations of the fluid velocity on a fixed domain. In comparison with we prove a logarithmic estimate under weaker assumptions, since our proof is based in a strategy that does not require pressure observations. This kind or result are useful for inverse problems in soft tissue elastographyFinally, we present some numerical tests that validate our theoretical results. |
A simplified homogenization model applied to viscoelastic behavior of cortical bone at ultrasonic frequencies | Journal of Biomechanics | Aróstica, R.; Aguilera, A.; Osses, A.; Minonzio, J. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.jbiomech.2021.110868 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0021929021006242 | 110868 | Vol: 131 | 00219290 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Cortical bone is a complex multiscale medium and its study is of importance for clinical fracture prevention. In particular, cortical attenuation is known to be linked with shock energy absorption and ability to resist fracture. However, the links between cortical bone absorption and its multiscale structure are still not well understood. This work is about the use of homogenized tensors in order to characterize the viscoelastic behavior of cortical bone at ultrasonic frequencies, i.e., about 0.1 to 10 MHz. Such tensors are derived from the cell problem via two-scale homogenization theory for linear elastic and Kelvin–Voigt viscoelastic descriptions. The elliptic formulations obtained from the cell problems are implemented within the range of medically-observed porosities. Microstructure is assessed considering cubic cells with cylindrical inclusion and transverse isotropic assumption. A simplified model, adding one temporal parameter τ per phase, allows a good agreement with experimental data. The corresponding attenuation is proportional to the square of the frequency, in agreement with Kramer–Kronig relations. This development is proposed in the context of robust clinical inverse problem approaches using a restricted number of parameter. Two main properties for the material filling the pores are adjusted and discussed: absorption and shear contribution. Best agreement with experimental data is observed for material inside the pores being solid and highly attenuating. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd |
Energy poverty effects on policy-based PM2.5 emissions mitigation in southern and central Chile | Energy Policy | Calvo, R.; Álamos, N.; Huneeus, N.; O'Ryan, R. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112762 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421521006285 | 112762 | Vol: 161 | 03014215 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE; SSCI) | | English | Residential firewood burning is the main source of PM2.5 emissions in southern and central Chile. In Chile, approximately 4000 premature deaths are observed each year due to air pollution. Mitigation policies aim to reduce dwellings' energy demand and foster cleaner but more expensive energy sources. Pre-existing energy poverty conditions are often overlooked in these policies, even though they can negatively affect the adoption of these measures. This article uses southern and central Chile as a case study to assess quantitatively different policy scenarios of PM2.5 emissions between 2017 and 2050, considering energy poverty-related effects. Results show that PM2.5 emissions will grow 16% over time under a business as usual scenario. If thermal improvement and stove/heater replacements are implemented, PM2.5 reductions depend on the scale of the policy: a 5%–6% reduction of total southern and central Chile PM2.5 emissions if only cities with Atmospheric Decontamination Plans are included; a 54%–56% reduction of PM2.5 emissions if these policies include other growing cities. Our study shows that the energy poverty effect potentially reduces the effectiveness of these measures in 25%. Consequently, if no anticipatory measures are taken, Chile's energy transition goals could be hindered and the effectiveness of mitigation policies to improve air quality significantly reduced. |
PAPILA dataset: a regional emission inventory of reactive gases for South America based on the combination of local and global information | Earth System Science Data | Castesana, P.; Diaz Resquin, M.; Huneeus, N.; Puliafito, E.; Darras, S.; Gómez, D.; Granier, C.; Osses Alvarado, M.; Rojas, N.; Dawidowski, L. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/essd-14-271-2022 | https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/271/2022/ | 271-293 | Vol: 14 Issue: 1 | 1866-3516 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Abstract. The multidisciplinary project Prediction of Air Pollution in Latin America and the Caribbean (PAPILA) is dedicated to the development and implementation of an air quality analysis and forecasting system to assess pollution impacts on human health and economy. In this context, a comprehensive emission inventory for South America was developed on the basis of the existing data on the global dataset CAMS-GLOB-ANT v4.1 (developed by joining CEDS trends and EDGAR v4.3.2 historical data), enriching it with data derived from locally available emission inventories for Argentina, Chile, and Colombia. This work presents the results of the first joint effort of South American researchers and European colleagues to generate regional maps of emissions, together with a methodological approach to continue incorporating information into future versions of the dataset. This version of the PAPILA dataset includes CO, NOx, NMVOCs, NH3, and SO2 annual emissions from anthropogenic sources for the period 2014–2016, with a spatial resolution of 0.1∘ × 0.1∘ over a domain that covers 32–120∘ W and 34∘ N–58∘ S. The PAPILA dataset is presented as netCDF4 files and is available in an open-access data repository under a CC-BY 4 license: https://doi.org/10.17632/btf2mz4fhf.3 (Castesana et al., 2021). A comparative assessment of PAPILA–CAMS datasets was carried out for (i) the South American region, (ii) the countries with local data (Argentina, Colombia, and Chile), and (iii) downscaled emission maps for urban domains with different environmental and anthropogenic factors. Relevant differences were found at both country and urban levels for all the compounds analyzed. Among them, we found that when comparing PAPILA total emissions versus CAMS datasets at the national level, higher levels of NOx and considerably lower levels of the other species were obtained for Argentina, higher levels of SO2 and lower levels of CO and NOx for Colombia, and considerably higher levels of CO, NMVOCs, and SO2 for Chile. These discrepancies are mainly related to the representativeness of local practices in the local emission estimates, to the improvements made in the spatial distribution of the locally estimated emissions, or to both. Both datasets were evaluated against surface concentrations of CO and NOx by using them as input data to the WRF-Chem model for one of the analyzed domains, the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires, for summer and winter of 2015. PAPILA-based modeling results had a smaller bias for CO and NOx concentrations in winter while CAMS-based results for the same period tended to deliver an underestimation of these concentrations. Both inventories exhibited similar performances for CO in summer, while the PAPILA simulation outperformed CAMS for NOx concentrations. These results highlight the importance of refining global inventories with local data to obtain accurate results with high-resolution air quality models. |
The complex Andes region needs improved efforts to face climate extremes | Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene | Cazorla, M.; Gallardo, L.; Jimenez, R. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1525/elementa.2022.00092 | https://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article/10/1/00092/194534/The-complex-Andes-region-needs-improved-efforts-to | 00092 | Vol: 10 Issue: 1 | 2325-1026 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The steep slopes, highlands, and valleys of the Andes mountain chain are inhabited throughout its formidable length. This unique characteristic does not repeat in any other mountain region. The Andes shape weather and climate in South America. However, proper understanding of atmospheric phenomena influenced by a daunting altitudinal gradient is still behind what is needed to produce detailed and consistent climate projections. Despite significant advances, global models misrepresent key precipitation and circulation processes that are influenced by complex topography. Along with a lack of coordinated observations, the result is limited information to design preparedness measures, particularly to face extreme climate events. Of equal concern is the issue of air quality in densely urbanized countries that face decarbonization challenges and share a legacy of social inequity and political unrest. The complexity of the Andes region magnifies risks within all nations that share their influence. Thus, urgent action is needed to improve climate and air quality assessments with the direct purpose of strengthening policy-making processes. |
Well-to-wheel emissions and abatement strategies for passenger vehicles in two Latin American cities | Environmental Science and Pollution Research | Cuéllar-Álvarez, Y.; Clappier, A.; Osses, M.; Thunis, P.; Belalcázar-Cerón, L. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1007/s11356-022-20885-9 | https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11356-022-20885-9 | 72074-72085 | Vol: 29 | 0944-1344, 1614-7499 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | More stringent standards for engines and fuels are progressively implemented as alternatives to reduce on-road vehicle emissions. While electric vehicles appear as a perfect alternative since their engines do not emit pollutants, wear and dust resuspension (W&R) and indirect emissions associated with electricity production remain significant sources of pollution. This work compares well-to-wheel emissions (WTW) and abatement strategies for various types of passenger vehicles in Bogotá and Santiago for different pollutants (CO, PM2.5, SO2, and NOx) and greenhouse gases like CO2 equivalent (CO2-Eq). Results show that WTW baseline emissions are more extensive in Bogotá than in Santiago (i.e., 58 and 30% for PM2.5 and CO2-Eq), mainly due to the higher vehicle activity and older state of Bogotá’s fleet. We also evaluated extreme scenarios to assess the potential of a given vehicle technology or energy source to reduce emissions. We assessed, in particular, the replacement of all current vehicles by (1) conventional technologies with stricter emission standards and (2) battery electric vehicles powered with different energy resources. Our results indicate that replacing the current fleet with modern combustion technologies has a lower reduction potential than battery electric vehicles, but these reductions largely depend on the energy mix. Substitution by electric vehicles powered with electricity from renewable energies is the most efficient scenario in both cities. Finally, results also stress the importance of the resuspension of deposited road dust and brake and tire wear emissions in both cities as a crucial source of PM2.5, which must be better controlled. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. |
Impact of biomass burning and stratospheric intrusions in the remote South Pacific Ocean troposphere | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Daskalakis, N.; Gallardo, L.; Kanakidou, M.; Nüß, J.; Menares, C.; Rondanelli, R.; Thompson, A.; Vrekoussis, M. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes; Zonas Costeras | 10.5194/acp-22-4075-2022 | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/4075/2022/ | 4075-4099 | Vol: 22 Issue: 6 | 1680-7324 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Abstract. The ozone mixing ratio spatiotemporal variability in the pristine South Pacific Ocean is studied, for the first time, using 21-year-long ozone (O3) records from the entire southern tropical and subtropical Pacific between 1994 and 2014. The analysis considered regional O3 vertical observations from ozonesondes, surface carbon monoxide (CO) observations from flasks, and three-dimensional chemistry-transport model simulations of the global troposphere. Two 21-year-long numerical simulations, with and without biomass burning emissions, were performed to
disentangle the importance of biomass burning relative to stratospheric
intrusions for ambient ozone levels in the region. Tagged tracers of O3 from the stratosphere and CO from various biomass burning regions have been used to track the impact of these different regions on the southern tropical Pacific O3 and CO levels. Patterns have been analyzed based on atmospheric dynamics variability. Considering the interannual variability in the observations, the model can
capture the observed ozone gradients in the troposphere with a positive bias of 7.5 % in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) as well as near the surface. Remarkably, even the most pristine region of the global ocean is affected by distant biomass burning emissions by convective outflow through the mid and high troposphere and subsequent subsidence over the pristine oceanic region. Therefore, the biomass burning contribution to
tropospheric CO levels maximizes in the UTLS. The Southeast Asian open fires have been identified as the major contributing source to CO from biomass burning in the tropical South Pacific, contributing on average for the study period about 8.5 and 13 ppbv of CO at Rapa Nui and Samoa,
respectively, at an altitude of around 12 km during the burning season in
the spring of the Southern Hemisphere. South America is the second-most important biomass burning source region that influences the study area. Its
impact maximizes in the lower troposphere (6.5 ppbv for Rapa Nui and 3.8 ppbv for Samoa). All biomass burning sources contribute about 15–23 ppbv of CO at Rapa Nui and Samoa and account for about 25 % of the total CO in the entire troposphere of the tropical and subtropical South Pacific. This impact is also seen on tropospheric O3, to which biomass burning O3 precursor emissions contribute only a few ppbv during the burning period, while the stratosphere–troposphere exchange is the most important source of O3 for the mid troposphere of the South Pacific Ocean, contributing about 15–20 ppbv in the subtropics. |
A Cross‐Cutting Approach for Relating Anthropocene, Environmental Injustice and Sacrifice Zones | Earth's Future | Gayo, E.; Muñoz, A.; Maldonado, A.; Lavergne, C.; Francois, J.; Rodríguez, D.; Klock‐Barría, K.; Sheppard, P.; Aguilera‐Betti, I.; Alonso‐Hernández, C.; Mena‐Carrasco, M.; Urquiza, A.; Gallardo, L. | 2022 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1029/2021EF002217 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021EF002217 | arte2021EF002217 | Vol: 10 Issue: 4 | 2328-4277, 2328-4277 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The Anthropocene is an uneven phenomenon. Accelerated shifts in the functioning of the Earth System are mainly driven by the production and consumption of wealthy economies. Social, environmental and health costs of such industrialization, however, bear on low-income communities inhabiting severely degraded territories by polluting activities (i.e., sacrifice zones). How global, national and local socio-economic and governance processes have interacted in perpetuating socio-environmental inequalities in these territories has been rarely explored. Here, we develop an historical quantitative approach integrating a novel chemostratigraphic record, data on policy making, and socio-economic trends to evaluate the feedback relationship between environmental injustice and Anthropocene in sacrifice zones. We specifically outline a case study for the Puchuncaví valley -one of the most emblematic sacrifice zones from Chile-. We verify an ever-growing burden of heavy metals and metalloids over the past five decades paced by the staggering expansion of local industrial activities, which has ultimately been spurred by national and transnational market forces. Local poverty levels have declined concomitantly, but this path toward social equality is marginal as costs of pollution have grown through time. Indeed, national and international pollution control actions appear insufficient in mitigating the cumulative impact brought by highly toxic elements. Thus, our sub-decadal reconstruction for pollution trends over the past 136 years from a sediment record, emerges as a science-based tool for informing the discussion on Anthropocene governance. Furthermore, it helps to advance in the assessment of environmental inequality in societal models that prioritize economic growth to the detriment of socio-environmental security. © 2022 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. |
Multiple motion encoding in phase-contrast MRI: A general theory and application to elastography imaging | Medical Image Analysis | Herthum, H.; Carrillo, H.; Osses, A.; Uribe, S.; Sack, I.; Bertoglio, C. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.media.2022.102416 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1361841522000664 | 102416 | Vol: 78 | 1361-8415 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | While MRI allows to encode the motion of tissue in the magnetization's phase, it remains yet a challenge to obtain high fidelity motion images due to wraps in the phase for high encoding efficiencies. Therefore, we propose an optimal multiple motion encoding method (OMME) and exemplify it in Magnetic Resonance Elastography (MRE) data. OMME is formulated as a non-convex least-squares problem for the motion using an arbitrary number of phase-contrast measurements with different motion encoding gradients (MEGs). The mathematical properties of OMME are proved in terms of standard deviation and dynamic range of the motion's estimate for arbitrary MEGs combination which are confirmed using synthetically generated data. OMME's performance is assessed on MRE data from in vivo human brain experiments and compared to dual encoding strategies. The unwrapped images are further used to reconstruct stiffness maps and compared to the ones obtained using conventional unwrapping methods. OMME allowed to successfully combine several MRE phase images with different MEGs, outperforming dual encoding strategies in either motion-to-noise ratio (MNR) or number of successfully reconstructed voxels with good noise stability. This lead to stiffness maps with greater resolution of details than obtained with conventional unwrapping methods. The proposed OMME method allows for a flexible and noise robust increase in the dynamic range and thus provides wrap-free phase images with high MNR. In MRE, the method may be especially suitable when high resolution images with high MNR are needed. © 2022 |
Association between the diabetic foot amputation index and metabolic compensation in diabetes mellitus; [Asociación entre el índice de amputación por pie diabético y los indicadores de atención y manejo de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 en los Centros de Salud del Servicio Metropolitano Oriente, entre 2014 y 2018] | Revista Medica de Chile | Kuschel, F.; Orellana, I.; Valdés, M. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.4067/s0034-98872022000700912 | https://doi.org/10.4067/s0034-98872022000700912 | 912-918 | Vol: 150 Issue: 7 | 00349887 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | Spanish | Background: Diabetic foot amputation is a public health challenge due to the increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). Although there are many health indicators aimed at the management and control of T2D and its complications, amputations persist. Aim: To evaluate the association between diabetic foot amputation index and indicators of care and management of T2D in primary care centers of the eastern section of Santiago, Chile. Material and Methods: We conducted a mixed ecological study and included information from the Monthly Statistical report of different public health centers from 2014 to 2018. We also analyzed the hospital discharge records from an individual tertiary public health center. The annual index for diabetic foot amputation per 100,000 diabetic patients was used as a response variable. The diabetic compensation percentage was calculated as the proportion of adults with a glycosylated hemoglobin below 7% or the proportion of older people with a value below 8%. The diabetic decompensation percentage was calculated as the proportion of people with a glycosylated hemoglobin over 9%. Results: A high variability in demographic and management indicators was observed between communes and centers in the study period. Bivariate analysis showed a significant correlation between the amputation index, decompensation, and insulin use. In a regression analysis, the amputation index was significantly associated with the diabetic compensation percentage (β = -3.5; p < 0.05) and a high decompensation percentage (β = 12.3; p < 0.005). Conclusions: The diabetic foot amputation index was associated with diabetic compensation and decompensation indicators. © 2022 Sociedad Medica de Santiago. All rights reserved. |
Contaminación y sociedad: la construcción social de la polución atmosférica entre la prensa chilena y los Planes de Prevención y Descontaminación Atmosférica | Universum | Labraña, J.; Billi, M.; Arrieta Ruiz, D.; Urquiza Gómez, A. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.4067/s0718-23762022000200519 | http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-23762022000200519&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en | 519-538 | Vol: 37 Issue: 2 | 0718-2376 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Air pollution has become a central issue in recent decades. The present research aims to examine how the press media construct the problem of air pollution in the Metropolitan Region, Chile. To this end, news related to air pollution in the Metropolitan Region published in the digital sites of El Mercurio and La Nación between 2003 and 2018 were analyzed, assessing their closeness with respect to the construction of air pollution in science (assessed by analyzing publications on the topic indexed in Web of Science) and in politics (assessed by analyzing the Atmospheric Prevention and Decontamination Plans). The results suggest the existence of four different interpretative frameworks in the period that operate by selectively translating the results of scientific research into inputs for public policy, thus forming an idiosyncratic construction of the causes, consequences, and solutions to pollution. © 2022 Universidad de Talca. All rights reserved. |
Comité Científico de Cambio Climático: Soluciones basadas en la naturaleza | | Marquet, P.; Rojas, M.; Stehr, A.; Farias, L.; Gonzalez, H.; Muñoz, J.; Wagemann, E.; Rojas, C.; Rodriguez, I.; Hoyow, J. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | | https://comitecientifico.minciencia.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Soluciones-Basadas-en-la-Naturaleza-Marquet_compressed.pdf | 78 | | | | | | |
Silvopastoralism and the shaping of forest patches in the Atacama Desert during the Formative Period (ca. 3000–1500 years BP) | The Holocene | McRostie, V.; Babot, P.; Calás, E.; Gayó, E.; Gallardo, F.; Godoy-Aguirre, C.; Labarca, R.; Latorre, C.; Núñez, L.; Ojeda, K.; Santoro, C.; Valenzuela, D. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1177/09596836221122636 | http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09596836221122636 | 1492-1502 | Vol: 32 Issue: 12 | 0959-6836, 1477-0911 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | During the Formative period by the Late-Holocene (ca. 3000–1500 BP), semi-sedentary and sedentary human occupations had emerged in the oases, salares, and riverine systems in the central depression (2400–1000 masl) of the Atacama Desert, northern Chile (19–25°S). This hyperarid core was marginally occupied during the post-Pleistocene and middle Holocene droughts. Settlement on these lower belts was accompanied by a rise in humidity, the introduction of Andean crops, flourishment of Prosopis spp. (algarrobo) forests, and increasing integration of domestic camelid caravans. Here, we explore lowland husbandry within risk-spreading strategies, focusing on silvopastoralism and endozoochory between camelids and algarrobos. Analysis of camelid coprolites from seven archeological sites located in the Pampa del Tamarugal, Loa River, and Salar de Atacama found intense grinding from camelid chewing and indicated a ruminal digestive system. Abundant macro and microremains in the form of tissues, phytoliths, crystals, cell structures, and others, were identified as Prosopis, Atriplex, Schoenoplectus, Distichlis, and Phragmites. We conclude that camelids were foraging for Prosopis, although the rather low number of entire seeds preserved in the coprolites leads us to think that these herbivores might not have been the main vectors for the spread and germination of algarrobos. More samples and interdisciplinary studies are needed to comprehend the complex socioecological web in the shaping of these forests and the management of the Atacama Desert landscapes. |
High-resolution spatial-distribution maps of road transport exhaust emissions in Chile, 1990–2020 | Earth System Science Data | Osses, M.; Rojas, N.; Ibarra, C.; Valdebenito, V.; Laengle, I.; Pantoja, N.; Osses, D.; Basoa, K.; Tolvett, S.; Huneeus, N.; Gallardo, L.; Gómez, B. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/essd-14-1359-2022 | https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1359/2022/ | 1359-1376 | Vol: 14 Issue: 3 | 1866-3508 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Abstract. This description paper presents a detailed and consistent estimate and
analysis of exhaust pollutant emissions generated by Chile's
road transport activity for the period 1990–2020. The complete database for
the period 1990–2020 is available at the following DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17632/z69m8xm843.2 (Osses et al., 2021). Emissions are
provided at a high spatial resolution (0.01∘ × 0.01∘) over continental Chile from 18.5 to 53.2∘ S,
including local pollutants (CO; volatile organic compounds, VOCs; NOx; PM2.5), black carbon (BC) and
greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4). The methodology considers 70 vehicle
types, based on 10 vehicle categories, subdivided into 2 fuel types and
7 emission standards. Vehicle activity was calculated based on official
databases of vehicle records and vehicle flow counts. Fuel consumption was
calculated based on vehicle activity and contrasted with fuel sales to
calibrate the initial dataset. Emission factors come mainly from the Computer programme to calculate emissions from road
transport version 5 (COPERT 5),
adapted to local conditions in the 15 political regions of Chile, based on
emission standards and fuel quality. While vehicle fleet grew 5-fold
between 1990 and 2020, CO2 emissions have followed this trend at a
lower rate, and emissions of air local pollutants have decreased due to
stricter abatement technologies, better fuel quality and enforcement of
emission standards. In other words, there has been decoupling between fleet
growth and emissions' rate of change. Results were contrasted with global
datasets (EDGAR, CAMS, CEDS), showing similarities in CO2 estimations
and striking differences in PM, BC and CO; in the case of NOx and CH4
there is coincidence only until 2008. In all cases of divergent results,
global datasets estimate higher emissions. |
Socioeconomic inequalities and the surface heat island distribution in Santiago, Chile | Science of The Total Environment | Sarricolea, P.; Smith, P.; Romero-Aravena, H.; Serrano-Notivoli, R.; Fuentealba, M.; Meseguer-Ruiz, O. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155152 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969722022458 | 155152 | Vol: 832 | 00489697 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Surface urban heat islands (SUHIs) are an important socio-environmental problem associated with large cities, such as the Santiago Metropolitan Area (SMA), in Chile. Here, we analyze daytime and nighttime variations of SUHIs for each season of the year during the period 2000–2020. To evaluate socioeconomic inequities in the distribution of SUHIs, we establish statistical relationships with socioeconomic status, land price, and urban vegetation. We use the MODIS satellite images to obtain the land surface temperatures and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) through the Google Earth Engine platform. The results indicate more intense SUHIs during the nighttime in the eastern sector, coinciding with higher socioeconomic status and larger green areas. This area during the day is cooler than the rest of the city. The areas with lower and middle socioeconomic status suffer more intense SUHIs (daytime and nighttime) and match poor environmental and urban qualities. These results show the high segregation of SMA. Urban planning is subordinated to land prices with a structure maintained over the study period. The lack of social-climate justice is unsustainable, and such inequalities may be exacerbated in the context of climate change. Thus, these results can contribute to the planning of the SMA. © 2022 Elsevier B.V. |
Acta de resúmenes | Conferencia Internacional 2021 Ciudades Resilientes desde el Sur Global | | Sarricolea, P.; Urquiza, A.; Gallardo, L.; Gayo, E.; Lambert, F.; Boisier, J.; Garreaud, R.; Huneeus, N.; Osses, M.; Ibarra, C. | 2022 | | | https://www.cr2.cl/acta-de-resumenes-conferencia-internacional-2021-ciudades-resilientes-desde-el-sur-global/ | 246 | | | cr2.cl | | | La Conferencia Internacional 2021 Ciudades Resilientes desde el Sur Global, nace de una alianza entre el Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable CEDEUS, el Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres, CIGIDEN y el Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2. Todas instituciones de investigación de excelencia FONDAP, financiados por la Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo, ANID, e integradas por las mejores universidades chilenas. Anclada en la ciencia con impacto para la política pública, la Conferencia Internacional Ciudades Resilientes, abordó durante tres días el rol preponderante de las ciudades en los problemas globales, como las desigualdades sociales, las inequidades urbanas y territoriales, sumado a los impactos ambientales, las amenazas naturales, el cambio climático y las pandemias, entre otras. Pero, al mismo tiempo, estas ciudades ofrecen un espacio invaluable para crear e implementar soluciones innovadoras, para investigar y desarrollar ciencia con y para los territorios. |
Photochemical sensitivity to emissions and local meteorology in Bogotá, Santiago, and São Paulo | Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene | Seguel, R.; Gallardo, L.; Osses, M.; Rojas, N.; Nogueira, T.; Menares, C.; de Fatima Andrade, M.; Belalcázar, L.; Carrasco, P.; Eskes, H.; Fleming, Z.; Huneeus, N.; Ibarra-Espinosa, S.; Landulfo, E.; Leiva, M.; Mangones, S.; Morais, F.; Moreira, G.; Pantoja, N.; Parraguez, S.; Rojas, J.; Rondanelli,... | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes; Zonas Costeras | 10.1525/elementa.2021.00044 | https://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article/10/1/00044/169476/Photochemical-sensitivity-to-emissions-and-local | 00044 | Vol: 10 Issue: 1 | 2325-1026 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | This study delves into the photochemical atmospheric changes reported globally during the pandemic by analyzing the change in emissions from mobile sources and the contribution of local meteorology to ozone (O3) and particle formation in Bogotá (Colombia), Santiago (Chile), and São Paulo (Brazil). The impact of mobility reductions (50%–80%) produced by the early coronavirus-imposed lockdown was assessed through high-resolution vehicular emission inventories, surface measurements, aerosol optical depth and size, and satellite observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns. A generalized additive model (GAM) technique was also used to separate the local meteorology and urban patterns from other drivers relevant for O3 and NO2 formation. Volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) decreased significantly due to motorized trip reductions. In situ nitrogen oxide median surface mixing ratios declined by 70%, 67%, and 67% in Bogotá, Santiago, and São Paulo, respectively. NO2 column medians from satellite observations decreased by 40%, 35%, and 47%, respectively, which was consistent with the changes in mobility and surface mixing ratio reductions of 34%, 25%, and 34%. However, the ambient NO2 to NOx ratio increased, denoting a shift of the O3 formation regime that led to a 51%, 36%, and 30% increase in the median O3 surface mixing ratios in the 3 respective cities. O3 showed high sensitivity to slight temperature changes during the pandemic lockdown period analyzed. However, the GAM results indicate that O3 increases were mainly caused by emission changes. The lockdown led to an increase in the median of the maximum daily 8-h average O3 of between 56% and 90% in these cities. |
Long-term airborne particle pollution assessment in the city of Coyhaique, Patagonia, Chile | Urban Climate | Solís, R.; Toro A., R.; Gomez, L.; Vélez-Pereira, A.; López, M.; Fleming, Z.; Fierro, N.; Leiva G., M. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101144 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212095522000621 | 101144 | Vol: 43 | 2212-0955 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | An air pollution assessment in a small city located in the heart of Chilean Patagonia is presented. Seven years (2014–2020) of PM concentration levels retrieved from two monitoring stations permits an evaluation of the city's pollution variability, the effect of meteorological variables and long-term trends of air pollution. The highest PM concentration levels observed during the coldest months are mainly related to an increasing emission associated with the intensive use of firewood for residential heating and cooking. The most polluted days are associated with low temperatures, low wind speed and high PM2.5/PM10 ratios, which is consistent with the predominance of local firewood sources over background emissions. A decrease in both PM fractions over time has been estimated (PM10: -4.1, CI99%: −5.7 to −2.9 and PM2.5: -2.2, CI99%: −3.5 to −1.3 μg m−3 year−1). However, the annual average PM mass concentrations in Coyhaique exceeded both national and international air quality thresholds. The city reported a percent of annual exceedances of the daily WHO guidelines of 57% for PM10 and 77% for PM2.5. These numbers highlight the serious air pollution problem of the city of Coyhaique, which exhibits air pollution levels comparable to those of many polluted megacities in the world. © 2022 Elsevier B.V. |
A pilot study for climate risk assessment in agriculture: a climate-based index for cherry trees | Natural Hazards | Tudela, V.; Sarricolea, P.; Serrano-Notivoli, R.; Meseguer-Ruiz, O. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1007/s11069-022-05549-8 | https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-022-05549-8 | 163-185 | Vol: 115 | 0921-030X, 1573-0840 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Cherry trees are one of Chile’s most important specialty crop activities. Its commercial orchards have an extensive spatial distribution between the 31° S and 48° S, spreading from semiarid to tundra climates, but the trees appear primarily in the Mediterranean climate. Different extreme weather events, such as frosts, precipitation, and high temperatures, affect this crop at different phenological stages, especially in bloom, ripening, and floral differentiation. Based on a high-resolution climatic-gridded dataset of daily temperature and precipitation data, we defined an integrated risk index (RI) representing the frequency of occurrence of the events throughout the plant development period and considering each type of risk affecting each concrete phenological stage. High RI values indicate high climatic risk. The RI follows a meridional pattern influenced by elevation, with higher values in the highest elevations between 36° S and 40° S, sensitive to the simultaneous occurrence of frosts and precipitation events. The northern coast exhibited the lowest risk values, while a general gradient from low values in coastal areas to higher ones in inland elevated zones revealed an altitudinal pattern. Low-risk areas have a sparse distribution of crops, which can be explained by several factors restricting cherry cultivation such as soil limitations, high slopes, lack of productive support infrastructure, and competition with other profitable forestry and agricultural activities in the north and forest production in the south. These results will help to improve climate impact assessments for production systems, which can be conducted by following an easy-to-understand tool. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. |
Resilience and organization: Innovation as a challenge for universities; [Resiliencia y organización: La innovación como desafío de las universidades] | Revista Mad | Urquiza, A.; Labraña, J.; Rahmer, B.; Puyol, F.; Allendes, Á.; Gómez, y. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5354/0719-0527.2023.70849 | https://revistamad.uchile.cl/index.php/RMAD/article/view/70849/74162 | 1-10 | Vol: - Issue: 47 | 07180527 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | | Spanish | Innovation has become a central dimension of contemporary universities. However, there are still no guidelines on how to encourage universities to advance organizationally in this direction. Using elements of social systems theory, this article addresses the challenges faced by contemporary universities in relation to the relevance of innovation, suggesting guidelines for their reform. The organization of the resilient university, centered on the implementation of the principles of reflection, participation, and anticipation, allows progress in this direction. The article ends with a summary and a general reflection on the resilient university. © 2022 Universidad de Chile. All rights reserved. |
Comité Científico de Cambio Climático: Desalinización: Oportunidades y desafíos para abordar la inseguridad hídrica en Chile. | | Vicuña, S.; Daniele, L.; Farías, L.; González, H.; Marquet, P.; Palma-Behnke, R.; Stehr, A.; Urquiza, A.; Wagemann, E.; Arenas-Herrera, M.; Borquez, R.; Cornejo-Ponce, L.; Delgado, V.; Etcheberry, G.; Fragkou, M.; Fuster, R.; Gelcich, S.; Melo, O.; Monsalve, T.; Olivares, M.; Ramajo, L.; Ramirez-Pas... | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | | https://repositoriodirplan.mop.gob.cl/biblioteca/items/b38407dc-f89b-45fb-a37b-ea0d02773e05 | 1-189 | | | | | | Frente al problema de escasez hídrica forzada por el cambio climático en Chile, particularmente en la zona norte del país, se han instalado plantas desalinizadoras de distintos tamaños, con varias más en proceso de estudio y evaluación. La masificación de esta tecnología nos plantea el desafío de planificar su desarrollo futuro tomando decisiones con bases científicas considerando las ventajas y desventajas de este tipo de tecnología. El presente documento fue elaborado en respuesta a la solicitud formal del Ministerio de Medio Ambiente para que el Comité Asesor Ministerial Científico para el Cambio Climático (C4) redactase un informe sobre el desarrollo de plantas desalinizadoras en el país. A partir de dicha solicitud, el Comité trabajó recopilando antecedentes y organizando talleres de trabajo con la comunidad científica a lo largo de varias etapas. Como resultado se prepararon una serie de recomendaciones, no siempre consensuadas, acerca del desarrollo de esta tecnología en el país. |
Impact of mining on the metal content of dust in indigenous villages of northern Chile | Environment International | Zanetta-Colombo, N.; Fleming, Z.; Gayo, E.; Manzano, C.; Panagi, M.; Valdés, J.; Siegmund, A. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107490 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0160412022004172 | 107490 | Vol: 169 | 0160-4120 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Indigenous communities from northern Chile have historically been exposed to the impacts of massive copper industrial activities conducted in the region. Some of the communities belonging to the Alto El Loa Indigenous Development Area are located less than 10 km from the “Talabre'' tailings dam, which contains residues from copper production and other metals that can be toxic to human health (e.g., As, Sb, Cd, Mo, Pb). Given the increasing demand of copper production to achieve net-zero emission scenarios and concomitant expansions of the tailings, the exposure to toxic metals is a latent risk to local communities. Despite the impact that copper production could generate on ancestral communities from northern Chile, studies and monitoring are limited and the results are often not made accessible for local communities. Here, we evaluate such risks by characterizing metal concentrations in dust collected from roofs and windows of houses from the Alto El Loa area. Our results showed that As, Sb, Cd, Cu, Mo, Ag, S, and Pb concentrations in these matrices can be connected to local copper mining activities. Additionally, air transport models indicate that high concentrations of toxic elements (As, Sb, and Cd) can be explained by the atmospheric transport of particles from the tailings in a NE direction up to 50 km away. Pollution indices and Health Risk Assessment suggested a highly contaminated region with a health risk for its inhabitants. Our analysis on a local scale seeks to make visible the case of northern Chile as a critical territory where actions should be taken to mitigate the effects of mining in the face of this new scenario of international demand for the raw materials necessary for the transition to a net-zero carbon global society. © 2022 The Authors |
High-resolution inventory of atmospheric emissions from transport, industrial, energy, mining and residential activities in Chile | Earth System Science Data | Álamos, N.; Huneeus, N.; Opazo, M.; Osses, M.; Puja, S.; Pantoja, N.; Denier van der Gon, H.; Schueftan, A.; Reyes, R.; Calvo, R. | 2022 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/essd-14-361-2022 | https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/361/2022/ | 361-379 | Vol: 14 Issue: 1 | 1866-3516 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Abstract. This study presents the first high-resolution national inventory
of anthropogenic emissions for Chile (Inventario Nacional de Emisiones Antropogénicas, INEMA). Emissions for the vehicular, industrial, energy, mining and residential sectors are estimated for the
period 2015–2017 and spatially distributed onto a high-resolution grid (approximately 1 km×1 km). The pollutants included are CO2, NOx, SO2,
CO, VOCs (volatile organic compounds), NH3 and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) for
all sectors. CH4 and black carbon are included for transport and
residential sources, while arsenic, benzene, mercury, lead, toluene, and
polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furan (PCDD/F) are estimated for
energy, mining and industrial sources. New activity data and emissions
factors are compiled to estimate emissions, which are subsequently spatially
distributed using census data and Chile's road network
information. The estimated annual average total national emissions of PM10 and
PM2.5 during the study period are 191 and 173kt a−1 (kilotons per year),
respectively. The residential sector is responsible for over 90 % of these
emissions. This sector also emits 81 % and 87 % of total CO and VOC,
respectively. On the other hand, the energy and industry sectors contribute
significantly to NH3, SO2 and CO2 emissions, while the transport
sector dominates NOx and CO2 emissions, and the mining sector dominates
SO2 emissions. In general, emissions of anthropogenic air pollutants
and CO2 in northern Chile are dominated by mining activities as well as
thermoelectric power plants, while in central Chile the dominant sources are
transport and residential emissions. The latter also mostly dominates
emissions in southern Chile, which has a much colder climate. Preliminary
analysis revealed the dominant role of the emission factors in the final
emission uncertainty. Nevertheless, uncertainty in activity data also
contributes as suggested by the difference in CO2 emissions between
INEMA and EDGAR (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research). A comparison between these two inventories also revealed
considerable differences for all pollutants in terms of magnitude and
sectoral contribution, especially for the residential sector. EDGAR presents
larger emissions for most of the pollutants except for CH4 and
PM2.5. The differences between both inventories can partly be
explained by the use of different emission factors, in particular for the
residential sector, where emission factors incorporate information on
firewood and local operation conditions. Although both inventories use
similar emission factors, differences in CO2 emissions between both
inventories indicate biases in the quantification of the activity. This inventory (available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4784286, Alamos et al., 2021) will
support the design of policies that seek to mitigate climate change and
improve air quality by providing policymakers, stakeholders and scientists
with qualified scientific spatially explicit emission information. |
A distributed resistance inverse method for flow obstacle identification from internal velocity measurements | Inverse Problems | Aguayo, J.; Bertoglio, C.; Osses, A. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1088/1361-6420/abced8 | https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1361-6420/abced8 | 025010 | Vol: 37 Issue: 2 | 0266-5611, 1361-6420 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | We present a penalization parameter method for obstacle identification in an incompressible fluid flow for a modified version of the Oseen equations. The proposed method consists in adding a high resistance potential to the system such that some subset of its boundary support represents the obstacle. This allows to work in a fixed domain and highly simplify the solution of the inverse problem via some suitable cost functional. Existence of minimizers and first and second order optimality conditions are derived through the differentiability of the solutions of the Oseen equation with respect to the potential. Finally, several numerical experiments using Navier–Stokes flow illustrate the applicability of the method, for the localization of a bi-dimensional cardiac valve from MRI and ultrasound flow type imaging data. |
Evaluating adaptation to drought in a changing climate: experience at the local scale in the Aconcagua Valley | Climate and Development | Aldunce, P.; Lillo-Ortega, G.; Araya-Valenzuela, D.; Maldonado-Portilla, P.; Gallardo, L. | 2021 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1080/17565529.2021.1893150 | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17565529.2021.1893150 | 121-132 | Vol: 14 Issue: 2 | 1756-5529, 1756-5537 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SSCI) | | English | Since 2010, a severe drought has affected central Chile, resulting in losses that prompt the need to evaluate and improve adaptation responses. The evaluation process requires the engagement of multiple actors in order to collect knowledge of their experiences and to inform future design and implementation of adaptation responses. A case study was conducted in four counties of the Aconcagua Valley, Chile, to evaluate the usefulness of existing drought response measures, and to identify strengths and weaknesses, and relevant actors’ recommendations for overcoming them. We applied the Index for the Usefulness of Adaptation Practices (IUPA), a multi-criteria tool that systematically identifies the perceived usefulness of measures. The most salient strengths of the evaluated measures were: replicability, pertinence, and efficacy; representing key factors that could facilitate the implementation of drought responses in similar contexts. The most salient weaknesses were: lack of integration with other policy domains and projects, low environmental protection, diminished autonomy in decision-making, and inequity. Proposed recommendations to overcome these weaknesses have real potential for implementation because they emerged from local actors. Results present empirical evidence of the utility of participatory approaches for a context-specific evaluation of measures, contributing to enhance adaptation to climate variability and change. |
Enfoque Transformación: Adaptación | | Aldunce, P.; Rojas, M.; Guevara, G.; Álvarez, C.; Billi, M.; Ibarra, C.; Sapiains, R. | 2021 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/transformacion_adaptacion.pdf | | | | | | | El presente documento es un marco conceptual para la incorporación del enfoque
de transformación en las investigaciones de cambio climático con énfasis en la
adaptación y tiene el propósito de apoyar la aplicación del enfoque al trabajo de
investigación del (CR)2 a través de los Temas Integrativos de Floración de Algas Nocivas (FAN), de Seguridad Hídrica (TISHi) y de Gobernanza climática de los elementos.
El enfoque de transformación se compone de distintos conceptos y alcances, de los
que este documento presenta lo medular en tres secciones: (1) Conceptualización
de la transformación y conceptos relacionados; (2) Transformación y adaptación; y
(3) Preguntas orientadoras para la implementación del enfoque de la transformación. |
Conocimiento técnico-científico en el conflicto hídrico en Chile | Revista Mad | Allendes, A.; Silva, F.; Fragkou, M.; Moraga, P.; Urquiza, A. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.5354/0719-0527.2021.65874 | https://revistas.uchile.cl/index.php/RMAD/article/view/65874 | 99-119 | Issue: 45 | 0718-0527 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | | Spanish | El presente artículo propone un análisis del uso del cono |
Radiocarbon bomb-peak signal in tree-rings from the tropical Andes register low latitude atmospheric dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere | Science of The Total Environment | Ancapichún, S.; De Pol-Holz, R.; Christie, D.; Santos, G.; Collado-Fabbri, S.; Garreaud, R.; Lambert, F.; Orfanoz-Cheuquelaf, A.; Rojas, M.; Southon, J.; Turnbull, J.; Creasman, P. | 2021 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145126 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969721001923 | 145126 | Vol: 774 | 00489697 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | South American tropical climate is strongly related to the tropical low-pressure belt associated with the South American monsoon system. Despite its central societal role as a modulating agent of rainfall in tropical South America, its long-term dynamical variability is still poorly understood. Here we combine a new (and world's highest) tree-ring 14C record from the Altiplano plateau in the central Andes with other 14C records from the Southern Hemisphere during the second half of the 20th century in order to elucidate the latitudinal gradients associated with the dissemination of the bomb 14C signal. Our tree-ring 14C record faithfully captured the bomb signal of the 1960's with an excellent match to atmospheric 14C measured in New Zealand but with significant differences with a recent record from Southeast Brazil located at almost equal latitude. These results imply that the spreading of the bomb signal throughout the Southern Hemisphere was a complex process that depended on atmospheric dynamics and surface topography generating reversals on the expected north-south gradient in certain years. We applied air-parcel modeling based on climate data to disentangle their different geographical provenances and their preformed (reservoir affected) radiocarbon content. We found that air parcel trajectories arriving at the Altiplano during the bomb period were sourced i) from the boundary layer in contact with the Pacific Ocean (41%), ii) from the upper troposphere (air above the boundary layer, with no contact with oceanic or continental carbon reservoirs) (38%) and iii) from the Amazon basin (21%). Based on these results we estimated the ∆14C endmember values for the different carbon reservoirs affecting our record which suggest that the Amazon basin biospheric 14C isoflux could have been reversed from negative to positive as early as the beginning of the 1970's. This would imply a much faster carbon turnover rate in the Amazon than previously modelled. |
Lipschitz Stability for Backward Heat Equation with Application to Fluorescence Microscopy | SIAM Journal on Mathematical Analysis | Arratia, P.; Courdurier, M.; Cueva, E.; Osses, A.; Palacios, B. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1137/20M1374183 | https://epubs.siam.org/doi/10.1137/20M1374183 | 5948-5978 | Vol: 53 Issue: 5 | 0036-1410, 1095-7154 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | In this work we study a Lipschitz stability result in the reconstruction of a compactly supported initial temperature for the heat equation in Rn, from measurements along a positive time interval and over an open set containing its support. We employ a nonconstructive method which ensures the existence of the stability constant, but it is not explicit in terms of the parameters of the problem. The main ingredients in our method are the compactness of support of the initial condition and the explicit dependency of solutions to the heat equation with respect to it. By means of Carleman estimates we obtain an analogous result for the case when the observation is made along an exterior region ω × (τ, T), such that the unobserved part Rn\ω is bounded. In the latter setting, the method of Carleman estimates gives a general conditional logarithmic stability result when initial temperatures belong to a certain admissible set, without the assumption of compactness of support and allowing an explicit stability constant. Furthermore, we apply these results to deduce similar stability inequalities for the heat equation in R and with measurements available on a curve contained in R ×[0, ∞), leading to the derivation of stability estimates for an inverse problem arising in 2D fluorescence microscopy. In order to further understand this Lipschitz stability, in particular, the magnitude of its stability constant with respect to the parameters of the problem, a numerical reconstruction is presented based on the construction of a linear system for the inverse problem in fluorescence microscopy. We investigate the stability constant by analyzing the condition number of the corresponding matrix. © 2021 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics |
Climate change perception, vulnerability, and readiness: inter-country variability and emerging patterns in Latin America | Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences | Azócar, G.; Billi, M.; Calvo, R.; Huneeus, N.; Lagos, M.; Sapiains, R.; Urquiza, A. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.1007/s13412-020-00639-0 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13412-020-00639-0 | 23-36 | Vol: 11 Issue: 1 | 2190-6483, 2190-6491 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | In Latin America, there is scarce comparative research on variables associated with the perception of climate change. This hinders the ability of governments to take mitigation and adaptation measures in the face of the phenomenon, as well as the ability of the population to cope with its effects. In order to fill that void, this research studies the relationship between climate change perception, vulnerability, and readiness in 17 countries of the region. To that end, perception indicators included in the Latinobarómetro 2017 survey are analyzed, contrasted with vulnerability and readiness indexes provided by the University of Notre Dame’s Global Adaptation Index. The analytical strategy includes the statistical description of the variables associated with the perception of climate change in countries of the region, clustering together those countries that display similar behavioral patterns in relation to their vulnerability and readiness indicators, as well as crosstabs with climate change indicators. The key findings indicate that it is possible to identify 3 patterns of behavior regarding the countries’ vulnerability and readiness, which account for high, intermediate, and low levels in those variables. These patterns indicate cross-cutting trends concerning variables such as the level of education and affinity for the market economy, as well as particularities differentiating each country from the rest. The main conclusion is the existence of a negative association between the affinity people express for the market economy and their acknowledgment of climate change as a relevant problem. © 2020, AESS. |
Major atmospheric particulate matter sources for glaciers in Coquimbo Region, Chile | Environmental Science and Pollution Research | Barraza, F.; Lambert, F.; MacDonell, S.; Sinclair, K.; Fernandoy, F.; Jorquera, H. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1007/s11356-021-12933-7 | https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11356-021-12933-7 | 36817-36827 | Vol: 28 Issue: 27 | 0944-1344, 1614-7499 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Tapado Glacier is a subtropical mountain glacier in the Coquimbo region of Chile that has been continuously retreating during the
last 60 years due to diminishing precipitation rates and rising temperatures and likely due to a currently unknown influence from
atmospheric pollutant deposition. Climatic and meteorological impacts on this, and other, Andean glacier have been previously
studied; however, cryosphere changes driven by aerosols are still largely unknown. To contribute to the understanding of the
origin of aerosols and their dispersion, this study aims to identify natural and anthropogenic sources of air pollution deposited on
the Tapado Glacier (4500–5536 m a.s.l.) and their transport by using a receptor model (positive matrix factorization) together
with the concentration of major ions as proxies of air pollution deposited on this glacier. This model’s outcomes were
complemented with daily wind backward trajectories computed for a whole year using the HYSPLYT meteorological model.
Four sources were identified as the main contributors to major soluble ions in the Tapado surface snow. These sources are natural
Aeolian dust (38%) from the Atacama Desert (including mining sites), natural weathered sulphates (27%), anthropogenic nitrates
(25%), and coastal aerosols (10%). Coastal nitrate emissions and coastal aerosols are both sources with an important anthropogenic component, coming from La Serena and Coquimbo’s coastal cities. The crustal components and sulphate profiles are
similar to detritus dispersed from the glacier after wind erosion. Although the glacier is located over 4000 m above sea level,
anthropogenic pollutants reached this location. However, their contributions were smaller compared to natural contaminants. Our
findings can likely be extended to the nearest glaciers in Northern Chile, which have similar potential contaminant sources from
cities, ports, and thriving mining activity. However, these findings may not be suitable for southern Chilean glaciers, which are
closer to bigger cities and to smoke from residential heating prevalent in winter months and wildfires during the summer. |
Carleman-Based Reconstruction Algorithm for Waves | SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis | Baudouin, L.; de Buhan, M.; Ervedoza, S.; Osses, A. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1137/20M1315798 | https://epubs.siam.org/doi/10.1137/20M1315798 | 998-1039 | Vol: 59 Issue: 2 | 0036-1429, 1095-7170 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | We present a globally convergent numerical algorithm based on global Carleman estimates to reconstruct the speed of wave propagation in a bounded domain with Dirichlet boundary conditions from a single measurement of the boundary flux of the solutions in a finite time interval. The global convergence of the proposed algorithm naturally arises from the proof of the Lipschitz stability of the corresponding inverse problem for both sufficiently large observation time and boundary using global Carleman inequalities. The speed of propagation is supposed to be independent of time but varying in space with a trace and normal derivative known at the boundary and belonging to a certain admissible set that limits the speed fluctuations with respect to a given exterior point x0. In order to recover the speed, we also require a single experiment with null initial velocity and initial deformation having some monotonicity properties in the direction of x - x0. We perform numerical simulations in the discrete setting in order to illustrate and to validate the feasibility of the algorithm in both one and two dimensions in space. As proved theoretically, we verify that the numerical reconstruction is achieved for any admissible initial guess, even in the presence of small random disturbances on the measurements. © 2021 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics |
Aporte de un sistema predictivo de contraloría médica en la gestión de licencias médicas electrónicas | Revista Chilena de Salud Pública | Bernales, B.; Bravo, S.; Causa, L.; Gómez, N.; Valdés, M. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5354/0719-5281.2020.61265 | https://revistasaludpublica.uchile.cl/index.php/RCSP/article/view/61265 | 115 | Vol: 24 Issue: 2 | 0719-5281, 0717-3652 | | | | Introducción: El retraso del procesamiento de las licencias médicas (LMs) representa un problema de salud pública en Chile, considerando que esto afecta el pago del subsidio a las personas destinado a realizar el reposo médico prescrito mientras no se pueda trabajar. El objetivo de este estudio fue explorar las diferencias en el tiempo de procesamiento de las licencias médicas electrónicas (LMEs) evaluadas por contraloría médica (CM) y las evaluadas por un sistema predictivo de contraloría médica (SPCM) basado en redes neuronales artificiales. Materiales y métodos: El tiempo de procesamiento de LMEs procesadas con SPCM fue comparado con el tiempo de procesamiento de LMEs examinadas solo con CM, usando curvas de Kaplan Meier, prueba de log-rank y modelos multivariados de Cox. Resultados: La tasa de procesamiento del SPCM fue entre 1,7 a 5,5 veces más rápida que la tasa de procesamiento de la CM, ajustando por potenciales confusores. Discusión: La implementación del SPCM permitió disminuir el tiempo de procesamiento de las LMEs, beneficiando a los trabajadores afiliados al seguro público. |
Informe a las Naciones: Gobernanza Climática de los Elementos. Hacia una gobernanza climática del agua, el aire, el fuego y la tierra en Chile, integrada, anticipatoria, socio-ecosistémica y fundada en evidencia. | | Billi, M.; Moraga, P.; Aliste, E, E.; Maillet, A.; O'Ryan, R.; Sapiains A., R.; Bórquez, R.; Aldunce, P.; Azócar, G.; Blanco, G.; Carrasco, N.; Galleguillos, M.; Hervé, D.; Ibarra, C.; Gallardo, L.; Inostroza, V.; Lambert, F.; Manuschevic, D.; Martínez, F.; Osses, M.; Rivas, N.; Rojas, M.; Seguel, R... | 2021 | Agua y Extremos; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | | https://bit.ly/3JdvVbd | 69 | | | cr2.cl | | | La humanidad se ha vuelto una de las mayores fuerzas transformadoras del planeta, generando cambios significativos (y en ocasiones irreversibles) en los
equilibrios geofísicos y ecológicos, con consecuencias
potencialmente catastróficas y en parte aún desconocidas (Foster et al., 2017; Rockström et al., 2009; Steffen
et al., 2007). Entre todas estas alteraciones, el cambio
climático adquiere una importancia preponderante
debido a la magnitud y escala de sus posibles consecuencias, así como por la complejidad y las controversias que ha caracterizado los intentos de hacerle frente
(de Coninck et al., 2018; IPCC, 2018). Contemplar este escenario implica un doble dilema. Por un lado, supone la
necesidad de acciones urgentes, concertadas y transformativas, en múltiples escalas y dominios, que lleven
a hacerse cargo de los forzantes que causan el cambio
climático, sus efectos significativos y desiguales en distintos territorios y poblaciones. Por el otro, se enfrenta
a la insuficiencia, parcialidad y limitación demostrada
por los modelos tradicionales de gobernanza para enfrentar estos desafíos. |
Report to the Nations Climate Governance of the Elements. Towards an Integrated, anticipatory, socio- ecosystemic and evidence- based climate governance of water, air, fire and land. | | Billi, M.; Moraga, P.; Aliste, E, E.; Maillet, A.; O'Ryan, R.; Sapiains A., R.; Bórquez, R.; Aldunce, P.; Azócar, G.; Blanco, G.; Carrasco, N.; Galleguillos, M.; Hervé, D.; Ibarra, C.; Gallardo, L.; Inostroza, V.; Lambert, F.; Manuschevic, D.; Martínez, F.; Osses, M.; Rivas, N.; Rojas, M.; Seguel, R... | 2021 | Agua y Extremos; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | | https://bit.ly/3JdvVbd | 69 | | | | | | Humanity has become one of the greatest transformative forces of the planet, generating significant (and
sometimes irreversible) changes in geophysical and
ecological balances with potentially catastrophic and
partly still unknown consequences (Foster et al., 2017;
Rockström et al., 2009; Steffen et al, 2007). Among all
these alterations, climate change possesses predominant importance due to the magnitude and scale of
its potential consequences, as well as the complexity
and the controversies that have characterized the attempts to address it (Coninck et al, 2018; IPCC, 2018).
Contemplating this scenario entails a double dilemma.
On one hand, it implies the need for urgent, coordinated and transformative actions on multiple scales and
domains that address the drivers that cause climate
change, as well as its significant and unequal effects
on different territories and populations. On the other,
it faces the insufficiency, biases and limitations shown
by traditional governance models in dealing with these
challenges. |
Escuelas Seguras en tiempos del COVID-19 | | Brevis, W.; Cortés, S.; Duarte, I.; Fica, D.; Förster, F.; Martínez, S.; Rojas, M.; Repetto, P.; Rondanelli, R.; Valdés, M. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras | | https://portaluchile.uchile.cl/documentos/escuelas-seguras-en-tiempos-del-covid-19_176441_0_4940.pdf | | | | | | | v1.3 |
Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system | Nature Geoscience | Brovkin, V.; Brook, E.; Williams, J.; Bathiany, S.; Lenton, T.; Barton, M.; DeConto, R.; Donges, J.; Ganopolski, A.; McManus, J.; Praetorius, S.; de Vernal, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Cheng, H.; Claussen, M.; Crucifix, M.; Gallopín, G.; Iglesias, V.; Kaufman, D.; Kleinen, T.; Lambert, F.; van der Leeuw, S.;... | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5 | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00790-5 | 550-558 | Vol: 14 Issue: 8 | 1752-0894, 1752-0908 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system. |
Northern Chile intermediate-depth earthquakes controlled by plate hydration | Geophysical Journal International | Cabrera, L.; Ruiz, S.; Poli, P.; Contreras-Reyes, E.; Osses, A.; Mancini, R. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1093/gji/ggaa565 | https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/226/1/78/5998227 | 78-90 | Vol: 226 Issue: 1 | 0956-540X, 1365-246X | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | SUMMARY
We investigate the variations of the seismic source properties and aftershock activity using kinematic inversions and template-matching for six large magnitude intermediate-depth earthquakes occurred in northern Chile. Results show similar rupture geometry and stress drop values between 7 and 30 MPa. Conversely, aftershock productivity systematically decreases for the deeper events within the slab. Particularly, there is a dramatic decrease in aftershock activity below the 400–450 °C isotherm depth, which separates high- and low-hydrated zones. The events exhibit tensional focal mechanisms at unexpected depths within the slab, suggesting a deepening of the neutral plane, where the extensional regimen reaches the 700–800 °C isotherm depth. We interpret the reduction of aftershocks in the lower part of the extensional regime as the absence of a hydrated-slab at those depths. Our finding highlights the role of the thermal structure and fluids in the subducting plate in controlling the intermediated-depth seismic activity and shed new light in their causative mechanism. |
Desarrollo de indicadores de pobreza energética en América Latina y el Caribe | Recursos naturales y desarrollo, Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) | Calvo, R.; Alamos, N.; Billi, M.; Urquiza, A.; Contreras Lisperguer, R. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | | https://www.cepal.org/es/publicaciones/47216-desarrollo-indicadores-pobreza-energetica-america-latina-caribe | 1-88 | Vol: Santiago, Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) Issue: 207 | 2664-4541 | | | Spanish | Garantizar el acceso a una energía asequible, segura y sostenible para todos y todas es un pilar fundamentalde los objetivos de desarrollo sostenible, siendo uno de los elementos base para la satisfacción de una gran variedad de necesidades humanas, el desarrollo económico y humano. Sin embargo, estudios recientes en América Latina y el Caribe han evidenciado las condiciones de acceso desigual a servicios energéticos de calidad en la región, documentando la exposición de una proporción relevante de la población a diversas barreras en el acceso a energía: falta de electrificación, uso de combustibles contaminantes, nula o deficiente aislación térmica de las viviendas, alto gasto en servicios energéticos, entre otras.
En este marco, el Observatorio Regional de Energías Sostenibles (ROSE) de la CEPAL, está realizando esfuerzos para poder cuantificar en la región la pobreza energética. Este informe complementa el reporte anterior publicado por la CEPAL, “Seguridad hídrica y energética en América Latina y el Caribe: definición y aproximación territorial para el análisis de brechas y riesgos de la población”, en dos aspectos. En primer lugar, se busca aportar en el debate de política pública sobre pobreza energética en América Latina y el Caribe, en base a la propuesta conceptual que define a la pobreza energética como un fenómeno multidimensional y situado desde una perspectiva territorial introducida por la CEPAL, facilitando una mejor integración de los conceptos de seguridad y transición que permita una perspectiva integral de los desafíos en materia de energía de los países de la región. Y, en segundo lugar, profundiza el trabajo realizado por la CEPAL ampliando la mirada de la pobreza energética más allá de la electrificación, evidenciando, a través de diversos indicadores, las múltiples formas de privación del acceso equitativo a energía de calidad y los diversos impactos que esto tiene en los hogares que la enfrentan. |
Territorial Energy Vulnerability Assessment to Enhance Just Energy Transition of Cities | Frontiers in Sustainable Cities | Calvo, R.; Amigo, C.; Billi, M.; Fleischmann, M.; Urquiza, A.; Álamos, N.; Navea, J. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.3389/frsc.2021.635976 | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frsc.2021.635976/full | 635976 | Vol: 3 | 2624-9634 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Energy poverty is a crucial concept in current global energy policy, both for the importance of securing equitable access to high-quality energy services to all human populations and to advance toward a just energy transition to a decarbonized economy. Nonetheless, one of the limitations of this concept due to its focus at the household scale, it has tended to omit relevant energy conditions at a territorial scale, which can also be a dimension of significant deprivation (e.g., transportation, schools, hospitals, public services, industrial uses among others.). On the other hand, energy services are highly dependent on context: on the geographic, ecological, technical, economic, and sociocultural conditions. This context-dependency determines the range of energy and technological alternatives available in a territory. Hence, a conceptual framework is required to better understand the starting point to a just energy transition, capable of integrating the complexity of socio-techno-ecological systems. To fill this gap, we present a framework based on the concept of Territorial Energy Vulnerability (TEV), defined as the propensity of a territory to not guarantee equitable access—in quantity and quality—to resilient energy services that allow the sustainable human and economic development of its population. That is a greater probability of inequity in access to energy services or a significant impacts derived from socio-natural risks that make it incapable of guaranteeing a sustainable and resilient provision of these services. Built on state-of-the-art conceptualizations of risk, we develop an indicator-based framework on vulnerability understood as the combination of sensitivity and resilience characteristics of socio-techno-ecological systems. Sensitivity relates to economic, demographic, infrastructure, technology, culture, and knowledge characteristics of socio-techno-ecological components. Meanwhile, resilience is presented in a three-dimensional framework based on flexibility, register, and self-transformation capacity of socio-techno-ecological systems. An application of this framework is developed using three case studies: Arica, Los Andes and Coyhaique, all Chilean cities with diverse ecological, technical, economic, and sociocultural conditions that shape territorial vulnerability. Using this framework as a diagnostic tool, the development of a just energy transition could adapt existing concepts of energy poverty and decarbonization pathways into context-specific guidelines and policies. |
Present‐Day Patagonian Dust Emissions: Combining Surface Visibility, Mass Flux, and Reanalysis Data | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres | Cosentino, N.; Gaiero, D.; Lambert, F. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1029/2020JD034459 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD034459 | art: e2020JD034459 | Vol: 126 Issue: 16 | 2169-897X | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | The magnitude of the climatic forcing associated with mineral dust aerosols remains uncertain due in part to a lack of observations on dust sources. While modeling and satellite studies provide spatially extensive constraints, they must be supported by surface-validating dust monitoring. Southern South America is the main dust source to the southern oceans (>45°S), a region of low biological productivity potentially susceptible to increased micronutrient fertilization through dust deposition, as well as one of the main dust sources to Antarctica, implying long-range transport of dust from Patagonia and potentially affecting snow cover albedo. We present multiyear time series of dust-related visibility reduction (DRVR) and dust mass flux in Patagonia. We find that local DRVR is partly controlled by long-term (i.e., months) water deficit, while same-day conditions play a smaller role, reflective of water retention properties of fine-grained dust-emitting soils in low-moisture conditions. This is supported independently by reanalysis data showing that large-scale dust outbreaks are usually associated with anomalously high long-term water deficit. By combining visibility data, surface dust sampling, and particle dispersion modeling, we derive regional dust emission rates. Our results suggest that the inclusion of long-term soil hydrologic balance parameterizations under low-moisture conditions may improve the performance of dust emission schemes in Earth system models. |
Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk in Women with Periodontal Diseases According to C-reactive Protein Levels | Biomolecules | Da Venezia, C.; Hussein, N.; Hernández, M.; Contreras, J.; Morales, A.; Valdés, M.; Rojas, F.; Matamala, L.; Hernández-Ríos, P. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.3390/biom11081238 | https://www.mdpi.com/2218-273X/11/8/1238 | 1238 | Vol: 11 Issue: 8 | 2218-273X | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are highly prevalent non-communicable diseases worldwide. Periodontitis may act as a non-traditional cardiovascular risk (CVR) factor, linked by a low-grade systemic inflammation mediated by C-reactive protein (CRP). Patients with periodontitis reported higher serum CRP levels; however, a CRP systemic and periodontal correlation in gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) and its CVR impact have been barely studied. We aimed to assess the association between periodontal diseases and CVR in a group of adult women, based on serum high-sensitivity CRP (hs-CRP) levels; and secondly, to determine the association between serum and GCF CRP levels. Gingival crevicular fluid and blood samples were obtained from women with periodontitis, gingivitis, and healthy controls. Serum and GCF CRP were determined by turbidimetric method and Luminex technology, respectively. Data were analyzed and adjusted by CVR factors. All women presented moderate CVR, without an evident association between serum hs-CRP levels and periodontal diseases. While serum hs-CRP concentrations did not significantly differ between groups, patients with gingivitis and periodontitis showed higher CRP levels in GCF, which positively correlated to CRP detection in serum. |
Landscape Engineering Impacts the Long-Term Stability of Agricultural Populations | Human Ecology | Freeman, J.; Anderies, J.; Beckman, N.; Robinson, E.; Baggio, J.; Bird, D.; Nicholson, C.; Finley, J.; Capriles, J.; Gil, A.; Byers, D.; Gayo, E.; Latorre, C. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1007/s10745-021-00242-z | https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10745-021-00242-z | 369-382 | Vol: 49 Issue: 4 | 0300-7839, 1572-9915 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SSCI) | | English | Explaining the stability of human populations provides knowledge for understanding the resilience of human societies to environmental change. Here, we use archaeological radiocarbon records to evaluate a hypothesis drawn from resilience thinking that may explain the stability of human populations: Faced with long-term increases in population density, greater variability in the production of food leads to less stable populations, while lower variability leads to more stable populations. However, increased population stability may come with the cost of larger collapses in response to rare, large-scale environmental perturbations. Our results partially support this hypothesis. Agricultural societies that relied on extensive landscape engineering to intensify production and tightly control variability in the production of food experienced the most stability. Contrary to the hypothesis, these societies also experienced the least severe population declines. We propose that the interrelationship between landscape engineering and increased political-economic complexity reduces the magnitude of population collapses in a region. |
Crossing a critical threshold: Accelerated and widespread land use changes drive recent carbon and nitrogen dynamics in Vichuquén Lake (35°S) in central Chile | Science of The Total Environment | Fuentealba, M.; Latorre, C.; Frugone-Álvarez, M.; Sarricolea, P.; Godoy-Aguirre, C.; Armesto, J.; Villacís, L.; Laura Carrevedo, M.; Meseguer-Ruiz, O.; Valero-Garcés, B. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148209 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969721032800 | 148209 | Vol: 791 | 00489697 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Global afforestation/deforestation processes (e.g., Amazon deforestation and Europe afforestation) create new anthropogenic controls on carbon cycling and nutrient supply that have not been fully assessed. Here, we use a watershed-lake dynamics approach to investigate how human-induced land cover changes have altered nutrient transference during the last 700 years in a mediterranean coastal area (Vichuquén Lake). We compare our multiproxy reconstruction with historical documentation and use satellite images to reconstruct land use/cover changes for the last 45 years. Historical landscape changes, including those during the indigenous settlements, Spanish conquest, and the Chilean Republic up to mid-20th century did not significantly alter sediment and nutrient fluxes to the lake. In contrast, the largest changes in the lake-watershed system occurred in the mid-20th century and particularly after the 1980s–90s and were characterized by a large increase in total nitrogen and organic carbon fluxes as well as negative shifts in sediment δ15N and δ13C values. This shift was coeval with the largest land cover transformation in the Vichuquén watershed, as native forests nearly disappeared while anthropogenic tree plantations expanded up to 60% of the surface area. © 2021 Elsevier B.V. |
He Antropoceno i a Tire: he mata ꞌite he haka pūai | | Gallardo, L.; Rudnick, A.; Barraza, J.; Fleming, Z.; Rojas, M.; Gayó, E.; Aguirre, C.; Farías, L.; Boisier, J.; Garreaud, R.; Barría, P.; Miranda, A.; Lara, A.; Gómez, S.; Arriagada, R. | 2021 | Agua y Extremos; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras | | https://bit.ly/3sAJOdv | | | | | | | Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia mew (CR)2, ta
iñ kvzawkan mew zujiyiñ fey ta nvxamkagelu Anxopozeno
zugu mew ta iñ inarumeael ka ta iñ gvnezuamael. Femgeci
ta cijkatuyiñ cumgeci cambio climático vñfitumapukey
kiñeke mapu mew Cile mew fanten mew, ta iñ kejuael
zugu mew cew ta cijkatugekey ka gvnezuamgekey weke
rvpv ta iñ kvme wimturpuael zugu mew mvlelu fanten
mew. Wvnelu ta inarumeyiñ ta pu registro geohistórico
pegeltulu cumgeci ta wizvmapukunurpukefuy kuyfi
mew ta cegen mapu mew Cile pigelu faciantv; fey mew
kvmeafuy wiñokintuliyiñ feyti mew kuyfi mew rupalu
ka kejuafulu sistemas socio-ecológicos zugu mew ta
kvpaialu. |
Anxopozeno Cile mew: Ta iñ inazuamfiel ka cumgeci amulerpuael | | Gallardo, L.; Rudnick, A.; Barraza, J.; Fleming, Z.; Rojas, M.; Gayó, E.; Aguirre, C.; Farías, L.; Boisier, J.; Garreaud, R.; Barría, P.; Miranda, A.; Lara, A.; Gómez, S.; Arriagada, R. | 2021 | Agua y Extremos; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras | | https://bit.ly/3FyHHL0 | | | | | | | Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia mew (CR)2, ta
iñ kvzawkan mew zujiyiñ fey ta nvxamkagelu Anxopozeno
zugu mew ta iñ inarumeael ka ta iñ gvnezuamael. Femgeci
ta cijkatuyiñ cumgeci cambio climático vñfitumapukey
kiñeke mapu mew Cile mew fanten mew, ta iñ kejuael
zugu mew cew ta cijkatugekey ka gvnezuamgekey weke
rvpv ta iñ kvme wimturpuael zugu mew mvlelu fanten
mew. Wvnelu ta inarumeyiñ ta pu registro geohistórico
pegeltulu cumgeci ta wizvmapukunurpukefuy kuyfi
mew ta cegen mapu mew Cile pigelu faciantv; fey mew
kvmeafuy wiñokintuliyiñ feyti mew kuyfi mew rupalu
ka kejuafulu sistemas socio-ecológicos zugu mew ta
kvpaialu. |
Summary for policymakers. The air we breathe: past, present and future - PM2.5 air pollution in Central and Southern Chile . | | Gayo, E.; Osses, M.; Urquiza, A.; Arriagada, R.; Huneeus, N.; Valdés, M.; Barraza, J.; Rudnick, A. | 2021 | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | | https://bit.ly/32xerpf | | | | | | | Air quality is a complex problem involving not only physical-chemical
factors, but also sociocultural, economic, and institutional variables.
The report “The air we breathe: past, present and future – PM2.5 air
pollution in Central and Southern Chile” focuses on the impacts and the role
played by the residential sector and its PM2.5 emissions, taking the above
factors and variables into account. This interdisciplinary research
integrates information from multiple databases, numerical simulations,
and interviews and workshops with diff erent stakeholders in order to
characterize not only current air quality but also the evolution of air
pollution since pre-Colombian times, and the factors influencing its future
evolution. |
Resumen para tomadores de decisiones. El aire que respiramos: pasado, presente y futuro - Contaminación atmosférica por MP2,5 en el centro y sur de Chile. | | Gayo, E.; Osses, M.; Urquiza, A.; Arriagada, R.; Huneeus, N.; Valdés, M.; Barraza, J.; Rudnick, A. | 2021 | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | | https://bit.ly/3z0dxO4 | | | | Not indexed | | | La calidad del aire es un problema complejo que no responde solo a factores
físico-químicos, sino que también a variables socioculturales, económicas e
institucionales. El informe “El aire que respiramos: pasado, presente y futuro
– Contaminación atmosférica por MP2,5 en el centro y sur de Chile” se centra en
los impactos y el rol que juega el sector residencial y sus emisiones de MP2,5
considerando estos diferentes factores. Esta investigación interdisciplinaria
integra múltiples bases de datos, simulaciones numéricas, resultados
de entrevistas y talleres con diversos actores para caracterizar no solo la
calidad del aire actual, sino que también la evolución de la contaminación
atmosférica desde épocas precolombinas y los factores que influyen en su
evolución futura. |
Paving the road for electric vehicles: Lessons from a randomized experiment in an introduction stage market | Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice | Guevara, C.; Figueroa, E.; Munizaga, M. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.tra.2021.09.011 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S096585642100241X | 326-340 | Vol: 153 | 09658564 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE; SSCI) | | English | We study attitudes, perceptions, and valuations of a convenience sample of Chilean employees from an electric distribution company who applied for a subsidized electric vehicle (EV) acquisition program. The subsidy was randomly assigned among the interested applicants. We use this data in an experiment to assess the impact that being a user, or a non-user of an EV has on the factors under study, using focus groups and a stated preference (SP) experiment. In the focus groups, users mentioned relatively more benefits and barriers of EVs, while non-users spontaneously stated that a limited charging network at the urban level could be an issue. The SP survey suggested that being a user did not trigger a change in environmental attitudes; on the other hand, it significantly boosted perceptions of maintenance costs and driving range. Additionally, discrete choice models estimated from the SP data suggested a possibly null willingness to pay for urban charging infrastructure, expressed as a percentage of current gas stations, among the user group. We discuss possible policy implications that can be inferred from this analysis, considering the size and source limitations of the available sample. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd |
Transdisciplinary university in the framework of the knowledge society. Discursive tensions within Universidad de Chile | Pensamiento Educativo: Revista de Investigación Educacional Latinoamericana | Henriquez, A.; Billi, M.; Faúndez, V.; Labraña, J.; Neira Espinoza, C.; Urquiza, A. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.7764/PEL.58.1.2021.10 | http://ojs.uc.cl/index.php/pel/article/view/29137 | | Vol: 58 Issue: 1 | | Not indexed | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | En el marco de las transformaciones sociales contemporáneas, y del nuevo rol adoptado por las universidades, la transdisciplina ha ido ganando un reconocimiento creciente como aproximación para comprender fenómenos que no pueden ser abordados por el modelo tradicional de especialización disciplinar, como el cambio climático, la desigualdad o, recientemente, las pandemias. Sin embargo, existe escaso estudio de experiencias específicas que ayuden a entender qué implica, qué finalidad tiene y cómo puede lograrse una mayor focalización transdisciplinaria en las universidades. Para reducir esta brecha, este artículo analiza los resultados de un diálogo participativo realizado al interior de la Universidad de Chile, examinando distintas narrativas respecto de la emergencia, oportunidades y obstáculos de la transdisciplina; los que, a su vez, dicen relación con las dinámicas históricas, organizacionales y culturales propias de la trayectoria adoptada por esta institución, y la educación superior en general, en el país: i) el compromiso social, inscrito en la tradición y misión académica de la universidad pública; ii) una promesa de novedad, innovación y transformación del quehacer científico y académico, asociada al modelo emergente de universidad emprendedora; y iii) la creciente demanda avanzada para una reforma profunda del sistema de educación superior en el país. |
Variación en la intensidad de la isla de calor urbana por efecto del cambio climático en ciudades chilenas | Geographicalia | Henríquez Ruiz, C.; Smith, P.; Contreras, P.; Qüense, J. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.26754/ojs_geoph/geoph.2021735114 | https://papiro.unizar.es/ojs/index.php/geographicalia/article/view/5114 | 133-154 | Issue: 73 | 2386-3021, 0210-8380 | Latindex | | | La Isla de Calor Urbano (ICU) es la principal característica del clima urbano y se define como la diferencia entre la temperatura urbana y la temperatura rural. Su existencia se explica por el diseño y materiales de construcción de la ciudad, superficies impermeables y no evapotranspirantes, y sus efectos son de diversa índole. La magnitud e intensidad de la ICU depende, a su vez, del tamaño de la ciudad y por ello, del volumen de población concentrada espacialmente. El objetivo de esta investigación es proponer una metodología que permita estimar la intensidad máxima de la ICU presente y futura mediante una aproximación de múltiples modelos (climáticos y de usos de suelo) y considerando los efectos del cambio climático. Los resultados demuestran que la ICU promedio de las principales ciudades chilenas analizadas es consistente con valores de estudios internacionales, destacando el caso del Gran Santiago que llegaría a tener una ICU mayor 10 ºC. |
The role of climate and disturbance regimes upon temperate rainforests during the Holocene: A stratigraphic perspective from Lago Fonk (∼40°S), northwestern Patagonia | Quaternary Science Reviews | Henríquez, C.; Moreno, P.; Lambert, F.; Alloway, B. | 2021 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.106890 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379121000974 | 106890 | Vol: 258 | 02773791 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Climate and disturbance regimes play key roles in shaping the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Despite this importance, very few stratigraphic studies in the temperate rainforests from northwestern Patagonia have explored this relationship in detail along a time continuum through the entire Holocene. Here we present a high-resolution fossil pollen and charcoal record from Lago Fonk (median resolution: 20 years), a small closed-basin lake in the lowlands of the Chilean Lake District (41°S), where wildfires and explosive volcanism have intermittently taken place during the Holocene, along with pronounced human-induced disturbance in post-colonial time. Our results show persistence of temperate rainforest throughout the Holocene, with changes in the composition and structure of Valdivian rainforests (VRF) at millennial timescales. We detect centennial-scale alternations in dominance between the VRF tree Eucryphia/Caldcluvia and generalist trees found in VRF and North Patagonian rainforests after ∼6.5 cal ka BP. Intervals dominated by VRF coincide with enhanced fire occurrence signaling negative hydroclimate anomalies with a mean duration of ∼150 years, which alternate with positive hydroclimate anomalies lasting ∼312 years on average.
Our results suggest that the magnitude and rapidity of vegetation changes detected at 10.2–9.9, 4.0–3.0, ∼1.0, and ∼0.7 cal ka BP were amplified by disturbance regimes, and led to the establishment and maintenance of Eucryphia/Caldcluvia-dominated forests in the Longitudinal Valley of the Chilean Lake District. On several occasions the higher incidence of fire disturbance during warm/dry climate intervals coincided with episodes of heightened explosive volcanic activity from multiple eruptive centers within the Southern Andean Volcanic Zone. |
Estimating coastal flood hazard of Tossa de Mar, Spain: a combined model – data interviews approach | Natural Hazards | Hernandez-Mora, M.; Meseguer-Ruiz, O.; Karas, C.; Lambert, F. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1007/s11069-021-04914-3 | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-021-04914-3 | 2153-2171 | Vol: 109 Issue: 3 | 0921-030X, 1573-0840 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Human settlements in coastal areas are highly vulnerable to extreme events, especially
in the Mediterranean area, which houses a large number of tourists during the summer
and autumn months. It is important to carry out hazard studies at local scale to improve
our understanding of natural and anthropogenic processes involved in episodes of coastal
fooding. We reconstruct and characterize an extreme weather event in Tossa de Mar
(northeastern Spain) and the subsequent urban fooding that occurred in 2008. Our results
show food heights up to 1.27 m, with the maximum occurring between 24 and 64 h after
the start of the event. This is broadly consistent with the reconstructions obtained through
interviews and photographs. Based on model simulations, we produce a hazard map for
the town based on hydrodynamic scenarios for diferent return periods. We show that the
southern part of the town is more susceptible to fooding, whereas the northern part is
relatively resilient to extreme events. We recommend the adaption of a currently existing
dune by adding vegetation and slightly increasing its height. This low economic cost action
would signifcantly reduce fooding and increase resilience in this area. |
Road Traffic Noise on the Santa Marta City Tourist Route | Applied Sciences | Jiménez-Uribe, D.; Daniels, D.; Fleming, Z.; Vélez-Pereira, A. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.3390/app11167196 | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/16/7196 | 7196 | Vol: 11 Issue: 16 | 2076-3417 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The objective of this study was to determine the influence of vehicular traffic on the environmental noise levels of the Santa Marta City tourist route on the Colombian coast. An analysis of vehicle types and frequencies at various times of the day over nearly a year helped to track the main sources of environmental noise pollution. Five sampling points were selected, which were distributed over 12 km, with three classified as peripheral urban and two as suburban. The average traffic flow was 966 vehicles/h and was mainly composed of automobiles, with higher values in the peripheral urban area. The noise level was 103.3 dBA, with background and peak levels of 87.2 and 107.3 dBA, respectively. The noise level was higher during the day; however, there were no differences between weekdays and weekends. The results from the analysis of variance showed that the number of vehicles and the noise levels varied greatly according to the time of day and sampling point location. The peak and mean noise levels were correlated with the number of automobiles, buses and heavy vehicles. The mean noise levels were similar at all sample points despite the traffic flow varying, and the background noise was only correlated for automobiles (which varied much more than the heavy vehicles between day and night). |
La Construcción de la Contaminación Atmosférica como Problema Público, Santiago de Chile (1961-1978) | Historia Ambiental Latinoamericana y Caribeña (HALAC) revista de la Solcha | Labraña, J.; Folchi, M.; Urquiza, A.; Rivas, M. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.32991/2237-2717.2021V11I3.P149-177 | https://www.halacsolcha.org/index.php/halac/article/view/558 | 149-177 | Vol: 11 Issue: 3 | 2237-2717 | Scopus | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | Spanish | La finalidad de esta investigación es analizar los orígenes de la política pública de combate a la contaminación atmosférica en Santiago de Chile y, en particular, el rol que desempeñaron los científicos en este proceso. Para alcanzar este objetivo se examinaron fuentes documentales legislativas, notas del periódico “El Mercurio” y publicaciones científicas entre los años 1961 y 1978, aplicándose un análisis de contenido mixto. Los resultados sugieren que los expertos, haciendo uso de sus redes nacionales e internacionales, fueron capaces de convertir la calidad del aire en un problema de interés nacional que debía resolverse mediante la elaboración de una normativa integral validada por los resultados de la investigación académica y legitimada por una incipiente demanda social en el mismo sentido. Aquello condujo a la conformación de sucesivas comisiones técnico-políticas que asumieron la tarea de comprender el problema de la contaminación atmosférica y proponer medidas para su resolución. A pesar de la promulgación temprana de una legislación específica, la evidencia señala que la complejidad del problema de la contaminación superó la capacidad técnico-política que poseía el Estado para resolver el problema de manera efectiva, el cual se ha extendido hasta el presente. |
Regional patterns and temporal evolution of ocean iron fertilization and CO2 drawdown during the last glacial termination | Earth and Planetary Science Letters | Lambert, F.; Opazo, N.; Ridgwell, A.; Winckler, G.; Lamy, F.; Shaffer, G.; Kohfeld, K.; Ohgaito, R.; Albani, S.; Abe-Ouchi, A. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116675 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0012821X20306191 | 116675 | Vol: 554 | 0012821X | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | The last time Earth's climate experienced geologically rapid global warming was associated with the last glacial termination, when atmospheric CO2 concentrations rose from 180 ppmv during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 26-19 kaBP) to ∼260 ppmv by the early Holocene (12-8 kaBP). About one quarter of that difference is thought to be due to a stronger biological pump during glacial times, driven by increased aeolian dust deposition and hence greater iron availability in ocean surface waters. However, dust supply did not change uniformly or in synchrony over the deglacial transition and what is not known is the relative importance of different oceanic regions and how this may have changed in time. Using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we quantify the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 to regional changes in iron supply, and test six different global dust reconstructions in order to explore uncertainty in past dust changes. We confirm the Southern Ocean (>34°S) as the region most sensitive to iron fertilization, with the Atlantic and Pacific sectors accounting for about % and %, respectively, of the total CO2 reduction from global iron fertilization. However, the North Pacific contributes % to the total implying an important role for Northern Hemisphere processes in driving deglacial CO2 rise. In addition, our analysis reveals an unexpected regional-temporal disparity, and while Southern Hemisphere iron fertilization influences atmospheric CO2 relatively constantly throughout the termination the impact of the Northern Hemisphere only occurs during the later stages of the termination. |
Global resilience models and territories of the South. A critical review | International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction | Marin, J. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102541 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212420921005021 | 102541 | Vol: 66 | 22124209 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | The resilience of cities, regions and other territorial scales is defined by various conceptual frameworks and has since the 2000s constituted a growing scientific and technical field. Although literature points out the difficulty of implementing such a vague and ambiguous concept, a range of metrics, methodological frameworks and principles have emerged, using tools like composite indicators, qualitative assessment or stochastic modelling. Among these models some have been applied globally over the last ten years, for e.g. the City Resilience Framework developed for the 100 Resilient Cities network. This article proposes a discussion of these global resilience models in order to contribute to our understanding of how they are constructed, how they function, and their potential to transform territories. By using literature review and qualitative content analysis, four axes of inquiry are developed: translations and adaptations of the notion of resilience within hegemonic networks; socio-technical markers of resilience models; resilience as a device of neoliberal governmentality; the position of Latin America within the production of knowledge concerning resilience. This manuscript main contribution is to put into question some gaps or biases in our scientific outputs and models that we might be reproducing or legitimating, and that are worth cross-examine. Three key findings are: Evidenced biases in disciplinary associations of resilience; Evidenced gaps in using closed-form of modelling resilience that invisibilize important assumptions of territories and despolitize the concept; The North-South divide resilience knowledge production is not only quantitative but also expressed in the core of models and tools. |
Forecasting PM2.5 levels in Santiago de Chile using deep learning neural networks | Urban Climate | Menares, C.; Perez, P.; Parraguez, S.; Fleming, Z. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100906 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S221209552100136X | 100906 | Vol: 38 | 22120955 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Air pollution has been shown to have a direct effect on human health. In particular, PM2.5 has been proven to be related to cardiovascular and respiratory problems. Therefore, it is important to have accurate models to predict high pollution events for this and other pollutants. We present different models that forecast PM2.5 maximum concentrations using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based neural network and a Deep Feedforward Neural Network (DFFNN). Ten years of air pollution and meteorological measurements from the network of monitoring stations in the city of Santiago, Chile were used, focusing on the behaviour of three zones of the city. All missing values were rebuilt using a method based on discrete cosine transforms and photochemical predictors selected through unsupervised clustering. Deep learning techniques provide significant improvements compared to a traditional multi-layer neural networks, particularly the LSTM model configured with a 7-day memory window (synoptic scale of pollution patterns) can capture critical pollution events at sites with both primary and secondary air pollution problems. Furthermore, the LSTM model consistently outperform deterministic models currently used in Santiago, Chile. |
Encuesta sobre percepciones de la ciudadanía de Punta Arenas sobre cambio climático, gobernanza climática y aspectos constitucionales. | | Moraga, P.; Sapiain, R.; Aldunce, P.; Urquiza, A.; Rojas, M.; Medina, L.; Valenzuela, C.; Cornejo, C. | 2021 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | | https://bit.ly/3pxYatd | | | | | | | Entre agosto 202 y septiembre 2021, un equipo interdisciplinario de la Universidad de Chile, del Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2 y con el apoyo del Centro de Investigación GAIA Antártica (CIGA) de la Universidad de Magallanes, desarrolló el proyecto "Laboratorio social para la cosntrucción comunitaria de bases constitucionales para una sociedad resiliente al cambio climático, una perspectiva desde la Patagonia". |
La ciudad del mañana en la nueva constitución: Una mirada desde la Patagonia | | Moraga, P.; Sapiains A., R.; Rojas, M.; Medina, L.; Valenzuela, C.; Cornejo, C.; Pulgar, A.; Aldunce, P.; Urquiza, A.; Azócar, G.; Sepúlveda, B. | 2021 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | | https://www.cr2.cl/la-ciudad-del-manana-en-la-nueva-constitucion-una-mirada-desde-la-patagonia/ | | | | | | | Entre agosto 202 y septiembre 2021, un equipo interdisciplinario de la Universidad de Chile, del Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2 y con el apoyo del Centro de Investigación GAIA Antártica (CIGA) de la Universidad de Magallanes, desarrolló el proyecto "Laboratorio social para la cosntrucción comunitaria de bases constitucionales para una sociedad resiliente al cambio climático, una perspectiva desde la Patagonia". |
The state of science on severe air pollution episodes: Quantitative and qualitative analysis | Environment International | Morawska, L.; Zhu, T.; Liu, N.; Amouei Torkmahalleh, M.; de Fatima Andrade, M.; Barratt, B.; Broomandi, P.; Buonanno, G.; Carlos Belalcazar Ceron, L.; Chen, J.; Cheng, Y.; Evans, G.; Gavidia, M.; Guo, H.; Hanigan, I.; Hu, M.; Jeong, C.; Kelly, F.; Gallardo, L.; Kumar, P.; Lyu, X.; Mullins, B.; Nords... | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106732 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0160412021003573 | 106732 | Vol: 156 | 01604120 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Severe episodic air pollution blankets entire cities and regions and have a profound impact on humans and their activities. We compiled daily fine particle (PM2.5) data from 100 cities in five continents, investigated the trends of number, frequency, and duration of pollution episodes, and compared these with the baseline trend in air pollution. We showed that the factors contributing to these events are complex; however, long-term measures to abate emissions from all anthropogenic sources at all times is also the most efficient way to reduce the occurrence of severe air pollution events. In the short term, accurate forecasting systems of such events based on the meteorological conditions favouring their occurrence, together with effective emergency mitigation of anthropogenic sources, may lessen their magnitude and/or duration. However, there is no clear way of preventing events caused by natural sources affected by climate change, such as wildfires and desert dust outbreaks. |
Validation of 4D Flow based relative pressure maps in aortic flows | Medical Image Analysis | Nolte, D.; Urbina, J.; Sotelo, J.; Sok, L.; Montalba, C.; Valverde, I.; Osses, A.; Uribe, S.; Bertoglio, C. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.media.2021.102195 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1361841521002401 | 102195 | Vol: 74 | 13618415 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | While the clinical gold standard for pressure difference measurements is invasive catheterization, 4D Flow MRI is a promising tool for enabling a non-invasive quantification, by linking highly spatially resolved velocity measurements with pressure differences via the incompressible Navier–Stokes equations. In this work we provide a validation and comparison with phantom and clinical patient data of pressure difference maps estimators.
We compare the classical Pressure Poisson Estimator (PPE) and the new Stokes Estimator (STE) against catheter pressure measurements under a variety of stenosis severities and flow intensities. Specifically, we use several 4D Flow data sets of realistic aortic phantoms with different anatomic and hemodynamic severities and two patients with aortic coarctation. The phantom data sets are enriched by subsampling to lower resolutions, modification of the segmentation and addition of synthetic noise, in order to study the sensitivity of the pressure difference estimators to these factors.
Overall, the STE method yields more accurate results than the PPE method compared to catheterization data. The superiority of the STE becomes more evident at increasing Reynolds numbers with a better capacity of capturing pressure gradients in strongly convective flow regimes. The results indicate an improved robustness of the STE method with respect to variation in lumen segmentation. However, with heuristic removal of the wall-voxels, the PPE can reach a comparable accuracy for lower Reynolds’ numbers. |
Urban Heat Islands and Vulnerable Populations in a Mid-Size Coastal City in an Arid Environment | Atmosphere | Quintana-Talvac, C.; Corvacho-Ganahin, O.; Smith, P.; Sarricolea, P.; Prieto, M.; Meseguer-Ruiz, O. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.3390/atmos12070917 | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/7/917 | 917 | Vol: 12 Issue: 7 | 2073-4433 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Arica is a coastal city located in northern Chile, in the Atacama Desert. The behavior of surface temperatures in the city between 1985 and 2019 was studied using Landsat satellite images, leading to the identification of surface urban heat islands (SUHI), surface urban cold islands (SUCI), and average temperature zones. The higher intensities of the SUHI reach values of almost 45 °C and the SUCI lower values are below 13 °C. From the socioeconomic characterisation of the population based on indicators retrieved from the 2012 and 2017 population censuses, we identified that during the study period there was a lower presence of SUHI, but these were linked to spaces of lower socioeconomic level and, for the most part, would form new urban spaces within the city. On the other hand, SUCI had a greater spatial presence in the study area and in the urban morphology, being found mostly in areas of high socioeconomic level and in consolidated spaces with few possibilities of generating new constructions. |
Assessment of landscape transformation in protected areas | Environmental Impact Assessment Review | Ruiz Pereira, S.; Fernández, J.; Herrera, J.; Olea, J. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.eiar.2020.106472 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0195925520301347 | 106472 | Vol: 86 | 01959255 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SSCI) | | English | Mountain protected landscapes continuously endure conflicts of appropriation that bear inherent transformations. One type of direct intervention is by Commercial Concessions within these areas, affecting their landscape value. The aim is to determine conceptual gaps in Environmental Impact Studies regarding landscape assessment and propose a way to improve them in this sense.
Shortcomings regarding landscape are checked in different normative frameworks and tensions are analyzed through the case of a Commercial Concession grant within a Mountain Protected area in the South-Central Andes of Chile (38°22′S;71°35′W).
Weak or absent definitions of landscape are found in normative frames and Environmental Impact guidelines. A reductionism of landscape as mere viewshed units avoids a proper differentiation for several types of economic transformations and conservation management purposes therein. Hence, transformations affecting the inherent value of landscape are latent under monitoring and legislation abiding practices.
Tensions between protected areas and commercial concessions depend on landscape management strategies which are associated to capital gain uncertainties by risking the nonuse-value of landscape. This uncertainty as a natural insurance value can be integrated to conceptual analyses assessing landscape transformations and report their depreciation.
These transformations of landscape value are deemed necessary to be implemented in Environmental Impact Assessment without having to discretize bipartite purposes in protected areas by assessing landscape value through conceptual and economic analyses. |
Permafrost evolution in a mountain catchment near Santiago de Chile | Journal of South American Earth Sciences | Ruiz Pereira, S.; Marquardt, C.; Beriain, E.; Lambert, F. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.jsames.2021.103293 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0895981121001401 | 103293 | Vol: 109 | 08959811 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | The Chilean Central Andes near Santiago are a semi-arid region with substantial frozen water reserves in their high altitude cryosphere. Millions of people depend on the Andean cryosphere for freshwater supply. Over the last sixty years, global warming has altered the mountains’ water balance, as the temperature rose, precipitation decreased, and deglacierization exposed hundreds of square kilometers. The distribution of solid water stored in soil permafrost and the potential effects of climate change on it are unknown.
Here, we map favorable spots for permafrost occurrence at the “Monos de Agua” catchment, Aconcagua basin at 33°S, between 3600 and 5100 m a.s.l.. We identify these “cold spots” based on ground surface temperature and incoming solar radiation between 2017 and 2019. We suggest that these locations currently present permafrost and frozen water might actually be there. We confirmed a body of frozen water at one of these cold spots using an electrical resistivity survey.
Our mapping suggests that at least 15 ± 7% of the catchment's surface is underlain by permafrost. Permafrost occurrence begins around 3600 m a.s.l. with low probability and only at locations with favorable conditions of low exposure and isolation. Permafrost occurrence probability increases with altitude, with the largest fraction present above 4200 m a.s.l.
Our results suggest that the permafrost area in this region will decrease between 13 and 87% by the end of the century under the future global warming RCP scenarios. This event represents new challenges for the hydrological memory and water security planning in the Chilean Central Andes. |
Study of the urban microclimate using thermal UAV. The case of the mid-sized cities of Arica (arid) and Curicó (Mediterranean), Chile | Building and Environment | Smith, P.; Sarricolea, P.; Peralta, O.; Aguila, J.; Thomas, F. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.buildenv.2021.108372 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360132321007691 | 108372 | Vol: 206 | 03601323 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | The study of the urban microclimate requires detailed information that is not available in most cities. The monitoring of climate parameters is reduced to a limited number of stations that are useful for urban climate studies at local or zonal scales. Detailed information is generally obtained through field work and fixed sensors. There are some climate parameters that can be obtained from remote sensors, such as the surface emission temperature, however, this information is only available in medium or low-resolution images from satellite images. Currently, it is possible to generate detailed information with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV). There are not many UAVs that can capture information on the surface emission temperature and those that can are, in general, prohibitively expensive. Only a few years ago a low-cost drone became available, the Mavic 2 dual, equipped with a thermal sensor, which qualitatively captures information from the thermal field. This article proposes the study of the urban microclimate of two mid-size Chilean cities using thermal images captured with the Mavic 2 dual drone, for which it was first necessary to process the images and convert their values to degrees Celsius. The values obtained are compared with those derived from Modis and Landsat satellite images, evaluating the correlation of the information. |
A global observational analysis to understand changes in air quality during exceptionally low anthropogenic emission conditions | Environment International | Sokhi, R.; Singh, V.; Querol, X.; Finardi, S.; Targino, A.; Andrade, M.; Pavlovic, R.; Garland, R.; Massagué, J.; Kong, S.; Baklanov, A.; Ren, L.; Tarasova, O.; Carmichael, G.; Peuch, V.; Anand, V.; Arbilla, G.; Badali, K.; Beig, G.; Belalcazar, L.; Bolignano, A.; Brimblecombe, P.; Camacho, P.; Casa... | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106818 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0160412021004438 | 106818 | Vol: 157 | 01604120 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | This global study, which has been coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO/GAW) programme, aims to understand the behaviour of key air pollutant species during the COVID-19 pandemic period of exceptionally low emissions across the globe. We investigated the effects of the differences in both emissions and regional and local meteorology in 2020 compared with the period 2015–2019. By adopting a globally consistent approach, this comprehensive observational analysis focuses on changes in air quality in and around cities across the globe for the following air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, PMC (coarse fraction of PM), NO2, SO2, NOx, CO, O3 and the total gaseous oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) during the pre-lockdown, partial lockdown, full lockdown and two relaxation periods spanning from January to September 2020. The analysis is based on in situ ground-based air quality observations at over 540 traffic, background and rural stations, from 63 cities and covering 25 countries over seven geographical regions of the world. Anomalies in the air pollutant concentrations (increases or decreases during 2020 periods compared to equivalent 2015–2019 periods) were calculated and the possible effects of meteorological conditions were analysed by computing anomalies from ERA5 reanalyses and local observations for these periods. We observed a positive correlation between the reductions in NO2 and NOx concentrations and peoples’ mobility for most cities. A correlation between PMC and mobility changes was also seen for some Asian and South American cities. A clear signal was not observed for other pollutants, suggesting that sources besides vehicular emissions also substantially contributed to the change in air quality. As a global and regional overview of the changes in ambient concentrations of key air quality species, we observed decreases of up to about 70% in mean NO2 and between 30% and 40% in mean PM2.5 concentrations over 2020 full lockdown compared to the same period in 2015–2019. However, PM2.5 exhibited complex signals, even within the same region, with increases in some Spanish cities, attributed mainly to the long-range transport of African dust and/or biomass burning (corroborated with the analysis of NO2/CO ratio). Some Chinese cities showed similar increases in PM2.5 during the lockdown periods, but in this case, it was likely due to secondary PM formation. Changes in O3 concentrations were highly heterogeneous, with no overall change or small increases (as in the case of Europe), and positive anomalies of 25% and 30% in East Asia and South America, respectively, with Colombia showing the largest positive anomaly of ~70%. The SO2 anomalies were negative for 2020 compared to 2015–2019 (between ~25 to 60%) for all regions. For CO, negative anomalies were observed for all regions with the largest decrease for South America of up to ~40%. The NO2/CO ratio indicated that specific sites (such as those in Spanish cities) were affected by biomass burning plumes, which outweighed the NO2 decrease due to the general reduction in mobility (ratio of ~60%). Analysis of the total oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) showed that primary NO2 emissions at urban locations were greater than the O3 production, whereas at background sites, OX was mostly driven by the regional contributions rather than local NO2 and O3 concentrations. The present study clearly highlights the importance of meteorology and episodic contributions (e.g., from dust, domestic, agricultural biomass burning and crop fertilizing) when analysing air quality in and around cities even during large emissions reductions. There is still the need to better understand how the chemical responses of secondary pollutants to emission change under complex meteorological conditions, along with climate change and socio-economic drivers may affect future air quality. The implications for regional and global policies are also significant, as our study clearly indicates that PM2.5 concentrations would not likely meet the World Health Organization guidelines in many parts of the world, despite the drastic reductions in mobility. Consequently, revisions of air quality regulation (e.g., the Gothenburg Protocol) with more ambitious targets that are specific to the different regions of the world may well be required. |
Comité Científico de Cambio Climático: La importancia de la ventilación | | Tolvett, S.; Rondanelli, R.; Brevis, W.; Valdes, M.; Rojas, M. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras | | https://comitecientifico.minciencia.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Tolvett-ventilacion_11.pdf | | | | | | | |
Air pollution and COVID-19 lockdown in a large South American city: Santiago Metropolitan Area, Chile | Urban Climate | Toro A., R.; Catalán, F.; Urdanivia, F.; Rojas, J.; Manzano, C.; Seguel, R.; Gallardo, L.; Osses, M.; Pantoja, N.; Leiva-Guzman, M. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100803 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S221209552100033X | 100803 | Vol: 36 | 22120955 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | The implementation of confinement and physical distancing measures to restrict people's activities and transit in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic allowed us to study how these measures affect the air quality in urban areas with high pollution rates, such as Santiago, Chile. A comparative study between the concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NOx, CO, and O3 during the months of March to May 2020 and the corresponding concentrations during the same period in 2017–2019 is presented. A combination of surface measurements from the air quality monitoring network of the city, remote satellite measurements, and simulations of traffic activity and road transport emissions allowed us to quantify the change in the average concentrations of each pollutant. Average relative changes of traffic emissions (between 61% and 68%) implied statistically significant concentrations reductions of 54%, 13%, and 11% for NOx, CO, and PM2.5, respectively, during the pandemic period compared to historical period. In contrast, the average concentration of O3 increased by 63% during 2020 compared to 2017–2019. The nonlinear response observed in the pollution levels can be attributed to the changes in the vehicular emission patterns during the pandemic and to the role of other sources such as residential emissions or secondary PM. © 2021 Elsevier B.V. |
13,000 years of sociocultural plant use in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile | Vegetation History and Archaeobotany | Ugalde, P.; McRostie, V.; Gayo, E.; García, M.; Latorre, C.; Santoro, C. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1007/s00334-020-00783-1 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00334-020-00783-1 | 213-230 | Vol: 30 Issue: 2 | 0939-6314, 1617-6278 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Throughout Earth’s most extreme environments, such as the Kalahari Desert or the Arctic, hunter–gatherers found ingenious ways to obtain proteins and sugars provided by plants for dietary requirements. In the hyperarid Atacama Desert, wild
plant resources are scarce and unevenly distributed due to limited water availability. This study brings together all available
archaeobotanical evidence gathered in the Atacama Desert from the Late Pleistocene (ca. 13,000 cal bp) until the Inka epoch
(ca. 450 cal bp) to help us comprehend when these populations acquired and managed useful plants from the coastal zone,
Intermediate Depression, High Andes, as well as tropical and subtropical ecosystems. Widespread introduction of farming
crops, water control techniques and cultivation of diverse plants by 3,000 cal bp ended not only a chronic food shortage, but
also led to the establishment of a set of staple foods for the Atacama Desert dwellers, a legacy that remains visible today. By
contrasting these trends with major sociocultural changes, together with palaeodemographic and climatic fuctuations, we
note that humans adapted to, and transformed this hyperarid landscape and oscillating climate, with plants being a key factor
in their success. This long-term process, which we term the “Green Revolution”, coincided with an exponential increase in
the number of social groups inhabiting the Atacama Desert during the Late Holocene. |
An Integrated Framework to Streamline Resilience in the Context of Urban Climate Risk Assessment | Earth's Future | Urquiza, A.; Amigo, C.; Billi, M.; Calvo, R.; Gallardo, L.; Neira, C.; Rojas, M. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.1029/2020EF001508 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001508 | art: e2020EF001508 | Vol: 9 Issue: 9 | 2328-4277, 2328-4277 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Cities are increasingly acknowledged as crucial when facing climate change—and the environmental crisis more in general—, offering challenges and opportunities in terms of both mitigation and adaptation. Climate change-sensitive urban governance requires proactive, integrated, and contextualized approaches, making room for the complex, multilayered, multiscalar, and dynamic processes constituting a city. The notion of “resilience” has been acquiring growing recognition as a flexible and powerful concept to respond to these challenges. Resilience itself, however, is also a polysemic notion, often treated as little more than a catchword or a wishful aim or superimposed with other climate-related terms, such as risk, vulnerability, or adaptation. To promote a stronger integration among different problem-settings and epistemic communities, this paper advances six analytical distinctions aiming to provide structure and articulation to existing definitions of the concept of “resilience.” Likewise, it offers an integrated analytical framework and methodological pipeline to streamline resilience analysis in the context of urban climate risk assessment. The framework is specially defined to link up with the definition of climate risk provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) latest Assessment Reports and is illustrated through examples derived from the recent experience of the Chilean Climate Risk Atlas. |
Long-Term Exposure to Fine and Coarse Particulate Matter and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality Rate in Chile during 2020 | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health | Valdés Salgado, M.; Smith, P.; Opazo, M.; Huneeus, N. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.3390/ijerph18147409 | https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/14/7409 | 7409 | Vol: 18 Issue: 14 | 1660-4601 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Background: Several countries have documented the relationship between long-term exposure to air pollutants and epidemiological indicators of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as incidence and mortality. This study aims to explore the association between air pollutants, such as PM2.5 and PM10, and the incidence and mortality rates of COVID-19 during 2020. Methods: The incidence and mortality rates were estimated using the COVID-19 cases and deaths from the Chilean Ministry of Science, and the population size was obtained from the Chilean Institute of Statistics. A chemistry transport model was used to estimate the annual mean surface concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 in a period before the current pandemic. Negative binomial regressions were used to associate the epidemiological information with pollutant concentrations while considering demographic and social confounders. Results: For each microgram per cubic meter, the incidence rate increased by 1.3% regarding PM2.5 and 0.9% regarding PM10. There was no statistically significant relationship between the COVID-19 mortality rate and PM2.5 or PM10. Conclusions: The adjusted regression models showed that the COVID-19 incidence rate was significantly associated with chronic exposure to PM2.5 and PM10, even after adjusting for other variables. |
Overcoming energy poverty through micro-grids: An integrated framework for resilient, participatory sociotechnical transitions | Energy Research & Social Science | Valencia, F.; Billi, M.; Urquiza, A. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.1016/j.erss.2021.102030 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214629621001237 | 102030 | Vol: 75 | 22146296 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SSCI) | | English | Nowadays, the sustainability of micro-grids has received much attention in the research community since micro-grids are becoming an appealing alternative to provide clean energy access to rural communities, and by this token, contribute to overcome energy poverty. The aim of this paper was to investigate the sustainability of micro-grids through the analysis of their resilience. In this regard, an integrated framework was developed combining socio-technical transitions with socio-ecological resilience concepts. This allows to pay attention at once to two dimensions of micro-grid sustainability: (i) the ability of the micro-grid to effectively transform the relationship between community, energy, and territory to make it more sustainable in economic, social and environmental terms; (ii) the sustainability of the micro-grid itself, namely, its ability to endure, adapt to and recover from changes in contextual factors which may limit its operativity over time. Methodological guidelines are offered for the participatory co-construction and monitoring of the micro-grid and its monitoring, supporting both dimensions. To illustrate our proposal, the micro-grid installed in Huatacondo, north of Chile, was used as test-bed. |
Anthropogenic Perturbations to the Atmospheric Molybdenum Cycle | Global Biogeochemical Cycles | Wong, M.; Rathod, S.; Marino, R.; Li, L.; Howarth, R.; Alastuey, A.; Alaimo, M.; Barraza, F.; Carneiro, M.; Chellam, S.; Chen, Y.; Cohen, D.; Connelly, D.; Dongarra, G.; Gómez, D.; Hand, J.; Harrison, R.; Hopke, P.; Hueglin, C.; Kuang, Y.; Lambert, F.; Liang, J.; Losno, R.; Maenhaut, W.; Milando, C.... | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1029/2020GB006787 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GB006787 | art: e2020GB006787 | Vol: 35 Issue: 2 | 0886-6236, 1944-9224 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Molybdenum (Mo) is a key cofactor in enzymes used for nitrogen (N) fixation and nitrate reduction, and the low availability of Mo can constrain N inputs, affecting ecosystem productivity. Natural atmospheric Mo aerosolization and deposition from sources such as desert dust, sea-salt spray, and volcanoes can affect ecosystem function across long timescales, but anthropogenic activities such as combustion, motor vehicles, and agricultural dust have accelerated the natural Mo cycle. Here we combined a synthesis of global atmospheric concentration observations and modeling to identify and estimate anthropogenic sources of atmospheric Mo. To project the impact of atmospheric Mo on terrestrial ecosystems, we synthesized soil Mo data and estimated the global distribution of soil Mo using two approaches to calculate turnover times. We estimated global emissions of atmospheric Mo in aerosols (<10 μm in diameter) to be 23 Gg Mo yr−1, with 40%–75% from anthropogenic sources. We approximated that for the top meter of soil, Mo turnover times range between 1,000 and 1,000,000 years. In some industrialized regions, anthropogenic inputs have enhanced Mo deposition 100-fold, lowering the soil Mo turnover time considerably. Our synthesis of global observational data, modeling, and a mass balance comparison with riverine Mo exports suggest that anthropogenic activity has greatly accelerated the Mo cycle, with potential to influence N-limited ecosystems. |
Spatial distribution and interannual variability of coastal fog and low clouds cover in the hyperarid Atacama Desert and implications for past and present Tillandsia landbeckii ecosystems | Plant Systematics and Evolution | del Río, C.; Lobos-Roco, F.; Latorre, C.; Koch, M.; García, J.; Osses, P.; Lambert, F.; Alfaro, F.; Siegmund, A. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1007/s00606-021-01782-z | https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00606-021-01782-z | 58 | Vol: 307 Issue: 5 | 0378-2697, 1615-6110 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | The hyperarid Atacama Desert coast receives scarce moisture inputs mainly from the Pacific Ocean in the form of marine advective fog. The collected moisture supports highly specialized ecosystems, where the bromeliad
Tillandsia landbeckii
is the dominant species. The fog and low clouds (FLCs) on which these ecosystems depend are affected in their interannual variability and spatial distribution by global phenomena, such as ENSO. Yet, there is a lack of understanding of how ENSO influences recent FLCs spatial changes and their interconnections and how these variations can affect existing
Tillandsia
stands. In this study, we analyze FLCs occurrence, its trends and the influence of ENSO on the interannual variations of FLCs presence by processing GOES satellite images (1995–2017). Our results show that ENSO exerts a significant influence over FLCs interannual variability in the Atacama at ~ 20°S. Linear regression analyses reveal a relation between ENSO3.4 anomalies and FLCs with opposite seasonal effects depending on the ENSO phase. During summer (winter), the ENSO warm phase is associated with an increase (decrease) of the FLCs occurrence, whereas the opposite occurs during ENSO cool phases. In addition, the ONI Index explains up to ~ 50 and ~ 60% variance of the interannual FLCs presence in the
T. landbeckii
site during summer and winter, respectively. Finally, weak negative (positive) trends of FLCs presence are observed above (below) 1000 m a. s. l. These results have direct implications for understanding the present and past distribution of
Tillandsia
ecosystems under the extreme conditions characterizing our study area. |
INEMA: High resolution inventory of atmospheric emissions from transport, industrial, energy, mining and residential sectors of Chile | | Álamos, N.; Hunneus, N.; Osses, M.; Opazo, M.; Puja, S.; Pantoja, N. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5281/zenodo.4784286 | https://zenodo.org/record/4784286 | | | | Zenodo | | English | Brief description This study presents the first high-resolution national inventory of anthropogenic emission for Chile (INEMA from spanish Inventario Nacional de EMisiones Antropogénicas). Emissions for vehicular, industrial, energy, mining and residential sectors are estimated for the period 2015-2017 and spatially distributed onto a high resolution grid (1 x 1 km approximately). The pollutants included are CO2, NOx, SO2, CO, VOCs, NH3, and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) for all sectors. CH4 and Black Carbon are included for transport and residential sources, while Arsenic, Benzene, Mercury, Lead, Toluene, and Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and Furan (PCDD / F) are estimated for energy, mining and industrial sources. This work compiles new activity data and emissions factors and distributes them geographically based on census and Chile´s road network information. This inventory should contribute to the design of policies that seek to mitigate climate change and improve air quality by providing policy makers, stakeholders and scientists with qualified scientific spatial explicit emission information. Metadata Each .tar file contain netcdf (.nc) files for each pollutant of the sector and year of the .tar file. Netcdf contains annual total emissions for the pollutant and year indicated per grid cell The emission grid consists of Chilean territory in WGS84 projection (lon-lat) with a spatial resolution of 0.01 * 0.01 degrees (lon x lat). The extension boundaries of the grid are: [(-76-56.3), (-66,-17)] The unit in the .nc files is Kilotonne/Km2/Year The dataset is described in Álamos, N., Hunneus, N., Opazo, M., Osses, M., Puja, S., Pantoja, N., Calvo, R., Denier Van Der Gon, H.A.C., Schueftan, A., Reyes, R., High resolution inventory of atmospheric emissions from transport, industrial, energy, mining and residential sectors of Chile, ESSD, in preparation, 2021 |
Vulnerabilidad hídrica territorial: Marco analítico y aplicaciones | Documento de trabajo NEST`-r3 N°3 | Álamos, N.; Monsalve, T.; Billi, M.; Lefort, I.; Allendes, A.; Navea, J.; Calvo, R.; Urquiza, A. | 2021 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.17605/OSF.IO/AGJ6P | https://bit.ly/3qhuD6n | | | | | | | La crisis hídrica evidenciada en los últimos años a nivel global ha puesto de relieve la
necesidad de establecer metas unificadas para el logro del acceso universal al agua potable
y saneamiento (Objetivo de Desarrollo Sostenible ODS 6), en el contexto de cambio
climático que posiciona a la sequía como una de las amenazas más graves, presente en
distintas regiones del mundo. Según las proyecciones del Grupo Intergubernamental de
Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC, 2014b), se espera una reducción de recursos
renovables de aguas superficiales y subterráneas, un aumento de la frecuencia e intensidad
de sequías a finales del siglo XXI (con arreglo al escenario RCP8,5), e incluso, disminuciones
en la calidad del agua potable, debido a una mayor concentración de contaminantes durante
la sequía (IPCC, 2014b). Además, la importancia de la seguridad hídrica se ve incrementada
en la crisis sanitaria provocada por la propagación del COVID-19 (Staddon et al., 2020), ya
que no sólo tensiona el funcionamiento de los servicios fundamentales para la salud y el
desarrollo humano, sino que también tensiona los servicios hídricos donde el acceso ya
está limitado para muchas personas en el mundo, restringiendo la posibilidad de un
correcto lavado de manos (medida de higiene básica para combatir la propagación del virus)
según la Organización Mundial de la Salud (WHO, 2020a). |
ARCLIM Anexo: Piloto Riesgo integrado de Asentamientos Huanos. Conurbación Valparaíso - Viña del Mar | | Amigo, C.; Alamos, N.; Arrieta, D.; Billi, M.; Contreras, M.; Larragubel, C.; Muñoz, A.; Smith, P.; Urquiza, A.; Vargas, M.; Videla, J.; Winckler, P. | 2020 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | | | | | | | | | |
Agencias veladas y apertura ontológica: desafíos posthumanistas de la teoría social contemporánea. / Veiled agencies and ontological opening: post-humanist challenges of contemporary social theory. | Utopía y Praxis Latinoamericana | Blanco, G.; Iriarte, P.; Bravo, J. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5281/zenodo.4110851 | https://produccioncientificaluz.org/index.php/utopia/article/view/34230 | 28-41 | Vol: 25 Issue: 9 | 2477-9555 | Not indexed | | Spanish | Considerando el debate abierto por el posthumanismo, proponemos la noción de agencias veladas para dar cuenta de la operación a partir de la cual la teoría social de corte humanista ha silenciado y ocultado la capacidad de agencia tanto de entidades no-humanas como también de grupos humanos específicos. ¿Cómo desmarcarse de este proceso de ocultamiento para devolver la acción y el sentido a los materiales, los cuerpos y sus relaciones? El artículo aboga por una praxis investigativa que, profundizando los aportes del posthumanismo, genere una apertura ontológica con consecuencias éticas y científicas relevantes. |
RedPE (2020). Vulnerabilidad Energética Territorial: Desigualdad más allá del hogar | | Calvo, R.; Amigo, C.; Billi, M.; Fleischmann, M.; Urquiza, A. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | | http://redesvid.uchile.cl/pobreza-energetica/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/VF_Informe-VET.pdf | | | | | | | La energía es uno de los recursos fundamentales para el desarrollo económico y humano de
las personas y de las sociedades contemporáneas. Por un lado, el acceso a una energía de
calidad tiene consecuencias en el acceso a educación, empleabilidad, alimentación e incluso
en la salud de las personas (Liddell & Morris, 2010; Nadimi & Tokimatsu, 2018; Robić & Ančić,
2018; Thomson, Snell & Bouzarovski, 2017). Por otro lado, un sistema energético estable y
de calidad habilita el desarrollo económico al permitir la implementación de tecnologías
modernas de producción, ampliar el uso de tecnologías de información y comunicación,
entre otros (Bhatia & Angelou, 2015; Naciones Unidas, 2018; Practical Action, 2017).
En la actualidad, los sistemas energéticos se encuentran tensionados por dos fenómenos
paralelos y relacionados entre sí, sobre todo en los países en vías al desarrollo: el
cambio climático y la necesidad de una transición energética. En primer lugar, el cambio
climático ha puesto en evidencia los efectos negativos de una matriz energética basada
mayoritariamente en combustibles fósiles, debido a los efectos de sus altas emisiones de
Gases de Efecto Invernadero (GEI). A nivel global, la generación de energía contribuye con
un 30% de las emisiones totales de GEI, mientras que el sector energético contribuye un
73% de las emisiones totales (incluyendo transporte, electricidad y calefacción, edificios,
manufacturas y construcción, emisiones fugitivas y combustión de otros combustibles)1
. Por
lo tanto, la matriz de generación de energía debiese transitar hacia la descarbonización en
las siguientes décadas si se desea mantener el calentamiento global por bajo los 1.5ºC y
adaptarse a los límites planetarios (Falk et al., 2019; IPCC, 2019a; Rockström et al., 2009).
Esta radical transformación debiese ser capaz, al mismo tiempo, de asegurar un suministro
energético adecuado al desarrollo económico y humano, adaptándose a las nuevas condiciones climáticas y tecnológicas, necesarias para la transición a una matriz energética
renovable. |
ARCLIM Anexo: Piloto Riesgo integrado. Cuenca del río Cachapoal- Región de O’Higgins en ARClim – Atlas de Riesgo Climático | | Calvo, R.; Navea, J.; Fleishmann, M.; Barrera, V.; Peña, D.; Billi, M.; Urquiza, A. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | | | | | | | | | |
Mathematical Modeling for 2D Light--Sheet Fluorescence Microscopy image reconstruction | Inverse Problems | Cueva, E.; Courdurier, M.; Osses, A.; Castañeda, V.; Palacios, B.; Härtel, S. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1088/1361-6420/ab80d8 | https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1361-6420/ab80d8 | 075005 | Vol: 36 Issue: 7 | 0266-5611, 1361-6420 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | We study an inverse problem for light sheet fluorescence microscopy (LSFM), where the density of fluorescent molecules needs to be reconstructed. Our first step is to present a mathematical model to describe the measurements obtained by an optic camera during an LSFM experiment. Two meaningful stages are considered: excitation and fluorescence. We propose a paraxial model to describe the excitation process which is directly related with the Fermi pencil-beam equation. For the fluorescence stage, we use the transport equation to describe the transport of photons towards the detection camera. For the mathematical inverse problem that we obtain after the modeling, we present a uniqueness result, recasting the problem as the recovery of the initial condition for the heat equation in $\mathbb{R}{\times}\left(0,\infty \right)$ from measurements in a space–time curve. Additionally, we present numerical experiments to recover the density of the fluorescent molecules by discretizing the proposed model and facing this problem as the solution of a large and sparse linear system. Some iterative and regularized methods are used to achieve this objective. The results show that solving the inverse problem achieves better reconstructions than the direct acquisition method that is currently used. |
Holocene dust dynamics: Introduction to the special issue | The Holocene | De Vleeschouwer, F.; Stuut, J.; Lambert, F. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1177/0959683619892670 | http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0959683619892670 | 489-491 | Vol: 30 Issue: 4 | 0959-6836, 1477-0911 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | This article is a brief introduction to the Special Issue on Holocene Dust Dynamics, which brings together recent research on a key aspect of the Earth’s changing climate through its effects on radiative balance, cloud cover and biogeochemical cycles. The aim of the Special Issue is to contribute to a better understanding of the role of dust aerosols by analysing the evolution and climatic impact of atmospheric dust over long and short timescales within the Holocene. Here, we introduce the rationale behind the Special Issue and the eight research papers, which include long-term records of dust deposition from different types of natural archive (e.g. peatlands, ice, loess and lake sediments) as well as present-day multi-annual dust trap records and process studies from various climatic regimes that have global implications. |
Trends and emissions of six perfluorocarbons in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Droste, E.; Adcock, K.; Ashfold, M.; Chou, C.; Fleming, Z.; Fraser, P.; Gooch, L.; Hind, A.; Langenfelds, R.; Leedham Elvidge, E.; Mohd Hanif, N.; O'Doherty, S.; Oram, D.; Ou-Yang, C.; Panagi, M.; Reeves, C.; Sturges, W.; Laube, J. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/acp-20-4787-2020 | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/20/4787/2020/ | 4787-4807 | Vol: 20 Issue: 8 | 1680-7324 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are potent greenhouse gases with global warming potentials up to several thousand times greater than CO2 on a 100-year time horizon. The lack of any significant sinks for PFCs means that they have long atmospheric lifetimes of the order of thousands of years. Anthropogenic production is thought to be the only source for most PFCs. Here we report an update on the global atmospheric abundances of the following PFCs, most of which have for the first time been analytically separated according to their isomers: c-octafluorobutane (c-C4F8), n-decafluorobutane (n-C4F10), n-dodecafluoropentane (n-C5F12), n-tetradecafluorohexane (n-C6F14), and n-hexadecafluoroheptane (n-C7F16). Additionally, we report the first data set on the atmospheric mixing ratios of perfluoro-2-methylpentane (i-C6F14). The existence and significance of PFC isomers have not been reported before, due to the analytical challenges of separating them. The time series spans a period from 1978 to the present. Several data sets are used to investigate temporal and spatial trends of these PFCs: time series of air samples collected at Cape Grim, Australia, from 1978 to the start of 2018; a time series of air samples collected between July 2015 and April 2017 at Tacolneston, UK; and intensive campaign-based sampling collections from Taiwan. Although the remote “background” Southern Hemispheric Cape Grim time series indicates that recent growth rates of most of these PFCs are lower than in the 1990s, we continue to see significantly increasing mixing ratios that are between 6 % and 27 % higher by the end of 2017 compared to abundances measured in 2010. Air samples from Tacolneston show a positive offset in PFC mixing ratios compared to the Southern Hemisphere baseline. The highest mixing ratios and variability are seen in air samples from Taiwan, which is therefore likely situated much closer to PFC sources, confirming predominantly Northern Hemispheric emissions for most PFCs. Even though these PFCs occur in the atmosphere at levels of parts per trillion molar or less, their total cumulative global emissions translate into 833 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent by the end of 2017, 23 % of which has been emitted since 2010. Almost two-thirds of the CO2 equivalent emissions within the last decade are attributable to c-C4F8, which currently also has the highest emission rates that continue to grow. Sources of all PFCs covered in this work remain poorly constrained and reported emissions in global databases do not account for the abundances found in the atmosphere. |
Mitigación de carbono negro en la actualización de la Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada de Chile: Informe extendido y anexos. | | Gallardo, L.; Basoa, K.; Tolvett, S.; Osses, M.; Huneeus, N.; Bustos, S.; Barraza, J.; Ogaz, G. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | | https://www.cr2.cl/carbononegro/ | 116 | | | | | | En el contexto del Acuerdo de París, Chile está revisando su
Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada (NDC, por sus siglas en
inglés). Bajo ese marco, el Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la
Resiliencia (CR2, https://www.cr2.cl/), de la Facultad de Ciencias
Físicas y Matemáticas de la Universidad de Chile, está apoyando a la
Oficina de Cambio Climático del Ministerio del Medio Ambiente
(MMA) en el diseño, evaluación y justificación –mediante la
implementación de un enfoque metodológico— de una meta de
reducción cuantificada de carbono negro (BC, por sus siglas en
inglés), integrable y consistente con la meta de reducción de gases de
efecto invernadero (GEI). Para ejecutar este apoyo se ha suscrito un
acuerdo entre las partes a través del Programa de las Naciones Unidas
para el Medio Ambiente (PNUMA). El mismo está en el marco de la
implementación de iniciativas de acción y planificación nacional
(Supporting National Action and Planning on Short-Lived Climate
Pollutants, SNAP) que promueve la Coalición de Aire Limpio y
Clima (CCAC, https://www.ccacoalition.org/).
Aquí se presenta un informe extendido y anexos que
complementan el resumen para tomadores de decisiones. |
Mitigación de carbono negro en la actualización de la Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada de Chile: Resumen para tomadores de decisión | | Gallardo, L.; Basoa, K.; Tolvett, S.; Osses, M.; Huneeus, N.; Bustos, S.; Barraza, J.; Ogaz, G. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | | https://www.cr2.cl/carbononegro/ | 32 | | | | | | En el contexto del Acuerdo de París, Chile está revisando su Contribución Nacionalmente
Determinada (NDC, por sus siglas en inglés). Bajo ese marco, el Centro de Ciencia del Clima
y la Resiliencia (CR2, www.cr2.cl/), de la Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas de la
Universidad de Chile, está apoyando a la Oficina de Cambio Climático del Ministerio del
Medio Ambiente (MMA) en el diseño, evaluación y justificación –mediante la implementación
de un enfoque metodológico— de una meta de reducción cuantificada de carbono negro
(BC, por sus siglas en inglés), integrable y consistente con la meta de reducción de gases
de efecto invernadero (GEI). Para ejecutar este apoyo, se ha suscrito un acuerdo entre las
partes a través del Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente (PNUMA).
El mismo está en el marco de la implementación de iniciativas de acción y planificación
nacional (Supporting National Action and Planning on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants, SNAP)
que promueve la Coalición de Aire Limpio y Clima (CCAC, www.ccacoalition.org/).
Aquí se presenta un resumen para tomadores de decisión, resaltando los aspectos
metodológicos y los resultados más importantes del estudio. Este resumen se complementa
con un informe extendido y anexos que detallan la información y relevan la interacción
entre el grupo ejecutor y el mandante. |
Comité Científico de Cambio Climático: Los peligros de la mala calidad de aire | | Gallardo, L.; Boso, A.; Barton, J.; Huneeus, N.; Jiménez, J.; Jorquera, H.; Seguel, R.; Schueftan, A.; Urquiza, A. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | | https://comitecientifico.minciencia.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Valdes-aire_10.pdf | | | | | | | |
Informe a las naciones: Incendios en Chile: causas, impactos y resiliencia. | | González, M.; Sapiains A., R.; Gómez-González, S.; Garreaud, R.; Miranda, A.; Galleguillos, M.; Jacques-Coper, M.; Pauchard, A.; Hoyos-Santillan, J.; Cordero, L.; Vasquez-Lavin, F.; Lara, A.; Aldunce, P.; Delgado, V.; Arriagada, R.; Ugarte, A.; Sepulveda-Jauregui, A.; Farías, L.; Garcia, R.; Rondane... | 2020 | Agua y Extremos; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Informe-CR2-IncendiosforestalesenChile.pdf | 84 | | | | | Spanish | Los resultados presentados en este informe son parte del trabajo interdisciplinario que realiza el Centro de Ciencia
del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2.
El (CR)2 es un centro de excelencia financiado por el programa FONDAP de CONICYT (Proyecto 15110009) en el cual
participan cerca de 60 científicos asociados a la Universidad de Chile, la Universidad de Concepción y la Universidad
Austral de Chile.
La versión electrónica de este documento está disponible en el sitio web www.cr2.cl/incendios |
MMP-8, TRAP-5, and OPG Levels in GCF Diagnostic Potential to Discriminate between Healthy Patients’, Mild and Severe Periodontitis Sites | Biomolecules | Hernández, M.; Baeza, M.; Contreras, J.; Sorsa, T.; Tervahartiala, T.; Valdés, M.; Chaparro, A.; Hernández-Ríos, P. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.3390/biom10111500 | https://www.mdpi.com/2218-273X/10/11/1500 | 1500 | Vol: 10 Issue: 11 | 2218-273X | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Biomarkers represent promising aids in periodontitis, host-mediate diseases of the tooth-supporting tissues. We assessed the diagnostic potential of matrix metalloproteinase-8 (MMP-8), tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase-5 (TRAP-5), and osteoprotegerin (OPG) to discriminate between healthy patients’, mild and severe periodontitis sites. Thirty-one otherwise healthy volunteers with and without periodontal disease were enrolled at the Faculty of Dentistry, University of Chile. Periodontal parameters were examined and gingival crevicular fluid was sampled from mild periodontitis sites (M; n = 42), severe periodontitis sites (S; n = 59), and healthy volunteer sites (H; n = 30). TRAP-5 and OPG were determined by commercial multiplex assay and MMP-8 by the immunofluorometric (IFMA) method. STATA software was used. All biomarkers showed a good discrimination performance. MMP-8 had the overall best performance in regression models and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, with high discrimination of healthy from periodontitis sites (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.901). OPG showed a very high diagnostic precision (AUC ≥ 0.95) to identify severe periodontitis sites (S versus H + M), while TRAP-5 identified both healthy and severe sites. As conclusions, MMP-8, TRAP-5, and OPG present a high precision potential in the identification of periodontal disease destruction, with MMP-8 as the most accurate diagnostic biomarker. |
Evaluation of anthropogenic air pollutant emission inventories for South America at national and city scale | Atmospheric Environment | Huneeus, N.; Gon, H.; Castesana, P.; Menares, C.; Granier, C.; Granier, L.; Alonso, M.; de Fatima Andrade, M.; Dawidowski, L.; Gallardo, L.; Gomez, D.; Klimont, Z.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Osses, M.; Puliafito, S.; Rojas, N.; Ccoyllo, O.; Tolvett, S.; Ynoue, R. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117606 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S135223102030340X | 117606 | Vol: 235 | 13522310 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | The changing composition of the atmosphere, driven by anthropogenic emissions, is the cause of anthropogenic climate change as well as deteriorating air quality. Emission inventories are essential to understand the contribution of various human activities, model and predict the changing atmospheric composition, and design cost-effective mitigation measures. At present, national emission inventories in South America (SA) focus on Greenhouse Gases (GHG) as part of their obligation to the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCC) within the framework of their national communications. Emission inventories other than GHG in SA focus mainly on growing urban areas and megacities. Therefore, studies examining air quality at national, regional or continental scales in SA depend on (down-scaled) global emission inventories. This paper examines the emission estimates of air pollutants from various global inventories for five SA countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru. A more detailed analysis is conducted for the EDGAR and ECLIPSE emission inventories, in particular comparing local city-scale inventories of a major city in each country. Although total emissions between down-scaled global inventories and local city inventories are often comparable, large discrepancies exist between the sectoral contributions. This is critical, as the mitigation of poor air quality will depend on addressing the right sources. Potential sources of discrepancies between global and local inventories include the spatial distribution proxies, difference in emission factors used and/or the use of generic statistical country data when estimating emissions. This highlights the importance of using local information when generating national emission inventories, especially for air quality modeling and development of effective mitigation measures. This study represents the first step towards an increased understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of emissions information in SA. |
Informe a las naciones: El aire que respiramos: pasado, presente y futuro – Contaminación atmosférica por MP2,5 en el centro y sur de Chile | | Huneeus, N.; Urquiza, A.; Gayo, E.; Osses, M.; Arriagada, R.; Valdés, M.; Álamos, N.; Amigo, C.; Arrieta, D.; Basoa, K.; Billi, M.; Blanco, G.; Boisier, J.; Calvo, R.; Casielles, I.; Castro, M.; Chahúan, J.; Christie, D.; Cordero, L.; Correa, V.; Cortés, J.; Fleming, Z.; Gajardo, N.; Gallardo, L.; G... | 2020 | Agua y Extremos; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Informe_Contaminacion_Espanol_2020.pdf | 102 | | | cr2.cl | | Spanish | Los resultados presentados en este informe son parte del trabajo interdisciplinario que realiza el Centro de Ciencia
del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2.
El (CR)2 es un centro de excelencia financiado por el programa FONDAP de CONICYT (Proyecto 15110009) en el cual
participan cerca de 60 científicos asociados a la Universidad de Chile, la Universidad de Concepción y la Universidad
Austral de Chile.
La versión electrónica de este documento está disponible en el sitio web www.cr2.cl/incendios |
Soccer games and record-breaking PM2.5 pollution events in Santiago, Chile | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Lapere, R.; Menut, L.; Mailler, S.; Huneeus, N. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/acp-20-4681-2020 | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/20/4681/2020/ | 4681-4694 | Vol: 20 Issue: 8 | 1680-7324 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | In wintertime, high concentrations of atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are commonly observed in the metropolitan area of Santiago, Chile. Hourly peaks can be very strong, up to 10 times above average levels, but have barely been studied so far. Based on atmospheric composition measurements and chemistry-transport modeling (WRF-CHIMERE), the chemical signature of sporadic skyrocketing wintertime PM2.5 peaks is analyzed. This signature and the timing of such extreme events trace their origin back to massive barbecue cooking by Santiago's inhabitants during international soccer games. The peaks end up evacuated outside Santiago after a few hours but trigger emergency plans for the next day. Decontamination plans in Santiago focus on decreasing emissions from traffic, industry, and residential heating. Thanks to the air quality network of Santiago, this study shows that cultural habits such as barbecue cooking also need to be taken into account. For short-term forecast and emergency management, cultural events such as soccer games seem a good proxy to prognose possible PM2.5 peak events. Not only can this result have an informative value for the Chilean authorities but also a similar methodology could be reproduced for other cases throughout the world in order to estimate the burden on air quality of cultural habits. |
Ecology of the collapse of Rapa Nui society | Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences | Lima, M.; Gayo, E.; Latorre, C.; Santoro, C.; Estay, S.; Cañellas-Boltà, N.; Margalef, O.; Giralt, S.; Sáez, A.; Pla-Rabes, S.; Chr. Stenseth, N. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1098/rspb.2020.0662 | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2020.0662 | 20200662 | Vol: 287 Issue: 1929 | 0962-8452, 1471-2954 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | Collapses of food producer societies are recurrent events in prehistory and have triggered a growing concern for identifying the underlying causes of convergences/divergences across cultures around the world. One of the most studied and used as a paradigmatic case is the population collapse of the Rapa Nui society. Here, we test different hypotheses about it by developing explicit population dynamic models that integrate feedbacks between climatic, demographic and ecological factors that underpinned the socio-cultural trajectory of these people. We evaluate our model outputs against a reconstruction of past population size based on archaeological radiocarbon dates from the island. The resulting estimated demographic declines of the Rapa Nui people are linked to the long-term effects of climate change on the island's carrying capacity and, in turn, on the ‘per-capita food supply’. |
Increasing trends (2001–2018) in photochemical activity and secondary aerosols in Santiago, Chile | Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology | Menares, C.; Gallardo, L.; Kanakidou, M.; Seguel, R.; Huneeus, N. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1080/16000889.2020.1821512 | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16000889.2020.1821512 | 1-18 | Vol: 72 Issue: 1 | 1600-0889 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Despite the decline in partially (PM10) and fully (PM2.5) inhalable particles observed in recent decades, Santiago in Chile shows high levels of particle and ozone pollution. Attainment plans have emphasized measures aimed at curbing primary and, to some extent, secondary particles, but little attention has been paid to photochemical pollution. Nevertheless, ozone hourly mixing ratios in Eastern Santiago regularly exceed 110 ppbv in summer, and in winter maximum mixing ratios often reach 90 ppbv. Moreover, the sum of ozone and nitrogen dioxide shows an increasing trend of more than 3.5 ppbv per decade at 5 out of 8 stations. This trend is driven by increasing NO2, possibly associated with increasing motorization but also with changes in photochemistry. To estimate the fraction of secondary particles in PM2.5 and due to the lack of long-term speciation data for particles, we use carbon monoxide as a proxy of primary particles and ozone daily maxima as a proxy for secondary particle formation. We find a growing fraction of secondary particles due to an increase in the oxidizing capacity of Santiago’s atmosphere. This stresses the need for new curbing measures to tackle photochemical pollution. This is particularly needed in the context of a changing climate. |
Enhanced Chlorinated very Short-Lived Substances in South East Asia: Potential Source Regions and Source Types | IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science | Mohd Hanif, N.; Reeves, C.; Oram, D.; Ashfold, M.; Panagi, M.; Fleming, Z.; Gooch, L.; Laube, J.; Abu Samah, A.; Amin Abdullah, A.; Sturges, W. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1088/1755-1315/616/1/012011 | https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/616/1/012011 | 012011 | Vol: 616 | 1755-1315 | Not indexed | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Enhancements of the mixing ratios of short-lived halogenated gases were observed in air samples collected at Bachok Marine Research Station (BMRS), Peninsular Malaysia during Northern Hemisphere winters in 2013/2014 and 2015/2016. This study investigates the potential source regions and source types that influenced the variability in chlorinated very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLS) [dichloromethane, 1,2-dichloroethane, trichloromethane, tetrachloroethene] and methyl halides [methyl chloride and methyl bromide]. The UK Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric Modelling Environment (NAME) dispersion model, was used for tracking the origin of air masses arriving at BMRS. For the purpose of identifying possible sources of these compounds, carbon monoxide (CO) emission data taken from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 were used along with NAME footprints to calculate modelled CO mixing ratios. A correlation analysis between the mixing ratios of measured compounds and the modelled CO from various emission sectors was perform to assess the extent to which emission sectors might be related to the mixing ratios of halogenated gases. The results show that the events of higher mixing ratios were associated with air masses, especially from East China. During the 2013/2014 campaign, the modelled CO from industrial, solvents and agriculture (waste burning on fields) were significantly correlated with the mixing ratios of Cl-VSLS (R > 0.7) and methyl halides (R > 0.40). During the 2015/2016 campaign, the strength of these correlations reduced for Cl-VSLS (R > 0.5) and with no significant correlations for methyl halides. Instead, mixing ratios of methyl halides were correlated (R=0.4) with modelled CO from forest burning. This work provides evidence that East and South East Asia act as important sources of halogenated gases. This is of significant given the proximity of these regions to prevalent deep convection which can rapidly transport these halogencontaining gases into the stratosphere and impact the ozone layer. |
Sedimentation rate of settleable particulate matter in Santiago city, Chile | Environmental Quality Management | Morales‐Casa, V.; Barraza, F.; Collante, E.; Ginocchio, R.; Jorquera, H.; Lambert, F.; Ospina, E.; Sáez‐Navarrete, C.; Varas, J. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1002/tqem.21672 | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/tqem.21672 | 17-25 | Vol: 29 Issue: 3 | 1088-1913, 1520-6483 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | | English | Settleable particulate matter (SPM) is an atmospheric pollutant harmful to human health and the environment in high concentrations. Despite this fact, no up‐to‐date information on SPM levels exists for the capital of Chile, Santiago (7 million inhabitants). To address this knowledge gap, SPM sedimentation rates, including soluble and insoluble components, were measured at three different urban sites from July to November of 2016. We compare the measurements with ambient and meteorological information, as well as urban typology settings.
Our results indicate SPM deposition rates between 2.5 and 3.9 g/(m2·30 days). Only one site exceeded the national limit of 4.5 g/(m2·30 days), but we found an increasing trend in all three sites. SPM and its insoluble sedimentation rates increased during warm and dry months and presented significant correlations with meteorological parameters. The highest sedimentation rates were measured at the location with the least permeable surfaces and the lowest green spaces, while the lowest sedimentation rates were found in the sites with abundant green spaces and permeable soil. No significant differences were detected in the soluble components.
Our results suggest that SPM levels in Santiago are close to the national limit and may increase with climate change and urban expansion. |
ARCLIM Anexo: Exploración de un Índice de Resiliencia Genérica en ARClim – Atlas de Riesgo Climático | | Neira, C.; Rauld, J.; Alamos, N.; Billi, M.; Urquiza, A. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | | | | | | | | | |
Investigating the regional contributions to air pollution in Beijing: a dispersion modelling study using CO as a tracer | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Panagi, M.; Fleming, Z.; Monks, P.; Ashfold, M.; Wild, O.; Hollaway, M.; Zhang, Q.; Squires, F.; Vande Hey, J. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/acp-20-2825-2020 | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/20/2825/2020/ | 2825-2838 | Vol: 20 Issue: 5 | 1680-7324 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | The rapid urbanization and industrialization of northern China in recent decades has resulted in poor air quality in major cities like
Beijing. Transport of air pollution plays a key role in determining the relative influence of local emissions and regional contributions to observed
air pollution. In this paper, dispersion modelling (Numerical Atmospheric Modelling Environment, NAME model) is used with emission inventories and
in situ ground measurement data to track the pathways of air masses arriving in Beijing. The percentage of time the air masses spent over specific
regions during their travel to Beijing is used to assess the effects of regional meteorology on carbon monoxide (CO), a good tracer of
anthropogenic emissions. The NAME model is used with the MEIC (Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China) emission inventories to determine the
amount of pollution that is transported to Beijing from the immediate surrounding areas and regions further away. This approach captures the
magnitude and variability of CO over Beijing and reveals that CO is strongly driven by transport processes. This study provides a more
detailed understanding of relative contributions to air pollution in Beijing under different regional airflow conditions. Approximately 45 %
over a 4-year average (2013–2016) of the total CO pollution that affects Beijing is transported from other regions, and about half of this
contribution comes from beyond the Hebei and Tianjin regions that immediately surround Beijing. The industrial sector is the dominant emission
source from the surrounding regions and contributes over 20 % of the total CO in Beijing. Finally, using PM2.5 to determine
high-pollution days, three pollution classification types of pollution were identified and used to analyse the APHH winter campaign and the 4-year
period. The results can inform targeted control measures to be implemented by Beijing and the surrounding provinces to tackle air quality problems
that affect Beijing and China. |
Association between coal and firewood combustion and hospital admissions and mortality in Chile 2015 – An ecological approach | Annals of Agricultural and Environmental Medicine | Paredes, M.; Muñoz, M.; Valdés Salgado, M.; Maldonado, A. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.26444/aaem/125010 | http://www.journalssystem.com/aaem/Association-between-coal-and-firewood-combustion-and-hospital-admission-and-mortality,125010,0,2.html | 418–426 | Vol: 27 Issue: 3 | 1232-1966, 1898-2263 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Introduction and objective: Burning coal and firewood generates toxic emissions that are associated with respiratory illness, cardiovascular disease, and even death. The aim of the study is to evaluate the association between county-level prevalence of household coal and firewood use and health outcomes, including total, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality, as well as total and respiratory hospitalization rates. Material and methods: The ecological study included data on the use of household coal and firewood in 139 counties obtained from the 2015 Chilean National Socio-economic Characterization Survey. Total, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality, as well as total and respiratory hospitalization rates, were obtained from the Department of Health Statistics. Poisson models with robust error variance, Pearson linear correlation coefficients, and scatterplots were used to explore associations between household coal and firewood use and morbidity-mortality, stratifying by geographic zone. Results: Total, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality and total and respiratory hospitalization rates were 5.7 per 1,000, 552 per 100,000, 157 per 100,000, 92.5 per 1000, and 8.8 per 1000 inhabitants, respectively. The median prevalence of coal use for residential cooking, heating, or water heating was 3.64%, while the median prevalence of firewood combustion was 12%. In southern counties, age- and gender-adjusted respiratory mortality increased 2.02 (95% CI: 1.17–3.50), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.11–1.89), and 1.76-fold (95% CI: 1.19–2.60) for each percentage increase in household coal and firewood use for heating, cooking and heating water, respectively. Conclusions: The prevalence of household coal and firewood used for heating and cooking was positively correlated with respiratory mortality and hospitalization in southern zone counties. |
PM2.5 forecasting in Coyhaique, the most polluted city in the Americas | Urban Climate | Perez, P.; Menares, C.; Ramírez, C. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100608 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100608 | art: 100608 | Vol: 32 | 2212-0955 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Coyhaique is a southern Chilean city with a population of approximately 64,000 habitants. In spite of its small size, Coyhaique has been identified as the city with highest annual PM2.5 concentrations of the Americas (including south America, central America and north America). Episodes of high pollution are concentrated on the fall- winter season when meteorological conditions do not favor atmospheric particle dispersion and extended use of wood stoves is responsible for more than 99% of the emissions. In Chile, the 24 h average of PM2.5 concentration is classified in four ranges: fair, bad, very bad and critical. We have developed a neural network model and a linear model aimed to forecast the maximum of the 24 h moving average one day in advance. Input variables for the models are hourly values of PM2.5 at 18 h and 19 h of the present day, measured and forecasted temperature, wind speed and precipitation and measured values of NO2, CO and O3 concentrations. The neural network model is slightly more accurate than the linear model. We are able to anticipate the observed range in 75% of the cases, and critical days in 84% of the cases. © 2020 Elsevier B.V. |
Recent wildfires in Central Chile: Detecting links between burned areas and population exposure in the wildland urban interface | Science of The Total Environment | Sarricolea, P.; Serrano-Notivoli, R.; Fuentealba, M.; Hernández-Mora, M.; de la Barrera, F.; Smith, P.; Meseguer-Ruiz, Ó. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135894 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969719358899 | 135894 | Vol: 706 | 00489697 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Wildfires are gaining importance in the Mediterranean regions owing to climate change and landscape changes due to the increasing closeness between urban areas and forests prone to wildfires. We analysed the dry season wildfire occurrences in the Mediterranean region of Central Chile (32°S–39°30′ S) between 2000 and 2017, using satellite images to detect burned areas, their landscape metrics and the land use and covers (vegetal) pre-wildfire, in order to determine the population living in areas that may be affected by wildfires. The existing regulations in western Mediterranean countries (Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy) were used to identify and define the wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas, quantifying the people inhabiting them and estimating the population affected by burned areas from 2001 to 2017. We used the Google Earth Engine to process MODIS products and extract both burned areas and land covers. We detected that 25% of the urban population inhabits WUI areas (i.e. Biobío, Araucanía and Valparaíso regions) where the urban population exposed to burned areas exceeds 40%. Most of the land use and land covers affected by wildfires are anthropogenic land covers, classified as savannas, croplands, evergreen broadleaf forests and woody savannas, representing >70% of the burned areas. Urban areas show only 0.6% of the burned surface from 2001 to 2017. We estimate that 55,680 people are potentially affected by wildfires, and 50% of them are in just one administrative region. These results show the imperative need for public policies as a regulating force for establishing WUI areas with the purpose of identifying wildfire risk in urban areas, such as establishing prevention methods as firewalls and prescribed fires. |
Two decades of ozone standard exceedances in Santiago de Chile | Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health | Seguel, R.; Gallardo, L.; Fleming, Z.; Landeros, S. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1007/s11869-020-00822-w | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11869-020-00822-w | 593-605 | Vol: 13 Issue: 5 | 1873-9318, 1873-9326 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | A drastic decline of 2.4 ppbv decade−1 in the ozone mixing ratio has been measured in Santiago de Chile during the 2000s. Subsequently, in the 2010s, ozone trends stabilized in downtown and showed upward trends in eastern Santiago. The number of days with an 8-h average ozone mixing ratio above 61 ppbv, deemed harmful to health according to Chilean legislation, has declined significantly both in western and central Santiago. However, in eastern Santiago, one finds a 2010–2018 decade average of 43 days per year above recommended levels. Also, at a Receptor Site located ~ 70 km downwind from Santiago, this number rose to up to 3 months per year. A common denominator for the last two decades has been a steady increase in both gasoline and diesel-powered private cars. In the 2010s, the ozone weekend effect was frequently noted, providing evidence that the ozone formation regime in Santiago is VOC-limited. Nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide (a proxy of anthropogenic VOCs) have increased steadily since 2014 in a relatively constant CO-to-NOx ratio. Therefore, we propose that primary emissions of NOX and VOCs from motor vehicle exhaust have remained as the main driver of the photochemical air pollution in Santiago as well as explaining the weekly variation. Santiago, like other megacities in the world, faces several challenges associated with increasing urbanization as well as the effects of climate change. An increasing population, growth in private car use, and urban sprawl have contributed to maintain high levels of ozone. New threats such as increasing temperatures observed in the central valleys of Chile, along with more frequent occurrences of heat waves, whose number has doubled in the last decade, will require a different approach to manage ozone pollution during the next decade. Santiago will not meet its own goals in the upcoming years without implementing robust, scientifically sound, and cost-effective strategies designed specifically to tackle photochemical pollution. |
Differences in the composition of organic aerosols between winter and summer in Beijing: a study by direct-infusion ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Steimer, S.; Patton, D.; Vu, T.; Panagi, M.; Monks, P.; Harrison, R.; Fleming, Z.; Shi, Z.; Kalberer, M. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/acp-20-13303-2020 | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/13303/2020/ | 13303-13318 | Vol: 20 Issue: 21 | 1680-7324 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | This study investigates the chemical composition of
PM2.5 collected at a central location in Beijing, China, during winter
2016 and summer 2017. The samples were characterised using direct-infusion
negative-nano-electrospray-ionisation ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry
to elucidate the composition and the potential primary and secondary sources
of the organic fraction. The samples from the two seasons were compared with
those from a road-tunnel site and an urban background site in Birmingham,
UK, analysed in the course of an earlier study using the same method. There
were strong differences in aerosol particle composition between the seasons,
particularly regarding (poly-)aromatic compounds, which were strongly
enhanced in winter, likely due to increased fossil fuel and biomass burning
for heating. In addition to the seasonal differences, compositional
differences between high- and low-pollution conditions were observed, with
the contribution of sulfur-containing organic compounds strongly enhanced
under high-pollution conditions. There was a correlation of the number of
sulfur-containing molecular formulae with the concentration of particulate
sulfate, consistent with a particle-phase formation process. |
El Formativo en Tarapacá (3000-1000 aP): Arqueología, naturaleza y cultura en la Pampa del Tamarugal, Desierto de Atacama, norte de Chile | Latin American Antiquity | Uribe, M.; Angelo, D.; Capriles, J.; Castro, V.; de Porras, M.; García, M.; Gayo, E.; González, J.; Herrera, M.; Izaurieta, R.; Maldonado, A.; Mandakovic, V.; McRostie, V.; Razeto, J.; Santana, F.; Santoro, C.; Valenzuela, J.; Vidal, A. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1017/laq.2019.92 | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1045663519000920/type/journal_article | 81-102 | Vol: 31 Issue: 1 | 1045-6635, 2325-5080 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SSCI; AHCI) | | Spanish | In this article, we illustrate the relationships that human societies established with their environment during the Formative period in the Pampa del Tamarugal (3000–1000 BP), Atacama Desert, Chile. We employed a theoretical-methodological perspective that emphasizes the explanatory potential of ecofacts. By mediating between humans and environment, this perspective provides a better understanding of how these societies constructed nature and culture. The purpose is to show that this process was part of a long history of rationalization of the desert, its resources, and the lived experience of the Formative communities that occupied that landscape. Therefore, we propose that this human intervention in Pampa del Tamarugal can be understood not only as an ecological and economic change but also a “cosmological” one. |
Water markets and social–ecological resilience to water stress in the context of climate change: an analysis of the Limarí Basin, Chile | Environment, Development and Sustainability | Urquiza, A.; Billi, M. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1007/s10668-018-0271-3 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-018-0271-3 | 1929–1951 | Vol: 22 | 1387-585X, 1573-2975 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | The paper proposes an analysis of the social–ecological resilience of the Limarí Basin, an agriculture-intensive dryland in the north of Chile, featuring one of the most innovative market-based water managements and the most active water rights market in the country, but concurrently affected by an ongoing water stress situation. The Chilean water market, one of the main examples of the application of neoliberal policies in water management, has received mixed appraisals although, at present, few empirical studies evaluate the social and environmental conditions associated with their operation. This paper, on the contrary, maintains the necessity to assess the capacity of market-based models to face situations of water stress, particularly since mega-drought phenomena are projected to become a recurring and increasing problem during the following decades because of climate change. The study offers a mixed bottom-up and top-down qualitative empirical analysis of how the Chilean water market operates, providing relevant insights into four dimensions of the social–ecological resilience of the watershed: redundancy, diversity and flexibility; connectivity, collaboration and collective action; social–ecological memory and learning; self-organization and governance of system changes. The conclusion is that water scarcity is self-produced: despite the flexibility provided by market-based water management, the combined effect of strong deregulation, of the absence of territorial planning and integrated management of water resources, and of short-term attitudes and generalized mistrust, has led the system to the critical situation it is now facing. |
Seguridad hídrica y energética en América Latina y el Caribe: definición y aproximación territorial para el análisis de brechas y riesgos de la población | | Urquiza, A.; Billi, M. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | | https://www.cepal.org/es/publicaciones/46408-seguridad-hidrica-energetica-america-latina-caribe-definicion-aproximacion | 133 | | | | | Spanish | La crisis sanitaria provocada por la propagación del COVID-19 se superpone a otros complejos desafíos
ya existentes en América Latina y el Caribe, como poner fin a la pobreza en sus múltiples formas o
la necesidad de adoptar medidas urgentes para combatir el cambio climático y sus efectos. En este
contexto es crucial distinguir cómo estas problemáticas tensionan el funcionamiento de servicios
fundamentales para la salud y el desarrollo humano, como lo son los servicios hídricos y energéticos
en la región. Al respecto, en este informe se abordan al menos tres dimensiones del problema, tal
como se explica a continuación. |
Informe Proyecto ARClim: Asentamientos Humanos. Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia , Red de Pobreza Energética, Iniciativa ENEAS: Energía, Agua y Sustentabilidad y Núcleo de Estudios Sistémicos Transdisciplinarios | | Urquiza, A.; Billi, M.; Calvo, R.; Amigo, C.; Navea, J.; Monsalve, T.; Álamos, N.; Neira, C.; Rauld, J.; Allendes, Á.; Arrieta, D.; Barrera, V.; Basoalto, J.; Cárdenas, M.; Contreras, M.; Fleischmann, M.; Horta, D.; Labraña, J.; Larragubel, C.; Muñoz, A.; Oyarzún, T.; Palacios, G.; Peña, D.; Plass, ... | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | | | | | | | | Spanish | |
Landscape evolution and the environmental context of human occupation of the southern pampa del tamarugal, Atacama Desert, Chile | Quaternary Science Reviews | Workman, T.; Rech, J.; Gayó, E.; Santoro, C.; Ugalde, P.; De Pol-Holz, R.; Capriles, J.; Latorre, C. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106502 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379120304649 | 106502 | Vol: 243 | 02773791 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | As with most living organisms, human populations respond to climatic, environmental, and population pressures by transforming their range and subsistence strategies over space and time. An understanding of human ecology can be gained when the archaeological record is placed within the context of dynamic landscape changes and alterations in natural resource availability. We reconstructed the landscape evolution of the Quebrada Maní fan complex, situated along the west-facing slope of the Central Andes in the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert, an area that contains an archaeological record that spans almost 13,000 years. Surficial geologic mapping and dating of three 2–12 km2 study sites, in conjunction with archaeological records and analysis of remotely sensed data for the ∼400 km2 fan complex, was conducted to reconstruct the landscape evolution and the way of life of Paleoindian (ca. 12.8–11.5 ka) and early/late Formative (ca 2.5 to 0.7 ka) social groups.
Just prior to any known human occupation, a large pluvial event in the high Andes, regionally referred to as CAPE I, impacted the Quebrada Maní fan complex from ca.18–16.5 ka. During CAPE I, the Maní fan complex was dominated by perennial stream systems that deposited well-sorted conglomerates in the upper reaches of the fan (Unit T2) and perennial wetlands (Unit B1). This pluvial period was followed by the onset of an extreme drought sometime after 15 ka, but before 13 ka, when wetlands desiccated and the distal reaches of the fan deflated. Sand sheets and sand dunes were deposited across broad reaches of the landscape and Quebrada Maní incised 3–5 m into its floodplain. This drought had profound implications for the distribution of natural resources during the subsequent pluvial event (CAPE II) that ensued from ca. 12.5–9.5 ka. Incision along the upper reaches of the fan caused a more restricted floodplain and allowed the deposition of extensive wetlands along the more distal central reaches of the fan where groundwater emerged. Paleoindian residential open-air camps were placed in these areas. Wetlands were replaced by a tree-covered floodplain during the latter portion of this pluvial event (ca. 10.5–9 ka).
We found no archaeological evidence for human occupations between ∼8–2.5 ka, suggesting a lack of natural resources and/or very low hunter-gatherer population densities. During this time, Quebrada Maní incised up to 8 m into the floodplain. Mudflow deposition – typical of the present-day fan complex – initiated around 2.5 ka, likely responding to an increase in precipitation. This triggered a re-population of the fan surface by Formative agricultural groups that irrigated and extensively farmed these floodplains. By the end of the Formative, these socio-cultural groups became increasingly vulnerable to climatic changes as cut-and-fill cycles in the drainage necessitated major infrastructure adjustments, until the technologies and social-cultural convention of the epoch could not cope with environmental change and investments were abandoned by ∼0.8 ka. |
RedPE (2020). Caracterización del mercado de la leña en Chile y sus barreras para la transición energética | | Álamos, N.; Amigo, C.; Calvo, R.; Chahúan, J.; Correa, V.; Cortés, J.; Labraña, J.; Urquiza, A. | 2020 | Ciudades Resilientes | | http://redesvid.uchile.cl/pobreza-energetica/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/VF.07-dic.Mercado-de-la-len%CC%83a.pdf | | | | | | | En Chile más de la mitad de sus habitantes están expuestos a concentraciones de material
particulado fino (MP2,5)1
por sobre los límites recomendados por la Organización Mundial
de la Salud, llegando a la situación que nueve de las quince ciudades más contaminadas
por MP2,5 de América Latina están en el centro y sur del país (IQ Air, 2018). Considerando
este antecedente, el Estado ha actuado generando políticas públicas orientadas a proteger
la salud de la población, fortaleciendo y revisando la normativa ambiental actual y vigilando
la implementación y desarrollo de Planes de Prevención y Descontaminación Atmosférica
(PPDA). En este contexto, se ha prestado atención a la principal fuente emisora causante de
la contaminación atmosférica en la zona centro sur del país: el consumo de leña residencial |
Comité Científico COP25: Criósfera y Cambio Climático 50 preguntas y respuestas | | Aldunce, P.; Andrade, C.; Anicama, J.; Arana, P.; Azócar, G.; Cabrol, L.; Carrasco, J.; Casanova-Katny, A.; Cavieres, L.; Cereceda-Balic, F.; Christie, D.; Cid-Agüero, P.; Cordero, R.; Crespo, S.; Damiani, A.; Dussaillant-Jones, A.; Fernández, A.; Fernández, C.; Fernandoy, F.; Frangopulos, M.; Fuent... | 2019 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | | https://www.minciencia.gob.cl/comitecientifico/documentos/mesa-criosfera-y-antartica/12.Criosfera-y-cambio-climatico.pdf | | | | | | | La criósfera comprende las partes de la Tierra donde encontramos agua en estado sólido: nieve, glaciares, hielo marino, mantos de hielo y suelos congelados (permafrost). El territorio chileno posee todos estos componentes, pero de ellos, los más relevantes son los glaciares, con alrededor de 24 000 km2 (3 % del área mundial). Sin embargo, los glaciares están en franco retroceso debido al cambio climático. Su distribución varía con la altitud y latitud, con un gradiente desde los Andes Norte y Centro (4.4 %), a la región centro-sur (6.2 %) hasta alcanzar su mayor extensión en la zona de la Patagonia y Tierra del Fuego (89.3 %). La pérdida de masa de hielo en la cordillera de los Andes ha sido de 23 gigatoneladas en los últimos veinte años. Preocupante aspecto, por ser el recurso agua uno de los que está más amenazado actualmente en la zona centro-norte del país. En el marco del cambio climático, la Antártica presenta procesos antagónicos y sinérgicos. Las aguas muy frías del océano tienen una gran capacidad para exportar carbono desde la atmósfera y ejercer un importante control sobre el clima regional y global. No obstante, el calentamiento global está derritiendo una parte de la cobertura de hielo, lo cual libera el hierro atrapado en su interior y potencia la productividad y exportación de carbono al fondo del océano (que estaba originalmente como CO2 en la atmósfera). Sin embargo, esta capacidad del océano de capturar CO2 se contrapone con el riesgo de incrementar su acidificación. |
Elemental and Mineralogical Composition of the Western Andean Snow (18°S–41°S) | Scientific Reports | Alfonso, J.; Cordero, R.; Rowe, P.; Neshyba, S.; Casassa, G.; Carrasco, J.; MacDonell, S.; Lambert, F.; Pizarro, J.; Fernandoy, F.; Feron, S.; Damiani, A.; Llanillo, P.; Sepulveda, E.; Jorquera, J.; Garcia, B.; Carrera, J.; Oyola, P.; Kang, C. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1038/s41598-019-44516-5 | http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44516-5 | 8130 | Vol: 9 Issue: 1 | 2045-2322 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The snowpack is an important source of water for many Andean communities. Because of its importance, elemental and mineralogical composition analysis of the Andean snow is a worthwhile effort. In this study, we conducted a chemical composition analysis (major and trace elements, mineralogy, and chemical enrichment) of surface snow sampled at 21 sites across a transect of about 2,500 km in the Chilean Andes (18–41°S). Our results enabled us to identify five depositional environments: (i) sites 1–3 (in the Atacama Desert, 18–26°S) with relatively high concentrations of metals, high abundance of quartz and low presence of arsenates, (ii) sites 4–8 (in northern Chile, 29–32°S) with relatively high abundance of quartz and low presence of metals and arsenates, (iii) sites 9–12 (in central Chile, 33–35°S) with anthropogenic enrichment of metals, relatively high values of quartz and low abundance of arsenates, (iv) sites 13–14 (also in central Chile, 35–37°S) with relatively high values of quartz and low presence of metals and arsenates, and v) sites 15–21 (in southern Chile, 37–41°S) with relatively high abundance of arsenates and low presence of metals and quartz. We found significant anthropogenic enrichment at sites close to Santiago (a major city of 6 million inhabitants) and in the Atacama Desert (that hosts several major copper mines). |
Dietary diverstiy in the Atacama desert during the Late intermediate period of northern Chile | Quaternary Science Reviews | Alfonso-Durruty, M.; Gayo, E.; Standen, V.; Castro, V.; Latorre, C.; Santoro, C.; Valenzuela, D. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.04.022 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379119300356 | 54-67 | Vol: 214 | 0277-3791 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | The Pacific Ocean that flanks the hyperarid Atacama Desert of Northern Chile is one of the richest biomass producers around the world. Thus, it is considered a key factor for the subsistence of prehistoric societies (including mixed-economy groups), that inhabited its coastal ecosystems as well as the neighboring inland areas. This study assesses the Arica Culture groups' diet (Late Intermediate Period; 1000–1530 CE), through stable isotope (on bone-collagen; δ 13 C and δ 15 N)and dental pathology data. Seventy-seven (n = 77)individuals from two inland (LLU54 and AZ8)and one coastal (CAM8)archaeological sites were studied. Results show an important, but lower than predicted by earlier studies, contribution of marine resources in the diet of all three groups. Dental pathologies and stable isotopes indicate that these groups' diet varied in correlation with their distance to the Pacific Ocean as well as group and individual preferences. The results challenge the idea that Arica Culture groups depended heavily on marine resources for their subsistence. In contrast, this study shows both that the Arica Culture groups’ diet was diverse, and that the terrestrial resources consumed were mostly contributed by C 3 /CAM plants instead of maize. |
Does energy poverty have a female face in Chile? | Tapuya: Latin American Science, Technology and Society | Amigo-Jorquera, C.; Guerrero-González, M.; Sannazzaro, J.; Urquiza-Gómez, A. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1080/25729861.2019.1608038 | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/25729861.2019.1608038 | 1-13 | Vol: 2 | 2572-9861 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The relationship between gender inequalities (GI) and energy poverty (EP) has not been discussed as a whole in worldwide recent debates, although feminist analyses have demonstrated that GI have had an impact on the everyday life of women, men, and their dependents. This research paper addresses the relationship between GI and EP through an analysis of relevant secondary sources on poverty and people’s use of time, in order to understand how GI affect women’s access to energy in Latin America, particularly in Chile. Moreover, it seems that there are reasons to believe that EP has a female face. Therefore, this study looks into strategic policies for ensuring safe and affordable energy for women. Likewise, this research paper presents how these efforts would contribute to deal with some other key issues, such as energy transition and a sustainable development process. To sum up, this investigation identifies the possible benefits that improving energy access would bring to women, as well as how those improvements would consistently help to meet the goals established by international treaties that aim to seek equality for women through ending poverty and by giving them access to energy. |
The Anthropocene in Chile | Environmental Humanities | Bauer, C.; Correa, C.; Gallardo, L.; González, G.; Guridi, R.; Latorre, C.; Navarrete, S.; Pommier, E.; Riffo, S.; Saavedra, B.; Simonetti, C.; Tironi, M. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1215/22011919-7754578 | https://read.dukeupress.edu/environmental-humanities/article/11/2/467/140786/The-Anthropocene-in-ChileToward-a-New-Pact-of | 467-476 | Vol: 11 Issue: 2 | 2201-1919, 2201-1919 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | We, academics, thinkers, activists and professionals, Chileans and foreigners, from the broad spectrum of natural and social sciences, the humanities, the arts and the spiritual world, make a call to rethink from its basis the way in which we inhabit “the human” and its place in the history of the Earth. Our call emerges in response to the Anthropocene, a notion proposed recently by the Subcommittee on Stratigraphy of the International Quaternary Union of Geological Sciences to refer to a geological epoch that would follow the Holocene. As its name reflects, the Anthropocene would be defined by the irreversible changes in the biophysical and geological conditions, at a planetary scale, as a consequence of human actions. In contrast to climate change, the notion of the Anthropocene refers to human influence at a planetary scale. That is, the Anthropocene signals a process that involves the Earth system as a whole and not only some of its components. Similarly, the Anthropocene refers to a process over a significant timescale in the history of Earth and, therefore, beyond specific ecosystemic transformations. Lastly, the Anthropocene indicates the potential extinction of the conditions of the biosphere that enable human life on Earth. Since the changes in the conditions of the biosphere are the result of colonialism, capitalism, and a consumption-oriented society, the Anthropocene has generated an intense debate not only in the field of earth sciences but also in the social sciences, humanities, and the arts. This debate has revolved around the need to rethink the relationship between nature and society; the cohabitation between human and biophysical processes; and the types of knowledge that are required to understand and confront planetary changes. As a concept, however, the Anthropocene risks falling into the anthropocentrism and biocentrism that is precisely at stake. Taking seriously the challenge of the Anthropocene and the need to generate a pact that would be genuinely radical, this manifesto views the Anthropocene as a space to debate and not as a closed scientific category to be accepted. The Anthropocene, as those who sign this manifesto attest, is a call to invent new possible futures. |
A statistical physics approach to perform fast highly-resolved air quality simulations – A new step towards the meta-modelling of chemistry transport models | Environmental Modelling & Software | Bessagnet, B.; Couvidat, F.; Lemaire, V. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.02.017 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S136481521830896X | 100-109 | Vol: 116 | 13648152 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Bronze Open Access | English | A methodology rested on model-based machine learning using simple linear regressions and the parameterizations of the main physics and chemistry processes has been developed to perform highly-resolved air quality simulations. The training of the methodology is (i) completed over a 6-month period using the outputs of the chemical transport model CHIMERE, and (ii) then applied over the subsequent 6 months. Despite rough assumptions, this new methodology performs as well as the raw CHIMERE simulation for daily mean concentrations of the main criteria air pollutants (NO2, Ozone, PM10 and PM2.5) with correlations ranging from 0.75 to 0.83 for the particulate matter and up to 0.86 for the maximum ozone concentrations. Some improvements are investigated to expand this methodology to several other uses, but at this stage the method can be used for air quality forecasting, analysis of pollution episodes and mapping. This study also confirms that including a minimum set of selected physical parameterizations brings a high added value on machine learning processes. |
What is the ‘Social’ in Climate Change Research? A Case Study on Scientific Representations from Chile | Minerva | Billi, M.; Blanco, G.; Urquiza, A. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.1007/s11024-019-09369-2 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11024-019-09369-2 | 293-315 | Vol: 57 Issue: 3 | 0026-4695 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SSCI) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | Over the last few decades climate change has been gaining importance in international scientifc and political debates. However, the social sciences, especially in Latin America, have only lately become interested in the subject and their approach is still vague. Scientifc understanding of global environmental change and the process of designing public policies to face them are characterized by their complexity as well as by epistemic and normative uncertainties. This makes it necessary to problematize the way in which research eforts understand ‘the social’ of climate change. How do ‘the climate’ and ‘the social’ interpenetrate as scientifc objects? What does the resulting feld look like? Is the combination capable of promoting refexivity and collaboration on the issue, or does it merely become dispersed with difuse boundaries? Our paper seeks to answer these and other related questions using Chile as a case study and examining peer-reviewed scientifc research on the topic. By combining in-depth qualitative content analysis of each paper with a statistical meta-analysis, we were able to: characterize the key content and forms of such literature; identify divisions and patterns within it; and, discuss some factors and trends that may help explain these. We conclude that the literature displays two competing trends: while it is inclined to become fragmented beyond the scope of the ‘mitigation’ black box, it also tends to cluster along the lines of methodological distinctions traditionally contested within the social sciences. This, in turn, highlights the persistence of disciplinary divisions within an allegedly interdisciplinary feld. |
Dynamical downscaling over the complex terrain of southwest South America: present climate conditions and added value analysis | Climate Dynamics | Bozkurt, D.; Rojas, M.; Boisier, J.; Rondanelli, R.; Garreaud, R.; Gallardo, L. | 2019 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras | 10.1007/s00382-019-04959-y | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-019-04959-y | 6745-6767 | Vol: 53 Issue: 11 | 0930-7575 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | This study evaluates hindcast simulations performed with a regional climate model (RCM, RegCM4) driven by reanalysis data (ERA-Interim) over the Pacific coast and Andes Cordillera of extratropical South America. A nested domain configuration at \(0.44^{\circ }\) ( \(\sim\) 50 km) and \(0.09^{\circ }\) ( \(\sim\) 10 km) spatial resolutions is used for the simulations. RegCM4 is also driven by a global climate model (GCM, MPI-ESM-MR) on the same domain configuration to asses the added values for temperature and precipitation (historical simulations). Overall, both 10 km hindcast and historical simulation results are promising and exhibit a better representation of near-surface air temperature and precipitation variability compared to the 50 km simulations. High-resolution simulations suppress an overestimation of precipitation over the Andes Cordillera of northern Chile found with the 50 km simulations. The simulated daily temperature and precipitation extreme indices from 10 km hindcast simulation show a closer estimation of the observed fields. A persistent warm bias ( \(\sim +\,{4\,}^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) ) over the Atacama Desert in 10 km hindcast simulation reveals the complexity in representing land surface and radiative processes over the desert. Difficulties in capturing the temperature trend in northern Chile are notable for both hindcast simulations. Both resolutions exhibit added values for temperature and precipitation over large parts of Chile, in particular, the 10 km resolves the coastal-valley Andes transitions over central Chile. Our results highlight that resolutions coarser than 50 km (e.g., GCMs and reanalysis) miss important climate gradients imposed by complex topography. Given that the highest spatial resolution of the current regional simulations over the South America is about 50 km, higher resolutions are important to improve our understanding of the dynamical processes that determine climate over complex terrain and extreme environments. |
Comentarios Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2 a la consulta ciudadana de primera actualización 2019 de la Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional (NDC) de Chile. Diciembre 2019 | | Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2 | 2019 | Agua y Extremos; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Resumen-Comentarios-CR2_NDC-2019_02122019.pdf | | | | | | | |
Comité Científico COP25: Nueve medidas basadas en el océano para las Contribuciones Determinadas a nivel Nacional de Chile | | Farías, L.; Ubilla, K.; Aguirre, C.; Bedriñana, L.; Cienfugos, R.; Delgado, V.; Fernández, C.; Fernández, M.; Gaxiola, A.; González, H.; Hucke-Gaete, R.; Marquet, P.; Montencino, V.; Morales, C.; Narváez, D.; Osses, M.; Peceño, B.; Quiroga, E.; Ramajo, L.; Sepúlveda, H.; Soto, D.; Vargas, E.; Viddi,... | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes; Zonas Costeras | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Nueve-soluciones-para-NDC.pdf | 1-93 | | | | | English | Las Contribuciones Determinadas a nivel Nacional (NDC, por sus siglas en inglés) se han convertido en un instrumento clave para comprometer principalmente metas de mitigación y adaptación al cambio climático. Gestadas en el Acuerdo de París (2015) aspiran a cumplir dos de sus objetivos más ambiciosos: mantener el incremento de la temperatura global muy por debajo de los 2°C, respecto a la era preindustrial, y fortalecer y aumentar la capacidad de adaptación y resiliencia a los efectos adversos del cambio climático. La actualización de las NDC el año 2020 las llevará a convertirse en un instrumento ambicioso y con trazabilidad, luego de la declaración de limitar a 1.5 °C el incremento de temperatura al 2030 (IPCC, 2018) y la cumbre del clima de Katowice (COP24). Chile, ejerciendo la presidencia de la COP25, se debe comprometer a metas más ambiciosas, transparentes y progresivas, entre ellas, la carbono- neutralidad, la COP azul y la economía circular. La mesa Océanos del Comité Científico COP25, a partir de una metodología participativa y colaborativa, propone nueve medidas basadas en el océano, para contribuir a la meta de reducción de sus emisiones, y realiza un análisis de los alcances que tiene la primera propuesta de actualización de las NDC (2020) en el tema océano. Las medidas propuestas en este informe colindan con acciones que: 1) favorecen el secuestro de carbono, como soluciones basada en naturaleza (carbono azul); 2) reducen las emisiones de gases con efecto invernadero (GEI) en la economía del océano; y 3) abordan la vulnerabilidad, riesgos e impactos del cambio climático en el sector pesca y acuicultura, enfocándose en la inequidad social y de género, y la construcción de capacidades relativa a implementar un sistema observación del océano y reducir brechas en su conocimiento, gestión y administración. Se refuerza en el concepto de entierro de carbono como el resultado del funcionamiento a largo plazo de una compleja red de procesos del ciclo del carbono, donde los sedimentos marinos y suelos costeros se constituyen como el mayor reservorio de largo aliento de carbono en el planeta. Al respecto, se reúnen antecedentes de la ventaja competitiva que tiene Chile respecto a la protección de fondos marinos, marismas y bosques de algas pardas; ecosistemas de fundamental importancia para la mitigación del cambio climático, pero, específicamente, vulnerables a su impacto y a la acción humana. Respecto a la economía del océano, la reducción de la emisión de GEI por parte de actividades como el transporte marítimo, acuicultura y el uso de energías marinas son medidas muy factibles e internacionalmente comprobadas, cuyos costos-beneficios van en directa relación con los compromisos y mercados internacionales. Este es especialmente relevante para la acuicultura y la economía circular. Finalmente, para adaptarse deben existir capacidades en un Sistema Integrado de Observación del Océano Chileno (SIOOC) que incluya alertas ambientales tempranas y proyecciones, de modo de reducir riesgos y conflictividades ambientales y sociales, y disminuir las brechas de conocimiento, de gobernanza y económicas respecto al océano. Lo que importa es transformar los compromisos en acciones/medidas trazables, y al respecto, dada su vocación oceánica y su dependencia a este medio, Chile debe tener unas NDC ambiciosas que incluyan los hábitats y ecosistemas marinos (carbono azul) en los presupuestos de carbono nacional (además de las contribuciones en materia de cambio de uso de la tierra y silvicultura, UTCUTS), declarar co-beneficios, dar valoración económica de los servicios ecosistémicos ambientales, y formular políticas públicas dirigidas a la conservación. El presente informe releva la necesidad de generar voluntad política para fortalecer el marco normativo y/o legislativo que permita proteger a los sistemas costeros que cumplen importantes funciones para el cambio climático; fortalecer la capacidad adaptativa de las comunidades pesqueras y acuicultoras, y comprometer Áreas Marinas Protegidas con planes de manejo al corto plazo de modo de aumentar el nivel de ambición y alcanzar la carbono neutralidad. |
Informe a las naciones: El Antropoceno en Chile: evidencias y formas de avanzar | | Gallardo, L.; Rudnick, A.; Barraza, J.; Fleming, Z.; Rojas, M.; Gayo, E.; Aguirre, C.; Farías, L.; Boisier, J.; Garreaud, R.; Barría, P.; Miranda, A.; Lara, A.; Gómez-González, S.; Arriagada, R. | 2019 | Agua y Extremos; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Informe-Antropoceno-castellano.pdf | 40 | | | cr2.cl | | English | En el siglo XXI, el desarrollo de Chile está en juego debido a las amenazas planteadas por el Antropoceno. Esta época se caracteriza por la influencia humana sobre el sistema terrestre. Sin embargo, si se enfrenta con audacia, ofrece una oportunidad para un desarrollo sostenible. Independientemente de si hemos entrado en una nueva era geológica, el Antropoceno cuestiona nuestra forma de vivir en el planeta azul del sistema solar. O, dicho de otra manera, la forma de entender el progreso y el desarrollo. En un país con grandes desigualdades sociales, altamente vulnerable al cambio global, enfrentar este desafío es de crucial importancia y puede ofrecer nuevas oportunidades. |
Procurement of camelid fiber in the hyperarid Atacama Desert coast: Insights from stable isotopes | Quaternary International | Gayo, E.; Martens, T.; Stuart-Williams, H.; Fenner, J.; Santoro, C.; Carter, C.; Cameron, J. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.quaint.2019.12.008 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1040618219309322 | 71-83 | Vol: 548 | 10406182 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Pastoralism and camelid management are traditionally attributed to the sociopolitical, economic and cosmovision of Andean populations, rather than to lowland hunter gatherer societies, living on the Pacific coast where camelid hunting is considered a marginal activity, and husbandry is a difficult enterprise given the hyper-arid conditions of lowland terrestrial ecosystems. Contrary to this interpretative historical view, our stable isotope analyses applied to 48 camelid fiber samples, suggests this highly valued camelid byproduct was obtained from camelids sustained on lomas vegetation formations during the Archaic (ca. 6500-4000 cal yr BP), Formative (ca. 4000-1500 cal yr BP) and Late periods (ca. 660-480 cal yr BP). |
Geohistorical records of the Anthropocene in Chile | Elem Sci Anth | Gayo, E.; McRostie, V.; Campbell, R.; Flores, C.; Maldonado, A.; Uribe-Rodriguez, M.; Moreno, P.; Santoro, C.; Christie, D.; Muñoz, A.; Gallardo, L. | 2019 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1525/elementa.353 | https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.353/ | 15 | Vol: 7 Issue: 1 | 2325-1026 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The deep-time dynamics of coupled socio-ecological systems at different
spatial scales is viewed as a key framework to understand trends and
mechanisms that have led to the Anthropocene. By integrating archeological
and paleoenvironmental records, we test the hypothesis that Chilean
societies progressively escalated their capacity to shape national
biophysical systems as socio-cultural complexity and pressures on natural
resources increased over the last three millennia. We demonstrate that
Pre-Columbian societies intentionally transformed Chile’s northern and
central regions by continuously adjusting socio-cultural practices and/or
incorporating technologies that guaranteed resource access and social
wealth. The fact that past human activities led to cumulative impacts on
diverse biophysical processes, not only contradicts the notion of pristine
pre-Industrial Revolution landscapes, but suggests that the Anthropocene
derives from long-term processes that have operated uninterruptedly since
Pre-Columbian times. Moreover, our synthesis suggests that most of
present-day symptoms that describe the Anthropocene are rooted in
pre-Columbian processes that scaled up in intensity over the last 3000
years, accelerating after the Spanish colonization and, more intensely, in
recent decades. The most striking trend is the observed coevolution between
the intensity of metallurgy and heavy-metal anthropogenic emissions. This
entails that the Anthropocene cannot be viewed as a universal imprint of
human actions that has arisen as an exclusive consequence of modern
industrial societies. In the Chilean case, this phenomenon is intrinsically
tied to historically and geographically diverse configurations in
society-environment feedback relationships. Taken collectively with other
case studies, the patterns revealed here could contribute to the discussion
about how the Anthropocene is defined globally, in terms of chronology,
stratigraphic markers and attributes. Furthermore, this deep-time narrative
can potentially become a science-based instrument to shape better-informed
discourses about the socio-environmental history in Chile. More importantly,
however, this research provides crucial “baselines” to delineate safe
operating spaces for future socio-ecological systems. |
Circulation of Objects and Raw Material in the Atacama Desert, Northern Chile by the End of the Pleistocene | PaleoAmerica | Herrera, K.; Pelegrin, J.; Gayo, E.; Santoro, C. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1080/20555563.2019.1697999 | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20555563.2019.1697999 | 1-14 | Vol: 5 | 2055-5563, 2055-5571 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | | English | About 13,000 calendar years ago, the Atacama Desert (18–26°S) was occupied by some of the human groups who had begun to populate South America. The archaeological evidence from six sites located in Pampa del Tamarugal (PdT) it the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert, including different objects and raw materials, shows a connection with different geographical areas within and outside PdT: (a) local circuits to acquire resources from the Pampa; (b) regional displacements that covered the coast and the Andes, more than 70 km away from PdT; and (c) displacements or interactions at a supra-regional level that connected PdT with the tropical and subtropical forests of South America, more than 600 km away. We propose a preliminary model for the local circuits that covers displacements from 40 minutes to 13 hours walking distance from residential locations to obtain fresh water, wood, rocks for knapping, and hunting activities. |
Spiky fluctuations and scaling in high-resolution EPICA ice core dust fluxes | Climate of the Past | Lovejoy, S.; Lambert, F. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/cp-15-1999-2019 | https://www.clim-past.net/15/1999/2019/ | 1999-2017 | Vol: 15 Issue: 6 | 1814-9332 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Atmospheric variability as a function of scale has been divided in various
dynamical regimes with alternating increasing and decreasing fluctuations:
weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate, and megaclimate. Although a vast
amount of data are available at small scales, the larger picture is not well
constrained due to the scarcity and low resolution of long paleoclimatic
time series. Using statistical techniques originally developed for the study of turbulence, we analyse the fluctuations of a centimetric-resolution dust flux time series from the EPICA Dome C ice core in Antarctica that spans the past 800 000 years. The temporal resolution ranges from annual at the top of the core to 25 years at the bottom, enabling the detailed statistical analysis and comparison of eight glaciation cycles and the subdivision of each cycle into eight consecutive phases. The unique span and resolution of the dataset allows us to analyse the macroweather and climate scales in detail. We find that the interglacial and glacial maximum phases of each cycle showed particularly large macroweather to climate transition scale τc (around 2 kyr), whereas mid-glacial phases feature centennial transition scales (average of 300 years). This suggests that interglacials and glacial maxima are exceptionally stable when compared with the rest of a glacial cycle. The Holocene (with τc≈7.9 kyr) had a particularly large τc, but it was not an outlier when compared with the phases 1 and 2 of other cycles. We hypothesize that dust variability at larger (climate) scales appears to be predominantly driven by slow changes in glaciers and vegetation cover,
whereas at small (macroweather) scales atmospheric processes and changes in
the hydrological cycles are the main drivers. For each phase, we quantified the drift, intermittency, amplitude, and extremeness of the variability. Phases close to the interglacials (1, 2, 8)
show low drift, moderate intermittency, and strong extremes, while the
“glacial” middle phases 3–7 display strong drift, weak intermittency, and weaker extremes. In other words, our results suggest that glacial maxima, interglacials, and glacial inceptions were characterized by relatively stable atmospheric conditions but punctuated by frequent and severe droughts, whereas the mid-glacial climate was inherently more unstable. |
La compleja definición del problema socioambiental: racionalidades y controversias | Revista Mad | Morales, B.; Aliste, E.; Neira, C.; Urquiza, A. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5354/0719-0527.2019.54834 | https://doi.org/10.5354/0719-0527.2019.54834 | 43-51 | Vol: 40 | 0718-0527 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | Spanish | Drawing from a qualitative approach, this article addresses some of the elements that allow thematizing the socioenvironmental problem from its own complexity, and considering the point of view of different actors, which are part of this discussion in the Chilean context, and giving special emphasis on the controversies generated around the terms “development” and “sustainability.” First, we address the elements – theoretical and empirical – that allow thematizing the complexity of the socioenvironmental problem. Second, we discuss a number of definitions given to “development” and their link to the origins of the problem. Third, we present options proposed by actors to move towards sustainability. The article concludes with reflections oriented to multiple perspectives about this issue. |
Multidecadal environmental pollution in a mega-industrial area in central Chile registered by tree rings | Science of The Total Environment | Muñoz, A.; Klock-Barría, K.; Sheppard, P.; Aguilera-Betti, I.; Toledo-Guerrero, I.; Christie, D.; Gorena, T.; Gallardo, L.; González-Reyes, Á.; Lara, A.; Lambert, F.; Gayo, E.; Barraza, F.; Chávez, R. | 2019 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133915 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969719338653 | 133915 | Vol: 696 | 0048-9697 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | One of the most polluted areas in Chile is the Ventanas Industrial Area (VIA; 32.74°S / 71.48°W), which started in 1958 and today comprises around 16 industries in an area of ca. 4 km2. A lack of consistent long-term instrumental records precludes assessing the history of contamination in the area and also limits the evaluation of mitigation actions taken since the late 1980s. Here, we use dendrochemistry as an environmental proxy to analyze environmental changes over several decades at the VIA. We present chemical measurements of tree rings from planted, exotic Cupressus macrocarpa growing near the VIA with 4-year resolution over a period of 52 years (1960–2011). These data provide unprecedented information on regional anthropogenic pollution and are compared with a tree-ring elemental record of 48 years (1964–2011) from the Isla Negra (INE) control site not exposed to VIA emissions. For the 48 years of overlap between both sites, higher concentrations of Zn, V, Co, Cd, Ag, Fe, Cr, and Al were especially registered after the year 2000 at VIA compared to INE for the periods under study. Concentrations of Pb, Cu, As, Fe, Mo, Cr, and Zn increased through time, particularly over the period 1980–1990. Decontamination plans activated in 1992 appear to have had a positive effect on the amount of some elements, but the chemical concentration in the tree rings suggest continued accumulation of pollutants in the environment. Only after several years of implementation of the mitigation measures have some elements tended to decrease in concentration, especially at the end of the evaluated period. Dendrochemistry is a useful tool to provide a long-term perspective of the dynamics of trace metal pollution and represents a powerful approach to monitor air quality variability to extend the instrumental records back in time. |
Comité Científico COP25: Ciudades y cambio climático en Chile: Recomendaciones desde la evidencia científica | | Muñoz, J.; Barton, J.; Frías, D.; Godoy, A.; Bustamante, W.; Cortés, S.; Munizaga, M.; Rojas, C.; Wagemann, E.; Smith, P.; Gallardo, L. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | | https://www.minciencia.gob.cl/comitecientifico/documentos/mesa-ciudades/Ciudades-y-CC-en-Chile-Recomendaciones-desde-evidencia-cientifica.pdf | | | | | | | En el marco de las preparaciones del Gobierno de Chile frente a la COP25, y como parte de las actividades del Comité Científico COP25 establecido por el Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología, Conocimiento e Innovación, este documento tiene tres propósitos. El primero es reunir información de varios documentos de política pública relacionados con ciudades y cambio climático en Chile. El segundo es destacar la situación urbana en Chile en relación con los temas de mitigación (movilidad; edificación, equipamiento y energía; residuos y economía circular), adaptación (riesgos y desastres; infraestructura y espacios verdes; vulnerabilidad y salud) y gobernanza. El tercero es presentar propuestas de acción en formato de fichas que pretenden contribuir a reducir las emisiones que surgen desde ciudades y reducir la vulnerabilidad en los asentamientos humanos en Chile frente al cambio climático. Estas propuestas se han estructurado en torno a metas, identificando instituciones que debieran participar de ellas, sugiriendo plazos posibles en que estas medidas podrían implementarse, caracterizando beneficios que estas medidas generarían y destacando evidencia científica que las avala. Dada la complejidad propia de la gobernanza urbana, estas medidas debieran considerarse en coordinación entre la sociedad civil, el sector público y el sector privado. La mesa Ciudades reúne los aportes de más de cincuenta académicos de diez universidades con el objeto de contribuir desde múltiples disciplinas a opciones de acción urbana frente a los desafíos del cambio climático. |
Comité Científico COP25: Chilean NDC mitigation proposal: Methodological approach and supporting ambition. Mitigation and energy working group report | | Palma-Behnke, R.; Barría, C.; Basoa, K.; Benavente, D.; Benavides, C.; Campos, B.; de la Maza, N.; Farías, L.; Gallardo, L.; García, M.; Gonzales, L.; Guarda, F.; Guzmán, R.; Jofré, A.; Mager, J.; Martínez, R.; Montedonico, M.; Morán, L.; Muñoz, L.; Osses, M.; Pica, A.; Rojas, M.; Rudnick, A.; SanMa... | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras | | https://comitecientifico.minciencia.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/The_Chilean_Potential_for_Exporting_Renewable_Energy_web.pdf | | | | | | | This paper analyses the Chilean Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) proposal for the mitigation component. The methodological approach and the supporting ambition of a process carried out by the Chilean Government are assessed based on the scientific evidence available and local context. The analysis is developed by representatives of four ministries and a group of 21 researchers from six universities and research centers throughout the country. This exchange experience between the Government and the scientific community enables the identification of future challenges and opportunities for the Chilean transition in terms of mitigation. This process emerges from a bridging approach led by the recently assumed Minister of Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation under the presidency of the Government of Chile in the Conference of the Parties (COP25) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). After a description of the methodological approach, key topics that have an impact on the NDC definition are identified and analyzed. These topics include technical, economical, and socio-environmental issues along with a description of the current socio-political context in the country. Additionally, the major uncertainties that would have the highest potential to modify the results and conclusions of this work are identified. Finally, a summary with the main conclusions and recommendations is presented. The analysis framework and key aspects identified in this exercise may be of value for other countries with similar institutional contexts. |
Rare calcium chloride–rich soil and implications for the existence of liquid water in a hyperarid environment | Geology | Pfeiffer, M.; Latorre, C.; Gayo, E.; Amundson, R. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1130/G45642.1 | https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article/47/2/163/568106/Rare-calcium-chloriderich-soil-and-implications | 163-166 | Vol: 47 Issue: 2 | 0091-7613 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | We discovered permanently hydrated CaCl2-rich soils in Earth’s driest region, the Atacama Desert. The soils contain up to ∼15% CaCl2. X-ray diffraction indicates the rare minerals sinjarite, schoenite, and tachyhydrite. When water is added, the CaCl2 crust immediately turns white due to an apparent mineralogical phase change from sinjarite to a brine. The surfaces are nearly continuously wet due to the salt’s hygroscopicity. The Ca-enriched soils occur in rare exposures, possibly from shallow groundwater. Unlike the surface of adjacent abundant halite crusts, the CaCl2 outcrops remain continuously wet, with up to 12% water under modern, and essentially rainless, climatic conditions. The wet surface stabilizes the land surface and acts as a dust trap. The sediment began accumulating at ca. 14 ka, contains trace quantities of organic carbon, and has total nitrogen that isotopically reflects significant biologically mediated gaseous losses. These deliquescent salts are unique habitats for life within the climatic limits of life on Earth, and are a potential analog for transient liquid-water sources for microorganisms in Martian soils. |
Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | Rojas, M.; Lambert, F.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Challinor, A. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.1073/pnas.1811463116 | http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1811463116 | 6673-6678 | Vol: 116 Issue: 14 | 0027-8424 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Bronze Open Access; Green Open Access | English | A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability—the time of emergence (TOE)—is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early (<2040) emergence of precipitation trends for all four crops. Reduced (increased) precipitation trends encompass 1–14% (3–31%) of global production of maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Comparing results for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 clearly shows that emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement result in far less cropped land experiencing novel climates. However, the existence of a TOE, even under the lowest emission scenario, and a small probability for early emergence emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. We also show how both the urgency of adaptation and the extent of mitigation vary geographically. |
Black carbon and other light-absorbing impurities in snow in the Chilean Andes | Scientific Reports | Rowe, P.; Cordero, R.; Warren, S.; Stewart, E.; Doherty, S.; Pankow, A.; Schrempf, M.; Casassa, G.; Carrasco, J.; Pizarro, J.; MacDonell, S.; Damiani, A.; Lambert, F.; Rondanelli, R.; Huneeus, N.; Fernandoy, F.; Neshyba, S. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes; Zonas Costeras | 10.1038/s41598-019-39312-0 | http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-39312-0 | art: 4008 | Vol: 9 Issue: 1 | 2045-2322 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Vertical profiles of black carbon (BC) and other light-absorbing impurities were measured in seasonal snow and permanent snowfields in the Chilean Andes during Austral winters 2015 and 2016, at 22 sites between latitudes 18°S and 41°S. The samples were analyzed for spectrally-resolved visible light absorption. For surface snow, the average mass mixing ratio of BC was 15 ng/g in northern Chile (18–33°S), 28 ng/g near Santiago (a major city near latitude 33°S, where urban pollution plays a significant role), and 13 ng/g in southern Chile (33–41°S). The regional average vertically-integrated loading of BC was 207 µg/m 2 in the north, 780 µg/m 2 near Santiago, and 2500 µg/m 2 in the south, where the snow season was longer and the snow was deeper. For samples collected at locations where there had been no new snowfall for a week or more, the BC concentration in surface snow was high (~10–100 ng/g) and the sub-surface snow was comparatively clean, indicating the dominance of dry deposition of BC. Mean albedo reductions due to light-absorbing impurities were 0.0150, 0.0160, and 0.0077 for snow grain radii of 100 µm for northern Chile, the region near Santiago, and southern Chile; respective mean radiative forcings for the winter months were 2.8, 1.4, and 0.6 W/m 2 . In northern Chile, our measurements indicate that light-absorption by impurities in snow was dominated by dust rather than BC. © 2019, The Author(s). |
Glacier decline in the Central Andes (33°S): Context and magnitude from satellite and historical data | Journal of South American Earth Sciences | Ruiz Pereira, S.; Veettil, B. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.jsames.2019.102249 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0895981119301026 | 102249 | Vol: 94 | 0895-9811 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Central Andes (33°S) represent a water-scarce region. During arid years, glacier runoffmay constitute the mainhydrological input at warm season and hence a steadfast deglacierization may represent a decrease in the re-gional water-budget. Ice-retreat enables landscape transitions from proglacial towards a paraglacial environ-ment, allowing the formation of newly formed cryogenic deposits. Ice-surface changes in the Central Andes(33°S), including the high-mountain areas from Aconcagua, Mendoza and Maipo basins (Argentina and Chile),were studied using digitalized maps, aerial photographs, Landsat (1–8) and Sentinel-2A data for the periodbetween 1956 and 2015. Band ratio and Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) methods were tested usingLandsat 8 and Sentinel-2A data for comparison. Geomorphological changes were assessed at Monos de Aguacatchment (2750–4000 m a.s.l.) in the Aconcagua basin (Chile) as a regionally representative landscape tran-sition case. Regional glacier shrinkage of 46 ± 5% between 1956 and 2016 was observed for the CentralAndean sub-basins in both Argentina and Chile at 33°S. Overall, 107.1 ± 5 km2of newly exposed surfaces aresubject to permafrost conditions. Such insights raise concern in terms of current and future environmental as-sessments for newly formed cryospheric elements in water scarce regions.1. IntroductionGlaciers around the world are losing mass at an unprecedented pacein the early 21st century (Zemp et al., 2015); South American Andes arenot exception (Davies and Glasser, 2012;Veettil et al., 2017a, 2017b).Andes Mountains in Chile and Argentina have more than 4000 km inlength from 17°30′Sto49oS, most of them are glacierized and the typeof glacier, climate, and topography vary latitudinally along the Andes(Lliboutry and Corte, 1998).Andean Glaciers can either belong to Dry Andes (17°30′Sto35oS) orWet Andes (35oSto49oS). Central Andes (between 31oS and 35oS),which is a part of the Dry Andes in Chile and Argentina, had a gla-cierized area of nearly 2200 km2(Lliboutry and Corte, 1998). Rock-glaciers, protalus and gelifluction lobes are predominant cryoformsbetween 31°S and 33°S and white glaciers are predominant featuresbetween 33°S and 49°S (García et al., 2017). The Andes MountainRange at 33°S has neoglacial and glacial limits oscillating between 3000and 3300 m a.s.l. for Chile and between and 3400–3650 m a.s.l. forArgentina, respectively (Espizua, 1993), despite the fact that thesemountain ranges belongs to similar climatic conditions.Photogrammetry and remote sensing have been a complementaryand sometimes alternative for traditional glaciological observations athigh altitudes (Paul et al., 2016; Veettil and de Souza, 2017). Recently,Veettil and Kamp (2017)discussed the suitability of various remotesensing data and methods for long-term monitoring of snow and ice inthe tropical Andes, mentioning the potential of high spatial resolutionsatellite data for delineating glacier boundaries. Medium resolutionLandsat series satellite data were mostly used since mid-1970s and thelatest of this series–Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI)–hasbetter geometric stability and radiometric performance (Kääb et al.,2016). Recently, images from the multispectral instrument (MSI) of theSentinel-2A satellite launched by the European Space Agency (ESA) areavailable at no cost from the United States Geological Survey (USGS).These data have been predicted to enhance worldwide glacier mon-itoring (Kääb et al., 2016) and have a spatial resolution of 10 m in fourand 20 m in six visible and infrared channels, instead of 15–30 m forLandsat 8. Further improvement is the higher temporal resolution (10days for Sentinel 2A instead of 16 days for Landsat 8 and better swathhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsames.2019.102249Received 13 March 2019; Received in revised form 6 June 2019; Accepted 24 June 2019∗Corresponding author. Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.E-mail address:bijeesh.veettil@tdtu.edu.vn(B.K. Veettil).Journal of South American Earth Sciences 94 (2019) 102249Available online 27 June 20190895-9811/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.T |
FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE TROPICAL FORESTS: NETWORKS OF SOCIAL INTERACTION IN THE ATACAMA DESERT, LATE IN THE PLEISTOCENE | Chungará (Arica) | Santoro, C.; Gayo, E.; Capriles, J.; Rivadeneira, M.; Herrera, K.; Mandakovic, V.; Rallo, M.; Rech, J.; Cases, B.; Briones, L.; Olguín, L.; Valenzuela, D.; Borrero, L.; Ugalde, P.; Rothhammer, F.; Latorre, C.; Szpak, P. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.4067/S0717-73562019005000602 | http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-73562019005000602&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en | 5-25 | Vol: 51 Issue: 1 | 0717-7356 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SSCI) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The social groups that initially inhabited the hyper arid core of the Atacama Desert of northern Chile during the late Pleistocene integrated a wide range of local, regional and supra regional goods and ideas for their social reproduction as suggested by the archaeological evidence contained in several open camps in Pampa del Tamarugal (PdT). Local resources for maintaining their every-day life, included stone raw material, wood, plant and animal fibers, game, and fresh water acquired within a radius of -30 km (ca. 1-2 days journey). At a regional scale, some goods were introduced from the Pacific coast (60-80 km to the west, ca. 3-4 days journey), including elongated rounded cobbles used as hammer stones in lithic production, and shells, especially from non-edible species of mollusks. From the Andes (ranging 80-150 km to the east, ca. 5-8 days of journey), they obtained camelid fiber, obsidian and a high-quality chalcedony, in addition to sharing knowledge on projectile point designs (Patapatane and Tuina type forms). Pieces of wood of a tropical forest tree species (Ceiba spp.) from the east Andean lowlands (600 km away, ca. 30 days of journey) were also brought to the PdT. While local goods were procured by the circulation of people within the PdT, the small number of foreign items would have been acquired through some sort of exchange networks that integrated dispersed local communities throughout several ecosystems. These networks may have been a key factor behind the success exhibited by these early hunter-gatherers in the hyper arid ecosystems of the Atacama Desert at the end of the Pleistocene. Different lines of archaeological evidence including open camps, workshop-quarries, lithic artifacts, archaeofaunal remains, plant and animal fibers and textiles, archaeobotanical remains, and paleoecological data show that people of the PdT managed a wide range of cultural items from the Pacific coast, the Andean highland and the tropical forest, that were integrated with resources gathered locally within the socio-cultural systems established by the end of the Pleistocene. These results are interpreted as material expressions of multi-scalar networking for resource management and other social material and immaterial requirements, which in other words, means that these people were actively connected to regional (coastal and highland), and supra-regional (trans-Andean) exchange networks from and out of the PdT. |
A perched, high-elevation wetland complex in the Atacama Desert (northern Chile) and its implications for past human settlement | Quaternary Research | Sitzia, L.; Gayo, E.; Sepulveda, M.; González, J.; Ibañez, L.; Queffelec, A.; De Pol-Holz, R. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1017/qua.2018.144 | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0033589418001448/type/journal_article | 33-52 | Vol: 92 Issue: 1 | 0033-5894 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | A previously undocumented type of wetland is described from the Atacama Desert in northern Chile (3000 m above sea level), sustained exclusively by direct precipitation and perched above the regional water table. Geomorphological mapping, pedostratigraphy, geochemistry, and analysis of contemporary vegetation is used to understand wetland formation and dynamics during historical and present time periods. The paleowetland deposits overlie a Miocene tuff that acts as an impermeable barrier to water transfer and creates conditions for local shallow ground water. These deposits include several paleosols that were formed during periods when precipitation increased regionally at 7755–7300, 1270, 545, and 400–300 cal yr BP. The similarity in timing with other palaeohydrological records for the Atacama implies that paleosols from this wetland are proxies for reconstructing past changes in local and regional hydrological cycle. Archaeological investigations have revealed the presence of two small farms from the Late Intermediate period, i.e., during the earliest wetter phase represented by the paleosols. Both farms are located near the paleowetland deposits, which suggests that local inhabitants exploited these water sources during late pre-Hispanic times. Results of this study improve knowledge of settlement patterns during this and earlier cultural periods. |
Perception of thermal comfort in outdoor public spaces in the medium-sized city of Chillán, Chile, during a warm summer | Urban Climate | Smith, P.; Henríquez, C. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100525 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212095518301962 | 100525 | Vol: 30 | 2212-0955 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | The study of thermal comfort in Latin American cities has been gaining great relevance for urban environmental planning. Some studies have evaluated the relationship between environmental and perceived comfort; however, the causes and social determinants of the different perceptions of the population have not been explored. The perception of thermal comfort in public spaces in the city of Chillán (Chile), which has an inland Mediterranean climate, is discussed in this context. First, we measured the environmental thermal comfort, adapting the Actual Sensation Vote index. A survey of 362 users of the five selected public spaces was carried out between 29 January and 01 February 2016 to obtain perceived comfort and relate it to the individual climatic history, use of public space and place of residence in the city. The results show that perceived thermal discomfort dominates over comfort on summer days; however, those users who visit public spaces for recreational purposes feel more comfortable, as well as those living in low socioeconomic status (SES) neighborhoods. On the other hand, users living in areas with higher socioeconomic status, have higher expectations regarding thermal environmental conditions. |
Public Spaces as Climate Justice Places? Climate Quality in the City of Chillán, Chile | Environmental Justice | Smith, P.; Henríquez, C. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1089/env.2018.0041 | https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/env.2018.0041 | 164-174 | Vol: 12 Issue: 4 | 1939-4071, 1937-5174 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | | English | The transformations brought about by climate change and the continued growth of cities are having an impact on urban climate. In urban spaces, especially in public spaces, environmental conditions are becoming more uncomfortable and this is affecting the health and quality of life of city dwellers. This study of climate quality in the city of Chillán revealed that there are insufficient public spaces to provide acceptable environmental quality for the entire population. It also showed that high-income areas, located in the peri-urban zones of the city, enjoy a better climate, environment, and air quality. This article analyzes urban climate injustice, as evidenced by the sharp socioeconomic differences in the quality of environment to which urban residents are exposed, and highlights the need for public spaces to improve the environmental quality for residents. © 2019, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. |
Analysis of exposure to fine particulate matter using passive data from public transport | Atmospheric Environment | Trewhela, B.; Huneeus, N.; Munizaga, M.; Mazzeo, A.; Menut, L.; Mailler, S.; Valari, M.; Ordoñez, C. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.116878 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1352231019305084 | 116878 | Vol: 215 | 1352-2310 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | The city of Santiago experiences extreme pollution events during winter due to particulate matter and the associated health impact depends on the exposure to this pollutant, particularly to PM2.5. We present and apply a method that estimates the exposure of users of the public transport system of Santiago by combining smart card mobility data with measured surface concentrations from the monitoring network of Santiago and simulated concentrations by the CHIMERE model. The method was applied between July 20th and 24th of 2015 to 105,588 users corresponding to 12% of the frequent users of the public transport system and approximately 2% of the total population of Santiago. During those five days, estimated exposure based on measured concentrations varied between 44 and 75 μg/m3 while exposure based on simulated concentrations varied between 45 and 89 μg/m3. Furthermore, including socioeconomic conditions suggests an inverse relationship between exposure and income when measured concentrations are used, i.e. the lower the income the higher the exposure, whereas no such relationship is observed when using simulated concentrations. Although only exposure to PM2.5 was considered in this study, the method can also be applied to estimate exposure to other urban pollutant such as ozone. |
In-stream wetland deposits, megadroughts, and cultural change in the northern Atacama Desert, Chile | Quaternary Research | Tully, C.; Rech, J.; Workman, T.; Santoro, C.; Capriles, J.; Gayo, E.; Latorre, C. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1017/qua.2018.122 | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0033589418001229/type/journal_article | 63-80 | Vol: 91 Issue: 1 | 0033-5894 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | A key concern regarding current and future climate change is the possibility of sustained droughts that can have profound impacts on societies. As such, multiple paleoclimatic proxies are needed to identify megadroughts, the synoptic climatology responsible for these droughts, and their impacts on past and future societies. In the hyperarid Atacama Desert of northern Chile, many streams are characterized by perennial flow and support dense in-stream wetlands. These streams possess sequences of wetland deposits as fluvial terraces that record past changes in the water table. We mapped and radiocarbon dated a well-preserved sequence of in-stream wetland deposits along a 4.3-km reach of the Río San Salvador in the Calama basin to determine the relationship between regional climate change and the incision of in-stream wetlands. The Río San Salvador supported dense wetlands from 11.1 to 9.8, 6.4 to 3.5, 2.8 to 1.3, and 1.0 to 0.5 ka and incised at the end of each of these intervals. Comparison with other in-stream wetland sequences in the Atacama Desert, and with regional paleoclimatic archives, indicates that in-stream wetlands responded similarly to climatic changes by incising during periods of extended drought at ~9.8, 3.5, 1.3, and 0.5 ka. |
Quality as a hidden dimension of energy poverty in middle-development countries. Literature review and case study from Chile | Energy and Buildings | Urquiza, A.; Amigo, C.; Billi, M.; Calvo, R.; Labraña, J.; Oyarzún, T.; Valencia, F. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.enbuild.2019.109463 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378778818319790 | 109463 | Vol: 204 | 0378-7788 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | The paper proposes a literature review and meta-analysis on different dimensions and approaches with respect to energy poverty and examines Chile as a case study for its manifestations in middle development countries. This phenomenon has acquired greater relevance, with a variety of definitions, indicators and methodologies being used to measure it. However, most of them are focused on either quantifying the lack of access to modern energy services in poor countries or assessing the inequality produced by the costs of accessing such services in developed countries. This results in the lack of a proper toolbox to tackle middle development countries, such as Chile: where access-based measures assign thresholds that are too low, so that almost nobody is energy poor; conversely, equality-based measures deploy excessively high ones, so that a very large proportion of the population is energy poor. The paper argues that this deficit is caused by the understanding of quality in terms of “standards” in access- and equality-based measures, which restricts its potential in economically, culturally, and geographically diverse territories. A context-sensitive three-dimensional framework to assess energy poverty is then proposed, and its policy implications are briefly discussed. |
Gobernanza policéntrica y problemas ambientales en el siglo XXI: desafíos de coordinación social para la distribución de recursos hídricos en Chile | Persona y Sociedad | Urquiza, A.; Amigo, C.; Billi, M.; Cortés, J.; Labraña, J. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | | https://personaysociedad.uahurtado.cl/index.php/ps/article/view/258 | 133-160 | Vol: 33 | 0719-0883 | Latindex | | Spanish | La sociedad contemporánea debe lidiar con importantes transformaciones en su entorno biofísico, impulsando una reflexión en las ciencias sociales y ecológicas sobre las características que deben tener los procesos de gobernanza ambiental, especialmente frente a aquellos bienes que adolecen de límites de propiedad y dominio haciendo surgir problemas de coordinación (por ejemplo la ‘tragedia de los comunes’). La literatura al respecto destaca la existencia de distintos niveles organizacionales y escalas territoriales que deberían ser articulados (coordinación vertical). Si bien este tipo de gobernanza, denominada policéntrica, ha tenido un creciente impacto en la discusión científica, en este artículo se argumenta que los análisis omiten un atributo central de la sociedad moderna –las racionalidades comunicativas autónomas (coordinación horizontal)– cuya consideración es necesaria para diseñar formas efectivas de gobernanza ambiental. Para sostener esta tesis, se analiza la institucionalidad relacionada con la gobernanza hídrica en Chile, discutiendo la clásica polarización entre Estado y mercado, e identificando esfuerzos policéntricos. Paralelamente se analizan los principios teóricos que establecen la necesidad de considerar distintas racionalidades comunicativas al momento de diseñar políticas enfocadas en el tratamiento de problemas ambientales. Finalmente, se identifican inciativas ya existentes en esta línea y desafíos relacionados con su aplicación a la gobernanza hídrica. |
Andean caravan ceremonialism in the lowlands of the Atacama Desert: The Cruces de Molinos archaeological site, northern Chile | Quaternary International | Valenzuela, D.; Cartajena, I.; Santoro, C.; Castro, V.; Gayo, E. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.quaint.2018.09.016 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1040618218301101 | 37-47 | Vol: 533 | 10406182 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Camelid caravans have played a key role in the complex systems of interregional social interaction that characterizes Andean history. In the northernmost region of Chile, the most frequent archaeological indicators of these caravan systems are trails and rock art images. Cruces de Molinos (LL-43), a rock art site in the Lluta valley, 1100 masl, 40 km from the Pacific littoral, expands the ceremonial role of rock art sites, materialized, not only as regards the iconography portrayed and alluding to these practices, but also in terms of articulated carcass remains and detached anatomical units of camelids, intentionally deposited in a cache beneath one of the engraved blocks. This paper analyzes the site considering the visual imagery, spatial location, archaeological deposits and features associated with rock art.
Based on the predominance of camelid and caravan motifs in rock art images, the extraordinary setting and location of the site on the valley's upper slopes, which is far removed from local settlements, but closely connected with a llama caravan trade network linking the chaupiyunga ecozone with the highlands (sierra and Altiplano ecozones), we suggest that Cruces de Molinos was not a rest stop for caravanners, but a ceremonial place, and not for local farmers, but for highland herders. According to seven accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dates that place the occupation between cal. 1060–1190 CE in the Late Intermediate period. |
Estimation of atmospheric total organic carbon (TOC) – paving the path towards carbon budget closure | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Yang, M.; Fleming, Z. | 2019 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/acp-19-459-2019 | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/19/459/2019/ | 459-471 | Vol: 19 Issue: 1 | 1680-7324 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | The atmosphere contains a rich variety of reactive organic compounds, including gaseous volatile organic carbon (VOCs), carbonaceous aerosols, and other organic compounds at varying volatility. Here we present a novel and simple approach to measure atmospheric non-methane total organic carbon (TOC) based on catalytic oxidation of organics in bulk air to carbon dioxide. This method shows little sensitivity towards humidity and near 100% oxidation efficiencies for all VOCs tested. We estimate a best-case hourly precision of 8 ppbC during times of low ambient variability in carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon monoxide (CO). As proof of concept of this approach, we show measurements of TOCCCO during August–September 2016 from a coastal city in the southwest United Kingdom. TOCCCO was substantially elevated during the day on weekdays (occasionally over 2 ppm C) as a result of local anthropogenic activity. On weekends and holidays, with a mean (standard error) of 102 (8) ppb C, TOCCCO was lower and showed much less diurnal variability. TOCCCO was significantly lower when winds were coming off the Atlantic Ocean than when winds were coming off land if we exclude the weekday daytime. By subtracting the estimated CO from TOCCCO, we constrain the mean (uncertainty) TOC in Atlantic-dominated air masses to be around 23 ( 8) ppbC during this period. A proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) was deployed at the same time, detecting a large range of organic compounds (oxygenated VOCs, biogenic VOCs, aromatics, dimethyl sulfide). The total speciated VOCs from the PTRMS, denoted here as Sum(VOC), amounted to a mean (uncertainty) of 12 ( 3) ppbC in marine air. Possible contributions from a number of known organic compounds present in marine air that were not detected by the PTR-MS are assessed within the context of the TOC budget. Finally, we note that the use of a short, heated sample tube can improve the transmission of organics to the analyzer, while operating our system alternately with and without a particle filter should enable a better separation of semi-volatile and particulate organics from the VOCs within the TOC budget. Future concurrent measurements of TOC, CO, and a more comprehensive range of speciated VOCs would enable a better characterization and understanding of the atmospheric organic carbon budget. |
Climate change governance in the Anthropocene: Emergence of Polycentrism in Chile | Elem Sci Anth | Arriagada, R.; Aldunce, P.; Blanco, G.; Ibarra, C.; Moraga, P.; Nahuelhual, L.; O'Ryan, R.; Urquiza, A.; Gallardo, L. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.1525/elementa.329 | https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.329/ | 68 | Vol: 6 Issue: 1 | 2325-1026 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Multilateral efforts are essential to an effective response to climate change, but individual nations define climate action policy by translating local and global objectives into adaptation and mitigation actions. We propose a conceptual framework to explore opportunities for polycentric climate governance, understanding polycentricity as a property that encompasses the potential for coordinating multiple centers of semiautonomous decision-making. We assert that polycentrism engages a diverse array of public and private actors for a more effective approach to reducing the threat of climate change. In this way, polycentrism may provide an appropriate strategy for addressing the many challenges of climate governance in the Anthropocene. We review two Chilean case studies: Chile’s Nationally Determined Contribution on Climate Change and the Chilean National Climate Change Action Plan. Our examination demonstrates that Chile has included a diversity of actors and directed significant financial resources to both processes. The central government coordinated both of these processes, showing the key role of interventions at higher jurisdictional levels in orienting institutional change to improve strategic planning and better address climate change. Both processes also provide some evidence of knowledge co-production, while at the same time remaining primarily driven by state agencies and directed by technical experts. Efforts to overcome governance weaknesses should focus on further strengthening existing practices for climate change responses, establishing new institutions, and promoting decision-making that incorporates diverse social actors and multiple levels of governance. In particular, stronger inclusion of local level actors provides an opportunity to enhance polycentric modes of governance and improve climate change responses. Fully capitalizing on this opportunity requires establishing durable communication channels between different levels of governance. |
Status and future of numerical atmospheric aerosol prediction with a focus on data requirements | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Benedetti, A.; Reid, J.; Knippertz, P.; Marsham, J.; Di Giuseppe, F.; Rémy, S.; Basart, S.; Boucher, O.; Brooks, I.; Menut, L.; Mona, L.; Laj, P.; Pappalardo, G.; Wiedensohler, A.; Baklanov, A.; Brooks, M.; Colarco, P.; Cuevas, E.; da Silva, A.; Escribano, J.; Flemming, J.; Huneeus, N.; Jorba, O.; K... | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/acp-18-10615-2018 | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/10615/2018/ | 10615-10643 | Vol: 18 Issue: 14 | 1680-7324 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Numerical prediction of aerosol particle properties has become an important activity at many research and operational weather centers. This development is due to growing interest from a diverse set of stakeholders, such as air quality regulatory bodies, aviation and military authorities, solar energy plant managers, climate services providers, and health professionals. Owing to the complexity of atmospheric aerosol processes and their sensitivity to the underlying meteorological conditions, the prediction of aerosol particle concentrations and properties in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) framework faces a number of challenges. The modeling of numerous aerosol-related parameters increases computational expense. Errors in aerosol prediction concern all processes involved in the aerosol life cycle including (a) errors on the source terms (for both anthropogenic and natural emissions), (b) errors directly dependent on the meteorology (e.g., mixing, transport, scavenging by precipitation), and (c) errors related to aerosol chemistry (e.g., nucleation, gas-aerosol partitioning, chemical transformation and growth, hygroscopicity). Finally, there are fundamental uncertainties and significant processing overhead in the diverse observations used for verification and assimilation within these systems. Indeed, a significant component of aerosol forecast development consists in streamlining aerosol-related observations and reducing the most important errors through model development and data assimilation. Aerosol particle observations from satellite- and ground-based platforms have been crucial to guide model development of the recent years and have been made more readily available for model evaluation and assimilation. However, for the sustainability of the aerosol particle prediction activities around the globe, it is crucial that quality aerosol observations continue to be made available from different platforms (space, near surface, and aircraft) and freely shared. This paper reviews current requirements for aerosol observations in the context of the operational activities carried out at various global and regional centers. While some of the requirements are equally applicable to aerosol-climate, the focus here is on global operational prediction of aerosol properties such as mass concentrations and optical parameters. It is also recognized that the term "requirements" is loosely used here given the diversity in global aerosol observing systems and that utilized data are typically not from operational sources. Most operational models are based on bulk schemes that do not predict the size distribution of the aerosol particles. Others are based on a mix of "bin" and bulk schemes with limited capability of simulating the size information. However the next generation of aerosol operational models will output both mass and number density concentration to provide a more complete description of the aerosol population. A brief overview of the state of the art is provided with an introduction on the importance of aerosol prediction activities. The criteria on which the requirements for aerosol observations are based are also outlined. Assimilation and evaluation aspects are discussed from the perspective of the user requirements. |
Economía de la Pobreza Energética ¿Por qué y cómo garantizar un acceso universal y equitativo a la energía? | Economía y Política | Billi, M.; Amigo, C.; Calvo, R.; Urquiza, A. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.15691./07194714.2018.006 | http://www.economiaypolitica.cl/index.php/eyp/article/view/58/63 | 35-65 | Vol: 5 | 0719-4803 | Scopus | | Spanish | The aspiration to guarantee a universal and equitable access to modern and nonpolluting energies, and specifically the notion of ‘energy poverty’, have lately been gaining increasing relevance as objectives of social policy. However, there lacks a profound reflection on the economic justifications and considerations that could motivate and guide public initiatives in this direction, especially for what concerns Chile. Although the existence of failures in the private provision of energy can lay the foundations for a public intervention in the sector, they are not enough to justify minimum consumption standards as those required by the idea of e nergy poverty. Such standards, on the contrary, are consistent with an understanding of energy as a merit good, a good whose consumption should be propitiated independently of the preferences of its beneficiaries. The above observation is enhanced considering the growing emphasis placed by the specialized literature on transiting from definitions of energy poverty limited to the lack of economic or technological opportunities for the access to energy, towards more comprehensive and multidimensional understandings of the phenomenon. Within the latter, energy poverty must be understood in relation with the effective capacity of every person and household to access energy services adequate to meet their needs. In turn, this places a new emphasis on the equalization of the effective benefits that energy provides to its users –as opposed to, the mere equalization of the opportunity of gaining access to the energy services that the market provides. This shift in attention should lead to give increased relevance to the incorporation of recent findings from behavioural economics, regarding the understanding and intervention of the contexts, habits and consumption decisions from which those benefits depend. |
Anthropogenic drying in central-southern Chile evidenced by long-term observations and climate model simulations | Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene | Boisier, J.; Alvarez-Garretón, C.; Cordero, R.; Damiani, A.; Gallardo, L.; Garreaud, R.; Lambert, F.; Ramallo, C.; Rojas, M.; Rondanelli, R. | 2018 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras | 10.1525/elementa.328 | https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.328/ | 74 | Vol: 6 Issue: 1 | 2325-1026 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-climate changes in Chile. Based on the analysis of long-term records (50+ years) of precipitation and streamflow, we confirm a tendency toward a dryer condition in central-southern Chile (30–48°S). We describe the geographical and seasonal character of this trend, as well as the associated large-scale circulation pat- terns. When a large ensemble of climate model simulations is contrasted to observations, anthropogenic forcing appears as the leading factor of precipitation change. In addition to a drying trend driven by greenhouse gas forcing in all seasons, our results indicate that the Antarctic stratospheric ozone deple- tion has played a major role in the summer rainfall decline. Although average model results agree well with the drying trend’s seasonal character, the observed change magnitude is two to three times larger than that simulated, indicating a potential underestimation of future projections for this region. Under present-day carbon emission rates, the drying pathway in Chile will likely prevail during the next decades, although the summer signal should weaken as a result of the gradual ozone layer recovery. The trends and scenarios shown here pose substantial stress on Chilean society and its institutions, and call for urgent action regarding adaptation measures. |
Local and remote black carbon sources in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires | Atmospheric Environment | Diaz Resquin, M.; Santágata, D.; Gallardo, L.; Gómez, D.; Rössler, C.; Dawidowski, L. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.03.018 | http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1352231018301560 | 105-114 | Vol: 182 | 1352-2310 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | Equivalent black carbon () mass concentrations in the fine inhalable fraction of airborne particles () were determined using a 7-wavelength Aethalometer for 17 months, between November 2014 and March 2016, for a suburban location of the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (MABA), Argentina. In addition to describing seasonal and diurnal black carbon (BC) cycles for the first time in this region, the relative contributions of fossil fuel and remote and local biomass burning were determined by distinguishing different carbonaceous components based on their effect on light attenuation for different wavelengths. Trajectory analyses and satellite-based fire products were used to illustrate the impact of long-range transport of particles emitted by non-local sources. EBC data showed a marked diurnal cycle, largely modulated by traffic variations and the height of the boundary layer, and a seasonal cycle with monthly median EBC concentrations (in ) ranging from 1.5 (February) to 3.4 (June). Maximum values were found during winter due to the combination of prevailingly stable atmospheric conditions and the increase of fossil fuel emissions, derived primarily from traffic and biomass burning from the domestic use of wood for heating. The use of charcoal grills was also detected and concentrated during weekends. The average contribution of fossil fuel combustion sources to concentrations was 96%, with the remaining 4% corresponding to local and regional biomass burning. During the entire study period, only two events were identified during which concentrations attributed to regional biomass burning accounted for over 50% of total ; these events demonstrate the relevance of agricultural and forestry activities that take place far from the city yet whose emissions can affect the urban atmosphere of the MABA. |
New insights into the use of stable water isotopes at the northern Antarctic Peninsula as a tool for regional climate studies | The Cryosphere | Fernandoy, F.; Tetzner, D.; Meyer, H.; Gacitúa, G.; Hoffmann, K.; Falk, U.; Lambert, F.; MacDonell, S. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/tc-12-1069-2018 | https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/1069/2018/ | 1069-1090 | Vol: 12 Issue: 3 | 1994-0424 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Due to recent atmospheric and oceanic warming, the Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most challenging regions of Antarctica to understand in terms of both local- and regional-scale climate signals. Steep topography and a lack of long-term and in situ meteorological observations complicate the extrapolation of existing climate models to the sub-regional scale. Therefore, new techniques must be developed to better understand processes operating in the region. Isotope signals are traditionally related mainly to atmospheric conditions, but a detailed analysis of individual components can give new insight into oceanic and atmospheric processes. This paper aims to use new isotopic records collected from snow and firn cores in conjunction with existing meteorological and oceanic datasets to determine changes at the climatic scale in the northern extent of the Antarctic Peninsula. In particular, a discernible effect of sea ice cover on local temperatures and the expression of climatic modes, especially the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), is demonstrated. In years with a large sea ice extension in winter (negative SAM anomaly), an inversion layer in the lower troposphere develops at the coastal zone. Therefore, an isotope–temperature relationship (δ–T) valid for all periods cannot be obtained, and instead the δ–T depends on the seasonal variability of oceanic conditions. Comparatively, transitional seasons (autumn and spring) have a consistent isotope–temperature gradient of +0.69 ‰ °C−1. As shown by firn core analysis, the near-surface temperature in the northern-most portion of the Antarctic Peninsula shows a decreasing trend (−0.33 °C year−1) between 2008 and 2014. In addition, the deuterium excess (dexcess) is demonstrated to be a reliable indicator of seasonal oceanic conditions, and therefore suitable to improve a firn age model based on seasonal dexcess variability. The annual accumulation rate in this region is highly variable, ranging between 1060 and 2470 kg m−2 year−1 from 2008 to 2014. The combination of isotopic and meteorological data in areas where data exist is key to reconstruct climatic conditions with a high temporal resolution in polar regions where no direct observations exist. |
d 18 O of Fissurella maxima as a proxy for reconstructing Early Holocene sea surface temperatures in the coastal Atacama desert (25S) | Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology | Flores, C.; Gayo, E.; Salazar, D.; Broitman, B. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.palaeo.2018.03.031 | http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S003101821730874X | 22-34 | Vol: 499 | 0031-0182 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Fissurella maxima is a keyhole limpet that is abundant and well preserved in archaeological shell midden sites along the coast of Chile, making it an appropriate species to use for reconstructions of past sea surface temperature (SST). In the present study we evaluate the potential of F. maxima shells as a proxy of SST by analysing δ18O of modern shells collected alive from the Atacama desert (area of Taltal, 25°S) and archaeological shells from two Early Holocene rockshelter sites: 224A and Paposo Norte 9. Reconstructed SST from modern F. maxima shells were related to SST obtained from in situ thermometers, supporting the use of this mollusc species as a paleotemperature archive. Mean SST reconstructed from Early Holocene archaeological shells (14.13 °C) was 2.86 °C cooler than mean temperature recorded in modern shells (16.99 °C). Mean SST reconstructed from modern shells was ~1.04 °C warmer than the mean temperature of in situ thermometers (15.95°C). Hence the paleo–SST data from archaeological sites 224A and Paposo Norte 9 enrich the Early Holocene nearshore paleoceanographic scenario of the Pacific coast of South America, with mean SST cooler than present-day SST. Our results validate the use of F. maxima shells as a SST proxy and contribute to a better understanding of the latitudinal distribution of the coastal upwelling regime during the Early Holocene, temporal changes in the structure of the Humboldt Current along the Holocene, and its influence on human adaptation through the prehistory of South America. |
Synchronization of energy consumption by human societies throughout the Holocene | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | Freeman, J.; Baggio, J.; Robinson, E.; Byers, D.; Gayo, E.; Finley, J.; Meyer, J.; Kelly, R.; Anderies, J. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1073/pnas.1802859115 | http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1802859115 | 9962-9967 | Vol: 115 Issue: 40 | 0027-8424 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | We conduct a global comparison of the consumption of energy by human populations throughout the Holocene and statistically quantify coincident changes in the consumption of energy over space and time—an ecological phenomenon known as synchrony. When populations synchronize, adverse changes in ecosystems and social systems may cascade from society to society. Thus, to develop policies that favor the sustained use of resources, we must understand the processes that cause the synchrony of human populations. To date, it is not clear whether human societies display long-term synchrony or, if they do, the potential causes. Our analysis begins to fill this knowledge gap by quantifying the long-term synchrony of human societies, and we hypothesize that the synchrony of human populations results from (i) the creation of social ties that couple populations over smaller scales and (ii) much larger scale, globally convergent trajectories of cultural evolution toward more energy-consuming political economies with higher carrying capacities. Our results suggest that the process of globalization is a natural consequence of evolutionary trajectories that increase the carrying capacities of human societies. |
Evolution of air quality in Santiago: The role of mobility and lessons from the science-policy interface | Elem Sci Anth | Gallardo, L.; Barraza, F.; Ceballos, A.; Galleguillos, M.; Huneeus, N.; Lambert, F.; Ibarra, C.; Munizaga, M.; O'Ryan, R.; Osses, M.; Tolvett, S.; Urquiza, A.; Véliz, K. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.1525/elementa.293 | https://www.elementascience.org/article/10.1525/elementa.293/ | 38 | Vol: 6 Issue: 1 | 2325-1026 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Worldwide, urbanization constitutes a major and growing driver of global change and a distinctive feature of the Anthropocene. Thus, urban development paths present opportunities for technological and societal transformations towards energy efficiency and decarbonization, with benefits for both greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollution mitigation. This requires a better understanding of the intertwined dynamics of urban energy and land use, emissions, demographics, governance, and societal and biophysical processes. In this study, we address several characteristics of urbanization in Santiago (33.5°S, 70.5°W, 500 m a.s.l.), the capital city of Chile. Specifically, we focus on the multiple links between mobility and air quality, describe the evolution of these two aspects over the past 30 years, and review the role scientific knowledge has played in policy-making. We show evidence of how technological measures (e.g., fuel quality, three-way catalytic converters, diesel particle filters) have been successful in decreasing coarse mode aerosol (PM10) concentrations in Santiago despite increasing urbanization (e.g., population, motorization, urban sprawl). However, we also show that such measures will likely be insufficient if behavioral changes do not achieve an increase in the use of public transportation. Our investigation seeks to inform urban development in the Anthropocene, and our results may be useful for other developing countries, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean where more than 80% of the population is urban. |
Spatial and temporal disaggregation of the on-road vehicle emission inventory in a medium-sized Andean city. Comparison of GIS-based top-down methodologies | Atmospheric Environment | Gómez, C.; González, C.; Osses, M.; Aristizábal, B. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.01.049 | http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1352231018300633 | 142-155 | Vol: 179 | 1352-2310 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Emission data is an essential tool for understanding environmental problems associated with sources and dynamics of air pollutants in urban environments, especially those emitted from vehicular sources. There is a lack of knowledge about the estimation of air pollutant emissions and particularly its spatial and temporal distribution in South America, mainly in medium-sized cities with population less than one million inhabitants. This work performed the spatial and temporal disaggregation of the on-road vehicle emission inventory (EI) in the medium-sized Andean city of Manizales, Colombia, with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km and a temporal resolution of 1 h. A reported top-down methodology, based on the analysis of traffic flow levels and road network distribution, was applied. Results obtained allowed the identification of several hotspots of emission at the downtown zone and the residential and commercial area of Manizales. Downtown exhibited the highest percentage contribution of emissions normalized by its total area, with values equal to 6% and 5% of total CO and PM10 emissions per km2 respectively. These indexes were higher than those obtained in residential-commercial area with values of 2%/km2 for both pollutants. Temporal distribution showed strong relationship with driving patterns at rush hours, as well as an important influence of passenger cars and motorcycles in emissions of CO both at downtown and residential-commercial areas, and the impact of public transport in PM10 emissions in the residential-commercial zone. Considering that detailed information about traffic counts and road network distribution is not always available in medium-sized cities, this work compares other simplified top-down methods for spatially assessing the on-road vehicle EI. Results suggested that simplified methods could underestimate the spatial allocation of downtown emissions, a zone dominated by high traffic of vehicles. The comparison between simplified methods based on total traffic counts and road density distribution suggested that the use of total traffic counts in a simplified form could enhance higher uncertainties in the spatial disaggregation of emissions. Results obtained could add new information that help to improve the air pollution management system in the city and contribute to local public policy decisions. Additionally, this work provides appropriate resolution emission fluxes for ongoing research in atmospheric modeling in the city, with the aim to improve the understanding of transport, transformation and impacts of pollutant emissions in urban air quality. |
VEIN v0.2.2: an R package for bottom–up vehicular emissions inventories | Geoscientific Model Development | Ibarra-Espinosa, S.; Ynoue, R.; O'Sullivan, S.; Pebesma, E.; Andrade, M.; Osses, M. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/gmd-11-2209-2018 | https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/2209/2018/ | 2209-2229 | Vol: 11 Issue: 6 | 1991-9603 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Emission inventories are the quantification of pollutants
from different sources. They provide important information
not only for climate and weather studies but also for
urban planning and environmental health protection. We developed
an open-source model (called Vehicular Emissions
Inventory – VEIN v0.2.2) that provides high-resolution vehicular
emissions inventories for different fields of studies.
We focused on vehicular sources at street and hourly levels
due to the current lack of information about these sources,
mainly in developing countries.
The type of emissions covered by VEIN are exhaust (hot
and cold) and evaporative considering the deterioration of
the factors. VEIN also performs speciation and incorporates
functions to generate and spatially allocate emissions
databases. It allows users to load their own emission factors,
but it also provides emission factors from the road transport
model (Copert), the United States Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) and Brazilian databases. The VEIN model
reads, distributes by age of use and extrapolates hourly traffic
data, and it estimates emissions hourly and spatially. Based
on our knowledge, VEIN is the first bottom–up vehicle emissions
software that allows input to the WRF-Chem model.
Therefore, the VEIN model provides an important, easy and
fast way of elaborating or analyzing vehicular emissions inventories
under different scenarios. The VEIN results can be
used as an input for atmospheric models, health studies, air
quality standardizations and decision making. |
Indoor PM2.5 in an urban zone with heavy wood smoke pollution: The case of Temuco, Chile | Environmental Pollution | Jorquera, H.; Barraza, F.; Heyer, J.; Valdivia, G.; Schiappacasse, L.; Montoya, L. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.envpol.2018.01.085 | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29414372 | 477-487 | Vol: 236 | 0269-7491 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Temuco is a mid-size city representative of severe wood smoke pollution in southern Chile; however, little is known about the indoor air quality in this region. A field measurement campaign at 63 households in the Temuco urban area was conducted in winter 2014 and is reported here. In this study, indoor and outdoor (24-hr) PM2.5 and its elemental composition were measured and compared. Infiltration parameters and outdoor/indoor contributions to indoor PM2.5 were also determined. A statistical evaluation of how various air quality interventions and household features influence indoor PM2.5 was also performed. This study determined median indoor and outdoor PM2.5 concentrations of 44.4 and 41.8 μg/m3, respectively. An average infiltration factor (0.62 ± 0.06) was estimated using sulfur as a tracer species. Using a simple mass balance approach, median indoor and outdoor contributions to indoor PM2.5 concentrations were then estimated as 12.5 and 26.5 μg/m3, respectively; therefore, 68% of indoor PM2.5 comes from outdoor infiltration. This high percentage is due to high outdoor pollution and relatively high household air exchange rates (median: 1.06 h−1). This study found that S, Br and Rb were dominated by outdoor contributions, while Si, Ca, Ti, Fe and As originated from indoor sources. Using continuous indoor and outdoor PM2.5 measurements, a median indoor source strength of 75 μg PM2.5/min was estimated for the diurnal period, similar to literature results. For the evening period, the median estimate rose to 135 μg PM2.5/min, reflecting a more intense wood burning associated to cooking and space heating at night. Statistical test results (at the 90% confidence level) support the ongoing woodstove replacement program (reducing emissions) and household weatherization subsidies (reducing heating demand) for improving indoor air quality in southern Chile, and suggest that a cookstove improvement program might be helpful as well. In the city of Temuco, southern Chile, 68% of indoor PM2.5 comes from severe outdoor pollution due to intensive wood burning, enhanced by poor household building standards and fuel poverty. |
Ambient PM10 impacts brought by the extreme flooding event of March 24–26, 2015, in Copiapó, Chile | Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health | Jorquera, H.; Villalobos, A.; Barraza, F. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1007/s11869-018-0549-5 | http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11869-018-0549-5 | 341–351 | Vol: 11 | 1873-9318 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | On March 24–26, 2015, the Chilean city of Copiapó (27° 22′ S, 70° 20′ W), located in the hyperarid Atacama Desert, suffered an intense flooding brought by an extreme, unique rainfall event with a 35-year record of daily precipitation. A receptor model (positive matrix factorization, version 5) analysis, applied to ambient PM10 chemical speciation from three short-term sampling campaigns, resolved four sources: crustal/road dust, sea salt, secondary sulfates, and emissions from Paipote copper smelter located 8 km east of Copiapó. Wind trajectories computed with US NOAA’s Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) supported the above source identification and explained variability in source contributions. It was found that crustal/road dust increased 50 μg/m3, in April 8–10, 2015, as compared with values in November 2014 and October–November 2015, respectively. This was the dominant PM10 source after the flooding and before debris were cleaned up, being on order of magnitude higher that the other source contributions. The Paipote copper smelter contributed with primary PM10 emissions and secondary sulfates; this combined contribution averaged 11.8 μg/m3. Sea salt contributions contributed an average of 3.3 μg/m3. In normal conditions, crustal/road dust averaged 2.9 μg/m3, but the other resolved sources also contributed with crustal elements as their emissions are transported by winds to Copiapó. The positive matrix factorization solution included an unresolved concentration of 7.4 μg/m3. The small number of samples and the lack of measurements of nitrate, ammonia, and organic and elemental carbon may explain this result. Hence, sources such as secondary nitrates and combustion sources plus fugitive dust from sources surrounding Copiapó might be included in that unresolved concentration. |
The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan | Geoscientific Model Development | Kageyama, M.; Braconnot, P.; Harrison, S.; Haywood, A.; Jungclaus, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Peterschmitt, J.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Albani, S.; Bartlein, P.; Brierley, C.; Crucifix, M.; Dolan, A.; Fernandez-Donado, L.; Fischer, H.; Hopcroft, P.; Ivanovic, R.; Lambert, F.; Lunt, D.; Mahowald, N.; Peltier, W.;... | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018 | https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/1033/2018/ | 1033-1057 | Vol: 11 Issue: 3 | 1991-9603 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | This paper is the first of a series of four GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) – Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016).
The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21 000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127 000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs. |
Towards an environmental education for a complex society. an analysis from the social systems theory; [Hacia una educación ambiental para una sociedad compleja. Un análisis desde la teoría de sistemas sociales] | Revista Mad | Labraña, J.; Amigo, C.; Cortés, J.; Gómez, E.; Moreno, J.; Muñoz, M. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5354/0719-0527.2018.53283 | https://revistamad.uchile.cl/index.php/RMAD/article/view/53283/55965 | 13-45 | Vol: - Issue: 39 | 0718-0527 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | | Spanish | As a result of the multiple ecological problems affecting contemporary society, environmental education has become increasingly important in recent decades. However, despite its importance, this concern does not seem to have gone hand in hand with the consideration of environmental education within the framework of a complex enought sociological theory. As we will argue in this article, this has had important effects in the conceptualization of environmental education, which is hence generally described as a process of ethical socialization with the aim of improving society. Using the distinctions of Luhmann's social systems theory of social systems between a) psychic and social systems and b) different functional systems, we will propose an understanding of environmental education as an intentional effort to socialize about the relationship between society and its physical environment, which, as part of the communications of a specialized system, reflect society's form of differentiation. Once this definition is proposed, we will propose a model of environmental education for a functionally differentiated society, taking Chile as example. The article closes with a summary, future lines of research and policy recommendations. © 2018 Universidad de Chile. All rights reserved. |
Impact of residential combustion and transport emissions on air pollution in Santiago during winter | Atmospheric Environment | Mazzeo, A.; Huneeus, N.; Ordoñez, C.; Orfanoz-Cheuquelaf, A.; Menut, L.; Mailler, S.; Valari, M.; Denier van der Gon, H.; Gallardo, L.; Muñoz, R.; Donoso, R.; Galleguillos, M.; Osses, M.; Tolvett, S. | 2018 | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.06.043 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1352231018304345 | 195-208 | Vol: 190 | 1352-2310 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | Santiago (33.5°S, 70.5°W), the capital of Chile, is frequently affected by extreme air pollution events during wintertime deteriorating air quality (AQ) and thus affecting the health of its population. Intense residential heating and on-road transport emissions combined with poor circulation and vertical mixing are the main factors responsible for these events. A modelling system composed of a chemistry-transport model (CHIMERE) and a meteorological model (WRF) was implemented to assess the AQ impacts of residential and transportation sources in the Santiago basin. A two-week period of July 2015 with various days with poor AQ was simulated focusing on the impact on AQ with respect to fully inhalable particles (PM2.5) and nitrogen oxides (NOX). Three emission scenarios, within the range of targeted reductions of the decontamination plan of Santiago, were tested; namely 50% reduction of residential emission, 50% reduction of transport emissions and the combination of both. An additional scenario decreasing transport emissions in 10% was carried out to examine whether a linear dependence of surface concentrations on changes in emissions exists.
The system was validated against surface and vertically resolved meteorological measurements. The model reproduces the daily surface concentration variability from the AQ monitoring network of Santiago. However, the model not fully captures the emissions variations inferred from the observations which may be due to missing sources such as resuspension of dust.
Results show that, during the period studied, although both residential and transportation sources contribute to observed AQ levels in Santiago, reducing transport emissions is more effective in terms of reducing the number of days with pollution events than decreasing residential combustion. This difference in impact is largely due to the spatial distribution of the emission sources. While most of the residential combustion is emitted in the outskirts of the city, most of the transport emissions occur within the city, where most of the stations from AQ monitoring network of Santiago are located. As can be expected, the largest improvement of AQ in Santiago is achieved by the combined reduction of emissions in both sectors. Sensitivity analysis with 10% reduction in transport emissions reveals a linear behavior between emissions and concentrations for NOX and approximate linear behavior for PM2.5. The absence of secondary aerosols formation and dust resuspension in the current simulation could explain this deviation from linearity for fine particles. Nevertheless, it suggests that the results can be used for mitigation policies with emissions reductions below the 50% used in this study. |
Co-construcción en proyectos de generación distribuida con energía solar: participación de la comunidad en el proyecto Ayllu Solar | Revista Estudios Avanzados | Montedonico, M.; Herrera-Neira, F.; Marconi, A.; Urquiza, A. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | | https://www.revistas.usach.cl/ojs/index.php/ideas/article/view/3397 | 4-22 | | 0718-5014 | | | Spanish | The level of participation of communities in distributed generation projects is a fundamental challenge for energy transition processes. Based on the experience of the Ayllu Solar project in the implementation of the co-construction methodology, this article debate on the participation of the communities in the development of energy projects, identifying learning and challenges. In this context, it is emphasized that for the success of the participatory processes it is necessary to have a thorough diagnosis of the territory; develop a proposal with sociocultural relevance; establish clear rules for the operation of work teams; work with organizations previously constituted, among others key aspects. In turn, it was possible to identify four types of barriers for the implementation of the Methodology in the territory: temporal, territorial, educational and sociocultural. Finally. two critical aspects were identified for the development of projects of this type: the tension caused by the existence of several understandings in the multidisciplinary teams on the scope of local participation, on the other hand, the contradictions and difficulties marked by the distrust generated by projects that are promoted local development, but based on the development of extractive industry. Both aspects pose great challenges for the participation and sustainability of this type of projects. |
Co-construction of energy solutions: Lessons learned from experiences in Chile | Energy Research & Social Science | Montedonico, M.; Herrera-Neira, F.; Marconi, A.; Urquiza, A.; Palma-Behnke, R. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.erss.2018.08.004 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214629618308351 | 173-183 | Vol: 45 | 2214-6296 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SSCI) | | English | The Energy Center has developed a co-construction methodology to address the challenges of technology transfer-based on distributed generation projects- in the context of energy transitions in isolated locations. Based on the experiences developed between 2010 and 2017, this paper analyses the process of preparing the Co-construction methodology. New tools were identified under the light of a theoretical-methodological reflection and a new version of co-construction methodology is proposed from this discussion. This learning process combines academic research and applied projects. It has provided Energy Center with an improved set of tools for current projects, and also contributed to a theoretical-methodological discussion based on new research activities. The main problems of method faced are presented during interdisciplinary work, such as: common understanding of fundamental concepts (sustainability, participation, community); the domination of one discipline over the others; the different visions of the priorities within the same project. And those problems given by the participation process under the paradox of “framing-overflowing”, where the constraints of actual projects (deadlines, budget, and specific KPIs) could limit the possibility of performing in depth diagnostics and building trust. One of the main challenges identified is that an actual impact on the overall experience is only feasible if lessons can be translated into concrete products (best practices, guidelines, tools), so can be adopted by future project developers. |
Informe final Océano y NDC | | Moraga Sariego, P.; Farías, L.; Delgado, V.; Urquiza, A.; Morales, B. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/informe_oceano_NDC.pdf | | | | | | | El Acuerdo de París sobre Cambio Climático establece como obligación para los países firmantes presentar una Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada (Nationally Determined Contributions, o NDCs) y revisarla cada cinco años. Es por esta razón que la NDC de Chile está siendo sometida a un proceso de revisión con el propósito de identificar oportunidades de actualización y refinamiento de su primera versión. El Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores, responsable de llevar a cabo esta actualización, se ha propuesto incorporar la protección y conservación del océano en dicho proceso, en conformidad con los objetivos planteados en la declaración “Because the Ocean”, así como en el “Ocean Pathway Platform” lanzado por la Presidencia de la COP23. Para ello se estableció un marco de colaboración técnica entre el Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores, el Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2 y el Centro de Derecho Ambiental (CDA) de la Facultad de Derecho de la Universidad de Chile, entre los meses de diciembre de 2017 y abril de 2018, con el objeto de generar un informe sobre la incorporación del océano en la NDC de Chile, a la luz de la agenda oceánica y en concordancia con los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sustentable (ODS). |
Onset and Evolution of Southern Annular Mode-Like Changes at Centennial Timescale | Scientific Reports | Moreno, P.; Vilanova, I.; Villa-Martínez, R.; Dunbar, R.; Mucciarone, D.; Kaplan, M.; Garreaud, R.; Rojas, M.; Moy, C.; De Pol-Holz, R.; Lambert, F. | 2018 | Agua y Extremos; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.1038/s41598-018-21836-6 | http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-21836-6 | art: 3458 | Vol: 8 Issue: 1 | 2045-2322 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) are the surface expression of geostrophic winds that encircle the southern mid-latitudes. In conjunction with the Southern Ocean, they establish a coupled system that not only controls climate in the southern third of the world, but is also closely connected to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and CO2 degassing from the deep ocean. Paradoxically, little is known about their behavior since the last ice age and relationships with mid-latitude glacier history and tropical climate variability. Here we present a lake sediment record from Chilean Patagonia (51°S) that reveals fluctuations of the low-level SWW at mid-latitudes, including strong westerlies during the Antarctic Cold Reversal, anomalously low intensity during the early Holocene, which was unfavorable for glacier growth, and strong SWW since ∼7.5 ka. We detect nine positive Southern Annular Mode-like events at centennial timescale since ∼5.8 ka that alternate with cold/wet intervals favorable for glacier expansions (Neoglaciations) in southern Patagonia. The correspondence of key features of mid-latitude atmospheric circulation with shifts in tropical climate since ∼10 ka suggests that coherent climatic shifts in these regions have driven climate change in vast sectors of the Southern Hemisphere at centennial and millennial timescales. |
Vulnerabilidad de las Mujeres Indígenas del norte de Chile frente al Cambio Climático | | ONU Mujeres | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | | https://www.cr2.cl/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ONU-Mujeres-Vulnerabilidad-mujeres-indigenas-norte-Chile-CC.pdf | | | | | | English | Este documento, elaborado en el marco del Programa “Originarias: Empoderamiento de Mujeres Indígenas del Norte de Chile para el Desarrollo Sostenible” de ONU Mujeres Chile y apoyado por Teck Resources, presenta un análisis con enfoque de género de las percepciones de riesgo y vulnerabilidad ante el cambio climático de las mujeres indígenas de la macrozona del norte de Chile, específicamente de las regiones de Tarapacá, Antofagasta y Atacama, incorporando en este análisis las condiciones actuales y poyecciones futuras del clima en esta macrozona. La Convención Marco de Naciones Unidades para el Cambio Climático en su 22a Conferencia de las Partes, reiteró su compromiso de incorporar el enfoque de género en la acción climática y los mecanismos de financiamiento, debido por una parte, a que las desigualdades de género existentes probablemente se verán exacerbadas por el cambio climático y por otra, a que la capacidad de agencia, el conocimiento y el liderazgo de las mujeres en la acción climática para la mitigación, la adaptación, el manejo de desastres y su capacidad de resiliencia, se reconocen como factores esenciales para el logro de los objetivos del Convenio. |
Chronology, stratigraphy and hydrological modelling of extensive wetlands and paleolakes in the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert during the late quaternary | Quaternary Science Reviews | Pfeiffer, M.; Latorre, C.; Santoro, C.; Gayo, E.; Rojas, R.; Carrevedo, M.; McRostie, V.; Finstad, K.; Heimsath, A.; Jungers, M.; De Pol-Holz, R.; Amundson, R. | 2018 | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.08.001 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379117310521 | 224-245 | Vol: 197 | 0277-3791 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | The halite-encrusted salt pans (salars) present at low elevations of the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert in northern Chile are unique features of one of the driest and possibly oldest deserts on Earth. Here we show that these landscapes were shallow freshwater lakes and wetlands during the last glacial period, periodically between ~46.9 ka and 7.7 ka. The moisture appears to have been sourced from increased Andean runoff and most of our chronologies for these deposits were coeval with the Central Andean Pluvial Event (17.5-14.2 ka and 13.8-9.7 ka), but we also find evidence for older as well as slightly younger wet phases. These environments supported a diverse hygrophyte vegetation, as well as an array of diatoms, ostracods and gastropods. Using a regional hydrological model, we estimate that recharge rates from 1.5 to 4 times present were required to activate and maintain these wetlands in the past. Activation in the late Pleistocene was part of a regional enhancement of water resources, extending from the Andes, downstream and through riparian corridors, to the lowest and most arid portions of the desert itself. This fundamentally unique environment was encountered by the earliest human explorers in the region, and most likely facilitated migration and encampments on a landscape that at present lacks macroscopic life on its surface. |
Simulaciones climáticas regionales | | Rojas, M.; Gallardo, L.; Bozkurt, D. | 2018 | Agua y Extremos; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | | https://cambioclimatico.mma.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Simulaciones-climaticas-regionales-2018.pdf | 27 | | | | | Spanish | El Ministerio del Medio Ambiente contrató en 2016 el presente estudio a un equipo multidisciplinario del Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2 a través de la Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas de la Universidad de Chile, el que fue desarrollado durante el año 2017. El propósito del proyecto fue generar proyecciones climáticas para Chile a través de la modelación climática a escala regional. Dicha información busca aportar a la correcta estimación de la vulnerabilidad del país, y está disponible en una plataforma interactiva que permite apoyar el diseño de políticas públicas. Este informe de síntesis presenta los resultados del análisis de los estudios de vulnerabilidad socio-ambiental del país, y plantea una propuesta conceptual y un protocolo de estandarización para este tipo de estudios, además de algunas consideraciones generales y recomendaciones basadas en la revisión de la literatura existente sobre la vulnerabilidad de distintos sectores y ámbitos territoriales y tecnológicos del país frente al cambio climático, así como las principales vulnerabilidades institucionales y brechas de conocimiento. |
Guía de referencia para la plataforma de visualización de simulaciones climáticas | | Rojas, M.; Gallardo, L.; Muñoz, F.; Valdebenito, N. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | | https://cambioclimatico.mma.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Guia-para-la-Plataforma-de-visualizacion-de-simulaciones-climaticas.pdf | 38 | | | | | Spanish | El Ministerio del Medio Ambiente contrató en 2016 el presente estudio a un equipo multidisciplinario del Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2 a través de la Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas de la Universidad de Chile, el que fue desarrollado durante el año 2017. El propósito del estudio consistió en generar información de proyecciones climáticas para Chile a través de la modelación climática a escala regional para la correcta estimación de la vulnerabilidad del país, y que, a su vez, esté disponible en una plataforma interactiva que permita apoyar el diseño de políticas públicas del país. Este informe de síntesis sirve como guía de referencia para el uso de la plataforma de visualización de simulaciones (http://simulaciones.cr2.cl). El objetivo principal de la plataforma es proveer información de proyecciones climáticas a distintas instituciones de gobierno, comunidad científica y otros actores que lo requieran. La compilación y organización de las bases de datos grillados se realiza en la plataforma de almacenamiento del (CR)2 y es accesible de forma abierta en http://simulaciones.cr2.cl/descargas. La plataforma de visualización incluye resultados de simulaciones climáticas globales y regionales, realizadas por grupos en Chile y el extranjero, así como datos observacionales en formato grillado desarrollados por el (CR)2 y otros grupos e instituciones. La plataforma genera mapas, tablas, gráficos y series de tiempo para el dominio de Sudamérica, Chile y macrozonas de Chile predefinidas, así como para polígonos o puntos definidos en forma dinámica. Las palabras claves y algunos conceptos (marcados en color rojo) se definen en la sección IV: ‘Glosario de conceptos’, en tanto que las siglas (en azul) se encuentran en la sección V: ‘Siglas y acrónimos’. Las referencias bibliográficas se listan en la sección VI: ‘Referencias Bibliográficas’. |
Marco de evaluación de la vulnerabilidad | | Rojas, M.; Gallardo, L.; Urquiza, A.; Billi, M. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | | https://cambioclimatico.mma.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Marco-de-evaluacion-de-vulnerabilidad.pdf | 30 | | | | | Spanish | El Ministerio del Medio Ambiente contrató en 2016 el presente estudio a un equipo multidisciplinario del Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2 a través de la Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas de la Universidad de Chile, el que fue desarrollado durante el año 2017. El propósito del proyecto fue generar proyecciones climáticas para Chile a través de la modelación climática a escala regional. Dicha información busca aportar a la correcta estimación de la vulnerabilidad del país, y está disponible en una plataforma interactiva que permite apoyar el diseño de políticas públicas. Este informe de síntesis presenta los resultados del análisis de los estudios de vulnerabilidad socio-ambiental del país, y plantea una propuesta conceptual y un protocolo de estandarización para este tipo de estudios, además de algunas consideraciones generales y recomendaciones basadas en la revisión de la literatura existente sobre la vulnerabilidad de distintos sectores y ámbitos territoriales y tecnológicos del país frente al cambio climático, así como las principales vulnerabilidades institucionales y brechas de conocimiento. |
The Tarapacá Declaration: A waterless people is a dead people | Chungará (Arica) | Santoro, C.; Castro, V.; Capriles, J.; Barraza, J.; Correa, J.; Marquet, P.; McRostie, V.; Gayo, E.; Latorre, C.; Valenzuela, D.; Uribe, M.; de Porras, M.; Standen, V.; Angelo, D.; Maldonado, A.; Hamamé, E.; Jofré, D. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.4067/S0717-73562018000200169 | http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-73562018000200169&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en | 0-0 | Vol: 50 Issue: 2 | 0717-7356 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SSCI) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | “The Tarapacá Declaration” draws attention to the urgent need to change how human societies have been using water in the Atacama Desert, based on a historical trajectory spanning several millennia. The Declaration, an initiative that summarizes the results of the CONICYT/PIA, Anillo project SOC1405, is oriented towards civil society and various political entities, aiming to generate technological and cultural changes to halt and mitigate the effects caused by anthropogenic activities in one of the oldest and most arid deserts in the world. In the course of the project, we established the urgent need to sensitize society to the wasteful overuse and misuse of water in the Atacama Desert, a non-renewable resource in relation to the economic scales of extraction of this element that depends, fundamentally, on fossil waters that have accumulated for millennia in the highlands of the Desert. In this way we want to avoid that this scientific knowledge is encapsulated in the universities and to echo the point made by Victoria Castro (2003): that to grow you have to educate. |
In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust climate feedbacks | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences | Shaffer, G.; Lambert, F. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1073/pnas.1708174115 | http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1708174115 | 2026-2031 | Vol: 115 Issue: 9 | 0027-8424 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access | English | Mineral dust aerosols cool Earth directly by scattering incoming solar radiation and indirectly by affecting clouds and biogeochemical cycles. Recent Earth history has featured quasi-100,000-y, glacial−interglacial climate cycles with lower/higher temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations during glacials/interglacials. Global average, glacial maxima dust levels were more than 3 times higher than during interglacials, thereby contributing to glacial cooling. However, the timing, strength, and overall role of dust−climate feedbacks over these cycles remain unclear. Here we use dust deposition data and temperature reconstructions from ice sheet, ocean sediment, and land archives to construct dust−climate relationships. Although absolute dust deposition rates vary greatly among these archives, they all exhibit striking, nonlinear increases toward coldest glacial conditions. From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial−interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system model simulations. The results of these simulations show that dust−climate feedbacks, perhaps set off by orbital forcing, push the system in and out of extreme cold conditions such as glacial maxima. Without these dust effects, glacial temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been much more stable at higher, intermediate glacial levels. The structure of residual anomalies over the glacial−interglacial climate cycles after subtraction of dust effects provides constraints for the strength and timing of other processes governing these cycles. |
Sociología económica y teoría de sistemas: Sobre La economía de la sociedad de Niklas Luhmann | Cuadernos de Teoría Social | Urquiza Gómez, A. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | | http://culturadigital.udp.cl/index.php/documento/cuaderno-de-teoria-social-n6-la-inquietud-en-los-conceptos-teoria-social-en-primera-persona/ | | Vol: 3 Issue: 6 | | | | | |
The Role of Qualitative Approaches in Developing Long-Term Strategies | World Resources Institute | Urquiza, A. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | | temporal and spatial evaluation | | | | | | | Climate change is an unprecedented global problem that forces global society to confront the unexpected consequences of its own development. It is a problem whose complexity manifests in at least three dimensions.
First, climate change encompasses many variables (atmospheric, geological, demographic, economic, etc.) with different qualities: qualitative (dichotomous or polysomic, nominal or ordinal), quantitative (discrete or continuous), intervening, moderating, independent, or dependent. Each requires the implementation of diverse strategies in different and even opposed areas.
Second, the relationships between these variables are selective, that is, when looking at the problem, it has not been feasible (and hardly ever is) to consider all the possible variables, much less to establish inclusion or exclusion criteria for them. Thus, for example, we have phenomena whose independent variables are global (such as global warming) but whose dependent variables are distributed unequally on the planet (such as local disasters). We find the same, nolens volens, for local independent variables (such as the dumping of waste in the seas) whose impacts cross national borders.
Third, climate change is a problem that manifests itself differently but simultaneously on the planet. It requires longer time horizons than those that frame economic or political decisions, as well as coordination between different sectors of the society.
In short, the dimensions in which climate change manifests the diversity of elements, the selectivity of relationships, and the differentiation in social systems, they configure it as a complex problem. (Luhmann 1986).
The accumulation of quantitative measurements of climate change has fed a rich discussion, but little progress has been made in complementing these measurements with qualitative methods of research and social intervention, which in other contexts have shown their usefulness in collecting relevant information to surmount obstacles of social coordination or lack of reflexivity. In this sense, the social sciences deserve special attention, given that they have been overlooked in the past and possess qualities that can fruitfully support the global response to climate change.
This essay will address this issue by considering the areas exposed and visualizing how these tools can contribute to the development of long-term visions that confront one of the greatest challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. |
Metalogue as a transdisciplinary collaboration tool | Cinta moebio | Urquiza, A.; Amigo, C.; Billi, M.; Brandao, G.; Morales, B. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.4067/S0717-554X2018000200182 | https://doi.org/10.4067/S0717-554X2018000200182 | 182-198 | Vol: 62 | 0717-554X | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | Spanish | Contemporary society shows an increasing demand for participatory instances able to effectively foster
the collaboration of diverse organizational, disciplinary and socio-cultural areas. The challenges intrinsic
to such participatory instancesrequire the development of methodologies that may allow for the insertion
of reflexivity within the dialogical interaction, while also promoting the collective construction of
"boundary objects": such objects, in turn, by serving as a common reference for the different perspectives
involved in the dialogue, have the potential of facilitating the future collaboration among such
perspectives. To respond to these demands -and inspired by the notion of metalogue originally introduced
by Gregory Bateson- this paper elaborates a systemic-constructivist proposal of observation and
contextual intervention, aimed at fostering reflexivity within dialogical-participatory instances by inducing
their participants to perform a second-order observation of the distinctions mobilized within the
interaction. Building upon this reflexivity, the metalogue pursues the co-construction of documents able
to coordinate the perspectives of the participants and the expectations of the structural and organizational
arrangements in which they operate. In addition to justifying and describing the technique of the
metalogue, the paper highlights some lessons learned, good practices and proposals derived from its
application in various transdisciplinary experiences in Chile. |
Participatory Energy Transitions as Boundary Objects: The Case of Chile's Energía2050 | Frontiers in Energy Research | Urquiza, A.; Amigo, C.; Billi, M.; Espinosa, P. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.3389/fenrg.2018.00134 | https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fenrg.2018.00134/full | art: 134 | Vol: 6 | 2296-598X | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | This paper analyzes the use of “participatory futures” within the context of energy transition, paying special attention to the case of Chile's long-term energy policy. Our main aim is to question the role of “participation” in such a context and particularly, to decouple the operative function of participation from its normative function. Structurally, we argue that the construction of a joint vision of desired energy futures must be understood as a deliberate attempt at governing the energy transition by way of governing the expectations of the actors and systems involved in it. Participatory approaches can promote the co-construction of such energy futures in the form of a boundary-object, able to resonate with and provide a common reference to the actors participating in its creation. On the other hand, participatory approaches can also be a way to make transitions more democratic, subjecting it to a broader influence and control from the citizenship. These two functions of “participation” are always potentially at odds with one another. Democratizing the transition, in fact, would require producing plural, dynamical imaginaries that are responsive and accountable to the public. On the contrary, the need to make transitions governable may close-up such imaginaries and narrow-down the participatory efforts to foster their normalization and acceptability on the part of the most influential actors in the self-government of the transition. To refine and exemplify our proposal, we perform a qualitative, exploratory case study of Chile's E2050 energy policy. Our findings show that “participation” may indeed have been used in the case to align partially conflicting expectations around a collectively-defined boundary object which may then act as a form of contextual, anticipatory and polycentric governance of the transition. However, from a democratic perspective, E2050 appears as a tokenization of the public in support of a pre-eminently technical and monolithic vision enacted by the Energy Ministry and the Consultative Committee. Within this context, the actual influence of the public on the policy and the possibility for political contestation are much more questionable. |
Megafires in Chile 2017: Monitoring multiscale environmental impacts of burned ecosystems | Science of The Total Environment | de la Barrera, F.; Barraza, F.; Favier, P.; Ruiz, V.; Quense, J. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.119 | http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969718317601 | 1526-1536 | Vol: 637-638 | 0048-9697 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | | English | During the summer of 2017, several megafires in South-Central Chile burned down forest plantations, native forests, shrublands and human settlements. National authorities identified the relevant effects of the wildfires on infrastructure and ecosystems. However, other indirect effects such as the risk of flooding or, increased air pollution were not assessed. The present study assesses: i) the geographic characterization of wildfires, ii) amount of damage to ecosystems and the severity of wildfires, iii) the effects of megafires on air quality in nearby and distant urban areas, and iv) identification of cities potentially exposed to landslides and flooding. We ran remote sensing analyses based on the Normalized Burn Ratio taken from Landsat imagery, “active fires” from MODIS, and ASTER GDEM. The particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) levels measured on 34 Chilean's municipalities were correlated with the burning area/distance ratio by Spearman correlation. Socionatural hazards were evaluated using multi-criteria analyses combining proximity to burned areas, severity, potential flow of water and sediments as indicated by the Digital Elevation Model, drainage networks and the location of human settlements. 91 burned areas were identified, covering 529,794 ha. The most affected ecosystems were forest plantations and native shrublands. We found significant correlations between burned area/distance ratios and PM2.5 and PM10 levels, leading to increased levels over the Chilean air quality standard in the most populated cities. 37 human settlements were at increased risk of landslides and flooding hazards after fires and eleven could now be characterized as dangerously exposed. The 2017 wildfires in Chile have had an impact at both a small and large scale, with far-reaching air pollutants dispersing and affecting >74% of the Chilean population. The impact of the wildfires was also extended over time, creating future potential for landslides and flooding, with the risk increasing in rainy seasons. |
ENSO Influence on Coastal Fog-Water Yield in the Atacama Desert, Chile | Aerosol and Air Quality Research | del Río, C.; Rivera, D.; Siegmund, A.; Wolf, N.; Cereceda, P.; Larraín, H.; Lobos, F.; Garcia, J.; Osses, P.; Zanetta, N.; Lambert, F. | 2018 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.4209/aaqr.2017.01.0022 | http://www.aaqr.org/doi/10.4209/aaqr.2017.01.0022 | 127-144 | Vol: 18 Issue: 1 | 1680-8584 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | Fog water represents an alternative, abundant and currently unexploited fresh water resource in the coastal Atacama Desert (~20°S). Here, the stratocumulus clouds meet the Coastal Cordillera, producing highly dynamic advective marine fog, a major feature of the local climate that provides water to a hyper-arid environment. One of the main issues that arises in harvesting fog water is our limited understanding of the spatial and inter-annual variability of fog clouds and their associated water content. Here we assess the role of regional-wide El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on local inter-annual fog-water yields along the coast of Atacama. We contrast 17 years of continuous fog-water data, with local and regional atmospheric and oceanographic variables to determine the link between them and the inter-annual dynamics of fog in northern Chile. Sea surface temperature (SST) in ENSO zone 1 + 2 shows significant correlations with offshore and coastal Atacama SST, as well as with local low cloud cover and fog water yields, which go beyond the annual cycle beat, exposing a potential causal link and influence of ENSO on fog along the Atacama. On the inter-annual time scale, we found that when ENSO 3 + 4 zone SST, specifically during summer, overcome a > 1°C temperature threshold, they incite significantly higher summer fog water yields and explain 79% of the fog variability. Furthermore, satellite images displaying regional extent Sc cloud and fog presence during ENSO extremes reveal higher cloud abundance during El Niño at this latitude. However, 75% of the yearly fog water is collected during winter, and does not appear to be affected in a significant manner by Pacific oscillations. Thus, our results suggest that the utilization of fog as a fresh water resource may be sustainable in the future, regardless of ENSO-induced variability in the region. |
Memoria institucional 2013 - 2017 | | | 2017 | Agua y Extremos; Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política; Zonas Costeras | | https://www.cr2.cl/memoria-institucional-cr2-2013-2017/ | | | | | | | |
Temporal evolution of main ambient PM2. 5 sources in Santiago, Chile, from 1998 to 2012 | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics | Barraza, F.; Lambert, F.; Jorquera, H.; Villalobos, A.; Gallardo, L. | 2017 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/acp-17-10093-2017 | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/10093/2017/ | 10093-10107 | Vol: 17 Issue: 16 | 1680-7324 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The inhabitants of Santiago, Chile have been exposed to harmful levels of air pollutants for decades. The city’s poor air quality is a result of steady economic growth, and stable atmospheric conditions adverse to mixing and ventilation that favor the formation of oxidants and secondary aerosols. Identifying and quantifying the sources that contribute to the ambient levels of pollutants is key for designing adequate mitigation measures. Estimating the evolution of source contributions to ambient pollution levels is also paramount to evaluating the effectiveness of pollution reduction measures that have been implemented in recent decades. Here, we quantify the main sources that have contributed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) between April 1998 and August 2012 in downtown Santiago by using two different source-receptor models (PMF 5.0 and UNMIX 6.0) that were applied to elemental measurements of 1243 24 h filter samples of ambient PM2.5. PMF resolved six sources that contributed to ambient PM2.5, with UNMIX producing similar results: motor vehicles (37.3 ± 1.1 %), industrial sources (18.5 ± 1.3 %), copper smelters (14.4 ± 0.8 %), wood burning (12.3 ± 1.0 %), coastal sources (9.5 ± 0.7 %) and urban dust (3.0 ± 1.2 %). Our results show that over the 15 years analyzed here, four of the resolved sources significantly decreased 95 % confidence interval: motor vehicles 21.3 % 2.6, 36.5, industrial sources 39.3 % 28.6, 48.4, copper smelters 81.5 % 75.5, 85.9, and coastal sources 58.9 % 38.5, 72.5, while wood burning did not significantly change and urban dust increased by 72 % 48.9, 99.9. These changes are consistent with emission reduction measures, such as improved vehicle emission standards, cleaner smelting technology, introduction of low-sulfur diesel for vehicles and natural gas for industrial processes, public transport improvements, etc. However, it is also apparent that the mitigation expected from the above regulations has been partially offset by the increasing amount of private vehicle use in the city, with motor vehicles becoming the dominant source of ambient PM2.5 in recent years. Consequently, Santiago still experiences ambient PM2.5 levels above the annual and 24 h Chilean and World Health Organization standards, and further regulations are required to reach ambient air quality standards |
Comunicación ambiental y proyectos energéticos renovables no convencionales. Análisis de contenido en medios de comunicación de masa chilenos | Revista Latina de Comunicación Social | Billi, M.; Urquiza Gómez, A.; Feres Klenner, C. | 2017 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.4185/RLCS-2017-1216 | http://www.revistalatinacs.org/072paper/1216/66es.html | 1218-1237 | Vol: 72 | 1138-5820 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | All Open Access; Bronze Open Access | Spanish | ntroduction. We observe how mass media thematise Non-Conventional Renewable Energy projects [NCRE] in terms of relevance and treatment assigned to distinct sources and emerging thematic structures. Methodology. Mixed-approach content analysis of a sample of 100 Chilean digital press articles relating to NCRE, using the analytical framework of Niklas Luhmann’s Social Systems Theory. Results and Discussion. The predominance of solar and wind sources goes hand in hand with a low terminological clarity, which however allows mass media to build distinct thematic structures around social systems such as economy, science, politics and law. Environmental references are less frequent and shallower, privileging its evocative aspects with maximum linkage capacity. Conclusions. Instead than observing mass media as mere transmitters of rationalities external to them, more attention should be given to their ability to create realities and representing the (human and ecological) environment. |
The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments | Geoscientific Model Development | Kageyama, M.; Albani, S.; Braconnot, P.; Harrison, S.; Hopcroft, P.; Ivanovic, R.; Lambert, F.; Marti, O.; Peltier, W.; Peterschmitt, J.; Roche, D.; Tarasov, L.; Zhang, X.; Brady, E.; Haywood, A.; LeGrande, A.; Lunt, D.; Mahowald, N.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Nisancioglu, K.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Renssen, H.... | 2017 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017 | https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/4035/2017/ | 4035-4055 | Vol: 10 Issue: 11 | 1991-9603 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM. |
The pre-Columbian introduction and dispersal of Algarrobo (Prosopis, Section Algarobia) in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile | PLOS ONE | McRostie, V.; Gayo, E.; Santoro, C.; De Pol-Holz, R.; Latorre, C. | 2017 | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1371/journal.pone.0181759 | http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0181759 | e0181759 | Vol: 12 Issue: 7 | 1932-6203 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Archaeological and palaeoecological studies throughout the Americas have documented widespread landscape and environmental transformation during the pre-Columbian era. The highly dynamic Formative (or Neolithic) period in northern Chile (ca. 3700–1550 yr BP) brought about the local establishment of agriculture, introduction of new crops (maize, quinoa, manioc, beans, etc.) along with a major population increase, new emergent villages and technological innovations. Even trees such as the Algarrobos (Prosopis section Algarobia) may have been part of this transformation. Here, we provide evidence that these species were not native to the Atacama Desert of Chile (18–27S), appearing only in the late Holocene and most likely due to human actions. We assembled a database composed of 41 taxon specific AMS radiocarbon dates from archaeobotanical and palaeoecological records (rodent middens, leaf litter deposits), as well an extensive bibliographical review comprising archaeobotanical, paleoecological, phylogenetic and taxonomic data to evaluate the chronology of introduction and dispersal of these trees. Although Algarrobos could have appeared as early as 4200 yr BP in northernmost Chile, they only became common throughout the Atacama over a thousand years later, during and after the Formative period. Cultural and natural factors likely contributed to its spread and consolidation as a major silvicultural resource. |
The Dry Puna as an ecological megapatch and the peopling of South America: Technology, mobility, and the development of a late Pleistocene/early Holocene Andean hunter-gatherer tradition in northern Chile | Quaternary International | Osorio, D.; Steele, J.; Sepúlveda, M.; Gayo, E.; Capriles, J.; Herrera, K.; Ugalde, P.; De Pol-Holz, R.; Latorre, C.; Santoro, C. | 2017 | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.quaint.2017.07.010 | https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1040618216312368 | 41-53 | Vol: 461 | 10406182 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Green Open Access | English | Current scientific evidence shows that humans colonized South America at least 15,000 years ago, but there are still many unknown aspects of this process, including the major and minor migratory routes involved, and the pattern of successive occupation of a diverse continental mosaic of ecosystems. In this context, the role of the Andean highlands ( 3400 meters above sea level) has been neglected, because of the supposedly harsh conditions for humans including hypoxia and cold climate. Nevertheless, the environmental and cultural resources available in the high Andes constitutes an important “megapatch” that should be assessed in terms of human settlement patterns. We review the evidence for late Pleistocene/early Holocene hunter-gatherer occupation of one part of this megapatch, the northern Chilean Dry Puna, in its palaeoecological context. We focus on lithic technology, faunal remains, radiocarbon dates, and other archaeological materials related to different social activities, which allow us to suggest that groups of hunter-gatherers organized and adapted their way of life to highland ecosystems through logistical mobility, and curatorial strategies for lithic tool kits that included projectile points and other formalized tools. The morphology and technological processes involved are recognized over vast territories along the high Andes. We identify this material expression as the high south central Andean Archaic hunter-gatherer tradition, which also featured long distance mobile settlement systems and communication processes over this broad and distinct megapatch. More speculatively, we outline the hypothesis that these highland ecosystems constituted a suitable migratory route that may have been key for the early peopling of the continent, and contrast it with the alternative hypothesis of the initially secondary and seasonally intermittent exploitation of this habitat by hunter-gatherers dispersing along the Pacific coastal corridor. |
Loco or no Loco? Holocene Climatic Fluctuations, Human Demography, and Community Based Management of Coastal Resources in Northern Chile | Frontiers in Earth Science | Santoro, C.; Gayo, E.; Carter, C.; Standen, V.; Castro, V.; Valenzuela, D.; De Pol-Holz, R.; Marquet, P.; Latorre, C. | 2017 | Cambio de Uso de Suelo; Ciudades Resilientes | 10.3389/feart.2017.00077 | http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/feart.2017.00077/full | na | Vol: 5 | 2296-6463 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE) | All Open Access; Gold Open Access | English | The abundance of the southern Pacific mollusk loco (Concholepas concholepas), among other conspicuous marine supplies, are often cited as critical resources behind the long-term cultural and demographic fluctuations of prehistoric hunter-gatherers in the coastal Atacama Desert. These societies inhabited one of the world’s most productive marine environments flanked by one the world’s driest deserts. Both of these environments have witnessed significant ecological variation since people first colonized themat the end of the Pleistocene (c. 13,000 cal yr BP). Here, we examine the relationship between the relative abundance of shellfish (a staple resource) along a 9,500-year sequence of archeological shell midden accumulations at Caleta (a small inlet or cove) Vitor, with past demographic trends (established via summed probability distributions of radiocarbon ages) and technological innovations together with paleoceanographic data on past primary productivity. We find that shellfish extraction varied considerably from one cultural period to the next in terms of the number of species and their abundance, with diversity increasing during periods of regionally decreased productivity. Such shifts in consumption patterns are considered community based management decisions, and for the most part they were synchronous with large and unusual regional demographic fluctuations experienced by prehistoric coastal societies in northern Chile. When taken together with their technological innovations, our data illustrates how these human groups tailored their socio-cultural patterns to what were often abrupt and prolonged environmental changes throughout the Holocene. |
Applying a distinction. A systemic-constructivist program for qualitative social science research; [Aplicar una distinción. Un programa sistémicoconstructivista para la investigación social cualitativa] | Revista Mad | Urquiza, A.; Billi, M.; Leal, T. | 2017 | Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política | 10.5354/0718-0527.2017.47269 | https://revistamad.uchile.cl/index.php/RMAD/article/view/47269/49293 | 21-53 | Vol: - Issue: 37 | 07180527 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | | Spanish | At least since the XVIII century, the 'problem of induction', that is, how to justify the abstractions derived from any empirical observation, has been at the core of a fiery debate both within the philosophy of science, and the praxis of social sciences. Refuting the allegation of 'empirical closure' raised against Niklas Luhmann's Social Systems Theory, we claim that it delivers a privileged epistemological and theoretical platform to face such a dilemma, since it highlights the necessary conditions to produce an 'abductive' reasoning. By way of discussing, on the one hand, Luhmann's understanding of knowledge and science, and on the other, diverse attempts to apply empirically the understand the role and relationships of the principles of theoretical plausibility and empirical grounding within social science research. Based on that, the article identifies the criteria of 'isomorphism', 'perspectivism', transparency' and 'iterability' as indicators of scientific acceptability of a systemic-constructivist research, and offers orientations for the design of such a research. © CC BY-NC 3.0 CL. |
Applying a distinction. A systemic-constructivist program for qualitative social science research; [Aplicar una distinción. Un programa sistémicoconstructivista para la investigación social cualitativa] | Revista Mad | Urquiza, A.; Billi, M.; Leal, T. | 2017 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.5354/0719-0527.2017.47269 | https://revistamad.uchile.cl/index.php/RMAD/article/view/47269 | 21-53 | Issue: 37 | 0718-0527 | Thomson Reuters ISI (ESCI) | | Spanish | Por lo menos desde el siglo XVIII, el ‘problema de la inducción’, es decir de cómo justificar las abstracciones que se hacen a partir de la observación empírica, ha estado al centro de un encendido debate tanto en la filosofía de la ciencia, como en la praxis de las ciencias sociales. Rechazando las acusaciones de ‘clausura empírica’ levantadas respecto de la Teoría de Sistemas Sociales de Niklas Luhmann, afirmamos por el contrario que esta proporciona una plataforma epistemológica y teórica privilegiada para hacer frente al citado dilema, explicitando las condiciones para producir un razonamiento de tipo ‘abductivo’. Dialogando, por un lado, con la comprensión de Luhmann respecto del conocimiento y de la ciencia, y por el otro, con diversos intentos para aplicar empíricamente la propuesta sistémica e integrarla con otros enfoques analíticos, el presente paper ofrece un modelo general para comprender el rol y la relación de los principios de plausibilidad teórica y fundamentación empírica en la investigación social. A partir de ello, el artículo identifica los criterios de ‘isomorfismo’, ‘perspectivismo’, ‘transparencia’ e ‘iterabilidad’ como indicadores de aceptabilidad científica de una investigación sistémico-constructivista, y ofrece orientaciones para el diseño de un proceso de investigación de este tipo. |
The effect of climate change on electricity expenditures in Massachusetts | Energy Policy | Véliz, K.; Kaufmann, R.; Cleveland, C.; Stoner, A. | 2017 | Ciudades Resilientes | 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.03.016 | http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S030142151730157X | 1-11 | Vol: 106 | 0301-4215 | Thomson Reuters ISI (SCIE; SSCI) | | English | Climate change affects consumer expenditures by altering the consumption of and price for electricity. Previous analyses focus solely on the former, which implicitly assumes that climate-induced changes in consumption do not affect price. But this assumption is untenable because a shift in demand alters quantity and price at equilibrium. Here we present the first empirical estimates for the effect of climate change on electricity prices. Translated through the merit order dispatch of existing capacity for generating electricity, climate-induced changes in daily and monthly patterns of electricity consumption cause non-linear changes in electricity prices. A 2 °C increase in global mean temperature increases the prices for and consumption of electricity in Massachusetts USA, such that the average household’s annual expenditures on electricity increase by about 12%. Commercial customers incur a 9% increase. These increases are caused largely by higher prices for electricity, whose impacts on expenditures are 1.3 and 3.6 fold larger than changes in residential and commercial consumption, respectively. This suggests that previous empirical studies understate the effects of climate change on electricity expenditures and that policy may be needed to ensure that the market generates investments in peaking capacity to satisfy climate-driven changes in summer-time consumption. |